2024 US Presidential Election

Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

if I was a betting Man I'd bet on Kamala Harris winning in 2024.....18 months is a long time and Biden gets more frail everyday....If he doesn't make it the line will be let's give Kamala a real chance at changing America.....Certainly 2/9 is crazy...

DeSantis is 2/1 because Trump is 77 in two weeks.....No great excitement around DeSantis and I think Trump thinks he can take him pretty easy. Though Iowa first up is good for DeSantis and Momentum is a good thing....

Kennedy JR and Marianne Wilson will struggle because the networks are all in on Biden....

But you never rule the Kennedy's out...Even now...

Duty281 wrote:...

Only 531 days until the election...

And therein lies one of the biggest issues with American politics - far too much time is spent campaigning, and far too little actually doing.

RFK jr is not a credible challenger on the Democrat side (he's an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist). If Biden does decide to step down (unlikely) there will be an interesting scramble for the nomination (Harris as VP doesn't appear to have any momentum in this regard) - the interesting questions that would raise is whether the US is ready to elect a female or openly gay man as President.

It looks like a repeat of the 2020 election.

I can't see anyone beating Trump for the nomination, as good as DeSantis is, and how well he is governing Florida; he is seen as a successor, not a challenger to Trump. He is right to run but he won't win, let's hope T and DeS don't torpedo their presidential campaign in the primaries.
As for the Dems, it will be Biden. He ran as a brainless corpse in 2020, don't see how that changes in 2024. The dems don't do challengers, they take their orders from the top, not the voter.

As for the election itself, the state of the US will be far worse in 2024 than it is today. You would therefore think that voters will want change, but I don't think that will be case. I can see the late mail-in vote drops carrying Biden to victory again.

And there are all the other variables that will no doubt throw spanners into the works.
What will BLM/Anifa and the other Democrat Brown Shirts have up their sleeves? How many cities will they burn this time?
How will the RINOs in the GOP try to sabotage Trump?

It won't be boring.

dummy_half wrote:

Duty281 wrote:...

Only 531 days until the election...

And therein lies one of the biggest issues with American politics - far too much time is spent campaigning, and far too little actually doing.

RFK jr is not a credible challenger on the Democrat side (he's an anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist). If Biden does decide to step down (unlikely) there will be an interesting scramble for the nomination (Harris as VP doesn't appear to have any momentum in this regard) -  the interesting questions that would raise is whether the US is ready to elect a female or openly gay man as President.

Campaign length - Yes, the first US election I remember was in 2004, and I saw highlights of Bush doing rallies and the like on the news for months and thinking 'doesn't he have an actual job to be getting on with?' Campaign lengths are far, far too long and I wonder how much mental energy an incumbent President expends on campaigning rather than actually being President. We at least seem to get that right in this country.

On Kennedy Jr, I think there's a great number of Americans who will buy into his anti-vaccine rhetoric. He's a political smorgasbord: his anti-vaccine viewpoints and conspiracy theorist opinions will appeal to many Republican voters; while his consistent opposition to US foreign interventions, support for a wealth tax and opposition to fossil fuels will appeal to Democrat voters and disaffected independents. I'm not sure he can marry it all up into a credible campaign, but I think he has a viable chance of getting the nomination if Biden drops out late in the day. After the success of Trump's campaign I'm wary of saying anyone isn't a credible challenger. And, I think Truss pointed this out in a separate thread, the Kennedy name is still worth a fair bit.

Biden should coast the nomination process if he stands, but it's wide open if he doesn't. I don't think there's any issue with America voting for a female President if the chance comes up. Someone who's openly gay? That might be trickier.

I do think Trump will win the Republican nomination, unless legal troubles or health issues prohibit him from running a campaign (he will be 78 by the time of the election). Whoever gets the Republican nomination should be confident of defeating Biden, presuming he runs, with Biden's low approval ratings and weak economic performance.

the-goon2 wrote:It looks like a repeat of the 2020 election.

I can't see anyone beating Trump for the nomination, as good as DeSantis is, and how well he is governing Florida; he is seen as a successor, not a challenger to Trump. He is right to run but he won't win, let's hope T and DeS don't torpedo their presidential campaign in the primaries.
As for the Dems, it will be Biden. He ran as a brainless corpse in 2020, don't see how that changes in 2024. The dems don't do challengers, they take their orders from the top, not the voter.

As for the election itself, the state of the US will be far worse in 2024 than it is today. You would therefore think that voters will want change, but I don't think that will be case. I can see the late mail-in vote drops carrying Biden to victory again.

And there are all the other variables that will no doubt throw spanners into the works.
What will BLM/Anifa and the other Democrat Brown Shirts have up their sleeves? How many cities will they burn this time?
How will the RINOs in the GOP try to sabotage Trump?

It won't be boring.

The Economy is 90% of the Election......Trump was winning in the polls comfortably before Covid struck a spanner in the works and the Economy..

Everything else like Roe v Wade and Healthcare less so......As for BLM well they are bankrupt...Where has the money gone ???..People have been had !!

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

the-goon2 wrote:It looks like a repeat of the 2020 election.

I can't see anyone beating Trump for the nomination, as good as DeSantis is, and how well he is governing Florida; he is seen as a successor, not a challenger to Trump. He is right to run but he won't win, let's hope T and DeS don't torpedo their presidential campaign in the primaries.
As for the Dems, it will be Biden. He ran as a brainless corpse in 2020, don't see how that changes in 2024. The dems don't do challengers, they take their orders from the top, not the voter.

As for the election itself, the state of the US will be far worse in 2024 than it is today. You would therefore think that voters will want change, but I don't think that will be case. I can see the late mail-in vote drops carrying Biden to victory again.

And there are all the other variables that will no doubt throw spanners into the works.
What will BLM/Anifa and the other Democrat Brown Shirts have up their sleeves? How many cities will they burn this time?
How will the RINOs in the GOP try to sabotage Trump?

It won't be boring.

The Economy is 90% of the Election......Trump was winning in the polls comfortably before Covid struck a spanner in the works and the Economy..

Everything else like Roe v Wade and Healthcare less so......As for BLM well they are bankrupt...Where has the money gone ???..People have been had !!

I'm sure Soros or some other democrat donor will help get their Brown shirts back on the street again.

the-goon2 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

the-goon2 wrote:It looks like a repeat of the 2020 election.

I can't see anyone beating Trump for the nomination, as good as DeSantis is, and how well he is governing Florida; he is seen as a successor, not a challenger to Trump. He is right to run but he won't win, let's hope T and DeS don't torpedo their presidential campaign in the primaries.
As for the Dems, it will be Biden. He ran as a brainless corpse in 2020, don't see how that changes in 2024. The dems don't do challengers, they take their orders from the top, not the voter.

As for the election itself, the state of the US will be far worse in 2024 than it is today. You would therefore think that voters will want change, but I don't think that will be case. I can see the late mail-in vote drops carrying Biden to victory again.

And there are all the other variables that will no doubt throw spanners into the works.
What will BLM/Anifa and the other Democrat Brown Shirts have up their sleeves? How many cities will they burn this time?
How will the RINOs in the GOP try to sabotage Trump?

It won't be boring.

The Economy is 90% of the Election......Trump was winning in the polls comfortably before Covid struck a spanner in the works and the Economy..

Everything else like Roe v Wade and Healthcare less so......As for BLM well they are bankrupt...Where has the money gone ???..People have been had !!

I'm sure Soros or some other democrat donor will help get their Brown shirts back on the street again.

Is there not some kind of Reddit board where you could be spouting this sh1te to like minded knobheads?

superflyweight wrote:

the-goon2 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

the-goon2 wrote:It looks like a repeat of the 2020 election.

I can't see anyone beating Trump for the nomination, as good as DeSantis is, and how well he is governing Florida; he is seen as a successor, not a challenger to Trump. He is right to run but he won't win, let's hope T and DeS don't torpedo their presidential campaign in the primaries.
As for the Dems, it will be Biden. He ran as a brainless corpse in 2020, don't see how that changes in 2024. The dems don't do challengers, they take their orders from the top, not the voter.

As for the election itself, the state of the US will be far worse in 2024 than it is today. You would therefore think that voters will want change, but I don't think that will be case. I can see the late mail-in vote drops carrying Biden to victory again.

And there are all the other variables that will no doubt throw spanners into the works.
What will BLM/Anifa and the other Democrat Brown Shirts have up their sleeves? How many cities will they burn this time?
How will the RINOs in the GOP try to sabotage Trump?

It won't be boring.

The Economy is 90% of the Election......Trump was winning in the polls comfortably before Covid struck a spanner in the works and the Economy..

Everything else like Roe v Wade and Healthcare less so......As for BLM well they are bankrupt...Where has the money gone ???..People have been had !!

I'm sure Soros or some other democrat donor will help get their Brown shirts back on the street again.

Is there not some kind of Reddit board where you could be spouting this sh1te to like minded knobheads?  

Wouldn't your time be better spent licking walls?

the-goon2 wrote:

superflyweight wrote:

the-goon2 wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

the-goon2 wrote:It looks like a repeat of the 2020 election.

I can't see anyone beating Trump for the nomination, as good as DeSantis is, and how well he is governing Florida; he is seen as a successor, not a challenger to Trump. He is right to run but he won't win, let's hope T and DeS don't torpedo their presidential campaign in the primaries.
As for the Dems, it will be Biden. He ran as a brainless corpse in 2020, don't see how that changes in 2024. The dems don't do challengers, they take their orders from the top, not the voter.

As for the election itself, the state of the US will be far worse in 2024 than it is today. You would therefore think that voters will want change, but I don't think that will be case. I can see the late mail-in vote drops carrying Biden to victory again.

And there are all the other variables that will no doubt throw spanners into the works.
What will BLM/Anifa and the other Democrat Brown Shirts have up their sleeves? How many cities will they burn this time?
How will the RINOs in the GOP try to sabotage Trump?

It won't be boring.

The Economy is 90% of the Election......Trump was winning in the polls comfortably before Covid struck a spanner in the works and the Economy..

Everything else like Roe v Wade and Healthcare less so......As for BLM well they are bankrupt...Where has the money gone ???..People have been had !!

I'm sure Soros or some other democrat donor will help get their Brown shirts back on the street again.

Is there not some kind of Reddit board where you could be spouting this sh1te to like minded knobheads?  

Wouldn't your time be better spent licking walls?

Than conversing with you? Probably.

DeSantis' campaign launch was quite a flop. The only advantage he appears to have over Trump is the amount of funds in his possession.

Duty281 wrote:DeSantis' campaign launch was quite a flop. The only advantage he appears to have over Trump is the amount of funds in his possession.

Talking of funds, heard an interesting (subjective) anecdote this morning.

The US Treasury currently has a $50b cash balance. Less than 24 people on the Bloomberg Rich List.

Haven't fact checked the Rich List data as I can't be bothered but if it is true, it is quite alarming.

Latest Democratic primary poll..........

Biden 60%
Kennedy Jr 20%
Williamson 8%

Not a good poll for a President looking for a second term......

Obama was 89% in 2012..
Clinton 89% in 1996...

Pretty much unheard of for a reigning Democrat President to have 40% not wanting him as the candidate..

Pierce falling over the Missouri compromise and LBJ vietnam are the only Democrats that readily spring to mind.

Usually a GOP thing........Ford...Taft...Arthur....and Fillmore spring to mind as incumbents the Party wanted out...

Millard Fillmore...."The President that hated everybody"...His Wife most of all.

"Filly the thug" was the Vice President of Zach Taylor who died eating Strawberries in the White House gardens.....For years the rumor was Fillmore had poisoned him.....

That's an interesting poll. Also shows that of the 60% who support Biden, 42% of them are open to changing their minds. Only 35% overall have a favourable view of Biden, his approval rating is a terrible 40%, and 66% say a second Biden term would be either a disaster or a setback for the country.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/25/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-2024/index.html#:~:text=Within%20his%20own%20party%2C%2060,an%20unnamed%20%E2%80%9Csomeone%20else.%E2%80%9D

Shouldn't be surprising, of course. Biden squeaked the 2020 election very narrowly, and that election was effectively a referendum on Trump, it had very little to do with Biden himself. A random American plucked off the street would have done as well as Biden, possibly even better. But for 2024 the spotlight will be on Biden and he doesn't have much in the way of success to point to. The Democrats should find a different candidate, as it will be very tough for Biden to win again.

Duty281 wrote:That's an interesting poll. Also shows that of the 60% who support Biden, 42% of them are open to changing their minds. Only 35% overall have a favourable view of Biden, his approval rating is a terrible 40%, and 66% say a second Biden term would be either a disaster or a setback for the country.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/25/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-2024/index.html#:~:text=Within%20his%20own%20party%2C%2060,an%20unnamed%20%E2%80%9Csomeone%20else.%E2%80%9D

Shouldn't be surprising, of course. Biden squeaked the 2020 election very narrowly, and that election was effectively a referendum on Trump, it had very little to do with Biden himself. A random American plucked off the street would have done as well as Biden, possibly even better. But for 2024 the spotlight will be on Biden and he doesn't have much in the way of success to point to. The Democrats should find a different candidate, as it will be very tough for Biden to win again.

It was more of a covid election.........Trump wasn't good on dealing with the problem.

Rule no1......President always owns the Economy even if it isn't his fault.....

Grover Cleveland (Only President to get married at the WH) and Herbert Hoover.......Pretty much got screwed by the previous incumbent......Obama would have been if it was somebody better than Romney..

Threee debates will be a problem for Joe if it isn't Trump......

Think Biden beats Trump........But loses to a Rubio or Christie.......Probably beats Cruz or Desantis too.

EI poll...(EchelonInsights)

Kennedy Jr

Favorable......44
Unfav...........22

Biden

Favorable....40
Unfav.........58