The Ashes - official thread

[KP_fan]

First topic message reminder :

Cummins was out no doubt about that, not sure what he was complaining about to be honest, a clear noise and deviation off the bat.

why were there 2 deviations?
one clearly before the ball had passed the bat and nothing seemed to be touching anything then...and the second when ball passes the bat.
Both deviations looking similar...put a question mark over the correct functioning of Snicko

that said 3rd umpire could have done nothing different than upholding the onfield ump

[Afro]

hope to arrive at Heathrow to find England 350/3 in reply

Inevitably after we drop to 20/3, with Burns, Root and Roy out cheapily, and Denly on 80 from 400 balls and Stokes on 250 from 350 balls

[No name Bertie]

I suppose a good predictor for the 1st innings score of England is going to be "Australian first innings score" minus "Steve Smith's first innings score".

[robbo277]

I suppose a good predictor for the 1st innings score of England is going to be "Australian first innings score" minus "Steve Smith's first innings score".

Right now we're 200/6 then which is ominously familiar.

[robbo277]

An end well and truly open now then. Starc, Lyon, Hazelwood, need to get those 3 quickly. Leave Smith high and dry.

[Duty281]

Smith's concussion has likely cost him the chance to be the first man ever in an Ashes series to score 1,000+ runs. Cost him three innings which could have made the difference - he's currently on 559 runs...yes from just the four innings he's played! Meanwhile his overall test average has just exceeded 65.

[Gooseberry]

Kholis figures last summer proved what a world class talent he really is standing out against two teams who collectively struggled with the bat.

Smith's utterly left him in the shadows with this performance. Its ine thing to score a lot of runs, and when his average first started climbing there was a lot of nay saying and flat track bully calls.
To come to England and score this many runs soon consistently in conditions everyone else is struggling with shows he really is growing into.

It's a testament to Englanda bowling and damnation of the rest of Australias batting that theres still a series to be played for and that England aren't absolutely snookered in this test yet.

A draw is still possible. Smith getting ran over by the ambulance taking englands seam bowlers to hospital is still possible.

[robbo277]

Overton's bowled a decent spell here for 7 overs after tea to get 1-16, but time for Broad to attack the left hander or Archer to attack the tailender (both Starc, I think England have given up on Smith as he reaches 199*).

[Duty281]

Now Starc taking Broad apart with the bat. Seems a declaration is soon-ish?

[Duty281]

Smith's out! Well he made 211, so it doesn't really matter.

[robbo277]

Scoring rate has become an issue for England, even more than it was earlier in the innings. Basically Australia's scoring rate has taken the rain we've had out the game, and they're where they should be if they'd batted another 40 overs.

If England can bat a similar 120-130 overs, Australia will come out to bat again on the morning of Day 4, but that could be with a lead of around 100. They could quickly get to 300 lead and have over a day left at us.

The draw is still evens, but England will have to bat very, very well to get there.

[Duty281]

497/8 declared. Time for the masterplan of moving Denly to open to be unleashed.

Can't see England getting out of this one, unless Mother Nature intervenes or Stokes produces more heroics.

[robbo277]

We questioned the selectors juggling the bowlers without changing the batsmen this test. The bowlers haven't come off so the batsmen need to repay the faith the selectors have shown in them. Realistically we need two tons to stay in this game.

[Duty281]

Denly plays an innings which shows how far below test class he actually is (yes, you've probably seen that one before).

Should have recalled the great man, or given Sibley a chance.

[Soul Requiem]

Kholis figures last summer proved what a world class talent he really is standing out against two teams who collectively struggled with the bat.

Smith's utterly left him in the shadows with this performance. Its ine thing to score a lot of runs, and when his average first started climbing there was a lot of nay saying and flat track bully calls.
To come to England and score this many runs soon consistently in conditions everyone else is struggling with shows he really is growing into.

It's a testament to Englanda bowling and damnation of the rest of Australias batting that theres still a series to be played for and that England aren't absolutely snookered in this test yet.

A draw is still possible. Smith getting ran over by the ambulance taking englands seam bowlers to hospital is still possible.

I'd argue that Kohli had far trickier conditions to contend with and James Anderson so a purely numerical comparison isn't a fair one. That is the most frustrating thing about this series the lack of movement through the air, it's played into his hands perfectly.

[VTR]

Denly tries his best but just can't cut it. That 50 last time out was important but he could have been out twenty times. Selectors should have seen that and kept him lower down the order at best. No, we put him up to open. Clueless stuff

[Soul Requiem]

We'll see major changes to the batting after this series, halfway through an ashes probably isn't the best time to bring in Sibley and Pope.

[Duty281]

Some rain around tomorrow morning, but even with that there's still likely to be another 250 overs in this test which is surely enough for Australia to clinch victory.

England need to bat another 120 overs in this innings to save this, which is unlikely to say the least. Lyon's going to perform a demolition job on this pitch.

[KP_fan]

I don't see a lot of probability of Eng saving this.
If it rains......Aus will enforce follow-on
If Eng avoid follow-on....and it rains....Aus will bat only a little bit and on last day 2 sessions might be enuf to bowl them out.

For Eng to avoid a defeat they need to bat BIG in first inning and get to nearly 400 and for that Root and Stokes both have to score....it's possible...but chances of a team escaping is when about 5 guys are performing with the bat and not juts 1.5

[JDizzle]

Denly tries his best but just can't cut it. That 50 last time out was important but he could have been out twenty times. Selectors should have seen that and kept him lower down the order at best. No, we put him up to open. Clueless stuff

Yep - somehow managed to allow the fact Stokes won a Test Match single handedly let the rest of the batting line up off the hook. Could have had a Trott 2009 moment!

[king_carlos]

We'll see major changes to the batting after this series, halfway through an ashes probably isn't the best time to bring in Sibley and Pope.

Caught in two minds with this. On the one hand if they better options for after this series they are probably better options now. On the other it is a very high pressure environment to come into a side so can see the argument you're making, Soul.

I'd have certainly 'rested' Buttler and brought Pope in at 6. At the top of the order I am unconvinced by most the opening options though.

Sibley has earned the chance he will surely get in NZ but I'm not convinced he has the technique to score consistently. That big step across his stumps can make him an LBW magnet when out of form. Lots of us would've said that about Smith in the not too distant past though...

[Gooseberry]

Denly tries his best but just can't cut it. That 50 last time out was important but he could have been out twenty times. Selectors should have seen that and kept him lower down the order at best. No, we put him up to open. Clueless stuff

Yep - somehow managed to allow the fact Stokes won a Test Match single handedly let the rest of the batting line up off the hook. Could have had a Trott 2009 moment!

Denly should never have been playing test cricket in the first place.

Lost all faith in Ed Smith and Root as leadership after this fiasco. Bayliss keeps some credit for the world cup. But overall its an utter shambles.

[sirfredperry]

Rain the best hope for England now - and lots of it. Smith's stats beginning to look almost Bradmanesque. Has anyone since the Don made as many as Smith in his first four innings of an Ashes series?

Only good thing about having a nightwatchman in is that the rest of the England batsmen revert to a batting order more suited to their styles.

My last England score prediction on this thread suggested they would be all out for 132 in the final innings at Headingley. So I'm making no forecast this time. Suffice to say England will probably be in deep doggy do by the close on Friday.

[VTR]

Might lose some play today but probably will get quite a few overs in still, then two dry days. Weather won't save England, but we have some real form players like Roy and Buttler to come in and smash hundreds, so it will all be OK. Note: sarcasm

[compelling and rich]

yeah its really grim out there currently, but its supposed to clear up in the afternoon

[sirfredperry]

Well at least it looks like we'll lose some play to the weather today. But probably not enough.

[Gooseberry]

If we lose a session today that's around 240 overs left right?
If England can somehow survive 120 of them that will leave them let's say 100 behind with 120 left . Aus bat aggressively for 50 to give a lead over 300 with 70 left. It's not impossible to draw from that but unlikely. I'm in agreement with the sentiment that England are likely to crack under the pressure and get out pretty cheaply first dig ending any hope.
This also all assumes that Stokes can bat fine.

The worst England test side in a long time. The ridiculous list of bowler injuries hasn't helped especially in game ones but given the huge flaws in the Aus side it's pretty depressing. The Aus tail scoring so many sums up how limp England have been most of this series.

There will be a revolution coming in the England side. Players will need to be rotated this winter and a new coach. Will there be a new captain Stokes?
I'd had him written off because of the charges last year but theres a lot of talking up of his character going on at the moment that makes me wonder.
Noones going to sack Root but I can imagine him stepping aside dependant on the new coach. He has to share some culpability for the decisions around the team make up and the poor morale.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

All rounder in both forms and captain? I suppose it is only he and Root who are sure of places, outside of Archer and Broad. I really like Broad, but I don't think I'd want him in charge of a review system...

I'd suspect Burns, Root, Stokes, Archer,, Broad are absolute definites for the short term, but that doesn't mean they'll all tour. Pressure on Jos, YJB, Woakes.

I think Root deserves a chance with a new coach who cares about Tests and with a new side, because he is quite lost in this shuffle anyway.

[Afro]

Is there anybody in the county championship who is a proven captain and is scoring a reasonable number of runs.

Might be time to think outside of pick your best XI and then select the captain from that. Might be better to pick someone who won't be your best batsman and might not get in the side on batting ability alone, but will still score a fair number of runs and is a bloody good captain.

Burns and Vince (and Abell although I might be biase) are the only that spring to mind

[Duty281]

Well at least it looks like we'll lose some play to the weather today. But probably not enough.

Yeah, this is set to be the last downpour of rain for the rest of the test, with the afternoon and the weekend looking very dry.

[robbo277]

Equation doesn't change for England. We need to be batting by lunchtime tomorrow at the very least - and not following on.

The good thing is hopefully if we have two sunny days the pitch will dry out and become quite good for batting on, without being overly worn because we haven't had 3 full days play.

[compelling and rich]

Is there anybody in the county championship who is a proven captain and is scoring a reasonable number of runs.

Might be time to think outside of pick your best XI and then select the captain from that. Might be better to pick someone who won't be your best batsman and might not get in the side on batting ability alone, but will still score a fair number of runs and is a bloody good captain.

Burns and Vince (and Abell although I might be biase) are the only that spring to mind

cough* cook

[Gooseberry]

Vince wouldnt carry the team with him. A captain has to have credibility with the players hes leading. 

Broad would be a very short term pick, as well as he has done in this series I cant see him keeping going till Anderson age and he certainly wont be playing every match overseas after this winter. It might be a smart move though as a temporary solution to allow Root a break without making a decision on the captaincy or having a heir apparent waiting in the wings. Root will need to sit out something this winter, his load over the past few years has been ridiculous. 

Bairstow is the only other option really. Burns maybe if he were anywhere near cementing himself as a long term test regular, but I just dont see that. 

Rain should clear up soon with play after what would have been lunch by the looks of it. Its hard to see England saving this but the captaincy debate my be a moot point off the pull off another (two) miracles and win the Ashes back.

[Afro]

Burns maybe if he were anywhere near cementing himself as a long term test regular, but I just dont see that. 

But if we were saying they didn't need to be guaranteed a spot as a batsman alone, but were a good captain scoring a reasonable amount of runs, he might be a good choice.

Having done a google, there's also Dawid Malan and also Sam Northeast who captained Kent before he moved to Hants

[Soul Requiem]

Carrying a captain can work if you've got Boycott, Gooch and Gower in your batting line up with Botham and Willis in the team too but less so when you don't have that luxury.

[LondonTiger]

Stokes is the official vice captain (Buttler the vice,vice captain it seems). Would anyone want to burden him with the captaincy though?

Not sure if we have any outstanding tactical captains in County Cricket right now. The emergence of coaches and Directors of Cricket has certainly reduced the importance of the role.

[Afro]

What about if having that captain, means your best batsman doesn't need to worry about batting and scores runs instead.

In my mind, if option one is Roy scoring 10 and Root scoring 20, then you only need captain scoring 10 and Root scoring 21 for option 2 to be better.

And that's before you factor in whether that captain gets more out of the bowlers

[Gooseberry]

...or in Australias case if you have Steve Smith

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Root is fine to continue, as Dolph points out working with a coach who actually has a clue about test cricket will probably help him and I'm not sure he's horrible anyways - not exactly his fault Roy dropped Paine and Leach overstepped when he got Smith out.

The only real alternatives in tests would be Broad imo. Really would not want to burden Stokes with it, he already has enough on his plate as it is, it'd feel a bit Flintoff-era to appoint him tbh

[robbo277]

What about if having that captain, means your best batsman doesn't need to worry about batting and scores runs instead.

In my mind, if option one is Roy scoring 10 and Root scoring 20, then you only need captain scoring 10 and Root scoring 21 for option 2 to be better.

And that's before you factor in whether that captain gets more out of the bowlers

Make your worst batsman your captain? Because the downside risk will be the lowest and the upside risk the greatest.

[Afro]

I'm not overly convinced by Root's use of the bowlers and its no secret his average is significantly lower as captain than before it.

He never strikes me as a natural leader either. I always feel he got the job as he was our best player and there wasn't anyone else obvious or who was guaranteed their spot

[Gooseberry]

What about if having that captain, means your best batsman doesn't need to worry about batting and scores runs instead.

In my mind, if option one is Roy scoring 10 and Root scoring 20, then you only need captain scoring 10 and Root scoring 21 for option 2 to be better.

And that's before you factor in whether that captain gets more out of the bowlers

You think Broads going to value the opinions of a guy who is scoring less runs than him and who has no test experience? The captain has to be someone with credibility to lead the side. You could just about make that argument for Burns, but the leaders in there are Broad, Stokes, Buttler and Bairstow. Of those Buttler isnt secure and only Broad wont need resting over the winter.

(Of course if Ed Smith joined Bayliss and Root in the dole queue then we might not have Roy in the side at all and Sibley could come in to average 25, which would be a lot better than what we have. )

There was a  lot to see and Root could of course soldier on. There was a lot of speculation regarding Cook at different times in his career, and then it was argued he went too soon. 

I honestly think the best course would be to rest Root for the first (NZ?) series and make broad temporary captain with Stokes as VC. then see what the new coach and Root think longer term. 

Bit of armchair speculation to pass the rainy morning of course. Lord only knows whats going to actually happen.

[Afro]

What about if having that captain, means your best batsman doesn't need to worry about batting and scores runs instead.

In my mind, if option one is Roy scoring 10 and Root scoring 20, then you only need captain scoring 10 and Root scoring 21 for option 2 to be better.

And that's before you factor in whether that captain gets more out of the bowlers

Make your worst batsman your captain? Because the downside risk will be the lowest and the upside risk the greatest.

What is Roy like as a captain?

[Dolphin Ziggler]

It does seem very harsh on Root, all this.

Also, equations that look at this current team need remember that win, lose or draw, it isn't likely to be a team that stays together.

The Aussies (and PJ nad/or Alfie would give a much better indication here) are not enamoured with Paine, and certainly doesn't seem like he's any sort of long term choice. That knock will have done him some favours, but I think everyone knows why he is in the position he is: it ain't skill.

It is quite interesting to see the situation with Smith. They want him to be captain, that is abundantly clear, but it's an issue wrapped in turmoil. They've been lucky that England's management has made such a mess of this, really, otherwise they'd have serious questions to ask. Retaining here will likely give them a year to ignore those.

[Afro]

What about if having that captain, means your best batsman doesn't need to worry about batting and scores runs instead.

In my mind, if option one is Roy scoring 10 and Root scoring 20, then you only need captain scoring 10 and Root scoring 21 for option 2 to be better.

And that's before you factor in whether that captain gets more out of the bowlers

You think Broads going to value the opinions of a guy who is scoring less runs than him and who has no test experience? The captain has to be someone with credibility to lead the side. You could just about make that argument for Burns, but the leaders in there are Broad, Stokes, Buttler and Bairstow. Of those Buttler isnt secure and only Broad wont need resting over the winter.

(Of course if Ed Smith joined Bayliss and Root in the dole queue then we might not have Roy in the side at all and Sibley could come in to average 25, which would be a lot better than what we have. )

There was a  lot to see and Root could of course soldier on. There was a lot of speculation regarding Cook at different times in his career, and then it was argued he went too soon. 

I honestly think the best course would be to rest Root for the first (NZ?) series and make broad temporary captain with Stokes as VC. then see what the new coach and Root think longer term. 

Bit of armchair speculation to pass the rainy morning of course. Lord only knows whats going to actually happen.

A real leader would manage to get the team to follow and earn that credibility by nature of their leadership. But its all speculative as I think the conclusion is that such a person doesn't exist.

Interesting that you don't include Root in your list of current leaders?

Anyway Root will stay as captain, so the real focus needs to be on supporting him as much as possible, and helping him develop into a better captain. Whilst I might be speculating on here, that is what I would ultimately do if it was my call

[Dolphin Ziggler]

I should add, in all this, that I haven't been a fan of Bayliss for tests for a long while. I am starting to not particularly trust anyone who isn't playing, as they are setting the XI up for defeat.

How do you make people put any priority on CC cricket when you then pick Roy for tests because you have a feeling? Or Denly cos you know the bloke and like his attitude? It's somewhat worked with Buttler, but it is weird management.

[robbo277]

England need to unmuddle their test selection. Notwithstanding any resting of players, right now I'd say Burns, Root and Stokes make the team for the next series and I'd bat Root at 4.

We have a problem at the top of the order. Instead of shoe-horning a middle/lower middle player to play at 3, let's just play 3 county openers. If one of them goes first ball we still have two left. Whoever you think are the best openers, get them in at 2 and 3 with Burns. That could be Denly and Roy, it could be Sibley and Crawley, it could be Jennings, Robson or anyone else you care to name. And then say to get one of those top 3 spots you have to at least be playing county top 3, if not opening.

With Root and 4 and Stokes at 5, we've then got the opportunity to take a punt on someone at 6, and really it should be someone being groomed for higher up the order. Buttler has trialled there and dropped down the order - not good enough. He should be restored to 6 or dropped if he can't play there. Other front runners are Pope and Roy (if we agree he's a middle order player).

7 is your keeper/batsman. Bairstow, Foakes or potentially Buttler. Argue the collective merits of either.

Then pick your best three bowlers for the conditions (at least one seamer and one spinner). Can any of them bat at 8? If so they can play at 8 and you pick your fourth best bowler for the conditions. If not you pick your best bowling all rounder to fill in at 8.

This would give you a potential line-up of:

Burns, Sibley, Crawley, Root, Stokes, Pope, Bairstow, Woakes, Leach + 2 of Archer, Broad and Anderson depending on fitness, retirements, etc. Potentially even Archer and Stone together.

Assuming neither score heavily in the next 2 games, Roy and Buttler can go back to their counties and work out what they want to be. Top order players? Middle order players? Keeper-batsman (Buttler only)? White ball only? Choice is there's, but then they have to back it up by scoring Championship runs in their chosen role. Ideally at 4/5 in the Championship if they want to play 6 for England.

If one of your top 3 isn't cut out for it, you can bring in a Denly/Ballance/Jennings stopgap or look for the next cab off the rank. Don't create a problem to solve a problem by moving Root up. I still think Stokes could be a good long term option at 3, but if you want Root or Stokes there then it needs to be on their merits, not just because you have a gap.

Essentially, get our best batsman in their best positions so they can deliver match-winning performances. This will take the pressure off the weaker batsman who can just try and focus on their own game.

[sirfredperry]

Blast. They're actually starting....

[Duty281]

Around 78 overs still to be bowled today, if there's no further interruptions. Wouldn't back England to bat through that 78 overs, but they must to keep the Ashes alive.

[Dolphin Ziggler]

Can Woakes stay in the team if he's ineffective abroad?

[Dolphin Ziggler]

I suspect England are out for under 200

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