RWC 2019 - Early odds...

First topic message reminder :

Poll to see, early thoughts on who the "fans" favourite is to take the RWC2019.

Of course, teams are mainly, as yet, unknown, but it is interesting to see the initial thoughts and then compare them later when teams are known and warm up games have been played.

LordDowlais wrote:

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days.

True. We've tended to concentrate too much on beating the big SH sides that tended to be above us (the habit of always looking up), and kinda forgot about the locals for a bit.

But sure, now you're the big team above us. I'm sure the Ireland team will be keeping a firm eye on you now. Now you've got the price on your heads.

LordDowlais wrote:Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

Like I said the record v Wales is pretty negligible as we wont need to face them until the semis and there is no guarantee Wales will make it (nor Ireland) so it will not make or break Ireland's chances of RWC success.

I agree though Ireland's 1/4 record as I have said from the start is Ireland's challenge. Wales' terrible record v the SH sides is Wales' challenge.

Collapse2005 wrote:Well there is no doubt Wales are good enough. Their challenge is a terrible record v the SH sides. Irelands challenge is a poor record in 1/4 finals.

Wales should really have been in the 2011 final but for the warburton red, but France pool was so poor vs nobodies somehow they scraped over two NH opponents to make final and nearly ripped that off as well. One of the truly freakiest runs of any side in this tournament, shades of england in 07 who were also not a great side. Then you get a side like Ireland who have had none of the zany results that France have had many, many times in this tourny.

Zany the other way round to France though...as in freaky in a backwards trip from their form entering the competition.

Maybe this time we'll get to be zany in the right direction.

ebop wrote:Is there a fear Schmidt has checked out of Ireland? Sure he’s professional and all that but he’s pretty much checked out hasn’t he? The last 6N performance saw an alarming regression.

I think you’re right. Checked out but still hanging round the lobby the morning after hoping to score. These kiwi coaches don’t seem to have the staying power in Irish rugby. Must be the weather or something.

Pot Hale wrote:

ebop wrote:Is there a fear Schmidt has checked out of Ireland? Sure he’s professional and all that but he’s pretty much checked out hasn’t he? The last 6N performance saw an alarming regression.

I think you’re right.  Checked out but still hanging round the lobby the morning after hoping to score.  These kiwi coaches don’t seem to have the staying power in Irish rugby.  Must be the weather or something.  

Ha ha, maybe he’s just exhausted.

Collapse2005 wrote:Wales' problem is they just cant beat the SH sides regularly enough.

I think Wales are side which tends to over perform in the 6N. Their players don't really do much at club level so it allows them to peak at key times, namely the 6N and Lions tours, which both hold a lot of significance in Wales.

Look at where the regions are in the pro 14 and Europe, they are getting worse yet the national side are in the top 3.

I suppose then that they'll have this WC down as a Lions tour mindframe?

For me, the biggest issue for Gatland and his team is quite evident in the voting above; his team are not coming in under the radar like he allegedly hopes they would.  

He and his side are ambitious (no harm in that, so are we all) but he chased after that GS because he needed it to get his player's confidence up.  They went for it.  They might say now that they were holding something back but my observation of them during that time won't allow me to buy it.  AWJ's was sweating blood to get that Slam.  

Now they have to repeat that effort and this time they'll be doing it from a high ground when other teams are looking up at them and plotting their downfall.
They say Ireland relies on being underdogs to get the energy and drive to pull off important wins...but the Welsh psychology isn't a million miles away from ours.  They get energy from trying to topple the big guns above them.  Now they are it.  Up there in the clouds, with most of the rest of us gazing up.

Potentially, Gatland's 6N ambitions spoiled a WC campaign.  I'm only saying "potentially". Wales are good enough to win the competition, without doubt, even before winning the Slam and going to world ranking 2.  But 2 does carry more mental weight and the Welsh did give mucho energy to the 6N.

SecretFly wrote:I suppose then that they'll have this WC down as a Lions tour mindframe?

For me, the biggest issue for Gatland and his team is quite evident in the voting above; his team are not coming in under the radar like he allegedly hopes they would.  

He and his side are ambitious (no harm in that, so are we all) but he chased after that GS because he needed it to get his player's confidence up.  They went for it.  They might say now that they were holding something back but my observation of them during that time won't allow me to buy it.  AWJ's was sweating blood to get that Slam.  

Now they have to repeat that effort and this time they'll be doing it from a high ground when other teams are looking up at them and plotting their downfall.
They say Ireland relies on being underdogs to get the energy and drive to pull off important wins...but the Welsh psychology isn't a million miles away from ours.  They get energy from trying to topple the big guns above them.  Now they are it.  Up there in the clouds, with most of the rest of us gazing up.

Potentially, Gatland's 6N ambitions spoiled a WC campaign.  I'm only saying "potentially".  Wales are good enough to win the competition, without doubt, even before winning the Slam and going to world ranking 2.  But 2 does carry more mental weight and the Welsh did give mucho energy to the 6N.

There are still the unassailable All Blacks a head and shoulders above us and as pointed out the other day Wales record under Gatland against any top six team is not conclusive. It was a close six nations and will be a tightly won RWC, I doubt anyone will get an easy win in the big games.

tigertattie wrote:Alright, who are they two jokers that voted for Scotland?

Couldn't help myself

Scotland to win every match 39-38, conceding 38 points in the first 50 minutes in every match before blitzing the opposition in the subsequent 30

No-one will quite believe it

Scotland will still be labelled "Brave" and "Plucky" despite beating Ireland, Japan, Samoa, Russia, NZ, Wales and England on the way to lifting the Webb Ellis trophy.

Collapse2005 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

Like I said the record v Wales is pretty negligible as we wont need to face them until the semis and there is no guarantee Wales will make it (nor Ireland) so it will not make or break Ireland's chances of RWC success.

I agree though Ireland's 1/4 record as I have said from the start is Ireland's challenge. Wales' terrible record v the SH sides is Wales' challenge.

blah, blah, blah.

I will just console myself in the fact, that even though, in your opinion, Wales do not have a good record against SH sides, although it's only New Zealand and Australia if truth be told, and go with the FACT that we have not been beaten since February 2018.

Yes, that's a 14 game unbeaten run with 6 of those fixtures against SH opposition. Not too shabby going into a World Cup year.

No its not a matter of opinion sadly, its a matter of fact really. My opinion nor anyone else's can change nor influence historical results.

SecretFly wrote:

Now they have to repeat that effort and this time they'll be doing it from a high ground when other teams are looking up at them and plotting their downfall.

Very true, and this has happened to both England and Ireland recently, both on a streak, both sat down by other sides at 6N time. Quite suddenly as well. That part of it Wales wont like, and why losing- genuinely- at friendlys time will put the team in a better frame of mind. Not having lost a match since 2018 is a long time to not be really learning from matches, particularly when youre not ranked number one.
Wales at two head Ireland England SA and Oz, all of whom are ready to pounce on Wales. Ireland and England get to stay ‘slightly’ under the radar due to Wales success, even if most arent buying it.

best bets on those odds are NZ, and especially SA. SA are much better, IMO, than their form over the last 3 years.

especially as if NZ and ENG win groups (big if for ENG), they play each other in semis.

anyone going?

quinsforever wrote:anyone going?

Cyril, BamBam and 7.5 are going together. Really wish I could join them.

Alas we think you're a .....

quinsforever wrote:anyone going?

I have tickets but havent decided yet.

Collapse2005 wrote:

quinsforever wrote:anyone going?

I have tickets but havent decided yet.

You should Guns. Between Ireland, Australia and Argentina you’ve got a few bases covered. But if you had to pick one country to support who would it be?

ebop wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

quinsforever wrote:anyone going?

I have tickets but havent decided yet.

You should Guns. Between Ireland, Australia and Argentina you’ve got a few bases covered. But if you had to pick one country to support who would it be?

Anyone but England.

Gooseberry wrote:

ebop wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

quinsforever wrote:anyone going?

I have tickets but havent decided yet.

You should Guns. Between Ireland, Australia and Argentina you’ve got a few bases covered. But if you had to pick one country to support who would it be?

Anyone but England.

I have always been an England fan so I would support them. Its more of a case of anyone but NZ.

Trying to organise with my brother who will be flying from Sydney.

Basically its a choice between Japan in September/October with my brother or Buenos Aires for two weeks in December with the wife. Cant make my mind up.

Wales.

Best Coach in the history of the game.

2nd in the world rankings, all the pressure on NZ.

Squad full of world class talent.

I went with NZ for obvious reasons. Barrett vs Mo’unga in the Crusaders vs Hurricanes semi final was incredible. The fitness levels across the board were really something.

Best of the rest, my money is on SA this year. I think they are about to step it up a notch and reclaim some places in the world rankings pre RWC.

Argentina a really interesting one, could they beat France in their pool? I can’t see them beating England but I’m very interested to see how they go in the quad nations.

It's hard to know what to make of SA. Many people fancy them but they haven't proved much in the last few years.


Think there'll be many upsets? What I would define as an upset is a team who are priced about 1/3 or less, losing.

profitius wrote:It's hard to know what to make of SA. Many people fancy them but they haven't proved much in the last few years.


Think there'll be many upsets? What I would define as an upset is a team who are priced about 1/3 or less, losing.

SA getting to the semis would be an upset given their form of the last 4 years. Last year they lost half of all their games but still won in NZ. Basket case.

For me they are still too easy to outsmart to win the competition however, if anyone can Rassie can.

bsando wrote:I went with NZ for obvious reasons. Barrett vs Mo’unga in the Crusaders vs Hurricanes semi final was incredible. The fitness levels across the board were really something.

Best of the rest, my money is on SA this year. I think they are about to step it up a notch and reclaim some places in the world rankings pre RWC.

Argentina a really interesting one, could they beat France in their pool? I can’t see them beating England but I’m very interested to see how they go in the quad nations.

They have played eachother three times at world cups. 2 wins for Argentina, one for France.

Collapse2005 wrote:

bsando wrote:I went with NZ for obvious reasons. Barrett vs Mo’unga in the Crusaders vs Hurricanes semi final was incredible. The fitness levels across the board were really something.

Best of the rest, my money is on SA this year. I think they are about to step it up a notch and reclaim some places in the world rankings pre RWC.

Argentina a really interesting one, could they beat France in their pool? I can’t see them beating England but I’m very interested to see how they go in the quad nations.

They have played eachother three times at world cups. 2 wins for Argentina, one for France.

Yeah but they havent played them at this World cup with these players. What happened 20 years ago is irrelevant really. 

Argentina absolutely have a solid chance against France. Although there stalk that France look like they might suddenly improve theyve been awful for a long time. Argentina are showing just as many signs of potential improvement based on the jagures form. We should know a bit more after the RC games but even based on their current rankings Argentina arent a long way behind. 

This pool could be very interesting, as we saw at the last world cup a pot 3 team can step up and beat a pot 1 team. Infact Argentina did just this 12 years ago ...(cough)

Well 20 years ago was the last time France beat them at a RWC, Argentina beat them twice in the '07 RWC which was 12 years ago.

France's more recent record v Argentina isn't much to boast about either. 3 wins from the last 6 games although in their last game in Argentina they did get a good win against a poor Argie side.

For me Argentina would be favorites for this game. They blew a bit hot an cold in last years rugby championship but showed good signs. I think the Jaguares' form is relevant as I think it is pretty much the Pumas team as I cant see too many of the NH based players automatically getting into the side other than Sanchez.

Isa, Herrera, Cordero and Imhoff may make the squad but not sure they would get straight into the side. Herrera possibly as their front row is creaking a bit.

Collapse2005 wrote:Well 20 years ago was the last time France beat them at a RWC, Argentina beat them twice in the '07 RWC which was 12 years ago.

France's more recent record v Argentina isn't much to boast about either. 3 wins from the last 6 games although in their last game in Argentina they did get a good win against a poor Argie side.

For me Argentina would be favorites for this game. They blew a bit hot an cold in last years rugby championship but showed good signs. I think the Jaguares' form is relevant as I think it is pretty much the Pumas team as I cant see too many of the NH based players automatically getting into the side other than Sanchez.

Isa, Herrera, Cordero and Imhoff may make the squad but not sure they would get straight into the side. Herrera possibly as their front row is creaking a bit.

Is this the same Argentina that got white washed by both Wales and Scotland during the summer ?

The Jaguares scrum is poop and if the Pumas have any chance in the RWC they’ll need to sort that out. Watch the Crusaders demoralise the Jaguares there this weekend. It’ll be a blood bath.

ebop wrote:The Jaguares scrum is poop and if the Pumas have any chance in the RWC they’ll need to sort that out. Watch the Crusaders demoralise the Jaguares there this weekend. It’ll be a blood bath.

Weren't the Brumbies meant to rip the Jaguares' scrum apart? Weren't the Crusaders meant to rip the Hurricanes scrum apart? Neither happened, in face the Hurricanes looked to have marginally the better scrum at times.

The lineout will be interesting as the is a Crusaders strength too however, the Jaguares have been quite good there too.

LordDowlais wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Well 20 years ago was the last time France beat them at a RWC, Argentina beat them twice in the '07 RWC which was 12 years ago.

France's more recent record v Argentina isn't much to boast about either. 3 wins from the last 6 games although in their last game in Argentina they did get a good win against a poor Argie side.

For me Argentina would be favorites for this game. They blew a bit hot an cold in last years rugby championship but showed good signs. I think the Jaguares' form is relevant as I think it is pretty much the Pumas team as I cant see too many of the NH based players automatically getting into the side other than Sanchez.

Isa, Herrera, Cordero and Imhoff may make the squad but not sure they would get straight into the side. Herrera possibly as their front row is creaking a bit.

Is this the same Argentina that got white washed by both Wales and Scotland during the summer ?

No.

Collapse2005 wrote:

ebop wrote:The Jaguares scrum is poop and if the Pumas have any chance in the RWC they’ll need to sort that out. Watch the Crusaders demoralise the Jaguares there this weekend. It’ll be a blood bath.

Weren't the Brumbies meant to rip the Jaguares' scrum apart? Weren't the Crusaders meant to rip the Hurricanes scrum apart? Neither happened, in face the Hurricanes looked to have marginally the better scrum at times.

The lineout will be interesting as the is a Crusaders strength too however, the Jaguares have been quite good there too.

The Chiefs ripped the Jaguares scrum apart as have many a team

Collapse2005 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Well 20 years ago was the last time France beat them at a RWC, Argentina beat them twice in the '07 RWC which was 12 years ago.

France's more recent record v Argentina isn't much to boast about either. 3 wins from the last 6 games although in their last game in Argentina they did get a good win against a poor Argie side.

For me Argentina would be favorites for this game. They blew a bit hot an cold in last years rugby championship but showed good signs. I think the Jaguares' form is relevant as I think it is pretty much the Pumas team as I cant see too many of the NH based players automatically getting into the side other than Sanchez.

Isa, Herrera, Cordero and Imhoff may make the squad but not sure they would get straight into the side. Herrera possibly as their front row is creaking a bit.

Is this the same Argentina that got white washed by both Wales and Scotland during the summer ?

No.

Whats the difference then ?

ebop wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

ebop wrote:The Jaguares scrum is poop and if the Pumas have any chance in the RWC they’ll need to sort that out. Watch the Crusaders demoralise the Jaguares there this weekend. It’ll be a blood bath.

Weren't the Brumbies meant to rip the Jaguares' scrum apart? Weren't the Crusaders meant to rip the Hurricanes scrum apart? Neither happened, in face the Hurricanes looked to have marginally the better scrum at times.

The lineout will be interesting as the is a Crusaders strength too however, the Jaguares have been quite good there too.

The Chiefs ripped the Jaguares scrum apart as have many a team

The chiefs who lost their quarter v the Jaguares?

LordDowlais wrote:Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

Wales have beaten New Zealand more times than Ireland but only once in my lifetime.

My thoughts are that there is little between any of the teams below New Zealand in the rankings and there will be little between any of the teams come the RWC. Even the kiwis will feel the pressure of expectation and a result against them isn’t unprecedented.
Most kiwis I know don’t think they will get through the RC unscathed.

You are over 60? You would have to be in your 70s to even remember the game the last time Wales won v NZ.

I have a feeling someone like England will knock NZ out.

Collapse2005 wrote:You are over 60? You would have to be in your 70s to even remember the game the last time Wales won v NZ.

I’m 74 i was 8 years old and listened to the game with about thirteen people on the radio in our neighbours pantry. I had become enchanted with listening to sport earlier that summer when we reclaimed the Ashes for the first time since before the war.

Jeepers. You have been waiting a long time for win 2. Maybe this year, who knows.

Collapse2005 wrote:Jeepers. You have been waiting a long time for win 2. Maybe this year, who knows.

yeah, the final or even the semi, not fussy at all really

maestegmafia wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:You are over 60? You would have to be in your 70s to even remember the game the last time Wales won v NZ.

I’m 74 i was 8 years old and listened to the game with about thirteen people on the radio in our neighbours pantry. I had become enchanted with listening to sport earlier that summer when we reclaimed the Ashes for the first time since before the war.

Gosh,
Alan Mackie said he went to that game and that had quite an influence on him...or was it 63/64 (when they won)

maestegmafia wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

Wales have beaten New Zealand more times than Ireland but only once in my lifetime.

My thoughts are that there is little between any of the teams below New Zealand in the rankings and there will be little between any of the teams come the RWC. Even the kiwis will feel the pressure of expectation and a result against them isn’t unprecedented.
Most kiwis I know don’t think they will get through the RC unscathed.

Wales were ahead for 50 odd years on NZ, then the wheels kinda fell off, and still are...

Collapse2005 wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Argentina beat them twice in the '07 RWC which was 12 years ago.

Is this the same Argentina that got white washed by both Wales and Scotland during the summer ?

No.

What happened 9 months ago isnt relevant. What happened 12 years ago is. Glad we sorted that out.

LordDowlais wrote:Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

Ireland don't always bottle it. We were Poopie  for many years when the world cup was first on and tactically outthought on a few occasions as well as having bad luck.


And yes Schmidt struggles against Gatland but its all changing next year. The provinces' success compared to the welsh teams is going to start to tell at some stage.

Taylorman wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

Wales have beaten New Zealand more times than Ireland but only once in my lifetime.

My thoughts are that there is little between any of the teams below New Zealand in the rankings and there will be little between any of the teams come the RWC. Even the kiwis will feel the pressure of expectation and a result against them isn’t unprecedented.
Most kiwis I know don’t think they will get through the RC unscathed.

Wales were ahead for 50 odd years on NZ, then the wheels kinda fell off, and still are...

It’s a 60 year cycle Taylor. We had the first half. Unfortunately for us a lot more games have been played while you guys have had the upper hand due to travel becoming a tad easier.

Still there has been some great rugby. 72 and 78 the teams were very evenly matched. 2003 RWC was very entertaining, 04 even the kiwis I was with thought we were going to do it that season lead to a first GS in the 6N since 78...! First two tests in our 2016 tour, too many injuries by the the third. We’ve played each other a lot in the last decade.

Well the good news for Wales is that no team has beat them more than 30 games in a row before, so advantage Wales in the next one.

Collapse2005 wrote:Well the good news for Wales is that no team has beat them more than 30 games in a row before, so advantage Wales in the next one.

Ha ha ha

Collapse2005 wrote:Well the good news for Wales is that no team has beat them more than 30 games in a row before, so advantage Wales in the next one.

Take my money now, Mr Bookmaker

You heard it here first.