Ireland are the form favourites for the 6Nations

First topic message reminder :

With England's form bubble well and truly burst by the recent Euro match ups and their injury list resulting in a fracture to the squads integrity, it now has to be obvious that the better top down Irish organisation places them in pole position.
You're only as good as your last game and anyone who honestly analysed our win over Ozy knows much luck was expended that day, but realistically the game was considerably closer than score board suggested.
In the bigger picture the envelope of our current development has been reached and changes will result during and after this tournament. Hartley will fall as will others and our over reliance on forward domination above the ability to attack with pace and skill from deep and wide out. Brown will go and the backs will be challenged to deliver and lead our structure.
The dominance of Saracens has been the bell weather to this English revival and now, as is obvious to all, they like England are in transition to be able to progress and challenge further.
So the Irish will have this tournament, but if EJ knows his onions he'll allow bruised bodies to mend and will take an A/B squad away this summer and then start a fresh and beat the AB's in the autumn.

Sin é wrote:

marty2086 wrote:So because Munster fans are ok with it the brand globally isn't diminished?

No. Why should it be. Its not like GG was caught taking drugs in Munster had not served his time. He played in France for a year and no one took any notice of him.

The plot thickens.......................

They didn't think too much about pharmacy store raids either as I recall.

Sin é wrote:

marty2086 wrote:So because Munster fans are ok with it the brand globally isn't diminished?

No. Why should it be. Its not like GG was caught taking drugs in Munster had not served his time. He played in France for a year and no one took any notice of him.

So cheating is ok if its done elsewhere?

What does him playing in France have to do within anything? How does him playing in France contradict an Irish zero tolerance policy?

Collapse2005 wrote:

Sin é wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

eirebilly wrote:

SecretFly wrote:
ROG turned Sexton into a world class 10?  He nearly broke the poor basterde and we had to send in the Marines to take him off ROG before too much damage was done.  I think Sexton is still probably mentally traumatised by his time there.  The horror!  The horror!..............  

Just going by what Sexton has said himself and from the performances Sexton has put in after leaving Racing. Always a very good 10 but after his time at Racing under ROG he got far better in his tactical kicking and game management.

So yes, I do believe that ROG helped Sexton to be come one of the best 10's in rugby.

Its like I said. Munster fans have this wonderful ability to trace anything good about Leinster back to Munster. The imagination is something to behold.

You don't need any imagination to figure out that Leinster would still be a crowd of ladyboy showponys without the motivation Munster has given them as the darlings of Irish rugby.

Haha you have got to love it. There are lots of people that actually believe this.

If that logic were true, why have Munster been so far behind Leinster for the last 10 years. Does your "motivation" theory only work the other way round?

Does this mean Munster are now the lady boys of Irish rugby?

Does singing stand up and fight in the dressing room after each game preclude Munster from being considered a bit soft?

Have Munster been that far behind Leinster? Only club in Europe to reach the QFs of HCup/Champs Cup 17 times. Have won I think 10 more games in Europe than any other club with half the resources that Leinster has. Top 4 in Europe last season? In the QFs again this year with a home QF?

marty2086 wrote:

Sin é wrote:

marty2086 wrote:So because Munster fans are ok with it the brand globally isn't diminished?

No. Why should it be. Its not like GG was caught taking drugs in Munster had not served his time. He played in France for a year and no one took any notice of him.

So cheating is ok if its done elsewhere?

What does him playing in France have to do within anything? How does him playing in France contradict an Irish zero tolerance policy?

He did his time. No one was banging on about him joining Racing.

No one has defined what Irish zero tolerance is, so its open to interpretation.

Sin é wrote:

marty2086 wrote:

Sin é wrote:

marty2086 wrote:So because Munster fans are ok with it the brand globally isn't diminished?

No. Why should it be. Its not like GG was caught taking drugs in Munster had not served his time. He played in France for a year and no one took any notice of him.

So cheating is ok if its done elsewhere?

What does him playing in France have to do within anything? How does him playing in France contradict an Irish zero tolerance policy?

He did his time. No one was banging on about him joining Racing.

No one has defined what Irish zero tolerance is, so its open to interpretation.

Do Racing have a zero tolerance policy?

Zero tolerance means no tolerance for something, it's usually self explanatory

Sin é wrote:

Have Munster been that far behind Leinster? Only club in Europe to reach the QFs of HCup/Champs Cup 17 times. Have won I think 10 more games in Europe than any other club with half the resources that Leinster has. Top 4 in Europe last season? In the QFs again this year with a home QF?

Yes Munster are that far behind.

Leinster have won four European finals from four in the last 10 years (one Amlin). Munster haven't even been in one.
Domestically Munster have won 1 pro 12 final in the last 8 years since the first final and have been in the final 3 times. Leinster have been in 6 finals, two wins. That's 6 trophies to 1.
Head to head in the last 20 games Leinster have won 13 including a spanking in Thomond park recently with a Leinster B side.

If anything the gap is growing. Does that mean they are the lady boys of Irish rugby?

So does everyone agree Ireland are 6N favourites?
The number of English injuries and suspension was so predictable.
Surely the question is will Ireland take a Grand Slam?

kingelderfield wrote:So does everyone agree Ireland are 6N favourites?
The number of English injuries and suspension was so predictable.
Surely the question is will Ireland take a Grand Slam?

Bookies don't think so, kingelderfield. I guess they have the finger on the pulse of what most people are thinking. England favourites ... and a home final if they need one.

Bookies odds only reflect betting patterns. England's depth is on the rehab bench and so this not the same england as 12 months ago.

kingelderfield wrote:Bookies odds only reflect betting patterns. England's depth is on the rehab bench and so this not the same england as 12 months ago.

If England win, it will certainly be a coaching job for the ages.
The Props will be Dan Cole and.............who? Fat Bast**d?
The back row will be Moe, Larry, and Curly (look 'em up if you don't know who they are).
The outside centre will be Mr. Bean, FFS.
Thank goodness we have Phil Vickery to cover George Ford when a precious hair goes out of place.
England are bung holed.

England have home advantage which counts for a lot statistically. That said the England Lions have far more minutes played than the Irish and aren't looking as well in European competition. Who knows really?

The real issue here is that there are too many Leinster players in the squad.

Is Wayne Barnes reffing Ireland vs Wales?

marty2086 wrote:

Sin é wrote:

marty2086 wrote:So because Munster fans are ok with it the brand globally isn't diminished?

No. Why should it be. Its not like GG was caught taking drugs in Munster had not served his time. He played in France for a year and no one took any notice of him.

So cheating is ok if its done elsewhere?

What does him playing in France have to do within anything? How does him playing in France contradict an Irish zero tolerance policy?

He served his sentence.

No one got their knickers in a twist with him playing for Racing having served his ban.
We don't know what the zero tolerance policy entails.

mikey_dragon wrote:Is Wayne Barnes reffing Ireland vs Wales?

Incredibly no. However, on two occasions in the past he has stepped in at late notice as the appointed ref has pulled out.

Wtf is this thread about. Is it Leinster? Yes they currently look unstoppable. Is there a gap with Munster - absolutely ( but you wouldn’t write Munster off in a once off meeting.

Do Ireland have too many Leinster players - who cares as long as Ireland do the business. If they don’t it will be three poor 6ns in a row along with a poor wc.

Three poor 6 Nations in a row along with a poor WC sounds like Ireland alright.

2nd and 3rd isnt what want but it isnt exactly poor. In any game we lost we were very competitive and lost by small margins.

Scotland for the win according to Oracle rugby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61Kv4yAdbf4

profitius wrote:Scotland for the win according to Oracle rugby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61Kv4yAdbf4

Not a bad bet, I fancy them to be in the top 2 anyway.

Townsend is a fantastic coach, they have one of the best starting XVs in the competition and should be freshest out of the home nations having supplied so few Lions and with a point to prove.

I had them to win last year. I think Ireland will win this year and Scotland will lose to Wales but beat England.

This is getting on for either an epic to outdo all other epics, with Townsend taking the spoils in the 6N when the competition hold the 2nd and 3rd highest ranked sides in the world (an uncommon quality for the 6N).  So he'll have his champagne moment to probably beat all 6N champagne moments if he pulls this off.

Or................. it's going to be a very raw, very public and quite sobering kick in the guts that will tell Townsend JUST how different real Competition driven International rugby is in coaching terms to club.  

The papers and media everywhere are full of this narrative about Scottish emergence from their 'dark horse' period into a state of being real certified contenders.  So no pressure on Townsend and his players at all...  
- so all the expectations of great things are running all down Townsend's channel, whether he's inwardly comfortable with that growing pressure or not.

Europe expects - and the name of the side they expect most frieworks from is Scotland.

Please stop bigging Scotland up - you're ruining everything!

rodders wrote:

profitius wrote:Scotland for the win according to Oracle rugby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61Kv4yAdbf4

Not a bad bet, I fancy them to be in the top 2 anyway.

Townsend is a fantastic coach, they have one of the best starting XVs in the competition and should be freshest out of the home nations having supplied so few Lions and with a point to prove.

They have like a 3rd choice front row fit ?

And their 1st choice just about gets parity..

munkian wrote:

rodders wrote:

profitius wrote:Scotland for the win according to Oracle rugby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61Kv4yAdbf4

Not a bad bet, I fancy them to be in the top 2 anyway.

Townsend is a fantastic coach, they have one of the best starting XVs in the competition and should be freshest out of the home nations having supplied so few Lions and with a point to prove.

They have like a 3rd choice front row fit ?

And their 1st choice just about gets parity..

We're not worried yet about numbers and things.
We'll see how you handle them first, and then we'll work out which bits of their 3rd choice might be more problematic than their 1st choice Give them a good workout and we'll write down our notes...

I think Scotland's defence is too frail for them to win the 6 nations.

12 tries conceded in the AIs compared to England's 3.... yes I know Scotland played NZ but still...

They played 2 of the same teams.

If Scotland can shore up their defence.... well it's a different story but it's a big if.

It's a Scottish problem. Glasgow conceded the 2nd most amount of tries in the ERCC.

beshocked wrote:I think Scotland's defence is too frail for them to win the 6 nations.

12 tries conceded in the AIs compared to England's 3.... yes I know Scotland played NZ but still...

They played 2 of the same teams.

If Scotland can shore up their defence.... well it's a different story but it's a big if.

It's a Scottish problem. Glasgow conceded the 2nd most amount of tries in the ERCC.

That's the sort of game they play though. They also score lots of tries. I think they are going to beat England.

21-61 to a win seems unlikely.

[quote=beshocked]I think Scotland's defence is too frail for them to win the 6 nations.

12 tries conceded in the AIs compared to England's 3.... yes I know Scotland played NZ but still...

They played 2 of the same teams.

If Scotland can shore up their defence.... well it's a different story but it's a big if.

It's a Scottish problem. Glasgow conceded the 2nd most amount of tries in the ERCC.[/quote]


Scotland's defence isn't bad, we just don't have the physicality to counter the sort of direct, physical and attritional styles that typically France, England and Samoa (where we shipped the most tries in the AI) play with.

Defending doesn't bother me too much, since our attack is absolutely scintillating. I hear a lot of chat on rugby forums and TV pundits talking about how hard it is to unlock defences, that's not something we have struggled with having Scored more than 3 tries in our last 12 out of 14 tests with only France and Wales keeping us at bay.

Defending is something that can always be worked on in time, hence why I think we'll win some games this year, but next year is where I think we will have a solid defensive structure in place to match the brilliant attacking game. We are contenders this year, but I seriously doubt we'll win the championship.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

beshocked wrote:I think Scotland's defence is too frail for them to win the 6 nations.

12 tries conceded in the AIs compared to England's 3.... yes I know Scotland played NZ but still...

They played 2 of the same teams.

If Scotland can shore up their defence.... well it's a different story but it's a big if.

It's a Scottish problem. Glasgow conceded the 2nd most amount of tries in the ERCC.

That's the sort of game they play though. They also score lots of tries. I think they are going to beat England.

I think it depends on the weather. If it's a wet day and becomes a forward-dominated game, then Scotland's inexperienced front row will cost them.

If it's a fine day and the ground is good for running rugby, then Scotland have a chance to draw England in to a wide open running game - and the result becomes much more open. But don't forget that England have shown the ability to play that game, too - against Australia on the 2016 tour, and against Scotland themselves last year - and their record of stopping tries is better than Scotland's.

Scottrf wrote:21-61 to a win seems unlikely.

To some people maybe. In 2003 England hammered Ireland 42-6 in Lansdowne to win the GS and the RWC later in the year. In 2004 Ireland beat England in Twickenham.

Stranger things have happened.

Poorfour wrote:
I think it depends on the weather. If it's a wet day and becomes a forward-dominated game, then Scotland's inexperienced front row will cost them.

If it's a fine day and the ground is good for running rugby, then Scotland have a chance to draw England in to a wide open running game - and the result becomes much more open. But don't forget that England have shown the ability to play that game, too - against Australia on the 2016 tour, and against Scotland themselves last year - and their record of stopping tries is better than Scotland's.

That's all true but away wins are becoming harder and harder even against Scotland.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:21-61 to a win seems unlikely.

To some people maybe. In 2003 England hammered Ireland 42-6 in Lansdowne to win the GS and the RWC later in the year. In 2004 Ireland beat England in Twickenham.

Stranger things have happened.

Okay but has happened before doesn't mean it isn't unlikely. England have been doing fine on the away wins.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

beshocked wrote:I think Scotland's defence is too frail for them to win the 6 nations.

12 tries conceded in the AIs compared to England's 3.... yes I know Scotland played NZ but still...

They played 2 of the same teams.

If Scotland can shore up their defence.... well it's a different story but it's a big if.

It's a Scottish problem. Glasgow conceded the 2nd most amount of tries in the ERCC.

Scotland's defence isn't bad, we just don't have the physicality to counter the sort of direct, physical and attritional styles that typically France, England and Samoa (where we shipped the most tries in the AI) play with.

Defending doesn't bother me too much, since our attack is absolutely scintillating. I hear a lot of chat on rugby forums and TV pundits talking about how hard it is to unlock defences, that's not something we have struggled with having Scored more than 3 tries in our last 12 out of 14 tests with only France and Wales keeping us at bay.

Defending is something that can always be worked on in time, hence why I think we'll win some games this year, but next year is where I think we will have a solid defensive structure in place to match the brilliant attacking game. We are contenders this year, but I seriously doubt we'll win the championship.

Look I don't want to be negative about Scotland. Your attacking game is excellent. You've become an entertaining team to watch.

True physicality is a problem and Scotland need to sort that out because other teams will work out that Scottish weakness and utilise it themselves.

England and Ireland are the teams, Scotland is trying to chase down (of course NZ too but I am talking about 6 nations).

England are much harder to score points against.

Your defence is bad if you compare it to England's which I have.

England have aspects they need to work on too. No team can rest on their laurels as other teams are constantly looking to knock them down.

Engine#4 wrote:England have home advantage which counts for a lot statistically. That said the England Lions have far more minutes played than the Irish and aren't looking as well in European competition. Who knows really?

Pretty much plus Ireland's record at HQ is as wretched as ours is in Dublin. 08 was the last win there?

beshocked wrote:

Look I don't want to be negative about Scotland. Your attacking game is excellent. You've become an entertaining team to watch.

True physicality is a problem and Scotland need to sort that out because other teams will work out that Scottish weakness and utilise it themselves.

England and Ireland are the teams, Scotland is trying to chase down (of course NZ too but I am talking about 6 nations).

England are much harder to score points against.

Your defence is bad if you compare it to England's which I have.

England have aspects they need to work on too. No team can rest on their laurels as other teams are constantly looking to knock them down.

True enough, but we still managed to score 3 tries against both teams in our last match. Granted England scored a lot more, but as has been done to death it was a fabulous bit of coaching by Jones and his team to spot the blip in the defensive system and exploit it ruthlessly. Let's also remmember that in the England game we lost our first choice fullback, then a winger, and his replacement in the first half and ended up with a 5ft6 fly half at full back who was put into ariel battles with Daly and Watson pretty much all game long. These aren't excuses, but they are the mitigating factores in the humiliation at Twickenham.

No other team (not even New Zealand) has beaten us like that in 2 years, it was a defensive anomaly.

Scottrf wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:21-61 to a win seems unlikely.

To some people maybe. In 2003 England hammered Ireland 42-6 in Lansdowne to win the GS and the RWC later in the year. In 2004 Ireland beat England in Twickenham.

Stranger things have happened.

Okay but has happened before doesn't mean it isn't unlikely. England have been doing fine on the away wins.

Yes they have but Scotland have got stronger and I sense that England may be plateauing.

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:

GunsGermsV2 wrote:

Scottrf wrote:21-61 to a win seems unlikely.

To some people maybe. In 2003 England hammered Ireland 42-6 in Lansdowne to win the GS and the RWC later in the year. In 2004 Ireland beat England in Twickenham.

Stranger things have happened.

Okay but has happened before doesn't mean it isn't unlikely. England have been doing fine on the away wins.

Yes they have but Scotland have got stronger and I sense that England may be plateauing.

The evidence to which would be?

A few unreliable indicators but lets face it any prediction of future form is guess work for all of us.

Form in European rugby (previous England success coincided with strength of Saracens)
First loss in the 6 nations last year
Long injury list
England is approaching peak Eddie Jones. He tends not to last longer than a few years before a fall out.
Most teams experience peaks and troughs.

I think that's fair and would agree, unless we see evidence to this contrary this 6N.

I think we are more likely to lose a game than win the GS, but would have us favourites in each game.

Jones's 1st year in charge we were incredibly lucky on the injury front which effectively artificially raised our level of play, because everyone else still had the usual problems. We also had Billy and 'on his day' he really makes a huge difference.

I think we are still on an upwards curve but the rate of improvement is probably less. Not long now til we find out for real.

I think France will turn Ireland over this weekend.

TightHEAD wrote:I think France will turn Ireland over this weekend.

I wouldn't bet against it. Ireland always struggle in Paris. Very few wins there in the 6 nations.

That said though apparently France have norovirus and are due to pick a very inexperienced side in their first game under a new coach.

They also won only a few games last year and were by and large dreadful.

Ill be at the game so hopeful for a decent win.

TightHEAD wrote:I think France will turn Ireland over this weekend.

Technically astute contribution there, Tight. I agree. France will turn us over a few times. But the majority of turn overs will be ours.

France have picked 19 years old Mattieu Jalibert at 10 for this match.

France (v Ireland): 15 Geoffrey Palis, 14 Teddy Thomas, 13 Remi Lamerat, 12 Henry Chavancy, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Machenaud; 8 Kevin Gourdon, 7 Yacouba Camara, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Sebastien Vahaamahina, 4 Arthur Iturria, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (cap), 1 Jefferson Poirot

Replacements: 16 Adrien Pelissie, 17 Dany Priso, 18 Cedate Gomes Sa, 19 Paul Gabrillagues, 20 Marco Tauleigne, 21 Antoine Dupont, 22 Anthony Belleau, 23 Benjamin Fall

How can anyone have them favourites against Ireland?

Its a real patchwork side IMO. France first game up in Paris though, you never know.

Jailbait at 10. To English speaking ears they do come out with some great surnames.

15. Rob Kearney
14. Keith Earls
13. Robbie Henshaw
12. Bundee Aki
11. Jacob Stockdale
10. Johnny Sexton
9. Conor Murray

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best (captain)
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. James Ryan
5. Iain Henderson
6. Peter O’Mahony
7. Josh van der Flier
8. CJ Stander

Replacements:

16. Sean Cronin
17. Jack McGrath
18. John Ryan
19. Devin Toner
20. Dan Leavy
21. Luke McGrath
22. Joey Carbery
23. Fergus McFadden