Ireland v Scotland, Dublin, 6Ns 2024 Round 5

First topic message reminder :

Ireland have a great chance to take the title and redeem themselves against Scotland at home on St Paddy's weekend.

Scotland can try to redeem themselves... Guess we're back to where we're happiest, the dark horse underdog extraordinaire. Maybe without the dark horse tag.


Stats

Bookies say 1/10 for an Ireland win 6/1 for a Scotland upset.

Last Scotland win was 2017 at Murrayfield under Vern Cotter 27-22.

Last 8 encounters Ireland have won, the biggest margin in the 2019 WC where Ireland won 27-3, the average difference being 17 points.

Last Dublin encounter Ireland won 26-5 in 2022.

Ireland just basically have to win to win the title.

Scotland will be chasing the triple crown but a title is far less likely, with best case scenario possibly second.

Prediction

Mine will be a professional Irish win against a somewhat improved but typically limited Scotland performance. They are at least 17 points better, and none of the evidence from this year points to anything other than a continued run of form against Scotland. The points difference depends on the Scottish bench selection and use.

36-12

Townsend to finally call it quits (I hope).

Well, as we said earlier; he asked for a 1:1 with Toonie after missing out on consecutive matchday 23's. Then he dropped/ a weight fell onto his foot. Glasgow comms said the injury wouldn't mean that he'd miss any URC gametime but there was no point in him being with the squad as the bruising would stop him running at full pace.
I think there has been a falling out and Toonie is making a point. Not for the first time.

p.s. Mbawza is/are absent this week.

The Bhatti thing is a bit... mad. If toonie is determined to increase our depth at loosehead over the next 4 years thats fine. But that shouldnt be at the expense of the six nations. Summer tours for new blood etc.

Ritchie though... i didnt see the italy game in full, was he crud when he came on? Or was fagerson considered the better of the 2 off the bench? Its some fall from grace though.

Looks like the dempsey stuff is just nothing.

Tramptastic wrote:The Bhatti thing is a bit... mad. If toonie is determined to increase our depth at loosehead over the next 4 years thats fine. But that shouldnt be at the expense of the six nations. Summer tours for new blood etc.

Ritchie though... i didnt see the italy game in full, was he crud when he came on? Or was fagerson considered the better of the 2 off the bench? Its some fall from grace though.

Looks like the dempsey stuff is just nothing.

To be fair Ritchie didn't cover himself in glory against Italy. It also is partly because Christie was the kind of dynamic aggressive forward we've been looking for at 6 so he came on and didn't stand out.

Fagerson came on and did Fagerson things well, so I think from an objective viewpoint he edges that one.

From a leadership perspective it's clear neither Ritchie or price, two fairly senior players added absolutely nothing when they came on. If anything we looked worse.

Sad to see Redpath dropped. The one positive I’ve had this week has been waiting to see how Redpath does with his next full 80 after warming the bench for so many matches. Now poor McDowall is being thrown in the deep end away to Ireland. Toonie is a nutter. If McDowall is to start he should have played last weekend. Given his performance against Benetton that wouldn’t have been a bad choice at all. Redpath has been the go to second choice inside centre, why suddenly McDowall? Against Ireland?? Has the summer tour begun already? 

Sutherland is another odd choice. Great player but low in game time. 

No Ritchie. Wow. I thought he was superb against England. Bench for Italy and now not even in the match day XXIII.

No Healy?? 

Just seems a bit mad to me.

Glad you posted that bsando. I had assumed Henry Healey was benching.

So, if anything happens to Dancer then it looks like Blarehorn to 10 and either Redpath to 15 OR Shug to 15 and Stafford to 13 with Redpath at 12. Although we may copy Glasgow's strategy where Stafford defends at 12 and attacks at 13.

If we had gone with Healey on the bench it makes it a straight swap of an excellent 10 and a half decent 10. Now if POM breaks Dancer we have at least two of our backs playing out of position. Or would Toonie decide that St Paddy's Day in Dublin would be the best place for Redpath to make his debut at 10?

Ireland as they were last week
But 7/3 bench

carpet baboon wrote:Ireland as they were last week
But 7/3 bench

Ah the classic Irish XXV, is the substitution on a 2 for 1 basis?

I'm assuming (and hoping to hell) that the Mighty Staff and St Shug have played together a new times for the Soapdodgers? I agree with the comments above though - Redpath has earned some consistent selection. If we were still realistically in with a shot at the title, I'm not sure that Toonie would have done this.

George Carlin wrote:I'm assuming (and hoping to hell) that the Mighty Staff and St Shug have played together a new times for the Soapdodgers? I agree with the comments above though - Redpath has earned some consistent selection. If we were still realistically in with a shot at the title, I'm not sure that Toonie would have done this.

I'm not sure they have, certainly this season? I'm sure they combine a lot at training but I can't remember that combo on a team sheet many times at all.

George Carlin wrote:I'm assuming (and hoping to hell) that the Mighty Staff and St Shug have played together a new times for the Soapdodgers? I agree with the comments above though - Redpath has earned some consistent selection. If we were still realistically in with a shot at the title, I'm not sure that Toonie would have done this.

If Redpath had played more convincingly last week (admittedly he wasn't the only one) we still would have been in with a decent shot at the title. He looked stodgy.

I thought he was good overall. The game management after the first two tries was very poor, which I put down to the game plan. Yes Horne brings tempo and those two tries before the madness began were top drawer. As many pundits and journalists have said this week, they didn’t need to overplay and force the offloads after taking a lead. Where was the kick chase pressure? Deep kicks for territory? I think with Hogg now retired we really miss his spiral kicks that often pinned back teams in their own half.

bsando wrote:I thought he was good overall. The game management after the first two tries was very poor, which I put down to the game plan. Yes Horne brings tempo and those two tries before the madness began were top drawer. As many pundits and journalists have said this week, they didn’t need to overplay and force the offloads after taking a lead. Where was the kick chase pressure? Deep kicks for territory? I think with Hogg now retired we really miss his spiral kicks that often pinned back teams in their own half.

Tbh I think Stafford is a sound, horses for courses choice. I'm surprised he wasn't even picked on the bench against italy. He's got a great boot on him too. I also think we did miss the physicality of tuipolotu, after being a big Redpath advocate even I can't say him and Shug offered the go forward needed at times against Italy. Maybe a Redpath/McDowall axis would work better for redpath? We may  see this on Saturday anyway.

Horne is a frustrating one. He's a great scrum half and offers the most zip of any of our options bar Dobie. He really needs to work on his tactical kicking and decision making otherwise when Dobie enters the mix proper he's going to be left behind as I feel he's already showing more control from the base of the ruck. White clearly our No1 at the moment, got that ideal blend of control and snappiness.

Excited to see how Stafford goes, he’s looked great for Glasgow and his leadership may be what Scotland need to keep their heads in the game. How his defence will be in combo with Jones is a bit of a mystery. Ireland are so clinical at picking defences apart that I think that’s my biggest concern. Ireland exploited Scotland’s defence out wide at the World Cup so both Steyn and VDM will have to be on it. As will kinghorn! 

Dobie has been a bit unlucky not to get a shot I thought, perhaps given Price poor form he might have proven a better sub last week Hey ho. The rise of Ashfar is exciting though, he looks like he’s destined for Scotland honours. 

For all the talk of the centre changes, the forwards are going to have to do the most work. Really hope we see a big game from Schoe and Fagerson. Cummings too. The Irish bench is formidable so that last quarter might be a painful watch.

RDW wrote:

George Carlin wrote:I'm assuming (and hoping to hell) that the Mighty Staff and St Shug have played together a new times for the Soapdodgers? I agree with the comments above though - Redpath has earned some consistent selection. If we were still realistically in with a shot at the title, I'm not sure that Toonie would have done this.

I'm not sure they have, certainly this season? I'm sure they combine a lot at training but I can't remember that combo on a team sheet many times at all.

I believe that Stafford /Shug have started 3 times at 12-13 this season and 7times in all for Glasgow. Which is freakishly low when you think about it.

jimbopip wrote:

RDW wrote:

George Carlin wrote:I'm assuming (and hoping to hell) that the Mighty Staff and St Shug have played together a new times for the Soapdodgers? I agree with the comments above though - Redpath has earned some consistent selection. If we were still realistically in with a shot at the title, I'm not sure that Toonie would have done this.

I'm not sure they have, certainly this season? I'm sure they combine a lot at training but I can't remember that combo on a team sheet many times at all.

I believe that Stafford /Shug have started 3 times at 12-13 this season and 7times in all for Glasgow. Which is freakishly low when you think about it.

He will have trained a lot with huwipolotu though so you'd hope the familiarity is there already. That and when Stafford gets the ball the players just know to step aside and let him score, when he's defending the tackle count of every other player drops by 100% and the metres gained by the opposition goes into the negative. When we win by 80 points on Saturday and claim the title, Stafford will be hired as head coach, SRU CEO and player development lead.

Lots of people have overlooked that as it’s a head to head match against ireland the points difference to overcome is halved. So we don’t need a winning margin of nearly 80points, just 39. Just! Anyway, it’s sport stranger things have happened, it would be very Scottish to win this match with some highly irregular refereeing decisions rather than losing a match with highly irregular refereeing decisions for once.

I think the last game out vs ireland we saw a match where all the planned strategy and plays would have been scuffed after losing BK in the opening quarter. He is so important to how the scotland attack runs that it more or less derailed things there and then. Hopefully a good contest today, but if ireland go 14 pts down, I don’t think they’ll relish what would be very unfamiliar game management for their squad.

I honestly don’t know if I want us to win this or not.

Lose and it’s a shrug of the shoulders, another loss and we limp on and it may trigger change

Win and it’ll be a case of what could have been.

Besides I don’t think it’ll matter. I think we’re going to be on the back end of a spanking from Ireland after their slip last week

Mick the Miller has taken poorly. Replaced by the svelte sylph-like Sebastian.

Okay here we go. Another disappointing six nations but one last shot at the triple crown which would be a huge accomplishment.

Pause for thought. Could Italy win the six nations before us? It feels much more likely now.

Kennan out, L'amour starts.
Young Byrne out replaced on the bench by Ross.
I

Decent start. We need to harry absolute everything

You don't need to be gifting Ireland points ...

Oh boy

Hmm this attacking play feels familiar

1st quarter done, one point deficit. I’ll take that!

That was only 1% of Stafford's power. Warning shots fired Ireland!

Nervy match so far, Ireland arent playing well again.

But will Scotland go to pieces in the 2nd half?

Heaf wrote:But will Scotland go to pieces in the 2nd half?

Survey says...
Probably

Ireland seem really out of ideas.

Get a Scotland throw in on their own line ...

Finn doing Finn things

Should have been a pen to Scotland before that Irish pen - Irish No 14 runs straight past the side of the ruck and takes out Scottish defender ... I thought you had to come through the gate?

The collapse begins. Be gentle Ireland

Now the 15 did it - how is this allowed?

No seperation surely, my god.

Collapse2005 wrote:No seperation surely, my god.

Poor decision, but nice to be on the positive side of a weird decision.

Don't worry it won't affect the outcome!

Im not so sure, this seems to be one of those days nothing goes your way.

Collapse2005 wrote:No seperation surely, my god.

I believe Marius Jonker is the TMO?

My bet says that was a bloody try!! Meh.

Collapse2005 wrote:Im not so sure, this seems to be one of those days nothing goes your way.

I don't know, have you seen the accuracy of our attack?

Heaf wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:No seperation surely, my god.

I believe Marius Jonker is the TMO?

Think so. Anyway they just need to dig deeper and bring this home.

Two teams going out there trying not to lose

NeilyBroon wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:No seperation surely, my god.

Poor decision, but nice to be on the positive side of a weird decision.

Don't worry it won't affect the outcome!

On the other hand I don't think Ireland should have been in that position - ref is allowing them to run past rucks and take out defenders - just like the ABs got away with for years. I can't work out why no-one is seeing it - maybe it's allowed now and I missed a law change?

tigertattie wrote:Two teams going out there trying not to lose

Does have the french game vibe. Must be dull as dishwater for a neutral. Only a matter of time before Ireland dismantle us.

Christie been a beast

Heaf wrote:

NeilyBroon wrote:

Collapse2005 wrote:No seperation surely, my god.

Poor decision, but nice to be on the positive side of a weird decision.

Don't worry it won't affect the outcome!

On the other hand I don't think Ireland should have been in that position - ref is allowing them to run past rucks and take out defenders - just like the ABs got away with for years. I can't work out why no-one is seeing it - maybe it's allowed now and I missed a law change?

There's a lot to be said for just being a consistently successful side, refs tend to assume you're just playing better so a lot of things go under the radar.

RDW wrote:Christie been a beast

So pleased for him, he's absolutely deserved his opportunities. He's a monster.

Absolutely! What a game he’s having.

It does have the feel that the dam is likely to burst soon though ...