IF, IF, New Zealand do not, i repeat do not win the Rugby World Cup! !

This year, Who do you expect to win? Every body is expecting NZ to win it this year with out even trying very hard.

My self although i would like England to win, But i do believe that this year could be too early for England at the moment.

I realy think Australia might just surprise us this year.

Who do you think/expect to win if New Zealand Dont win?

Outside bet on Ireland to surprise us all.

maestegmafia wrote:Outside bet on Ireland to surprise us all.

Including Ireland as well

According to the latest rankings ireland is at no. 4. Has that happened often?

I would still go for one of the other 3N. On the day anything can happen...to a point.

It can be odd which teams trip each other up. I'd be shocked if NZ didn't win, but I think if anyone were to beat them, it might well be the Boks rather than Aus. I could then see Aus beating SA in the final. For the last three tournaments, the side that beat NZ went on to lose their next game.

Australia I reckon will win it. I'd like Ireland to though, even though living in Dublin I'd get no end of stick.

I've gone past caring about what will happen in the leadup because so many different approaches have led to nothing. Just resigned to us stuffing it up and hoping that in spite of that NZ puts on a great event we can be proud of. The event itself is more important than NZ winning. We've seen NZ host some awesome events in the last 10 years and they can do so again. Problem is this is a rugby tournament!

Not quite yet where you're at Disney not too far away either!

I never expect any side to win a RWC before a match is played,a lot of factors
effect the results.
New Zealand are only favourites on last years results,3Ns will give a closer
indication.Injuries sustained will mean all SH sides will be missing players given it finishes only a fortnight before RWC starts.
I expect a SH side will win ,but that is only on History if a NH side I would like it to be France for a change.
AS to NZ winning despite being one of there greatest fans,I don`t expect them to win if they do Ok.If not well they`ve been there before.

I don't think the 3N is a real indication as we've won every 3N in a world cup year and look where that got us! Especially as there may well be tinkering as Henry intimated-especially at 7 and 10.

Ive said all along...i really think SA will do it again.

I really hope that soon a team other than one that has already won the RWC takes the title.

It would be great to see a South Sea Islander team win it.

Maesteg,

I dont think your alone there (though i would like England to win it again), but i have a suspicion that we may be waiting a while. The only ones i could possibly see is France or Ireland (if they hit their rampaging best for the entire cup)

I know Ireland and France may seem like leftfield choices but I would say they are well in the mix.

Slightly down trodden over the last year or so, but both teams have played around positionally and blooded a few new players so their results have dropped accordingly, but a year ago and the year before that they were looking very tidy indeed.

I just think France are too subdued. They need to be unleashed and told to play their normal style....big powerful forwards and backs who just let loose from anywhere.

GeordieFalcon wrote:I just think France are too subdued. They need to be unleashed and told to play their normal style....big powerful forwards and backs who just let loose from anywhere.

There is a thought in the positive camp behind Leivremonts regime that he has tried to breakdown the over coached ethic that Laport instilled previously, trying to free up french players on the field.

I can see that point to a degree, though I think it sometimes has left them like scared rabbits in headlights... on the other side they can beat the all blacks in New Zealand and have done so recently. Not many other international sides can boast that..!

Aw any French side is dangerous i agree totally....

majesticimperialman wrote:This year, Who do you expect to win? Every body is expecting NZ to win it this year with out even trying very hard.

My self although i would like England to win, But i do believe that this year could be too early for England at the moment.

I realy think Australia might just surprise us this year.

Who do you think/expect to win if New Zealand Dont win?

Who is this "everybody" who is expecting NZ to win without trying very hard? This is utter nonsense. Can we all remember who is saying this kind of nonsense later please? We'll hear cries of "those arrogant Kiwis" shortly. I haven't met an AB fan who thinks any such thing.

Well lets be fair New Zealand aren't going to have to try hard. It's going to be a very one sided world cup I believe. All Blacks can't/won't lose to anyone in NZ, not even SA who were thrashed the last two times they played there.

But saying that, the next tri-nations will be a good indicator of events to come.

I have no confidence at all that we are going to win it let alone win it comfortably. May be a few Scots and Welshmen might think that but I bet you the Aus, SA fans dont think that and a few French and English players might want to argue the point as well.

Seems like a bunch of non kiwis are being arrogant for us.

If not NZ I am picking Australia. While they are not great wet weather footballers, if they put their A team on the park (which did not happen once last year) they have shown they can beat NZ and SA and they did so last year. They play the ABs and SA a lot which gives them good background and have been involved in many nailing biting close games with them which will stand them in good stead. I think their scrum will be fine with Polota-Nau, Kefu, Vickerman and Palu coming back (none played last year) - but their weakness is still goal kicking. Ireland, France and England have shown they can beat anyone, but to win a world cup they will have to play out of their skins for several back to back games - I do not think those sides are used to producing such form consistently week in week out.

nganboy wrote:I have no confidence at all that we are going to win it let alone win it comfortably. May be a few Scots and Welshmen might think that but I bet you the Aus, SA fans dont think that and a few French and English players might want to argue the point as well.

Seems like a bunch of non kiwis are being arrogant for us.

That last sentence summed it up. I thin Australia will win it, and most of the Kiwis on here are realistic as we all know what's happened before. Then when we do stuff it up all those non-Kiwis who said we'd do it in a doddle give us stick for not doing it, conveniently ignoring our own weary posts!

I honestly can't see anyone other than one of the SH teams winning.

England do seem to be progressing nicely but IMO its 4 years to early, for us (Welsh) then if we get to the Semis that will be seen as a good tournament in my eyes even though I have had a flutter on us to win.

France would be a good outside bet but we all know that they don't travel well and who knows what France will turn up on the day.

bedfordwelsh wrote:France would be a good outside bet but we all know that they don't travel well

They didn't seem to travel too badly when they beat the All Blacks in New Zealand a season or two ago...

Australia.

My moneys on Oz if NZ bottle it yet AGAIN

The closer to the tournament we get the more I think SA might do it again. They have a real "arrogance" and self belief and have the uncanny ability to peak at the WC.

NZ are the best side for sure but are very reliant in the form of a few key individuals like Carter, SBW, Smith etc.

France are dark horses too.

Wales have the potential to really surprise and have a great tournament but I don't think they can win it. On paper they have a really strong side.

Australia.

They have the backline to rip any side to pieces, and recent failings against England will not be repeated with their first choice front row on board.

If NZ don't win it (which they will, probably.... I think, perhaps)...

then it's either Aus or SA

England and France have an outside chance.

The rest, well thanks for coming!

SafeAsMilk wrote:If NZ don't win it (which they will, probably.... I think, perhaps)...

then it's either Aus or SA

England and France have an outside chance.

The rest, well thanks for coming!

HAHA. Thanks for coming classic!!

SafeAsMilk wrote:England and France have an outside chance.

The rest, well thanks for coming!

I don't think England have any more chance of winning than Wales, Ireland, Argentina or any other team outside of the top 3 and France .

They have a favourable draw which gives them a reasonable chance of reaching the final. However I haven't seen a shread of evidence in the past 7/8 seasons to suggest that they are any more capable of beating SA or NZ than any of the other NH countries.

I think the draw gives England an outside chance, because they can get to the semi-final without having to face a Tri-nations team, and even then it'll be the one SH side they've managed to beat away recently. But as I said before, they'll be facing a very different Australia if it comes to that, and my prediction is that Australia have the firepower in the backs to overcome all but the All Blacks.

England certainly have a better chance than Wales. Even if Wales get out of that group, they'll be in pieces.

funnyExiledScot wrote:England certainly have a better chance than Wales. Even if Wales get out of that group, they'll be in pieces.

That's what they said about the English in 2007. In fact we had Tonga instead of Fiji.

HammerofThunor wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:England certainly have a better chance than Wales. Even if Wales get out of that group, they'll be in pieces.

That's what they said about the English in 2007. In fact we had Tonga instead of Fiji.

I'd forgotten about that! Blimey, SA, Samoa and Tonga. Makes reaching the final even more incredible.

I think many people, even the Welsh, are seriously underestimating Wales. If they are injury free then they'll have a strong pack, excellent back row, experienced half backs and some world class backs.

In fact if they could turn over SA and win their group then they're more than capable of beating Ireland in the QF.

Of course you wouldn't fancy their chances against NZ but a SF place is not beyond them.

I think the bottom line is that there's only 3 sides with a chance against the AB's: Australia, SA and France. Most of the other top 7 are capable of beating each other so if the AB's were to get knocked out then the tournamament would really open up, other wise it's hard to see past the SH 3 and France.

England in 2007 were a far more robust outfit than Wales are now. I don't necessarily mean better and certainly not more skillful, but England in 2007 were an absolute tank of a side, so I certainly wouldn't have taken the view that they would exit their group in pieces, far from it.

Regan, Sheridan, Shaw, Kay, Corry and Easter.....all in the same pack!

funnyExiledScot wrote:England in 2007 were a far more robust outfit than Wales are now. I don't necessarily mean better and certainly not more skillful, but England in 2007 were an absolute tank of a side, so I certainly wouldn't have taken the view that they would exit their group in pieces, far from it.

Regan, Sheridan, Shaw, Kay, Corry and Easter.....all in the same pack!

I can't remember the injury count after or during the group stages, but those were tough nuts. Exactly what you need for that kind of situation. It may not have been pretty but it worked. That whole was definitely more than the sum of its parts.

BATH_BTGOG wrote:My moneys on Oz if NZ bottle it yet AGAIN

I see. So it's basically a set up then? All NH fans are declaring that NZ will win without even trying, such is their apparent superiority so that if NZ is knocked out there can be a chorus of what tremendous chokers NZ are, and how arrogant all those fans were to suggest NZ only had to turn up to win it.

Right, what's up? bored with the "NZ only win because they poach South Sea Islanders" tack today?

GreyGhost - I don't think anyone suggests the All Blacks will win without trying, just that the ABs are rightly red hot favourites to win the WC. They are the number 1 ranked side and playing at home, surely even you can concede that anything less than a failure to win this time round will be an underachievement.

This thread is really who the bookies ought to rank second.

"I don't think anyone suggests the All Blacks will win without trying"

Really?

This year, Who do you expect to win? Every body is expecting NZ to win it this year with out even trying very hard.

Well lets be fair New Zealand aren't going to have to try hard. It's going to be a very one sided world cup I believe

Lets approach this scientifically
Scenario 1
NZ do not qualify for the qtr finals
Result
No winner, chaos, civil war likely tournament cancelled, 30 or so New Zealanders quietly exit the country under the protection of the SAS to establish a breeding colony for future England players

Scenario 2
NZ are knocked out in the qtr finals
Result
Argentina on a roll & win the World Cup

Scenario 3
NZ are knocked out in the semi finals
Result
Lots of sly “choker” comments, winner SA

Scenario 4
NZ lose in the final
Result
Lots of sly “choker” comments, winner England (via a forward pass & foot in touch)

G2 wrote:Lets approach this scientifically
Scenario 1
NZ do not qualify for the qtr finals
Result
No winner, chaos, civil war likely tournament cancelled, 30 or so New Zealanders quietly exit the country under the protection of the SAS to establish a breeding colony for future England players

Scenario 2
NZ are knocked out in the qtr finals
Result
Argentina on a roll & win the World Cup

Scenario 3
NZ are knocked out in the semi finals
Result
Lots of sly “choker” comments, winner SA

Scenario 4
NZ lose in the final
Result
Lots of sly “choker” comments, winner England (via a forward pass & foot in touch)

Rev, you might be needed!

TheGreyGhost wrote:

BATH_BTGOG wrote:My moneys on Oz if NZ bottle it yet AGAIN

Right, what's up? bored with the "NZ only win because they poach South Sea Islanders" tack today?

Can you imagine waht the South sea island nations would be like if NZ didn't poach their players!!!!

GreyGhost - I take it back. Those are indeed stupid comments.

Indeed, they are.

If anybody knows the word that means "building up the opposition into unbeatable god like beings, so that we can revel even more in the event that they lose, deflect any feeling of inadequacy in our own defeats, and also celebrate ourselves more on that basis in the event that we in fact win" then I'll be glad to know it, because it will save me an awful lot of typing between now and October.

Well I have faith in the boys but given our semi final and final likely candidates, I´d say SA and Australia have the best chance of winning the World Cup as they have experience of winning in NZ (although not at Eden Park). Of the teams who are competing, France probably have the best record at Eden Park so they´re worth a shout. England have a good record against Australia but not against NZ in World Cups but it´d be the final so anything could happen.

I just really hope it doesn´t come to that but given the quality of the Super15 sides it seems to be pretty even at this stage of the season and England and France will always be there or thereabouts with Ireland as dark horses along with Argentina worth a punt.

IMHO, the S15 doesn't mean diddle. Test matches are a whole new level of intensity. It looks to me like a lot of the incumbent players are coasting. Year after year we saw Donald like the goods in Super Rugby but then appear to be a fish out of water on the test stage. Nothing would make me happier than for the Blues and Crusaders to go out this weekend. Last thing we need is a Blues/Crusaders final where they knock 7 bells out of each other for 80 minutes and we lose half a dozen ABs at this stage of the season.

I agree with Greyghost.

The super 15 only really depicts depth in the respective countries. I'd say that NZ and SA have more depth than OZ, but that's about all you can take out of the Super XV.

Another thing, although NZ are going into this RWC as favorites, and rightly so. It still only means they are favorites.

If you look at their home record which is absolutely the best in the business, then it suggests that NZ is clear favorites because the tournament is at home for them.

But let's not forget this is not a one off or short tour for the participating countries, they will be there for a much longer period, their wives will most likel be there too, this means that it won't be as foreign and difficult for the other countries as a short tour will be.

Add to that the purpose minded teams, the euphoria of competing in a world cup and all of a sudden a few teams can pull it off on the day.

I would say apart from NZ, the follwing countries have a realistic chance if it goes well on the day and things like injury, bans etc. does not reduce their best 22 too much. England, australia, SA and France.

Why only those four, becuase Wales and Ireland although good international teams tour very poorly away from Europe.

I don`t think any genuine All Black supporterexpects to win a RWC,let alone
just by turning up.
That was the media hype from other nations NOT NZ`s experience has shown that NZ are the best side in the World [by results].But not in the RWC.
Tournament play,and knockout play are two seperate things in a 3Ns you are playing home and away.
Win your home games,bonus points from away games,hopefully pick up an away game.win Tournament,applies in S15 too.
Knockout drop one game,your on the way home for 4 years,you don`t have to be the best side in the tournament.Just beat whoever you meet.
THAT is not mean`t as a put down of any side in the RWC,for example France was probably the best NH side in 2007 but lost to Argentina twice.
Not many pundits would have picked that pre =tourney or that England with there post 2003 record much chance of reaching the Final 2007 either.
France no how to win in New Zealand?what a 3 point win versus the weakest AB side for years,and a stronger French side losing by 2 points versus the same weak side a week later.
Take the travel factor out in RWCs and all teams start equal,after the 3Ns a clearer picture will emerge.The SH squads will be known,refereeing trends of the breakdown will be clearer.
To make bald statements like All Blacks are not the same without Carter,McCaw,SBW,Smith,same applies SA without Du Preez,Matfield, Burger,etc.Is facile teams adapt Crusaders[hard core of ABs]have adapted with injuries to FH,2 SH.,2 locks,FB,Number 7 ,Wing,Centre,at times.
The players concerned were rated either or near number one in the World in there positions.Adapted and kept on winning.
S15 does`nt equal test Rugby ,and RWCs are very special because there is usually a giant killer in the mix.
At full strength on neutral turf [which a RWC is virtually] all the SH sides are roughly as good as the other.
The weather could be a strong factor,wet weather in places like Athletic Park tend to be very wet.
Expect all teams to mix ball in hand with the kicking game,and may the best team win.

Bless you Alan for calling it Athletic Park. It will be always Lancaster Park to me. Sadly it´s not anything now. AMI is an insurance company and you don´t want to be one of those with eathquake pay-outs on the cards.

I agree the Super15 is not test rugby GG. But I do think SA have shown that they have done some catching up from last year when they got the 3N wooden spoon. Not that they were that far behind but they have shown, as you point out Biltong, that they have some good depth at the moment and P Divvy has some options, even though when it comes to the crunch we all know he has his favoured senior players in his mind to do the business for SA one last time.

All the S15 sides have got their injury worries. I do agree as well GG that an Auckland win wouldn´t be a good result if the Crusaders do pull off a win (I don´t see it happening to be honest even though my heart says yes). A bit of wounded pride would be a timely thing coming into the World Cup. For that reason, I don´t even mind a 3N loss as we seem to win every 3N in a world cup year and that has never done us any favours.

I loved Athletic park! Hypothermia was my friend