The Ashes - official thread

[Gooseberry]

First topic message reminder :

SR that's not how mental fatigue works.
Also Stokes had a long break last year ...which he came back from err ...mentaly fatigued. Buttler and Bairstow haven't had that luxury.

But anyway it's not a case of "attitude" , ask Trott and Trescothick.

[Gooseberry]

Whereas Buttler who is picked as and allowed to concentrate on his batting alone and gets to hide down the order regardless is judged on what exactly?

Staying himself that he's frazzled after the world cup?

Bairstows sustained form is a problem. But noone has come in and done better than him up or down the order.

The notion that you could have Foakes as a specialist keeper and Curran as a bowler whilst fixing the issue with everyone batting too high is frankly ridiculous.

In my opinion

[guildfordbat]

Whilst I would support Foakes being a ''class'' keeper, his form behind the stumps this season - and particularly in the current t20s from what I've been told from Oval regulars I would trust (I haven't been to any t20s myself) - has been below his usual extremely high levels. That's not to say he shouldn't remain in the selectors' thoughts but I'm doubtful it's the ideal time to recall him.

Although I appreciate it's because of his glove work that some are pushing for him to be in the side, it's probably worth noting as well that Foakes' batting in all formats this season has been pretty ordinary. All in all, I would stick with Bairstow for now.

[VTR]

Bairstow can't be that bad, scored back to back World Cup hundreds, in must win games. Yes a different format, but it takes a quality player to do that. Maybe he does need a break/rest, but would not be a complete axing I expect. Its not like he's a Ravi Bopara level player

[guildfordbat]

It might give an idea of what the pitch is like if it suits a preconceived idea but it was a game dominated by seamers where Sodhi barely bowled so a bit disingenuous to suggest it was a spinners pitch when it was not.

Possibly to do with the fact that NZ were behind the game, he got smacked out the attack in the first innings and was expensive in the second innings as well? Plus the seamers were going well. All his second innings overs would have been on Day 3/4 rather than Day 4/5 that England and Leach bowled on.

In many ways, that's a parallel to the test just played. The team batting first nullified the home spinner in the third innings and got well ahead of the game. The difference is Lyon tore through England to win the game, Leach didn't tear through New Zealand. In fact, 2 wickets in 32 overs is pretty poor going.

This doesn't mean that Leach is worse than Ali, but it also doesn't mean his selection is a no-brainer.

Just to belatedly add - sad but right imo that Moeen has been dropped. I don't see how anyone can believe in him currently given his own self-belief has so obviously gone.

In a similar way to Robbo, I have no great problem with Leach's selection but do feel it owes quite a bit to Moeen's poor form and the lack of alternative options than him (Leach) being a world beater. Happy to be proved wrong but do suspect there's a bit of hype and wishful thinking about the selection of a player who has only bowled three expensive overs in the last month. I don't recall there being many demands here or elsewhere for him to have been chosen for the first test.

[Duty281]

Bairstow's slump is starting to look permanent. Nine of his last 16 test innings have seen him dismissed for single figure scores (he's currently on a run of five consecutive single figure scores). Of the last seven innings where he got into double figures, he was dismissed for 19 or fewer four times.

In test cricket in 2017 he averaged 34, in 2018 this went down to 30, and in 2019 so far he's averaging 14.

We're approaching the stage where he might have to be dropped purely so he can recharge and then return to try to arrest this severe decline, otherwise he could up mentally broken in test cricket (if he isn't already).

[Gooseberry]

Guilford ...The only hype is that leach has only bowled 3 experienced overs in the last month, whereas Moeen has bowled the best part of 100.

I don't think anyone's casting him as the archer ( did someone mention overhauling?) Just someone who is clearly a more reliable workman spinner than Moeen and who could offer a different challenge to Smith.
There's pressure from Moeen to be dropped. And a replacement who can make a difference. Even more so with a likely flat wicket at Lord's and the need to bowl some bulk overs.

If Foakes were in the sort of Nick with the bat and confidence with the gloves he had last year I'd buy him as a viable replacement for Bairstow on the same basis. But he isn't.
There's also a big difference between resting someone and dropping them.

I also feel that Denly ( never good enough) and Buttlers places should be under at least equal scrutiny. Both were picked as out and out specialists and are struggling. In Buttlers case he cant hold justify a spot up the order and is putting pressure on the all rounders to do so.

Malan Pope and Sibley are all possible. I suspect they will get a go over the winter if not this summer when many of the multi format players are given a break.

Of course there will be a new Bayliss by then as well ( possibly) which could leave the likes of Bairstow out of favour if they don't buck up. But I fancy the current leadership won't suddenly shift to the kind of revolving door selections we had in the 89 ashes and beyond where 5 players could change in a game.

I guess overall I don't understand the level of shock some people have that Bairstows still in the side. It a maybe disappointing that he's not doing better but that doesnt mean that chuck Norris is going to turn up next week. We have Archer for that.

[sirfredperry]

If you look at the weather forecast for London over the next few days there must be a doubt as to whether there'll be enough cricket to get a result at Lord's.

Wouldn't be so bad if England were 1-0 up, although it will spare us the ignominy of being two down after two.

[Gooseberry]

Yeah its looking like Wednesday might be a wash out sadly.

[No name Bertie]

So take a draw and get James Anderson fit for the third test.

[Soul Requiem]

So take a draw and get James Anderson fit for the third test.

He'll have time for a match before that when exactly?

[Duty281]

If you look at the weather forecast for London over the next few days there must be a doubt as to whether there'll be enough cricket to get a result at Lord's.

Wouldn't be so bad if England were 1-0 up, although it will spare us the ignominy of being two down after two.

Yep, Wednesday and Saturday look like being mostly washed-out, so the draw is now nearly evens on the exchanges.

A draw at Lord's would be a great result for England and keep the series alive.

[Duty281]

So take a draw and get James Anderson fit for the third test.

He has zero hope of being fit for the third test and a 99% chance of not playing another game in the series. It's likely his England career is over.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

So take a draw and get James Anderson fit for the third test.

He has zero hope of being fit for the third test and a 99% chance of not playing another game in the series. It's likely his England career is over.

Not wishing to place the obituary on his career, but it does look very unlikely he'll play again in the rest of the series. This was a completely new calf injury to the other one, which is not good!

Hopefully isn't the end of his career - would be good for him to be able to go out in a similar way to Cook, on his own terms rather than due to an injury.

[KP_fan]

I have seen so many top bowlers for their country go out for good in a bad way due to injuries
Zaheer was India's best bowler until the end and on days when his body would hold,,,but a time came when the selectors could not trust that he could go thru a test match holding his hamstrings / calf /back muscles intact
Ditto Nehra, Steyn, Ryan Harris and probably a few other top seamers fit that list.

It would be sad if Anderson too would go out in the same way......and although the boots of such an all-time great champion are not easy to fill....
Atleast now Eng has Archer, Woakes, and a few other young seamers plus the experienced Broad and Stokes around.....the timing is not too bad.

A match forced into a draw through rains is not good for the game....but Eng's gotta be careful not to go in mind-set relying on rain.

Because its easy to win the toss, bat first and be bowled out in 2 sessions and lose the game by an inning without the opposition enforcing a follow-on...in about 3.5 days

[Gooseberry]

Given the two batting line ups either team would be daft to play for a draw. Theres only one day currently that looks like it will be badly affected and forecasts are very changeable.

In terms of Anderson...his own terms wouldve been the end of the Ashes. Im not sure he would want to tour again in the winter for a bunch of low key games likely with a poor and further weakened England. Hes done very well to get this far.

[robbo277]

If you look at the weather forecast for London over the next few days there must be a doubt as to whether there'll be enough cricket to get a result at Lord's.

Wouldn't be so bad if England were 1-0 up, although it will spare us the ignominy of being two down after two.

Yep, Wednesday and Saturday look like being mostly washed-out, so the draw is now nearly evens on the exchanges.

A draw at Lord's would be a great result for England and keep the series alive.

If this is a draw Australia just need 1 more win to retain the urn. Given we don't really draw games (weather permitting) that would leave us needing to win the last 3.

I'd rather have a shot at beating Australia at Lords so I wouldn't call it a great result to be rained off, although you can ask me again on Friday evening if I'd feel the same!

[Steffan]

I was going to cheer on England in the second test. But you beat us in the rugby friendly yesterday so I am not going to now

[Gooseberry]

It's OK the Ashes are just friendlies anyway. Ask Steve Smith.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Expecting absolutely no play on Wednesday. Suspect there will be clouds around the whole of the test. Shame the best bowler in those conditions is being talked about like an old, retired man.

[Gooseberry]

Expecting absolutely no play on Wednesday. Suspect there will be clouds around the whole of the test. Shame the best bowler in those conditions is being talked about like an old, retired man.

Currans not that old 

[compelling and rich]

any news on the Australia team? do they not know ive got to put my predictions in for the tipping competition.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

any news on the Australia team? do they not know ive got to put my predictions in for the tipping competition.  

Haven't seen anything, the general consensus was it would just be Starc in for Siddle...much like England can't see them altering the batting order yet

[compelling and rich]

any news on the Australia team? do they not know ive got to put my predictions in for the tipping competition.  

Haven't seen anything, the general consensus was it would just be Starc in for Siddle...much like England can't see them altering the batting order yet

hope so, had a bet on smith top batsmen and starc top bowler at 40/1 before realised he was getting dropped for the first test.

one of the double looks home and hosed already but starc is going have to bowl very well to catch up with likes of lyon and cummins

[Gooseberry]

Given its going to be a shortened game they can get away with that change. But if they were picking for a 5 day match on a flat pitch having a bowling line up of 3 quicks and a spinner with only junk part timers would be a huge risk. England got caught short with 5 front line bowlers and two decent back up spinners. Its a pity for England they are unlikely to get a chance to exploit this until too late in the series but Aus do have an issue with their lack of an all rounder worth a place in the side. 

For this game Starc certainly would make some sense, although Siddle is the one youd think more able to make use of the overcast conditions. But picking an all out strike attack gives Aus the improved chance of blasting England out quickly to force a result in the 3.5 days of play we will probably get. There was certainly a feeling he was missed in Englands first innings last test.

Cummins is talking up his ability to bowl through all 5 tests, whilst at the same time the coach is suggesting that Archer wont be able to last a game if they grind him down. if Aus do stick with their 4 bowlers (even more so if Starc comes in for Siddle) policy there will be a lot of load on Cummins, much more so than Archer even if theres a perception that England are reliant on him to turn the Ashes around. 


Latest weather shows a fairly high chance of rain pretty much all day tomorrow, good day Thursday, small chance of some disruption Friday, moderate chance of rain Saturday increasing as the day goes on, and good weather Sunday. So chances are it will be a draw regardless of who's selected and how bad the batting is. Best points for the tipping competition might come from the toss, could even be a bowl first pitch.

[guildfordbat]

any news on the Australia team? do they not know ive got to put my predictions in for the tipping competition.  

Hi Compelling - you may have to wait even longer. Keep in mind that the teams don't need to be confirmed until just before the toss. If it's lashing down tomorrow as expected, the toss could be put back a day.

Btw, I appreciate what Goose says in his last post but you need to be wary about picking a team for expected weather.

[Duty281]

We'll probably get in about 270-300 overs of play. Two days look fine (Thursday/Sunday), one day looks a washout (Wednesday), two days will be interrupted (Friday/Saturday), though these forecasts tend to get better, not worse.

Given England's batting struggles, I think that's just enough time to force a result and I think Australia are a value shot at 11/4 (though that price will likely go further out after tomorrow's rain).

[Gooseberry]

BBC has a fun piece about Leach turning out for his local club (Taunton Deane) during the last test because he had nothing better to do. Must be doubly annoying for Somerset not having him available yet he can play as an amateur elsewhere! 
Means that despite probably batting at 11 in this test his last two scores will have been 56 and 92 (prior to that it was 0,0, 1,5, 2,3,5,5,9, 0, 6, DNB ... cant easily find the records before that but he hadn't made double figures since April at least in any form)

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Oh wow - the Aussies have named a 12 man squad, and have left out Pattinson! So they'll be picking 3 from Cummins, Siddle, Starc and Hazlewood.

Did not see that coming

[Soul Requiem]

Siddle has to play if it's a three man pace attack, the chances of one of the others breaking down is far too high.

[Jetty]

At Lords
2 games 7 wickets at 40.14 Siddle
2 games 2 wickets at 51.00 Starc
1 game 5 wickets at 17.50 Hazelwood

I'd open with Cummins and Hazelwood and play Starc.

Who is getting the new ball Woakes or Archer?

[LondonTiger]

BBC has a fun piece about Leach turning out for his local club (Taunton Deane) during the last test because he had nothing better to do. Must be doubly annoying for Somerset not having him available yet he can play as an amateur elsewhere! 
Means that despite probably batting at 11 in this test his last two scores will have been 56 and 92 (prior to that it was 0,0, 1,5, 2,3,5,5,9, 0, 6, DNB ... cant easily find the records before that but he hadn't made double figures since April at least in any form)

He was available for Somerset I thought, just they do not pick him for T20. (Checking his record he has never played a T20 game, and just 16 List A matches)

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

At Lords
2 games 7 wickets at 40.14 Siddle
2 games 2 wickets at 51.00 Starc
1 game 5 wickets at 17.50 Hazelwood

I'd open with Cummins and Hazelwood and play Starc.

Who is getting the new ball Woakes or Archer?

Has to be Woakes at Lords.

[Soul Requiem]

Broad and Woakes with the new ball, Archer more likely to get something out of the pitch with an older ball.

[JDizzle]

Broad and Woakes with the new ball, Archer more likely to get something out of the pitch with an older ball.

Plus, although it does require early wickets, you are getting the freshest possible version of Jofra to have a pop at Smith.

[Duty281]

Not too surprised to see Pattinson rested, but I am surprised to see that it's likely that Starc will be the 12th man for the second test.

[Gooseberry]

Id agree with Woakes Broad, their partnership has been incredible to date even with the second innings at Edgbaston. Archer as first change. 

For Starc it is a stark choice, I agree its difficult to accommodate him unless they are willing to pick Mitch Marsh as well. This game being weather affected though does make it less risky to go with a 3 man pace attack. It could be argued that Siddles age and injury record makes him a risk too of course. Its one of the reasons its a shame England couldn't bat longer and add to the heavy load he and Cummins took in the first innings.

Maybe the surprise about starc still being left out is because of the weight of media bandwagon behind him rather than looking at the reality of balancing a side?

[Duty281]

Starc's left arm action can be invaluable at Lord's, with the slope, and he bowled magnificently at that ground during the World Cup (admittedly in a different format). He also generates fantastic bounce which is another potent weapon at Lord's.

Just surprised to see him out of the loop for two tests in a row.

[robbo277]

Moeen Ali to take an extended break from all cricket.

[Duty281]

Moeen Ali to take an extended break from all cricket.

That could mean retirement for someone of Ali's age and the years he's had at the top of the game.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Moeen Ali to take an extended break from all cricket.

That could mean retirement for someone of Ali's age and the years he's had at the top of the game.

Duty you're killing off everyone this summer

[Soul Requiem]

Moeen Ali to take an extended break from all cricket.

Short is extended now?

[robbo277]

Moeen Ali to take an extended break from all cricket.

Short is extended now?

I was told extended, BBC says short.

To clarify it's not a set timeframe, it's at his discretion when he returns.

[Gooseberry]

Some would argue he stopped playing cricket after the Sri Lanka tour

[Duty281]

Moeen Ali to take an extended break from all cricket.

That could mean retirement for someone of Ali's age and the years he's had at the top of the game.

Duty you're killing off everyone this summer

We're doooooooomed!

[Gooseberry]

Jokes aside and both gives not had that many years on the international circuit Mo certainly would be pushing it even for a spinner to have lasted another cup cycle and would be 34 at the T20 one.
It'll be interesting to see what happens this winter with him, if he hasn't returned at county level and for the 100 then it'll be hard to select him even if they wanted him. That would just leave the T20 circuit and at a lower price than he commanded previously.
Being dropped from the world cup side must have been a big blow to him and to lose his test place as well in what should have been the crowning glories of his career is a hell of a kicking for anyone to take. Does he have the motivation to pull himself back into form and the drive to put himself through another cycle of highs and lows an potentially getting dropped again?
There will be a new England coach too. One who doesnt have the same loyalty and connection to him. They may well wish to move on from a guy who's at the end of his career regardless.
If he has got his head straight in time fighting for a place in the end of season T20s is could well be his last chance of playing for England again either through choice or selection. If he gets a chance and does well he could have another shot, but his prospects are looking bleak right now despite all the previous times he's bounced back from hard times.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Despite Worcestershire sparking talk of burnout by stating that the spin‑bowling all‑rounder was taking “a short break from action” – the head coach, Alex Gidman, spoke of “a little time away from the middle recharging his batteries” – he is simply sitting out the T20 Blast fixtures against Derbyshire and Durham this week.

He's basically been netting only with the red ball and is going to focus on that stuff for a spell.

[Gooseberry]

Fair enough then. If he's skipping the Blast games that's going to make his selection for the T20 international series harder. You'd assume this decision has been made on discussion with the England leadership ( hope) and where they see his international future lying ( if he has one at all) as well as him actually needing the break.

Its nothing like the sort of open ended break that was hinted at in the initial reports mind, more just a couple of weeks down the pub having a lemonade.

The next tests are in NZ which will be a tough place to visit in any format .. I suspect the opposition will be fired up for it at least.
And then South Africa who are a declining force and somewhere Mo had one of his golden series last time they went.

It's going to be hard to prove he's worth backing, but at the same time if he's been out of the line for a while unlike Roy, Root, stokes, Buttler, bairstow and Woakes who have put in 3 format rotations for a couple of years solid his experience would be handy if his heads straight.

Anyway forecast is even worse for tomorrow and it's unlikely we will get much if any play. If England do bat at some point there might be a strategic drive to bat aggressively and try to force the chance of a result, but I don't see them doing that when the entire batting line up ( except burns who couldn't score fast even if he wanted to) is still trying to prove they aren't just flat track one day sloggers.

[LondonTiger]

Suggestions in the Times today that Curran and Archer likely to come in with Denly missing out if we get play today and perhaps Leach missing out if today is a wash out.

[Duty281]

Curran in for Denly would be a good and correct call.

If the ground doesn't get too saturated, there might be a chance of squeezing a couple of hours of play in this evening, but let's wait and see.

[robbo277]

Whenever it rains at Lords we're often told how brilliant the drainage is, so if the rain holds off we should hopefully get some play.

I think Curran for Denly with Stokes as a batting all rounder / shock bowler would be a better line-up, especially if Denly is at 4 anyway.

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