The Trump Presidency

Well we'll wait and see about Arizona. Pundits seem to think it's a done deal; they don't seem to have considered it's only Election Day votes left to count.

Ohio called, but Texas and Florida not, which is very poor. Iowa should be called soon for Trump. Trump with healthy leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...he needs 'em if Arizona's going blue.

Georgia seems to be faltering for Trump, but he's still ahead for now. North Carolina's probably in recount territory. unless Trump has more votes to secure it.

This mainstream media bias is quite something. Trump 49-48 ahead in Montana, 50% voted...oh yeah, that's too close to call. Trump 50-48 ahead in Virginia, 76% voted....oh yeah, we're calling that for Biden.

Agree we can't actually call Arizona yet - my hypothetical was just that.  Oddly , pundits aren't calling Georgia yet : I would have thought NC isn't totally certain yet either ?

Lot of votes still to count.. Certainly seems we won't have a final result for a few days - as was widely flagged .

Might be a hairy couple of days...

Pundits now seem to have realised Arizona's firmly in play.

Georgia's firmly in play, too, the balance seems to have tilted back to Biden with the early ballots still to come...but the earlier statistics didn't seem to indicate a huge number of early votes for Biden in this state,, so I'd still make Trump favourite here.

NC, after 5.5 million votes, has a Trump lead of 76k votes with 5% left. Should be Trump's, but might be a recount? Or a late shift? Amazing how many election counters have buggered off home early, not like our election counters!

Minnesota is, as expected, going for Biden, but Trump can be hugely optimistic about Penn/Mich/Wisconsin.

Florida, at last, called for Trump.

Trump keeping his healthy lead going in Michigan and Wisconsin. Still 15% ahead in Pennsylvania with just 1/3rd of the vote left to count. And behind just 7% in Arizona now as he starts to cut into Biden's early vote advantage, plus he's still hanging on in Georgia.

Biden looks to have secured Minnesota and probably Nevada.

Trump claims victory and talked about legal action and alleges major fraud. I think that's what you call the nuclear option.

With seven states in play, Trump's ahead in five (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC) and coming back in one (Arizona), so I think he's on the way to victory anyway.

Hate wins

Duty281 wrote:Trump claims victory and talked about legal action and alleges major fraud. I think that's what you call the nuclear option.

With seven states in play, Trump's ahead in five (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC) and coming back in one (Arizona), so I think he's on the way to victory anyway.

Well I have to admit your faith in Trump's fans has been borne out to a large extent so far...but I would still question your assumption that he has this in the bag. There are a lot of postal votes to be counted in these undecided states ; and they are widely expected to favour Biden quite strongly - hence why Trump is so keen to discredit them and flag legal challenges.

One might say he is in front at present : but he needs to take most of those "in play" states to win , while Biden has several possible routes to 270. That single vote in Nebraska could yet be the key

alfie wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Trump claims victory and talked about legal action and alleges major fraud. I think that's what you call the nuclear option.

With seven states in play, Trump's ahead in five (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC) and coming back in one (Arizona), so I think he's on the way to victory anyway.

Well I have to admit your faith in Trump's fans has been borne out to a large extent so far...but I would still question your assumption that he has this in the bag.  There are a lot of postal votes to be counted in these undecided states ; and they are widely expected to favour Biden quite strongly - hence why Trump is so keen to discredit them and flag legal challenges.

One might say he is in front at present : but he needs to take most of those "in play" states to win , while Biden has several possible routes to 270.  That single vote in Nebraska could yet be the key

Yes, and I think this is particularly wide of the mark, especially in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump's built up a huge lead in Pennsylvania and there's not a lot of mail-in ballots to alter the balance of the equation. He's practically home in NC. Very close to winning Georgia, too.

Hopefully we'll find out soon...though I have my doubts!

Think we will be waiting a day or two.

Be interesting to see how the stock market reacts tomorrow...

If Trump holds Georgia it's probably over

The bookies now have Trump as around a 68% favourite to win, you reap what you sow as a Democrat to some extent and it highlights that persisting with the establishment choice doesn't win elections. Hopefully there's another twist and Biden pulls it out the bag.

Georgia, North Carolina, then any two of Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania gets Trump to 270.

But if he fails to take Georgia, he'll need all three, unless he completes a comeback win in Arizona.

Arizona already declared for Biden (again) I'm pretty sure

If he holds Nevada it's any 2 from Penn/Wis/Mich/Georgia. I think he's marginally favoured in Georgia with some mail in votes to turn around a small Trump lead. Trump leads the rest but Biden expected to command most of the remaining votes

I think Trump is ahead based on having the votes in hand but I think it's still way too close to call either way. but if Trump can retain Georgia, 2/3 becomes pretty dicey.

And with Milwaukee reporting, Biden nudges ahead in Wisconsin. Beginning to get dicey for Trump

Wisconsin's very tight, but it's difficult to see Michigan/Pennsylvania going Biden's way based on what's left and Trump's current lead. Difficult, but not impossible.

Based on Milwaukee, I wouldn't underestimate just how much the absentee vote count is going to favour Biden. Pennsylvania still waiting on a lot of Philadelphia votes, which will be pro Biden, Michigan waiting on Detroit.

And he may not even need either if he turns around Georgia

Trump's lead in Michigan cut from 250k to 80k. Blue wave of absentee votes might be carrying Biden home

It'll be up to the courts in the end, I think. We won't know for weeks.

I think once Florida stayed with Trump it always was ending in the courts. At this stage I think Biden is going to carry the electoral college though

Duty281 wrote:Wisconsin's very tight, but it's difficult to see Michigan/Pennsylvania going Biden's way based on what's left and Trump's current lead. Difficult, but not impossible.

Wisconsin looking like it will sway for Biden with 32k absentee votes from democratic Green Bay still to come.

Nevada and Wisconsin would give Biden 16 of the 32 electoral college votes he needs but Trump is up in Georgia, Michigan, NC and Pennsylvania.

This is going to be extremely tight with recounts almost certainly called for.

Can someone explain to me, a layman, how if Biden wins the electoral college and popular vote, Trump could win in the courts?

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Can someone explain to me, a layman, how if Biden wins the electoral college and popular vote, Trump could win in the courts?

Popular's vote irrelevant.

Trump will, if he loses the Electoral College, try to allege any sort of impropriety he can to cast doubt over the validity of certain ballots cast for Biden (mainly the postal ones) in narrowly-won Democrat states. He'll then hope for those ballots to be removed from the election result because of fraud. He'll also push for recounts, endless recounts.

Good Golly I'm Olly wrote:Can someone explain to me, a layman, how if Biden wins the electoral college and popular vote, Trump could win in the courts?

He's going to win some states by a small enough margin that recounts will come into it and then litigation on trying to get some counts thrown out etc

To be honest I'm not entirely sure how much support Trump is going to get from his party if he loses the electoral college and tries to tie this up in court

Besides that someone has to pay for it and neither Trump or his campaign are flush with cash

Trump might actually win Nevada, he's pulled to within 9k votes.

Apparently Clark County still to report in Nevada, which gave Hilary an 80k lead over Trump in 2016 though

They've reported 84% of their votes, apparently, but yes it does look like Biden will be fine there, barring a late Red surge.

The aftermath of the 2000 election was hell, and that was just one state. This could be five - Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn., North Carolina, Georgia - all settled by tiny margins. I thought it would be close, but this is taking the Arthur Bliss.

I think Wisconsin and Michigan might be fairly safe for Biden in the end. If he can take Georgia and Pennsylvania that's probably enough of a lead that Trump can't legitimately try and bury this in the courts

Duty281 wrote:Trump might actually win Nevada, he's pulled to within 9k votes.

Clinton 2016 counties have 180k votes remaining and Trump 2016 counties approx 20k votes remaining though by my understanding making Biden more likely with Clark and Washoe carrying it?

I'll be first to admit that you have a better understanding of this election than me but looking at the county by county data it would seem Biden is favourite to me.

Duty281 wrote:They've reported 84% of their votes, apparently, but yes it does look like Biden will be fine there, barring a late Red surge.

The aftermath of the 2000 election was hell, and that was just one state. This could be five - Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn., North Carolina, Georgia - all settled by tiny margins. I thought it would be close, but this is taking the Arthur Bliss.

Trump has won. He said so. Have you ever known him to lie?

Nevada stopping counts until tomorrow morning but with only mail in ballots left you can presume Biden is pretty safe

king_carlos wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Trump might actually win Nevada, he's pulled to within 9k votes.

Clinton 2016 counties have 180k votes remaining and Trump 2016 counties approx 20k votes remaining though by my understanding making Biden more likely with Clark and Washoe carrying it?

I'll be first to admit that you have a better understanding of this election than me but looking at the county by county data it would seem Biden is favourite to me.

Yeah, Biden should be alright in Nevada. I thought the 15% of votes left was Election Day ballots, but it appears they're mostly postal.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Duty281 wrote:They've reported 84% of their votes, apparently, but yes it does look like Biden will be fine there, barring a late Red surge.

The aftermath of the 2000 election was hell, and that was just one state. This could be five - Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn., North Carolina, Georgia - all settled by tiny margins. I thought it would be close, but this is taking the Arthur Bliss.

Trump has won. He said so. Have you ever known him to lie?

Good point. Crack open the champers. #fourmoreyears

1.4m absentee ballots yet to count in Pennsylvania apparently. Tend to lean Biden by about 70% or so elsewhere

That might not be enough to flip it then, with Trump currently at a 619k lead. But it'll take days to find out.

Gonna be close either way I think. Expect Trump to be vocal on the count

Biden now odds on with most bookies to win, ALL, the swing states. Trump drifting.

Seems these postal ballots will be what wins it

I think nobody anticipated the level of bias they show to Biden (though when you have one candidate playing down covid and calling it fraudulent...)

This is one of the best horse races I've ever watched

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:This is one of the best horse races I've ever watched

The photo finish gonna take months to review

Have to confess, tighter than many hoped/expected. The polarisation of U.S. politics is so great now, that most just vote for 'their' party, regardless and hope other side go to Hell. We should all know better than to doubt Duty.

That said, given the situation now (and w/ Trump's contemptible words this morning), this is just the beginning of a period of acrimony in the U.S, whomever ultimately wins. Hope the rest of the World just ignore them.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:This is one of the best horse races I've ever watched

Are you back here, Flipper? I hope all is well.

Have a feeling Trump will just miss out when the mail-ins are tallied in WI and MI. It's so close in PA but Biden needs just over 72% of the remaining 1.4m to be counted.

Will be entertaining if Trump spits the dummy. He'll never admit to losing.

Neck and neck now in Michigan, Biden moving ahead in Wisconsin.

Honestly 72% might be low of what Biden actually gets. Suspect that's a lot of Philadelphia which is heavy democrat territory

Re Trump we've already seen what his playbook is, call mail in ballots fraudulent, and then if he ends up losing due to a late surge as seems to be happening this morning, he'll just claim he won until illegitimate votes changed the race.

Biden could do with nabbing all 4 of the states in play, pretty hard for Trump to mount a big challenge if he loses by 40 points or so

GSC wrote:Neck and neck now in Michigan

Biden 49.1%
Trump 49.3%

83% of votes cast.

Just John wrote:Have you been promised a job in Biden’s administration, GSC?

Yeah

Out of interest why did you delete the last one?

And that one

Technical issues