RWC 2019 - Early odds...

First topic message reminder :

Poll to see, early thoughts on who the "fans" favourite is to take the RWC2019.

Of course, teams are mainly, as yet, unknown, but it is interesting to see the initial thoughts and then compare them later when teams are known and warm up games have been played.

Your hot takes are ridiculous

Whats a hot take?

They’re like hot cakes but more ridiculous

Must be a Kiwi thing

More an American thing

Examples of your hot takes are ‘The Pumas will win the RC’. Another would be ‘The Crusaders aren’t very good and the Jaguares will win the SR final in Christchurch’ or ‘Wales will beat the ABs the next time they play’. Or ‘I’d be disappointed if the Ireland U20s don’t beat an Average U20 NZ team’. Those are all examples of your ridiculous hot takes. Which begs the question, do you have a clue?

ebop wrote:Examples of your hot takes are ‘The Pumas will win the RC’. Another would be ‘The Crusaders aren’t very good and the Jaguares will win the SR final in Christchurch’ or ‘Wales will beat the ABs the next time they play’. Or ‘I’d be disappointed if the Ireland U20s don’t beat an Average U20 NZ team’. Those are all examples of your ridiculous hot takes. Which begs the question, do you have a clue?

Will if you are going to misquote me then maybe.

‘The Pumas will win the RC’
Actual quote - "Argentina to Win the Rugby Championship?" - Spot the difference?

‘The Crusaders aren’t very good and the Jaguares will win the SR final in Christchurch’  
Actual Quote "I wouldnt be surprised if the Jaguares won the final" - Spot the difference? "Dont think the Crusaders are as good as they are made out to be at least I feel they are more beatable than they were last year" Spot the difference?

If you are going to quote me then at least don't make it up. You just make yourself look silly.

I was disappointed that Ireland didnt beat an average under 20s side. I stand by that one (if that's what I actually said). They were average.

As for the prediction for Wales to beat NZ the next time, they could I think they are good enough but the reference to 30 games in a row was clearly a joke. Surprised I have to explain that one.

Also three of these events haven't happened yet, you must be very cocky if you think they are all foregone conclusions.

Backing the truck up eh Guns? It’s ok we all say things that we wouldn’t bet money on. Like Ireland in the RWC for example. Although you hedge your bets on three countries, lol. You’re right about the NZ U20s though as they were well below average.

ebop wrote:Backing the truck up eh Guns? It’s ok we all say things that we wouldn’t bet money on. Like Ireland in the RWC for example. Although you hedge your bets on three countries, lol. You’re right about the NZ U20s though as they were well below average.

Poor effort at a troll.

maestegmafia wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

LordDowlais wrote:Hey, it's not my theory, it's yours.

You want to base one off games on the history of them being played.

You want to use New Zealand as a barometer, then fine, you have beaten them once more than us, in our entire history.

For the record, I think if Wales can avoid New Zealand, we have better chance than Ireland of winning the World cup.

The trouble for Ireland is, they tend to struggle against Wales these days, and you always bottle it in the knock out stages of the world cup.

Wales have beaten New Zealand more times than Ireland but only once in my lifetime.

My thoughts are that there is little between any of the teams below New Zealand in the rankings and there will be little between any of the teams come the RWC. Even the kiwis will feel the pressure of expectation and a result against them isn’t unprecedented.
Most kiwis I know don’t think they will get through the RC unscathed.

Wales were ahead for 50 odd years on NZ, then the wheels kinda fell off, and still are...

It’s a 60 year cycle Taylor. We had the first half. Unfortunately for us a lot more games have been played while you guys have had the upper hand due to travel becoming a tad easier.

Still there has been some great rugby. 72 and 78 the teams were very evenly matched. 2003 RWC was very entertaining, 04 even the kiwis I was with thought we were going to do it that season lead to a first GS in the 6N since 78...! First two tests in our 2016 tour, too many injuries by the the third. We’ve played each other a lot in the last decade.

Yes there were some close ones in the 70s, it did seem as though the Lions or baabaas were needed to actually get those critical wins. 72 really should have been a victory for at least one of the home unions, probably our worst team since 49. Full of a lot of players that didn’t last long after many left when lochore retired.
73 and 73!baabaas game saw the very best of home unions rugby that I’ve ever seen, and that includes 03 because of the style they played.

It was a time we thought rugby has left the SH and the north have taken over completely in all sense, hugely expansive style, and with the Bok drubbing in 74 the reversal looked complete.

Then.... nothing.

Bit by bit NZ then oz clawed back, we scraped the 78 Hayden test but oddly still found France picking us off in one offs- 73, 77 and 79 in one brilliant eden park test.

A lost to England in I think 79? then 1980 is the first sign NZ rugby finally got on top of the north in any way with the 1980 Mourie tour. That was more compelling than even the slam in 78.

Then it just sort of dawdled from there until the mid 80s when NZ rugby went to another level in 87.

87 was a game changer.
The ABs were so far ahead of everyone else toward a professional attitude towards the sport

We saw it building from 83 in Auckland and to an extent Canterbury. John hart introduced a very attacking gameplan and as luck would have it got the players to match it.
Auckland started its ranfurly shield run in 85 and held it for 63 matches straight till 93, a challenge only trophy.
That side provided the bulk of the ABs over that period.

maestegmafia wrote:87 was a game changer.
The ABs were so far ahead of everyone else toward a professional attitude towards the sport

They were eight years ahead of the game becoming officially professional.

The Great Aukster wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:87 was a game changer.
The ABs were so far ahead of everyone else toward a professional attitude towards the sport

They were eight years ahead of the game becoming officially professional.

Yes and the Aussies were close behind them in their preparation too. The rest of us were a long way behind and took a good decade after to catch up.

I remember that interview Jiffy did with the beeb on the bridge in Cardiff City center with the stadium overlooking, they were not allowed inside as he had defected to league, but he gave a scathing attack on the WRU.

We had just come back from a tour of hell, and he was trying to tell the WRU what the Australians were doing, and how we needed to follow suit. They would not listen. It was one of the major reasons why he went to league. Then we had a mass exodus of players who wanted to be pro and went to league, it was a dark time for Welsh rugby.

Collapse2005 wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Well there is no doubt Wales are good enough. Their challenge is a terrible record v the SH sides. Irelands challenge is a poor record in 1/4 finals.

Yes but there have been improvements four wins in a row vs SA and beat the Aussies last time after many narrow loses gives us hope anyway.  Despite that I think SA will be a lot better this year, maybe not so for the Aussie but they still have some cracking players

It’s going to be tough for everyone the competition is very close.

Yes there have you are right but you could easily counter argue that one 1 point scrappy win at home v Australia in the last 10 or so games isnt enough. Nor is zero wins v NZ nor the odd win v SA. Not trying to diminish the quality of this Welsh side but the must do better v SH teams.

Odd win v South Africa?! We’ve beaten them the last 4 games in a row. And won 5 out of the last 6 against them! Yes they’ve not been at their best. But that’s not the ‘odd win’.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Its more than zero wins v NZ in 29 games or one 1 point win v Australia in 14 games. Like I said you do not appear to have thought your comparison through.

You also referenced Ireland's record v six nations sides using the record v Wales as an example which in itself is a weak enough argument when Ireland's overall record in the 6n is solid enough while Wales' overall record v SH sides is weak. There are many way to pick apart your comparison, they all suggest you didn't think before you typed.

Finally for Ireland to reach its goal of a semi final it will not have to face Wales at all so the record v Wales is pretty close to being irrelevant.

Wales record v SA lately is quite good to be fair.

See above.

Ruck.co.uk wrote:England and New Zealand remain the favourites to win the Rugby World Cup in Japan.

However, Eddie Jones’ and Steven Hansen’s men are likely to meet in the semi-final if they both win their pools, which has allowed Ireland to emerge as shock favourites to reach the final.

https://www.ruck.co.uk/rugby-betting-northern-hemisphere-side-now-favourites-reach-rugby-world-cup-final/

New Zealand v Ireland would be the perfect final.

The bad news for us is Jonny Sexton is injured and will probably miss all the warm up games.

Collapse2005 wrote:New Zealand v Ireland would be the perfect final.

The bad news for us is Jonny Sexton is injured and will probably miss all the warm up games.

Not necessarily a bad thing, teams have been known to keep their star ten in cotton wool all the way to the knockout stages before.

Collapse2005 wrote:New Zealand v Ireland would be the perfect final.

The bad news for us is Jonny Sexton is injured and will probably miss all the warm up games.

More like Wales vs New Zealand.

Not good. I don’t think any of your other 10s can trouble us.

mikey_dragon wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:New Zealand v Ireland would be the perfect final.

The bad news for us is Jonny Sexton is injured and will probably miss all the warm up games.

More like Wales vs New Zealand.

Not good. I don’t think any of your other 10s can trouble us.

You don't rate Carbery?

maestegmafia wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:New Zealand v Ireland would be the perfect final.

The bad news for us is Jonny Sexton is injured and will probably miss all the warm up games.

Not necessarily a bad thing, teams have been known to keep their star ten in cotton wool all the way to the knockout stages before.

True, but he is getting Carter like in terms of injury frequency. But overall, probably a good thing, provided he recovers 100%. Just over 8 weeks to the first pool matches...getting close now.

maestegmafia wrote:

Ruck.co.uk wrote:England and New Zealand remain the favourites to win the Rugby World Cup in Japan.

However,  Eddie Jones’ and Steven Hansen’s men are likely to meet in the semi-final if they both win their pools, which has allowed Ireland to emerge as shock favourites to reach the final.

https://www.ruck.co.uk/rugby-betting-northern-hemisphere-side-now-favourites-reach-rugby-world-cup-final/

Big assumption over South Africa, who like France have won matches and in SAs case titles they werent favourites to.

The Oracle wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:Well there is no doubt Wales are good enough. Their challenge is a terrible record v the SH sides. Irelands challenge is a poor record in 1/4 finals.

Yes but there have been improvements four wins in a row vs SA and beat the Aussies last time after many narrow loses gives us hope anyway.  Despite that I think SA will be a lot better this year, maybe not so for the Aussie but they still have some cracking players

It’s going to be tough for everyone the competition is very close.

Yes there have you are right but you could easily counter argue that one 1 point scrappy win at home v Australia in the last 10 or so games isnt enough. Nor is zero wins v NZ nor the odd win v SA. Not trying to diminish the quality of this Welsh side but the must do better v SH teams.

Odd win v South Africa?! We’ve beaten them the last 4 games in a row. And won 5 out of the last 6 against them! Yes they’ve not been at their best. But that’s not the ‘odd win’.

Perhaps, but world cups are different, particularly in SAs case.

When both teams walk out onto the field in a World cup knockout, they both take their rugby history in its entirety out there with them, something that doesnt happen at AI time, and its then when the reality truly kicks in...