Hole-in-one - the real odds for an amateur...

First topic message reminder :

Hi all,

I run a golf Society here in Dubai, consisting today of 64 members of handicaps from 2 - 28. Each and every week, 52 weeks a year, we play at the Emirates Par 3 course, a beautiful 9 hole set-up consisting of holes between 90 and 200 yards, with an average of around 140. So in that respect, it's a genuine par 3 course rather than a pitch and putt. Via our website, we record every players hole-by-hole score, so in the past 2 years we have built a comprehensive set of pretty interesting golfing data.

In that time, a total of 125 players have played 1969 rounds of par 3 golf, or 17,721 individual holes. To date, we have seen 3 holes in one, meaning a (current) probability for an amateur golfer of of 1/5907. On that basis, an average amateur will have to play approximately 1475 rounds of golf to hit a hole in 1 - that's 36 rounds of golf per year for 40 years.

Of course, these are just numbers - the reality is that many "weaker" golfer will have multiple holes in one in their lifetime, while many scratch handicappers will never shoot one.

I personally have never hit one, and nor have i witnessed one. But i'll be out there again next weekend trying!

LondonJonnyO wrote:The ringer is fairly short... so I'm gonna say "YES".


And Mave with all those kids it could be a case of over compensation....

No a case of over compensation LJ more like a case one day I really should learn to wrap it up!

back to the golf one of our 'members' recently had a hole in one on par 3 which netted him 6(six) stableford points.Cue discussion on stroke indexes

dynamark wrote:back to the golf one of our 'members' recently had a hole in one on par 3 which netted him 6(six) stableford points.Cue discussion on stroke indexes

Similar thing here Dyna. The par 17th at Earth plays over water but really isn't that hard a hole. However, the stroke index is something like 7 or 8, so 28 handicappers get 2 strokes! One of our high handicappers hit a gross bridie, 2 for 5, which is frankly absured.

theeldestboy wrote: One of our high handicappers hit a gross bridie, 2 for 5, which is frankly absured.

Same thing happened to me last week. Me and my shanking friend were right of the green discussing a ruling and the high handicapper was about 20 yards left. He chipped in and we didn't see it. In what other sport would get a bonus for doing something in nothing?

Was watching the golf channel this morning and they were doing a piece on holes in one. From what I can remember the European Tour has had 755 hole in ones to date. Monty has had the most. 9.