England vs Australia - 4th Quilter International

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Date: Saturday 24th November 2018
Time: 15:00
Location: Twickenham Stadium

Referee:       Jaco Peyper (SA)
Assistant 1:  Glen Jackson (NZ)
Assistant 2:  Alexandre Ruiz (Fr)
TMO:            Marius Jonker (SA)




Form


17th November England 35-15 Japan
10th November England 15-16 New Zealand
03rd November England 12-11 South Africa

17th November Italy 7-26 Australia 
10th November Wales 9-6 Australia
27th October Australia 20-37 New Zealand




Teams


England

Starting XV:
15. Elliot Daly (Wasps, 24 caps), 14. Joe Cokanasiga (Bath Rugby, 1 cap), 13. Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs, 16 caps), 12. Ben Te’o (Worcester Warriors, 15 caps), 11. Jonny May (Leicester Tigers, 39 caps), 10. Owen Farrell (Saracens, 64 caps) co-captain, 9. Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers, 79 caps), 1. Ben Moon (Exeter Chiefs, 3 caps), 2. Jamie George (Saracens, 31 caps), 3. Kyle Sinckler (Harlequins, 16 caps), 4. Maro Itoje (Saracens, 25 caps), 5. Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints, 67 caps), 6. Brad Shields (Wasps, 4 caps), 7. Sam Underhill (Bath Rugby, 8 caps), 8. Mark Wilson (Newcastle Falcons, 7 caps).

Finishers:
16. Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints, 96 caps) co-captain, 17. Alec Hepburn (Exeter Chiefs, 5 caps), 18. Harry Williams (Exeter Chiefs, 14 caps), 19. Charlie Ewels (Bath Rugby, 9 caps), 20. Nathan Hughes (Wasps, 17 caps), 21. Richard Wigglesworth (Saracens, 32 caps), 22. George Ford (Leicester Tigers, 50 caps), 23. Manu Tuilagi (Leicester Tigers, 26 caps).


Australia


TBC

Launchbury moving towards 'old guard' territory is making me feel old and sentimental. It hardly feels like yesterday that he came on the scene. Lawes is nearly 30 too! I can remember him in the U20's desperately hoping he would put and weight/muscle and become our close quarters lock.

Picking up from a thought earlier, I guess this is why English fans of a certain age are always looking for the next youngster. The post 2003 era was somewhat of a wasteland with seemingly nobody coming through to change it.

Jeez yea I remember the excitement of these new young guys like Lawes, Youngs and Marler amongst others tore up the u20's.

2004-2008 was a real rough patch. The best young  players to come out of it were Tait and Flood. Most of the rest were dross. Obv others like Ellis and Simpson Daniel  never really got a chance.

Just remembered that Haskell burst onto the scene in 06 and Stephen Jones called for him to go to thw RWC in stead of Dallaglio. Instead he was snubbed and moved to france then NZ and we lost out for a time.

Friends with kids who have been through the Academy system tell me that there are effectively two lost generations of players - the ones from the 2004-2008 era came through a very inconsistent system into a professional team that was stymied by the lack of an agreement between clubs and the RFU. The generation after that made the transition more effectively but in spite of the system rather than because of it.

Since 2011 we've been producing a much more consistent standard of player - but it also feels like there's another step up to happen in terms of producing players who think about the game in the right way and can make good decisions. London Irish (of all teams) look to be doing some exciting stuff in that area, based on stuff that was pioneered with the U18s a couple of years ago.

LondonTiger wrote:England do not have a preferred choice at 6 since Robshaw was dropped.

By getting a run of games, Wilson has been able to demonstrate that he can play international rugby to a good enough standard to be a genuine contender. His versatility means that his chances of making squads is even higher.

None of us know what Eddie will do for the 6Ns, but right now and even ignoring the injuries Wilson is more likely to be in the squad than not in it.

There will probably be 6 spots, and if all fit I see the chances of making it being:

Vunipola 100%
Shields, Underhill, Wilson 90%
Hughes 70%
Curry 60%
Mercer, Robshaw 50%

I take your wider point, but as Vunipola is in every squad, and Hughes and Mercer add up to 120%, what you're saying is if you picked the squad 10 times, 2 of them (at least) would have Vunipola, Hughes and Mercer. At least one of which would also have Wilson. I don't think we'll ever have that many 8 options.

The questions you have to ask are: "Who are your 4 flankers?" Underhill makes it every time for me as number 1. Wilson and Shields are pretty close behind him in 2 and 3, and then it's just a question of who is your 4th choice, Robshaw or Curry. Robshaw has the experience, Curry is a more natural 7 which you're missing in the squad as picked so far. I'd say they're about 50/50. There's a small chance you pick both and Shields or Wilson miss out. I can't see a situation where we pick Wilson, Shields, Robshaw and Curry as our four flankers and not Sam Underhill.

The question is then, "Who is your second 8?" With Vunipola nailed on, you're looking at Hughes or Mercer OR picking a 5th flanker and having Wilson cover 8. Wilson has shown he's fine to do this for a couple of games if Vunipola picks up a knock, and if he gets a serious injury he can be replaced. Otherwise, the back-up 8 isn't likely to get many minutes.

I think therefore I'd give Hughes around 60%, Mercer around 20% and 5 flankers as an option around 20%.

So you have a 20% chance of picking every flanker. Then, I'd say Curry and Robshaw have an equal chance of missing out, Wilson and Shields have small chances of missing out and Underhill has no chance of missing out.

Vunipola, Underhill - 100%
Shields, Wilson - 90%
Robshaw, Curry - 70%
Hughes - 60%
Mercer - 20%

The upshot of that is that Mercer is unlikely to make the World Cup squad unless he gets a shot in the 6 Nations and puts in some big performances. If it were my squad I'd have him level with Hughes right now, but it isn't and Eddie likes Hughes. Hughes is also less likely and the option of Wilson at 8 boosts the chances of the other flankers.

The situation in which you wouldn't pick Underhill is the one in which he's injured - which has been a problem in the past. Same goes for Vunipola. For me, Wilson has done enough to show that he's ahead of Hughes (and Simmonds) as a replacement 8, and his versatility would make him a better pick than Hughes. But he's been in and out of favour before.

That leaves a choice between Shields, Robshaw, Mercer and Curry. I haven't seen an update on when Curry will be back - nothing seems to have been released since he was ruled out of the Autumn Internationals. Mercer appears to have done something that didn't impress Eddie, given he was dropped. Robshaw is recovering from knee surgery but due back imminently. I don't see what Eddie sees in Shields, but he's been picked consistently when fit. He seems to be ahead of Robshaw (because he was picked ahead when both were fit), but equally Robshaw has always been picked when fit except when both he and Shields were fit (and has been written off by all and sundry every time he's been out of the team, only to come straight back in).

So my guess for the RWC would be Billy, Underhill, Wilson, Shields and Robshaw. But that might not be the pick for the 6N, because injury rates are so high that Eddie can't count on them all being fit and may want to give game time to the back up options.

Would Eddie pick Robshaw for the RWC because of his experience, you need a lot of caps for the tournament and he brings a fair few.

yappysnap wrote:Would Eddie pick Robshaw for the RWC because of his experience, you need a lot of caps for the tournament and he brings a fair few.

If fit you'd imagine he makes the warm-ups.

If the side play better with him that without him, which has often been the case, then I think he's got a good shot.