Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
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barragan
super_realist
4putt
LondonJonnyO
drive4show
I'm never wrong
Doc
SmithersJones
golfermartin
puligny
Maverick
oldshanker
theeldestboy
17 posters
The v2 Forum :: Sport :: Golf
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Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Hi all,
I run a golf Society here in Dubai, consisting today of 64 members of handicaps from 2 - 28. Each and every week, 52 weeks a year, we play at the Emirates Par 3 course, a beautiful 9 hole set-up consisting of holes between 90 and 200 yards, with an average of around 140. So in that respect, it's a genuine par 3 course rather than a pitch and putt. Via our website, we record every players hole-by-hole score, so in the past 2 years we have built a comprehensive set of pretty interesting golfing data.
In that time, a total of 125 players have played 1969 rounds of par 3 golf, or 17,721 individual holes. To date, we have seen 3 holes in one, meaning a (current) probability for an amateur golfer of of 1/5907. On that basis, an average amateur will have to play approximately 1475 rounds of golf to hit a hole in 1 - that's 36 rounds of golf per year for 40 years.
Of course, these are just numbers - the reality is that many "weaker" golfer will have multiple holes in one in their lifetime, while many scratch handicappers will never shoot one.
I personally have never hit one, and nor have i witnessed one. But i'll be out there again next weekend trying!
I run a golf Society here in Dubai, consisting today of 64 members of handicaps from 2 - 28. Each and every week, 52 weeks a year, we play at the Emirates Par 3 course, a beautiful 9 hole set-up consisting of holes between 90 and 200 yards, with an average of around 140. So in that respect, it's a genuine par 3 course rather than a pitch and putt. Via our website, we record every players hole-by-hole score, so in the past 2 years we have built a comprehensive set of pretty interesting golfing data.
In that time, a total of 125 players have played 1969 rounds of par 3 golf, or 17,721 individual holes. To date, we have seen 3 holes in one, meaning a (current) probability for an amateur golfer of of 1/5907. On that basis, an average amateur will have to play approximately 1475 rounds of golf to hit a hole in 1 - that's 36 rounds of golf per year for 40 years.
Of course, these are just numbers - the reality is that many "weaker" golfer will have multiple holes in one in their lifetime, while many scratch handicappers will never shoot one.
I personally have never hit one, and nor have i witnessed one. But i'll be out there again next weekend trying!
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
So that is the reason why!!
Thank you eldest. I was beginning to get a persecution complex. I mean, over 50 years of playing the game and nary the sniff of an ace - well a sniff maybe but that is all. I now realise that the long break I had from regular playing in the middle of that time frame has stacked the odds against me.
It does however mean, that I will need to be still playing quite well in to my eighties before it is my mathematical turn. Damn - I can only just shoot my age then.........now!
Thank you eldest. I was beginning to get a persecution complex. I mean, over 50 years of playing the game and nary the sniff of an ace - well a sniff maybe but that is all. I now realise that the long break I had from regular playing in the middle of that time frame has stacked the odds against me.
It does however mean, that I will need to be still playing quite well in to my eighties before it is my mathematical turn. Damn - I can only just shoot my age then.........now!
oldshanker- Posts : 656
Join date : 2011-01-27
Location : Cambridgeshire
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Don't worry oldshanker, your first ace is on the way! You've obviously "paid your dues" so when it comes yours will be more deserved than most!
Interestingly, 2 of our 3 holes-in-one came from 28 handicappers, and one from a ~4 handicapper.
Interestingly, 2 of our 3 holes-in-one came from 28 handicappers, and one from a ~4 handicapper.
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Strange thing aren't they aces.. I've been lucky enough to bag 2 of them, and they happened to be 2 of the worst shots i've hit at par 3's yet the many good ones barely scare the flag, theres a guy at our place who had 5 holes in one all on the same hole over a 7year period. Even playedin a county league game once with a guy that scored an ace on a par4 yet he couldn't hit a par 3 green for toffee.
My old man has been playing over 40years twice a week and has signed many a scorecard for others with aces on and ever had a sniff, it really is just pure luck yet it is the holy grail!
My old man has been playing over 40years twice a week and has signed many a scorecard for others with aces on and ever had a sniff, it really is just pure luck yet it is the holy grail!
Maverick- Posts : 2680
Join date : 2011-01-27
Age : 43
Location : Kent
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
of course each time someone bags multiple h-i-os the odds for everyone else lengthen! But then if a "virgin" golfer dies or just gives up maybe the reverse is true?
I've had one with a skanky shot - being called through by 4 ladies who were playing 9 holes. Got a kiss from each and they were only people in clubhouse when we got in - cost me a pot of tea!!!!
I've had one with a skanky shot - being called through by 4 ladies who were playing 9 holes. Got a kiss from each and they were only people in clubhouse when we got in - cost me a pot of tea!!!!
puligny- Posts : 1159
Join date : 2011-01-27
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I've had five in some 44 years. The first was an awful shot: a thin, tug that flew low and cut back towards the green, it hit the bank in front of the green, jump up, ran across the green and disappeared. But it was special nonetheless. The last one was the best - pitched past the pin and screwed back! It is also the only one in an official qualifying comp. The others have been in "friendly" matches or a society day in the case of the first. The worst one - if there can be such a thing - was on the sixteenth hole, playing on after having been hammered something like 5 & 4 as Captain in a Captain / Vice Challenge - no point in stopping early, the bar wasn't open!! (We do have 6 relatively short par 3s at our course though)
golfermartin- Posts : 696
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Age : 67
Location : Sidcup, Kent
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I've "dented the edge of the cup" twice, both times just a millimeter or two from being a slam dunk. However, the first time it happened, the ball deflected off the flag and pinged into a greenside bunker, and i took a 5. The second time, i got too steep on the tee shot and imparted far too much spin. The ball hit the flag at about 3 inches up, then hit the edge of the cup before ripping back over a ridge in the green and rolled around 15ft downhill into the water. I took a 6!
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
In our monthly society meets we've been putting a pound in each for about a year now, half of the pot will go to charity and the other half to the first participant to bag an ace. Based on those odds, and given there are 28 of us on average, playing 4 par 3s each month, it looks like we'll be waiting some 52 meetings before the pot is claimed. On the plus side that should mean nearly £1500 in the total pot when it is claimed, some time in 2016!
SmithersJones- Posts : 2094
Join date : 2011-01-27
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I've been playing for about 10-years and never had one, but been very close 3 times. Hit the pin twice leaving a tap in and been half inch short once. All 3 shots were pretty good, but just didn't drop. My brother-in-law has had 5 aces and has been playing about the same period as me. An ace is a luck thing I would say, just like holing out from the fairway, which I've actually done a couple of times, and even luckier is thinning a ball out of a bunker only hit the pin and drop straight in the hole. Now that shot was very lucky and would normally have been a lost ball.
I don't plan to get an ace, I just try and get close and let lady luck do the rest.
I don't plan to get an ace, I just try and get close and let lady luck do the rest.
Doc- Posts : 1041
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Location : Cheshire
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I'm not a mathematician, but are they the odds for your competition? For the rest of us you are you skewing the odds by only dealing in statistics for a par 3 course where it is MORE likely to get a hole in one, rather than a "normal" course where there are fewer. So you need to raise the odds by a factor of the proportion of par 3's on a "normal" course.theeldestboy wrote:To date, we have seen 3 holes in one, meaning a (current) probability for an amateur golfer of of 1/5907. On that basis, an average amateur will have to play approximately 1475 rounds of golf to hit a hole in 1 - that's 36 rounds of golf per year for 40 years.
I'm never wrong- Posts : 2928
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
TEB
is it possible that the odds are even longer than you have stated? I think it's possible that people may to a certain extent get 'zoned in' to playing par 3's which may increase their odds of getting one rather than only playing 4 or so in each 18 hole round.
I've never had one, not through the lack of trying I can assure you. Been playing this game for close on 40 years and had numerous near misses.
One day
is it possible that the odds are even longer than you have stated? I think it's possible that people may to a certain extent get 'zoned in' to playing par 3's which may increase their odds of getting one rather than only playing 4 or so in each 18 hole round.
I've never had one, not through the lack of trying I can assure you. Been playing this game for close on 40 years and had numerous near misses.
One day
drive4show- Posts : 1926
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 63
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I actually thought there was a good chance of one going in early in the 2nd round at Queens.... but it came up a little short. D4S then thought that there was a good chance on the 17th in the same round but that was a little long.
Still... If you keep hitting it at flags something is gonna drop.
And I've had one.
Still... If you keep hitting it at flags something is gonna drop.
And I've had one.
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 48
Location : Epping
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Been playing since 78. Never had one.
Have only seen one. Playing with a 22 handicapper. His score over 3 holes went, 8,1,10.
Have only seen one. Playing with a 22 handicapper. His score over 3 holes went, 8,1,10.
4putt- Posts : 252
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
That's not how the odds work at all. It isn't true to say that a golfer has to play 1475 rounds to get one. There is no guarantee. That is like saying that if one in ten of the general populous is gay then you simply have to walk along a line of ten people and one must be gay. Clearly not true. So if I was for example to pick ten random names from 606v2 such as LJ, Diggers, MPB, Rossa, Davie, Ladyputt, Mav, Mercurio, Ban Bam and Mac, does that mean Mac is gay because he's the tenth? An amusing example, but statistically incorrect.
It is more correct to say that every par three you face you have a 1 in 5907 (based on your odds) of making a hole in one. (Or to use another example, if you meet Mac there is a one in ten chance of him being gay, it doesn't mean that if you meet him 10 times then on the tenth time he will be gay )
There is a one in fourteen million chance of winning the lottery. It doesn't mean that if you play for fourteen million weeks you will win, all it does mean is that each time you play with a single ticket your chances remain 1 in 14m.
Similarly if you buy two tickets, your chances of winning have only improved by a factor of one in 14 million, that is to say you have 2 chances in 14million of winning, but the odds for each ticket are still 1 in 14m.
Standing on a par 3 is a similar thing, the hole does not have a memory of what you have done on other par threes, nor does it know what you will do in future holes or how many rounds you have played or even how close you have come before. The odds of a hole in one on par 3, remain the same, regardless of how many times you play it, only the number of CHANCES you have at a hole in one increase the more times you play, but it doesn't make a hole in one more likely because it is irrelevant what happened on each previous and any future shot, it doesn't make the likelihood of a hole in one on the shot you are facing any greater. Each time you tee it up the odds of a hole in one remain the same, (whatever they are calculated to be).
It is more correct to say that every par three you face you have a 1 in 5907 (based on your odds) of making a hole in one. (Or to use another example, if you meet Mac there is a one in ten chance of him being gay, it doesn't mean that if you meet him 10 times then on the tenth time he will be gay )
There is a one in fourteen million chance of winning the lottery. It doesn't mean that if you play for fourteen million weeks you will win, all it does mean is that each time you play with a single ticket your chances remain 1 in 14m.
Similarly if you buy two tickets, your chances of winning have only improved by a factor of one in 14 million, that is to say you have 2 chances in 14million of winning, but the odds for each ticket are still 1 in 14m.
Standing on a par 3 is a similar thing, the hole does not have a memory of what you have done on other par threes, nor does it know what you will do in future holes or how many rounds you have played or even how close you have come before. The odds of a hole in one on par 3, remain the same, regardless of how many times you play it, only the number of CHANCES you have at a hole in one increase the more times you play, but it doesn't make a hole in one more likely because it is irrelevant what happened on each previous and any future shot, it doesn't make the likelihood of a hole in one on the shot you are facing any greater. Each time you tee it up the odds of a hole in one remain the same, (whatever they are calculated to be).
super_realist- Posts : 28823
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
SR fantastic examples but feeling good I wasn't the 10th name on your list! Mac -
But that does explain better how the odds work
But that does explain better how the odds work
Maverick- Posts : 2680
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I have a theory that out of all the hole in one's ever made, the shots can be split into 3 catagories.
1) Great shots made right at the hole, predominantly by better players.
2) slight miss-hits by players who have either slightly thinnned/shanked a shot that gets a bounce onto the right line.
3) bad shots that hit the upslope of a green and pop up and roll on to the hole, or hit the back of a bunker and kick in the direction of the hole, or even hit a raised bank (cushion) and dive into the hole.
The odds are still long that you'll ever get an ace, but luck is what you make of it so suspect a better player will have a slightly better chance, but anyone is capable of hitting a really good golf shot at anytime in the round including someone who is playing for the first time. All of us who have never had one, have all been close to pulling it off.
Out of all the players on here who have had an ace, would really like to know if it was a good shot, or one you slightly miss cued that took a nice deviation etc. I was present a couple of years ago in our clubhouse, when a group walked in declaring that one of them had just aced the 17th, after hitting a rake in the bunker, which kicked up and onto the green, hitting the flag and dropping.
1) Great shots made right at the hole, predominantly by better players.
2) slight miss-hits by players who have either slightly thinnned/shanked a shot that gets a bounce onto the right line.
3) bad shots that hit the upslope of a green and pop up and roll on to the hole, or hit the back of a bunker and kick in the direction of the hole, or even hit a raised bank (cushion) and dive into the hole.
The odds are still long that you'll ever get an ace, but luck is what you make of it so suspect a better player will have a slightly better chance, but anyone is capable of hitting a really good golf shot at anytime in the round including someone who is playing for the first time. All of us who have never had one, have all been close to pulling it off.
Out of all the players on here who have had an ace, would really like to know if it was a good shot, or one you slightly miss cued that took a nice deviation etc. I was present a couple of years ago in our clubhouse, when a group walked in declaring that one of them had just aced the 17th, after hitting a rake in the bunker, which kicked up and onto the green, hitting the flag and dropping.
Doc- Posts : 1041
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Doc, I think I'd be too shamed to admit it if I did that. Likewise a thin, lucky bounce or richochet. I'd like any hole in one to be the fruition of a good strike that I previously had visualised doing exactly as I intended.
I've hit a few pins, been close with a "second" tee shot when playing in a bounce game and overhung the hole once, not bothered if I get one or not though as you rightly say that it isn't always the result of a good shot.
I've hit a few pins, been close with a "second" tee shot when playing in a bounce game and overhung the hole once, not bothered if I get one or not though as you rightly say that it isn't always the result of a good shot.
super_realist- Posts : 28823
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Doc to answer your question, i've had 2. The first was a semi shank to a par 3 that was 140yards, hit tree 30yards right of green ricocheted bank onto the green and into the hole! Happened to be in final round of a comp on 18th hole when I was a junior and thanks to that I won!
My other was a well struck shot but all over the flag ball hit the pin dropped like a stone straight into the hole the luck in that was it could've hit the flag and gone anywhere, this was in a league match so i've been fortunate to have both in competetive play but I've seen some horrors of hole in ones, first one I ever saw was a thinned 3 iron by a playing partner his ball was a real "worm burner" barely more than a foot off the floor we thought it'd gone through the green but was in the hole!
I've also seen as stated in previous post on this thread seen a hole one on a par 4 (280yards so a short one but still a feat) by a guy in league match on opposing team fortunately his game fell apart after that shot!
My other was a well struck shot but all over the flag ball hit the pin dropped like a stone straight into the hole the luck in that was it could've hit the flag and gone anywhere, this was in a league match so i've been fortunate to have both in competetive play but I've seen some horrors of hole in ones, first one I ever saw was a thinned 3 iron by a playing partner his ball was a real "worm burner" barely more than a foot off the floor we thought it'd gone through the green but was in the hole!
I've also seen as stated in previous post on this thread seen a hole one on a par 4 (280yards so a short one but still a feat) by a guy in league match on opposing team fortunately his game fell apart after that shot!
Maverick- Posts : 2680
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I've seen a couple in the flesh. Andrew Coltart in the Dunhill on the 8th at the Old Course and a guy on a par four with a driver. He'd also aced the following hole just a few weeks earlier ( with a worm raper, Sorry Mac and Guardian readers)
super_realist- Posts : 28823
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Mine was on a shortish par 3 in Johannesburg.
It was about 130 yards with a severe right to left slope and a tiny green with water short left. I pitched it into the bank right and short of the flag playing for a run down to the hole. As it happens it worked perfectly and it popped in for a 1.
It was about 130 yards with a severe right to left slope and a tiny green with water short left. I pitched it into the bank right and short of the flag playing for a run down to the hole. As it happens it worked perfectly and it popped in for a 1.
Last edited by LondonJonnyO on Tue 14 Jun 2011, 9:55 am; edited 1 time in total
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
i've never had one. i have been told that my grandfather had one on his last ever round - keep the faith!
i've hit pins on par 3s quite a few times. had one shot last year in a greensomes match which absolutely destroyed the back edge of the cup with a crater of a pitchmark. not a lot we could do to repair it. the ball ended up 30ft away after ricocheting off the pin / cup - my partner left me with a 6 foot putt for the half...
i've hit pins on par 3s quite a few times. had one shot last year in a greensomes match which absolutely destroyed the back edge of the cup with a crater of a pitchmark. not a lot we could do to repair it. the ball ended up 30ft away after ricocheting off the pin / cup - my partner left me with a 6 foot putt for the half...
barragan- Posts : 2297
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
We should form a new club; 'The unlucky group', because I've hit many, many great shots that deserved to drop and either landed too soft and gripped or took an unlucky firm bounce, which put too much pace on. I should have had 90 aces, so it's not fair Nice to hear some of the stories though, LJ you must have been made up with that one, well done. Mav you're obviously thick skinned and bet you laughed your chicken off with the tree hit
I bet theres some great stories out there. In fairness i would be telling all who would listen about my deserved ace, without explaining how it came about. Its in the book so it doesn't matter
I bet theres some great stories out there. In fairness i would be telling all who would listen about my deserved ace, without explaining how it came about. Its in the book so it doesn't matter
Doc- Posts : 1041
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I've had five. All of them were good shots, not bad ones, but the fact that they ended up in the hole shows that it's about luck. I've hit plenty of other good shots that didn't go in, just rolled away, or hit the pin and stayed out.
The most important factor in determining holes in one is the length of the hole. Any hole over 170 yards isn't likely to see many holes in one, because most amateurs won't get on the green. Anything over 200 yards is highly unlikely. Holes that are 120-150 yards are short enough that most players can expect to get it near, or on the green, increasing the odds slightly.
Holes in one at my two clubs occur in inverse proportion to the length of the hole. The longer the hole, the less likely to be a hole in one. I'm sure the same is true at every club, barring those with 250 yard downhill par 3s.
A couple of years ago, I played in a fourball where we took 7 shots to play a 154 yard par three between us. One guy holed in one, one had a tap in two, and myself and another holed from inside 10 feet. An easy pin position!
The most important factor in determining holes in one is the length of the hole. Any hole over 170 yards isn't likely to see many holes in one, because most amateurs won't get on the green. Anything over 200 yards is highly unlikely. Holes that are 120-150 yards are short enough that most players can expect to get it near, or on the green, increasing the odds slightly.
Holes in one at my two clubs occur in inverse proportion to the length of the hole. The longer the hole, the less likely to be a hole in one. I'm sure the same is true at every club, barring those with 250 yard downhill par 3s.
A couple of years ago, I played in a fourball where we took 7 shots to play a 154 yard par three between us. One guy holed in one, one had a tap in two, and myself and another holed from inside 10 feet. An easy pin position!
Last edited by George1507 on Tue 14 Jun 2011, 11:41 am; edited 1 time in total
George1507- Posts : 1336
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Doc i'm extremely thick skinned, the tree incident one is actually my favourite of the 2 i've had because it won me my first 36 hole event as a 15 year old lad. It also meant I won by a single shot i'd been trailing by a shot standing on that tee to the guy i was playing with and after i'd struck the tee shot he smirked as though he knew victory was in the bag, oh how I chuckled when that rolled back across the green into the hole
Maverick- Posts : 2680
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I hope you had the good grace to apologise.
super_realist- Posts : 28823
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
George I can see the merit in your theory, but as has been mentioned on here earlier we've all heard or seen aces made on par 4's which are way longer than the 170 mark. I've even been close a couple of times and on one particular course you hit the right area of the fairway with your drive and you will be guaranteed to be close, as the ball runs downhill and gathers onto an ampitheatre green. The ball will always finish in the same area of the green, and depending on pin position .... I know of one par 3 of 220 where even high handicappers have a go with the driver as the fairway will always run a straightish drive down onto the green. I think there are too many factors involved on any par 3 to be able to say conclusiveley that an ace is likely/unlikely.
I have played one course with a 160 par 3 that has never had an ace scored on it, and the club are proud of the fact. Theres been a few close calls, but all were lucky in some way. It's a wide green with no depth and well protected at the front. You need to carry the sand at 155 yards to hit anywhere on the green, which will give you no chance of stopping on the green unless you are able to come in at height and grip/bite. Too much of a high carry for me so my 5-iron isn't stopping. The bunker is the shot and hope for an up-and-down to make par.
Then theres the greens commitee at Augusta who always set the pin position on one particular par 3 (Can't remember the hole, but by the water) to give the viewers/gallery a chance of seeing an ace, and we usually see a couple through the week. On this hole the players doesn't aim for the flag, but go long and to the right, which will see the ball gradually gather and run down the slope towards the water and the pin.
I have played one course with a 160 par 3 that has never had an ace scored on it, and the club are proud of the fact. Theres been a few close calls, but all were lucky in some way. It's a wide green with no depth and well protected at the front. You need to carry the sand at 155 yards to hit anywhere on the green, which will give you no chance of stopping on the green unless you are able to come in at height and grip/bite. Too much of a high carry for me so my 5-iron isn't stopping. The bunker is the shot and hope for an up-and-down to make par.
Then theres the greens commitee at Augusta who always set the pin position on one particular par 3 (Can't remember the hole, but by the water) to give the viewers/gallery a chance of seeing an ace, and we usually see a couple through the week. On this hole the players doesn't aim for the flag, but go long and to the right, which will see the ball gradually gather and run down the slope towards the water and the pin.
Doc- Posts : 1041
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
SR Did I aplogise no. Why? because he was gloating walking onto that tee and after his tee shot that he had it in the bag! So to see the smirk wiped off his face was perfect
Maverick- Posts : 2680
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
In that case - Bravo, nothing better than sticking up the middle finger in a metaphorical way.
I recall once playing an absolute bellend in a club match and my eagle putt hung right over the edge. My oponent gave a derisory "hard luck" only for it to drop on the "K" of his last word. Cheers mate 3&2.
I recall once playing an absolute bellend in a club match and my eagle putt hung right over the edge. My oponent gave a derisory "hard luck" only for it to drop on the "K" of his last word. Cheers mate 3&2.
super_realist- Posts : 28823
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Doc any shot where you use your imagination like that is very satisfying... but it is a bit better when it's for a hole in one.
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
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Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
i've found my ball overhanging the hole on balcomie's 3rd which is the closest i've come. we could see the guys on the 4th tee jumping up and down and i got all excited but not to be. on the same hole many years ago, my dad knocked in a 3 wood, into the wind, on christmas day! the clubhouse was closed (mind you we were also probably the only ones out there) but he did have a can of ready-mixed G&T in his bag which we shared. nice moment.
graeme- Posts : 256
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Location : Cupar, Fife
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I'm never wrong wrote:I'm not a mathematician, but are they the odds for your competition? For the rest of us you are you skewing the odds by only dealing in statistics for a par 3 course where it is MORE likely to get a hole in one, rather than a "normal" course where there are fewer. So you need to raise the odds by a factor of the proportion of par 3's on a "normal" course.theeldestboy wrote:To date, we have seen 3 holes in one, meaning a (current) probability for an amateur golfer of of 1/5907. On that basis, an average amateur will have to play approximately 1475 rounds of golf to hit a hole in 1 - that's 36 rounds of golf per year for 40 years.
Yes, I had allowed for the fact that there are 9 par 3's on a par 3 course and only 4 on an 18 holes one!
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
theeldestboy wrote:I'm never wrong wrote:I'm not a mathematician, but are they the odds for your competition? For the rest of us you are you skewing the odds by only dealing in statistics for a par 3 course where it is MORE likely to get a hole in one, rather than a "normal" course where there are fewer. So you need to raise the odds by a factor of the proportion of par 3's on a "normal" course.theeldestboy wrote:To date, we have seen 3 holes in one, meaning a (current) probability for an amateur golfer of of 1/5907. On that basis, an average amateur will have to play approximately 1475 rounds of golf to hit a hole in 1 - that's 36 rounds of golf per year for 40 years.
Yes, I had allowed for the fact that there are 9 par 3's on a par 3 course and only 4 on an 18 holes one!
So you didn't factor in the places which are setup more like The Shire?
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 48
Location : Epping
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
super_realist wrote:That's not how the odds work at all. It isn't true to say that a golfer has to play 1475 rounds to get one. There is no guarantee. That is like saying that if one in ten of the general populous is gay then you simply have to walk along a line of ten people and one must be gay. Clearly not true. So if I was for example to pick ten random names from 606v2 such as LJ, Diggers, MPB, Rossa, Davie, Ladyputt, Mav, Mercurio, Ban Bam and Mac, does that mean Mac is gay because he's the tenth? An amusing example, but statistically incorrect.
It is more correct to say that every par three you face you have a 1 in 5907 (based on your odds) of making a hole in one. (Or to use another example, if you meet Mac there is a one in ten chance of him being gay, it doesn't mean that if you meet him 10 times then on the tenth time he will be gay )
There is a one in fourteen million chance of winning the lottery. It doesn't mean that if you play for fourteen million weeks you will win, all it does mean is that each time you play with a single ticket your chances remain 1 in 14m.
Similarly if you buy two tickets, your chances of winning have only improved by a factor of one in 14 million, that is to say you have 2 chances in 14million of winning, but the odds for each ticket are still 1 in 14m.
Standing on a par 3 is a similar thing, the hole does not have a memory of what you have done on other par threes, nor does it know what you will do in future holes or how many rounds you have played or even how close you have come before. The odds of a hole in one on par 3, remain the same, regardless of how many times you play it, only the number of CHANCES you have at a hole in one increase the more times you play, but it doesn't make a hole in one more likely because it is irrelevant what happened on each previous and any future shot, it doesn't make the likelihood of a hole in one on the shot you are facing any greater. Each time you tee it up the odds of a hole in one remain the same, (whatever they are calculated to be).
Blimey S-R, take it easy. Your tone here make it sound like my original post was something really controversial or down-right incorrect. I was meant to be a light-hearted topic based on some interesting data i happen to have available to me.
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
It's not meant to be taken as a lecture Eldest hence the smilies, just that people misinterpret probability all the time when in fact it's really very simple and my example of Mac being gay was clearly not a rebuke or robust retort to your article and was supposed to be taken lightly.
You might get a hole in one, you might not (and probably won't). Easy.
You might get a hole in one, you might not (and probably won't). Easy.
super_realist- Posts : 28823
Join date : 2011-01-29
Location : Stavanger, Norway
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
LondonJonnyO wrote:theeldestboy wrote:I'm never wrong wrote:I'm not a mathematician, but are they the odds for your competition? For the rest of us you are you skewing the odds by only dealing in statistics for a par 3 course where it is MORE likely to get a hole in one, rather than a "normal" course where there are fewer. So you need to raise the odds by a factor of the proportion of par 3's on a "normal" course.theeldestboy wrote:To date, we have seen 3 holes in one, meaning a (current) probability for an amateur golfer of of 1/5907. On that basis, an average amateur will have to play approximately 1475 rounds of golf to hit a hole in 1 - that's 36 rounds of golf per year for 40 years.
Yes, I had allowed for the fact that there are 9 par 3's on a par 3 course and only 4 on an 18 holes one!
So you didn't factor in the places which are setup more like The Shire?
I give up!
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
super_realist wrote:It's not meant to be taken as a lecture Eldest hence the smilies, just that people misinterpret probability all the time when in fact it's really very simple and my example of Mac being gay was clearly not a rebuke or robust retort to your article and was supposed to be taken lightly.
You might get a hole in one, you might not (and probably won't). Easy.
Besides. I think Mac bats for both teams.
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 48
Location : Epping
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
In that case you could say his chances of a "hole in one" were considerably greater.
super_realist- Posts : 28823
Join date : 2011-01-29
Location : Stavanger, Norway
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
theeldestboy wrote:super_realist wrote:That's not how the odds work at all. It isn't true to say that a golfer has to play 1475 rounds to get one. There is no guarantee. That is like saying that if one in ten of the general populous is gay then you simply have to walk along a line of ten people and one must be gay. Clearly not true. So if I was for example to pick ten random names from 606v2 such as LJ, Diggers, MPB, Rossa, Davie, Ladyputt, Mav, Mercurio, Ban Bam and Mac, does that mean Mac is gay because he's the tenth? An amusing example, but statistically incorrect.
It is more correct to say that every par three you face you have a 1 in 5907 (based on your odds) of making a hole in one. (Or to use another example, if you meet Mac there is a one in ten chance of him being gay, it doesn't mean that if you meet him 10 times then on the tenth time he will be gay )
There is a one in fourteen million chance of winning the lottery. It doesn't mean that if you play for fourteen million weeks you will win, all it does mean is that each time you play with a single ticket your chances remain 1 in 14m.
Similarly if you buy two tickets, your chances of winning have only improved by a factor of one in 14 million, that is to say you have 2 chances in 14million of winning, but the odds for each ticket are still 1 in 14m.
Standing on a par 3 is a similar thing, the hole does not have a memory of what you have done on other par threes, nor does it know what you will do in future holes or how many rounds you have played or even how close you have come before. The odds of a hole in one on par 3, remain the same, regardless of how many times you play it, only the number of CHANCES you have at a hole in one increase the more times you play, but it doesn't make a hole in one more likely because it is irrelevant what happened on each previous and any future shot, it doesn't make the likelihood of a hole in one on the shot you are facing any greater. Each time you tee it up the odds of a hole in one remain the same, (whatever they are calculated to be).
Blimey S-R, take it easy. Your tone here make it sound like my original post was something really controversial or down-right incorrect. I was meant to be a light-hearted topic based on some interesting data i happen to have available to me.
I'm just counting my blessings that I'm not listed in the 10 possible gays on 606
drive4show- Posts : 1926
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 63
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
drive4show wrote:theeldestboy wrote:super_realist wrote:That's not how the odds work at all. It isn't true to say that a golfer has to play 1475 rounds to get one. There is no guarantee. That is like saying that if one in ten of the general populous is gay then you simply have to walk along a line of ten people and one must be gay. Clearly not true. So if I was for example to pick ten random names from 606v2 such as LJ, Diggers, MPB, Rossa, Davie, Ladyputt, Mav, Mercurio, Ban Bam and Mac, does that mean Mac is gay because he's the tenth? An amusing example, but statistically incorrect.
It is more correct to say that every par three you face you have a 1 in 5907 (based on your odds) of making a hole in one. (Or to use another example, if you meet Mac there is a one in ten chance of him being gay, it doesn't mean that if you meet him 10 times then on the tenth time he will be gay )
There is a one in fourteen million chance of winning the lottery. It doesn't mean that if you play for fourteen million weeks you will win, all it does mean is that each time you play with a single ticket your chances remain 1 in 14m.
Similarly if you buy two tickets, your chances of winning have only improved by a factor of one in 14 million, that is to say you have 2 chances in 14million of winning, but the odds for each ticket are still 1 in 14m.
Standing on a par 3 is a similar thing, the hole does not have a memory of what you have done on other par threes, nor does it know what you will do in future holes or how many rounds you have played or even how close you have come before. The odds of a hole in one on par 3, remain the same, regardless of how many times you play it, only the number of CHANCES you have at a hole in one increase the more times you play, but it doesn't make a hole in one more likely because it is irrelevant what happened on each previous and any future shot, it doesn't make the likelihood of a hole in one on the shot you are facing any greater. Each time you tee it up the odds of a hole in one remain the same, (whatever they are calculated to be).
Blimey S-R, take it easy. Your tone here make it sound like my original post was something really controversial or down-right incorrect. I was meant to be a light-hearted topic based on some interesting data i happen to have available to me.
I'm just counting my blessings that I'm not listed in the 10 possible gays on 606
As I recall I was threatened with an insertion of something at Broadstone.
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 48
Location : Epping
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
does being 9th mean i could be on the turn ?????
barragan- Posts : 2297
Join date : 2011-01-27
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Cool S_R, i know it was meant light-heartedly, as was my response.
Well actually, how about this to throw my original postout of the window. The first hole-in-one seen in our Society was (i kid ye not) in the first event, first group, 3rd player.
So at one time the statistical probability of a hole in one in our Society were as low as 3/1!
Well actually, how about this to throw my original postout of the window. The first hole-in-one seen in our Society was (i kid ye not) in the first event, first group, 3rd player.
So at one time the statistical probability of a hole in one in our Society were as low as 3/1!
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Ha ha, I'll take that statistical analysis as a very ironic joke Eldest.
Very droll.
Very droll.
super_realist- Posts : 28823
Join date : 2011-01-29
Location : Stavanger, Norway
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
theeldestboy wrote:Cool S_R, i know it was meant light-heartedly, as was my response.
Well actually, how about this to throw my original postout of the window. The first hole-in-one seen in our Society was (i kid ye not) in the first event, first group, 3rd player.
So at one time the statistical probability of a hole in one in our Society were as low as 3/1!
At that point you had not gathered a statistically significant sample of data and as such the results were unreliable. So can be discounted immediately due to having an accuracy somewhat lower than a whale attempting to use a longbow.
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 48
Location : Epping
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
LondonJonnyO wrote:theeldestboy wrote:Cool S_R, i know it was meant light-heartedly, as was my response.
Well actually, how about this to throw my original postout of the window. The first hole-in-one seen in our Society was (i kid ye not) in the first event, first group, 3rd player.
So at one time the statistical probability of a hole in one in our Society were as low as 3/1!
At that point you had not gathered a statistically significant sample of data and as such the results were unreliable. So can be discounted immediately due to having an accuracy somewhat lower than a whale attempting to use a longbow.
Can i ask how many whales you have seen attempting to use a longbow? To use your own arguement, i suspect you've not seen a sufficiently large sample to draw the conclusion that they are inaccurate
theeldestboy- Posts : 188
Join date : 2011-01-30
Location : Dubai
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Have you ever seen a whale with opposable thumbs allowing it to draw a longbow? Hence it must be quite difficult for them to be accurate.
Those cats with thumbs are another matter however.
Those cats with thumbs are another matter however.
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 48
Location : Epping
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
My mate playing our last hole 235yds uphill ace'd his tee shot & proudly walked off claiming that was for 113.
SetupDeterminesTheMotion- Posts : 780
Join date : 2011-02-01
Location : Airdrie
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
"I'm just counting my blessings that I'm not listed in the 10 possible gays on 606"
This is obviously a subject that needs airing D4S before you make your anouncement and bring our friends out of the closet, probably best to check with them first. Mav shouldn't have a problem with it or the well known Scottish DJ
This is obviously a subject that needs airing D4S before you make your anouncement and bring our friends out of the closet, probably best to check with them first. Mav shouldn't have a problem with it or the well known Scottish DJ
Doc- Posts : 1041
Join date : 2011-01-27
Location : Cheshire
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
Doc wrote:"I'm just counting my blessings that I'm not listed in the 10 possible gays on 606"
This is obviously a subject that needs airing D4S before you make your anouncement and bring our friends out of the closet, probably best to check with them first. Mav shouldn't have a problem with it or the well known Scottish DJ
I have no issues with my sexuality, as everyone on here knows, I love Bella Emberg
drive4show- Posts : 1926
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 63
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
I'll choose to igonore the gay slur on my character and focus on LJ's point about the shire, anyone seen frodo walking the fairways with gandalf lately
Maverick- Posts : 2680
Join date : 2011-01-27
Age : 43
Location : Kent
Re: Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...
The ringer is fairly short... so I'm gonna say "YES".
And Mave with all those kids it could be a case of over compensation....
And Mave with all those kids it could be a case of over compensation....
LondonJonnyO- Posts : 1885
Join date : 2011-01-28
Age : 48
Location : Epping
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