England v Scotland 6N Round 5 Saturday 16th March

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England v Scotland
6N Round 5
Saturday 16th March
Twickenham Stadium
London

KO 17.00

Well here we are at the final round of matches and three teams can still come out on top following Ireland's demolition of France this afternoon.

England have the advantage of playing last and will know what they have to do, if Wales have not already wrapped it up with a Grand Slam earlier in the afternoon. That actually might be Scotland's best chance of getting anything out of this game if England get distracted about what is going on else where, particularly if they find playing for second spot a distraction, knowing Wales have already wrapped things up.

On paper, this is only going to be an English win, the only question being by how much.

Scotland have had an awful championship, where just about everything that could have gone wrong. They are only playing for pride, but history tells us that sides that are done at this stage in the competition, rarely have anything left in the tank for the final game.

It is not as if Scotland have any form at Twickenham either, we have not won there since 1983 (did I ever mention that I was there!). We had had a crap season and no-one gave us much of a chance that year either if I remember, then the following year we won the GS. Can I see that happening this time though?

Only in my dreams!

So what do both sides hope to get from the game?

England clearly want a BP victory, some revenge for last year and hopefully a championship. They would also like to show the continued emergence of such players as Cockanasiga, who could be pivotal to them doing well in the WC.

Scotland, despite whatever spin they put on the game, might just be happy with a decent performance and continued development of some of our young starlets. We took another pile of injuries this weekend and getting a half decent competitive side onto the pitch is going to be a challenge in itself. Still, this exposure might be the making of young Hastings, Bradbury, Graham, McDowell, Skinner, Ritchie and anyone else who gets to play, down the line.

Test rugby is a hard old place to earn your living and they will likely be finding that out next weekend.



England


Daly, Nowell, Slade, Tuilagi, May; Farrell, Youngs; Moon, George, Sinckler, Launchbury, Kruis, Wilson, Curry, B Vunipola.

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Cole, Shields, Hughes, Spencer, Ford, Te'o



Scotland:

Maitland; Graham, Grigg, Johnson, McGuigan; Russell, Price; Dell, McInally (capt), Nel; Toolis, Gilchrist; Skinner, Watson, Bradbury.

Replacements: Brown, Reid, Berghan, J Gray, Strauss, Laidlaw, Hastings, Harris

hard to see this being close. scotland so weakened. englaldn hungry for revenge. and england so big. and so dangerous at 11, 14 and 15.

not getting carried away, but the last england side that had great forwards, solid set-piece, a world class kicker with good distribution at 10, and attacking options at 11, 13, 14, 15....well we know what they did.

this england team are a long way from the self belief required to hit the levels of that england team. but the ingredients might be there. biggest weakness for me is ben youngs ponderous distribution. if england aren't front foot he makes everything worse.

looking forward to the game saturday. taking my 9 yr old for his birthday! no beer and no swearing

England by 30. sorry.

Just Eddie being Eddie. Although he has more cause here after the abuse he got. And certain Scottish pundits do seem to love to fan the national hatred flames a bit too much, it all gets a bit OTT at times.

And you can feel the frustration after last years loss, and the manner of the loss. The players should be focused on that. That's the wrong they should be looking to right, how they played so poorly, and were so comprehensively out thought and out played.

Ryan Wilson sounds like a tool though, if he was English you can guarantee other countries fans would be lining up to criticize him, look at the Poopie Farrell and Brown get/got for doing nothing much by comparison.

quinsforever wrote:hard to see this being close. scotland so weakened. englaldn hungry for revenge. and england so big. and so dangerous at 11, 14 and 15.

not getting carried away, but the last england side that had great forwards, solid set-piece, a world class kicker with good distribution at 10, and attacking options at 11, 13, 14, 15....well we know what they did.

this england team are a long way from the self belief required to hit the levels of that england team. but the ingredients might be there. biggest weakness for me is ben youngs ponderous distribution. if england aren't front foot he makes everything worse.

looking forward to the game saturday. taking my 9 yr old for his birthday! no beer and no swearing

England by 30. sorry.

Wales went into the match in a similar predicament in 2015 with regards injuries. We lost three more to injury during the game.

Far too much for pessimism from the Scots on here at the moment. Your team put in a superb performance on Saturday


You may be missing some of your best players but that doesn’t mean it is impossible for a fourth choice scrum half playing on the wing to chip through for a try and win the match as you shove the opposition maul into touch.

On the Ryan Wilson debate. The BBC rugby podcast is outstanding. Danny Care is obviously not Ryan Wilson's biggest fan. I think there's some serious niggle between the two teams. I don't think they like each other much at all. I think Wilson is the archetypal love him when you're on his side hate him when you're not. Danny Care is the same the other way.
At the centre of that is the Glasgow-Saracens issue. I suspect Sean Maitland might be in a bit of an awkward position.

123456789. wrote:On the Ryan Wilson debate. The BBC rugby podcast is outstanding. Danny Care is obviously not Ryan Wilson's biggest fan. I think there's some serious niggle between the two teams. I don't think they like each other much at all. I think Wilson is the archetypal love him when you're on his side hate him when you're not. Danny Care is the same the other way.

That turned out to be a great podcast. I thought Monye and Jones were just winding Care up when they said Wilson was on the phone. Think Wilson gave a good account of himself.

Great that you can raise Wales here for no reason maes. Well done.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Great that you can raise Wales here for no reason maes. Well  done.

What wales acheived that year at HQ is the perfect example, the injuries are almost the same positionally as Scotland currently have, we had lost most of our first and second choice centres, wingers and our two best fullbacks.

Yeah right. So Scotland have to rely on injuries to England and luck. Hope you're not putting your mortgage on that.

https://www.scotsman.com/sport/rugby-union/six-nations/surely-eddie-jones-isn-t-holding-a-grudge-from-last-year-1-4887622

Good to see us shrugging off the comments and having a bit of a laugh about it.

I loved Mike Blair's 'there'd be no room left on the wall' response! 

That article is incorrect - it was Ireland who stopped us breaking the record for successive wins, not Scotland.

The Scotsman isn't renowned for its accurate journalism.

In better news, Sean maitland is fit and ready to go this weekend and set to be named at fullback. As good as Hastings was, we need a proper fullback to cope with the English kicking game.

Agree. That's great news on Maitland. So Maitland, McGuigan and Graham set to comprise the back 3. They'll have their hands full....

123456789. wrote:On the Ryan Wilson debate. The BBC rugby podcast is outstanding. Danny Care is obviously not Ryan Wilson's biggest fan. I think there's some serious niggle between the two teams. I don't think they like each other much at all. I think Wilson is the archetypal love him when you're on his side hate him when you're not. Danny Care is the same the other way.
At the centre of that is the Glasgow-Saracens issue. I suspect Sean Maitland might be in a bit of an awkward position.

Do you have a link/timestamp to where Wilson is discussed, or is it just an ongoing thing brought up from time to time?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Yeah right. So Scotland have to rely on injuries to England and luck. Hope you're not putting your mortgage on that.

No why on earth would you think that. What I am clearly saying is that my despondent Scottish mates on here shouldn’t fear going to Twickenham wales beat England in 2015 with almost the same string of injuries Scotland currently have.

Hmmm. You reply to an English poster bringing up Wales world cup win spinning it and ignoring England's injuries which turned the game. Scraping the barrel.

You are twisting my words completely.

You raised a mute point, I had the decency to reply to you now you are making things up....!

Stop trying to instigate antagonisation on this forum there is no need for your attitude

Time for a stab at the Scotland team, I suspect he wuill change a few around:

1. Dell - he has be one of our best players
2. McInally - This was a tight call, but probably stays in as captain
3. Nel
4. Gilchrist
5. Skinner - played for Exeter last weekend, need to see what he can do
6. Ritchie - how can he be dropped, our best player over the tournament
7. Watson - how we missed him in the earlier rounds
8. Bradbury - needs to show what he is capable of in adversity
9. Price - I was quite hard on him last week, but probably needs one more chance
10. Russell
11. Graham
12. Johnson - should have played last week, needs the exposure
13. Grigg - I think we have to stick with him in the absence of other choices
14. McGuigan - looked good off the bench
15. Maitland

Subs

Reid - hopefully he gets on this time
Brown - unlucky not to start
Fagerson Z - more impact off the bench than Bergs
Toolis - JG needs a rest
Fagerson M - just edges Gary Graham, who is very unlucky
Laidlaw
Hastings - can cover FH, FB and IC
Harris - Can cover OC and wing

That would be a long way from the worst team ever to go down to Twickenham, despite our absentees. We have got a lot more depth than we think these days, it is experience we are lacking in those positions.

It will be a tough tough ask, but I hope these boys can rise to the occasion.

BigGee wrote:Time for a stab at the Scotland team, I suspect he wuill change a few around:

1. Dell - he has be one of our best players
2. McInally - This was a tight call, but probably stays in as captain
3. Nel
4. Gilchrist
5. Skinner - played for Exeter last weekend, need to see what he can do
6. Ritchie - how can he be dropped, our best player over the tournament
7. Watson - how we missed him in the earlier rounds
8. Bradbury - needs to show what he is capable of in adversity
9. Price - I was quite hard on him last week, but probably needs one more chance
10. Russell
11. Graham
12. Johnson - should have played last week, needs the exposure
13. Grigg - I think we have to stick with him in the absence of other choices
14. McGuigan - looked good off the bench
15. Maitland

Subs

Reid - hopefully he gets on this time
Brown - unlucky not to start
Fagerson Z - more impact off the bench than Bergs
Toolis - JG needs a rest
Fagerson M - just edges Gary Graham, who is very unlucky
Laidlaw
Hastings - can cover FH, FB and IC
Harris - Can cover OC and wing

That would be a long way from the worst team ever to go down to Twickenham, despite our absentees. We have got a lot more depth than we think these days, it is experience we are lacking in those positions.

It will be a tough tough ask, but I hope these boys can rise to the occasion.

That would be my team! Only change I would make is G Graham for Fagerson (I hope to Fagerson in the WC warm ups though).

Rugby Fan wrote:

123456789. wrote:On the Ryan Wilson debate. The BBC rugby podcast is outstanding. Danny Care is obviously not Ryan Wilson's biggest fan. I think there's some serious niggle between the two teams. I don't think they like each other much at all. I think Wilson is the archetypal love him when you're on his side hate him when you're not. Danny Care is the same the other way.

That turned out to be a great podcast. I thought Monye and Jones were just winding Care up when they said Wilson was on the phone. Think Wilson gave a good account of himself.

Yeah, I definitely thought that Wilson came across better in that segment - Danny Care and a bulk of the English players obviously don't like him, but he seemed to laugh it off just fine.

How much has Maitland played at FB recently?

LondonTiger wrote:How much has Maitland played at FB recently?

I thought the same. Quality player, no doubt, but an international full back? Given that was certainly the story of the first couple of England games, the exposing of Henderson and Huget(?) being out of position.

Another angle - he's not the biggest fella, and with Cokanasiga and May competing against him...

Edit: just checked Wikipedia and apparently he's 6'2" and 101kg. I stand corrected. My impression was that he wasn't that big...

To reiterate - not doubting his quality as a player; he's a Lion, after all!

I assume you mean Henshaw, not Henderson

LondonTiger wrote:I assume you mean Henshaw, not Henderson

You assume correctly, sir!

What does Jones mean when he says Scotland should expect a hostile reception? Are his players going out to hunt down yellow and red cards?

Oh, game in the bag for Scotland

But seriously, Scotland with some smart coaching might find some leverage in Jones' words. If England are charged up to put manners on the Scots then perhaps they are again charged enough to be 'got at' mentally speaking. Too much fizz(icality) and a yellow card might help Scotland sneak over the line.

Maitland generally plays wing, but he's played at fullback at international level a lot more than Hastings has! He had a great game there when we pumped Australia 2 AIs ago. Modern back 3 play is very interchangable too so he'll be much more at home there than Hastings.

Ickle Grigg vs Tuilagi. Interesting match up.

miaow wrote:Do you have a link/timestamp to where Wilson is discussed, or is it just an ongoing thing brought up from time to time?

Care talked about him last week, I think, but you can just listen to this week's podcast, where Wilson is actually on the line. He pops up quite early.

We could have Graham vs Cokanasiga and Grigg vs Tuilagi.

We have seen Scott and Visser, who are much bigger, shy out of tackles. I don't think Graham or Grigg have because of the accusations of being too small. I would be more worried by Horne than Grigg.

I hope we can get Farrell in the line and run Graham at him as I am not sure his tackling technique has improved hugely on last year. The situations he is put in at 10 vs at 12 have protected him a bit from scrutiny.

As for the side, BG has got most of it. G Graham has to play, probably on the bench. Graham is abrasive and the closest we have to Barclay in style of play. Ritchie has been good and Watson has to start. Skinner can cover 8 if we really get hit with an injury bug. Might as well have fun with it. We are not going to win with safe selections.

Real tombola is having a 6-2 split with Graham, Fagerson, Laidlaw covering 9-10 and Harris everything else

Rugby Fan wrote:

miaow wrote:Do you have a link/timestamp to where Wilson is discussed, or is it just an ongoing thing brought up from time to time?

Care talked about him last week, I think, but you can just listen to this week's podcast, where Wilson is actually on the line. He pops up quite early.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0737j5t

about 13/14 minutes in

Hazel Sapling wrote:We could have Graham vs Cokanasiga and Grigg vs Tuilagi.

We have seen Scott and Visser, who are much bigger, shy out of tackles. I don't think Graham or Grigg have because of the accusations of being too small. I would be more worried by Horne than Grigg.

I hope we can get Farrell in the line and run Graham at him as I am not sure his tackling technique has improved hugely on last year. The situations he is put in at 10 vs at 12 have protected him a bit from scrutiny.

As for the side, BG has got most of it. G Graham has to play, probably on the bench. Graham is abrasive and the closest we have to Barclay in style of play. Ritchie has been good and Watson has to start. Skinner can cover 8 if we really get hit with an injury bug. Might as well have fun with it. We are not going to win with safe selections.

Real tombola is having a 6-2 split with Graham, Fagerson, Laidlaw covering 9-10 and Harris everything else

Harsh to say Scott shied away from tackles - his defensive positioning has been questionable at the highest level but I don't think you can accuse him of that.

Visser on the other hand...

Hazel Sapling wrote:We could have Graham vs Cokanasiga and Grigg vs Tuilagi.

We have seen Scott and Visser, who are much bigger, shy out of tackles. I don't think Graham or Grigg have because of the accusations of being too small. I would be more worried by Horne than Grigg.

I hope we can get Farrell in the line and run Graham at him as I am not sure his tackling technique has improved hugely on last year. The situations he is put in at 10 vs at 12 have protected him a bit from scrutiny.

As for the side, BG has got most of it. G Graham has to play, probably on the bench. Graham is abrasive and the closest we have to Barclay in style of play. Ritchie has been good and Watson has to start. Skinner can cover 8 if we really get hit with an injury bug. Might as well have fun with it. We are not going to win with safe selections.

Real tombola is having a 6-2 split with Graham, Fagerson, Laidlaw covering 9-10 and Harris everything else

Farrell's tackle success rate this tournament is 82% (9 missed, 41 made), which is better than it has been. However, Farrell added another out of hand rip to his tally for this tournament against Italy.

Farrell usually rushes up quickly, goes into tackles upright and targets the ball. A player running powerfully can shrug him off (which contributes to his missed tackle stat) or gain yards through the tackles (as McInally did last year). But if he latches on to that ball he's got a good habit of ripping it away.

Farrell is currently on 4 turnovers won for the tournament, and considering I haven't seen him even glance at a ruck I'd be willing to beat that none of those came on the ground and all of those came in the tackle. Only two players have more, Dupont and O'Mahony, while there are a number of players also on 4 - some you may not expect: Bastareaud, Curry, Lauret, North, Picamoles, Wilson.

I thought his "weak defence" was overplayed before this tournament. He's not the strongest defender or technically the best tackler, but he has his method and while he didn't get much joy last year this year his stats at least read much better, and he's been rewarded with the turnovers he's seeking.

EST wrote:

Rugby Fan wrote:

123456789. wrote:On the Ryan Wilson debate. The BBC rugby podcast is outstanding. Danny Care is obviously not Ryan Wilson's biggest fan. I think there's some serious niggle between the two teams. I don't think they like each other much at all. I think Wilson is the archetypal love him when you're on his side hate him when you're not. Danny Care is the same the other way.

That turned out to be a great podcast. I thought Monye and Jones were just winding Care up when they said Wilson was on the phone. Think Wilson gave a good account of himself.

Yeah, I definitely thought that Wilson came across better in that segment - Danny Care and a bulk of the English players obviously don't like him, but he seemed to laugh it off just fine.

I just finished listening to the segment and its hilarious - Care clearly does not like being needled and having heard Wilson on other podcasts and interviews he's clearly on the wind up and enjoying himself, Care just bites! I get the impression that during a game Wilson goes fishing for bites and gets them regularly - probably the reason why the coaches like having him on the field as no other player in the Scotland side does this (too many gentle giants in the pack I suspect).

Wilson is almost Jim Hamilton level of wind up merchant

I don't think he was ever as terrible a tackler as he was made out to be Robbo, but if you are choosing between Farrell, Te'o and Tuilagi to target in the line, you are choosing Farrell who has been prone to tackling high and gives up front foot ball...something we struggle to get

I do wonder if we will see Kyle Steyn in for this game - the thought of Manu and Te'o going up against Horne and Grigg is not a good one - both players have had poor tournaments.

I know he has hardly even played for Glasgow, but he has looked a solid operator and would at least give us a bit of a focal point in attack.

They'll all be missing tackles. I haven't checked but I expect England will be too of that stat and bottom on possession. It's how we set out to play.

Tramptastic wrote:

Rugby Fan wrote:

miaow wrote:Do you have a link/timestamp to where Wilson is discussed, or is it just an ongoing thing brought up from time to time?

Care talked about him last week, I think, but you can just listen to this week's podcast, where Wilson is actually on the line. He pops up quite early.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0737j5t

about 13/14 minutes in

Manu, T'eo, Horne, Grigg, Steyn, it's all redundant

Even the most optimistic Scotland fan can't be expecting anything other then a humping at Twickenham.

Yes your heart can always say there's a chance, but anyone who's head is saying Scotland will win need their head checked!

England by 20

but then again, we do seem to play better then we're massive underdogs............

Hazel Sapling wrote:I don't think he was ever as terrible a tackler as he was made out to be Robbo, but if you are choosing between Farrell, Te'o and Tuilagi to target in the line, you are choosing Farrell who has been prone to tackling high and gives up front foot ball...something we struggle to get

Fair enough strategy!

Surely EJ will bring Slade back? it's a much more balanced midfield with him at 13.

No 7&1/2 wrote:They'll all be missing tackles. I haven't checked but I expect England will be too of that stat and bottom on possession. It's how we set out to play.

There's not much in it, but England have missed 11.1% of their tackles and are actually the best in the tournament at the moment. Wales are second with 11.3%, and the worst (Italy) are only marginally worse at 13.36%.

I can't find team stats for possession across the tournament, or team stats for kicks from hand, but we've got the lowest total of passes (525) and carries (450), indicating that we've probably had less ball as you can't exactly stand there not passing or carrying. We also have the top 2 individual kickers in Youngs and Farrell in terms of kicks from hand, so that mishmash of stats does indicate we've probably got the least possession.

All this underdog business always seems to bring out the best in some teams, Scotland are definitely one of those imo.

Their style of play is one that can cut any team apart, it doesn't take much for a Watson/Ritchie turnover at the ruck followed by some quality handling to lead to a try. Where I think we'll be better than last season is at the ruck, I'm assuming Wilson will come back in, and the combination with Curry has looked very strong just in terms of instantly being ready to support the tackled player.

They'll have to continue in that vein, I don't want to see the Scots baiting us into those line breaks which led to isolated carriers like we saw over and over again last year

If we can do that, I think we'll be able to dominate the contact area in both attack and defence, and would love to see our back 3 attack with ball in hand against an injury hit Scots backline. We owe them a shellacking after last year

No 7&1/2 wrote:They'll all be missing tackles. I haven't checked but I expect England will be too of that stat and bottom on possession. It's how we set out to play.

 Tackles:
Made, Missed %

England 793, 99, 89%
France 637, 90, 88%
Ireland 544, 83, 87%
Italy 655, 101, 87%
Scotland 675, 99, 87% (though due to rounding almost 1% higher than Italy)
Wales 660, 84, 89%


Very little in it in terms of percentages. England who had 40% or less possession against Ireland, Wales and Italy (47% v France) unsurprisingly have made the most tackles, while Ireland who tend to have long phases of possession have made the least.

It should be noted that Scotland have run the most metres (1798) ball in hand yet scored the least tries.


Of vague interest the 3 teams still in contention for the title have run the ball less than the bottom 3 teams. (England 1605, Ireland 1584, Wales 1362)

Shows the importance of an effective kicking game LT. Each of those 3 teams takes a slightly different approach to getting up the field through kicks, but no doubt it's a key part.

I can believe that stat LT - as I said during the Wales game as soon as we lost momentum and Wales slowed us down in their 22 I knew we wouldn't score. We've been making the breaks all championship but not finishing them off.

Last 6N we were making the breaks and finishing them off!

Also relates to efficiency in scoring. England don't tend to mess around, and the kicking game (when it is working!) means that they are also not trying to run the ball in from their own 22.

The irony is that teams that are good at scoring will spend more time defending. As Wales have shown that is not the only way of winning matches though.

LondonTiger wrote:It should be noted that Scotland have run the most metres (1798) ball in hand yet scored the least tries.


Of vague interest the 3 teams still in contention for the title have run the ball less than the bottom 3 teams. (England 1605, Ireland 1584, Wales 1362)

643 of our metres were made against Italy, leaving less than 1000 to be made across the other 3 games. Ireland made 500ish and Wales made 400ish, so you take out the Italy game and the three teams are actually very level in terms of metres made. Everyone made more metres against Italy than in their other games, but with England facing Italy at home made comparatively more than others, and got a comparatively better score.

I'd say Ireland win the 'walk the ball' stats though....

Ta for the stats. So joint second. Better than I thought! Just shows you that lies, damned lies and statistics really rings true if you can't interpret them.

Well stats can help you explain why things happened, but you can't work out what happened just from the stats, if that makes sense.

Absolutely.