Leinster V Cardiff Blues Lansdowne rd

by Jenifer McLadyboy Tue 03 Apr 2012, 9:30 am

First topic message reminder :

Surprised there's no thread already. Leinster massive favourites at home. Cardiff Blues coming in under the radar.

Could there be an upset?

This time 6 years ago an unfancied Leinster travelled to the home of European Rugby. To a team that would have just won 3 in a row but for the famous Rob Howley try in 04. (They won in 03 and 05 and lost in the dying minutes of the 04 final)

Leinster played the most incredible game against them and took Toulouse out of it. (Sadly blew it on Black Sunday v Munster in the semi, and then lost the Celtic league to a late drop goal by David Humphries in Wales on the last day of the league)

Could Cardiff Blues pull a similar stroke? Will Jamie Roberts play? Is Sam Warburton really out? How fit is Gethin? Henson is defo out anyway.

Leinster have close to a full deck......... Worried about any knockout game, and worried about the low key buildup here and the fact that the Blues could put one big game together and give us a shock.

by **rodders** Wed 04 Apr 2012, 2:51 pm

thebluesmancometh wrote:
Teams generally fall under 2 catagories, destructive scrummagers Like Ulster and counter scrummagers. Leinster are very much a counter scrummaging team, along with the likes of Edinburgh, Glasgow, and recently the Scarlets. There is a 3rd catagory for the likes of the Munster but I don't want to be rude!

+ 1

by Guest Wed 04 Apr 2012, 2:56 pm

Gibson wrote:
rugbydreamer wrote:What if Ross get's injured though? Leinster have a good scrum, but it's not something I've ever seen them be able to use as a weapon such as teams like Saracens and Saints can do.

Maybe you missed the games v Toulouse, ASM, Sarries, Saints(I was with you ) and Tigers games, last season Dreamer? VDM is a powerful scrummager also. This, is really an online V2 myth as far as I can see.

As for Leinster using technique to get us out of Dodge at the scrum... That's what its all about. Technique.

Must be just me?

Honestly? I don't see the Leinster scrum as being a massive weapon. It's honestly not something I associate with Leintser at all. I agree Leinster have a good scrum. It's solid, very rarely finds itself in trouble and provides the backs with the perfect platform to play off. It doesn't need to do anything more. But nope, I don't recall that it's ever fully dominated another scrum. (The Saints match last year, sure you guys were exceptional 2nd half, but I still remember in the 1st half, and your scrum, dominant? It most certainly was not Smile

)

by Mickado Wed 04 Apr 2012, 2:57 pm

He made fame after he demolished Connacht I think it was.

I thought people started to realize his worth after he (and Cian Healy) destroyed the England scrum last year…?

by **rodders** Wed 04 Apr 2012, 2:59 pm

Mickado wrote:
He made fame after he demolished Connacht I think it was.

I thought people started to realize his worth after he (and Cian Healy) destroyed the England scrum last year…?

Oh dear...why do I already know what the comeback will be to this one?! Crying or Very sad

by Mickado Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:00 pm

rugbydreamer wrote:
Gibson wrote:
rugbydreamer wrote:What if Ross get's injured though? Leinster have a good scrum, but it's not something I've ever seen them be able to use as a weapon such as teams like Saracens and Saints can do.

Maybe you missed the games v Toulouse, ASM, Sarries, Saints(I was with you ) and Tigers games, last season Dreamer? VDM is a powerful scrummager also. This, is really an online V2 myth as far as I can see.

As for Leinster using technique to get us out of Dodge at the scrum... That's what its all about. Technique.

Must be just me?

Honestly? I don't see the Leinster scrum as being a massive weapon. It's honestly not something I associate with Leintser at all. I agree Leinster have a good scrum. It's solid, very rarely finds itself in trouble and provides the backs with the perfect platform to play off. It doesn't need to do anything more. But nope, I don't recall that it's ever fully dominated another scrum. (The Saints match last year, sure you guys were exceptional 2nd half, but I still remember in the 1st half, and your scrum, dominant? It most certainly was not )

We got onto the subject when bluesman said our scrum was “garbage”, he’s since revised the word garbage but he still think’s our scrum is poor. A few people have said it’s destructive, the truth is somewhere in the middle (closer to the latter than the former Wink

)

by Mickado Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:03 pm

roddersm wrote:
Mickado wrote:
He made fame after he demolished Connacht I think it was.

I thought people started to realize his worth after he (and Cian Healy) destroyed the England scrum last year…?

Oh dear...why do I already know what the comeback will be to this one?!

I’ll preempt that comeback now Rodders – “yeah but look what happened this year”.

To which I will reply – “Ross was injured, Tom Court came on, he’s a LH, not a tighthead, also what has that got to do with the Leinster scrum if Ross was off the pitch…?”

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:04 pm

thebluesmancometh wrote:Ever since he came in our scrum has been one of the best in Europe.

And my statement was laughable?????

He made fame after he demolished Connacht I think it was. Ireland had no TH worth his salt and Leinster were mullered by Tolouse, and many others that year! He was renowned as the scrum geek and branded for his ability, despite still getting exposed now and then this season and last! I may have been a bit crass with my wording garbage, and decent may not be the right words but he is by no means a tier 1 scrummager in Europe!!

Ross is a good scrummager, as is Paul James, but thats what theyre there for, they are decent around the park, but offer little. When pitted against the top in Europe Ross needs help, there are some absolute monsters when it comes to scrummaging and Ross is no where near that standard. He does a job for Leinster and Ireland.

The scrum is a unit. It takes 8 men to push, but that comes after the most important part, the hit. If you win the hit you drive through, if you lose the hit you bail. If the hit is equal you have the wrestle to see who gets on top.

Ross and Leinster are very good at picking and choosing when to compete, and there is a difference between going toe to toe with scrummaging teams and winning your own ball.

A destructive scrummaging team like O's look to dominate and push opposing teams off the ball, teams counter this by getting the ball out quickly and sacrificing the platform, or a possible strike move! Have you noticed how many times Heaslip, SOB or Ruddock picks up and goes? It's not because it's a usefull tactic it's necessity, they need to eliminate the contest and set a better platform from a ruck.

Teams generally fall under 2 catagories, destructive scrummagers and counter scrummagers. Leinster are very much a counter scrummaging team, along with the likes of Edinburgh, Glasgow, and recently the Scarlets. There is a 3rd catagory for the likes of the Dragons, Bluse and Connacht but I don't want to be rude!

bluesman, I don't want to butt into your debate, but I would have said that Glasgow (injuries permitting) are actually a destructive scrummaging unit: Welsh-MacArthur-Cusack with Grant-Fergoos-Low - both extremely strong. Unfortunately the refereeing of the scrum is so variable these days, it's less of a weapon for all teams, which is a real loss

by red_stag Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:05 pm

Roman Poite being the one exception to that Asbo.

What he does isn't wrong but it is different to how other refs do it. If you have a good scrum he is a good ref to get.

by thebluesmancometh Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:06 pm

I did say the word garbage was a bit crass, but it is certainly not a top scrum in europe, as Ross is not the most destructive scrummager in europe!

The game against England wasn't a demolishing, and as I said it is a 8 man unit, despite Ross getting all the laudits then.

The write up however about him being the scrum geek happened well before that, I remember seeing an interview, reading it in the newspapers, and hearing it on the radio a few weeks before a tournament where Irelands scrum and TH problems were at their highest.

Like I said, Leinsters scrum is decent, but not good. It can and will be exploited, sadly not by the Blues though!

by thebluesmancometh Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:09 pm

100

I would agree, there are some destructive scrummagers there individually but I very rarely see the unit become so. They are either out thought or pinged regularly.

Still they are one of the better scrums in the rabo, behind the likes of O's, and recently Ulster, not to mention the Italians t home.

by Mickado Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:09 pm

thebluesmancometh wrote:I did say the word garbage was a bit crass, but it is certainly not a top scrum in europe, as Ross is not the most destructive scrummager in europe!

The game against England wasn't a demolishing, and as I said it is a 8 man unit, despite Ross getting all the laudits then.

The write up however about him being the scrum geek happened well before that, I remember seeing an interview, reading it in the newspapers, and hearing it on the radio a few weeks before a tournament where Irelands scrum and TH problems were at their highest.

Like I said, Leinsters scrum is decent, but not good. It can and will be exploited, sadly not by the Blues though!

Fair enough, we’ll just agree to disagree then pal guinness

What do you mean by “it can and will be exploited” though? If Clermont, Toulouse, Racing Metro, Montpellier, Nothampton, Saracens and Leicester aren’t going to expose it, then who will?

by thebluesmancometh Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:13 pm

Ospreys did for one! Northampton did.

You have to remember they play to their strengths, as I said Heaslip SOB and Ruddock all pick up and carry asap, not because they love it but because they are trying to negate the contest.

The way refereeing is teams can get away with scrum deficiencies by dropping it after they don't win the hit, or popping up during the wrestle phase. Leinster tend not to drive often, they stand stiff hold and play off the back straight away, set the ruck and the more secure breakdown.

When teams get a more fair contest, and the ref allows a contest Leinster struggle, and will continue to. The blues have a garbage scrum at the minute and thats not being too crass but the two teams might have a decent contest there if nowhere else!

by Mickado Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:25 pm

Ospreys didn’t expose Leinster’s scrum as being poor, they exposed the fact that once we rest our first choice tighthead, and our second and third choice tightheads are injured, that our third choice loosehead cannot fill in at number 3. What team could live with that?

Northampton exposed nothing other than the fact that we can adapt our technique and live with anyone.

I’ve already said I think we hold our own against good scrums and can use our scrum as a weapon against poor ones. Holding our own, meaning we can gain parity. If we gain parity and the scrum doesn’t move forward or backwards then why wouldn’t the number 8 pick and go?

by the-goon Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:36 pm

Blue,

The O's heand a slight upper hand in the scrums for most of the game i'll give you that but only started exploiting it when both our tightheads went off injured and a academy loosehead had to come on a tighthead. Losing 2 TH in one match is just bad luck and an isolated incident, it does not mean we have a weak scrum. You make some good points but you need to backpeddle and say Leinster have a good scrum that mixes it with the best, not dominates but hold its own and can provide a platform and exploite a weak scrum before you start looking silly. I'd say its about top 6 or 7 in Europe, solid upper mid table.

by wales606 Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:48 pm

Kingshu wrote:So Cardiff have the better Scrum, and Leinster are slight underdogs.

Im confused - I didn't think those words could ever go in that order...even in a flagrant lie - I thought they would just refuse

by wales606 Wed 04 Apr 2012, 3:50 pm

Also, Leinster have a very good scrum - Capable of parity with anyone, and can dominate lesser teams...as we will no doubt see on Saturday.

Andrews vs Healy

Fun...if Andrews gets injured then its that 30yr old premiership player to come on.

by asoreleftshoulder Wed 04 Apr 2012, 4:30 pm

I'll be hoping for a pretty comfortable Leinster win,I think it'd be tough if Cardiff had a full side but at the moment their's too much going against them.

I want to see Luke Fitz kick on,he looked dangerous the other night and hopefully is getting back to the form he was showing before Christmas,I think the next 2 years could be really big for him as he shows signs of finally delivering on his potential.

by red_stag Wed 04 Apr 2012, 4:48 pm

I perosnally think Mike Ross is an over rated scrummager.

However he really really loves scrums and we have not had a player who relishes scrums in Ireland to the same extent since the amatuer days.

I really think this has had a big impact on how the whole team (both Leinster and Ireland) perceive scrummaging and I think after a few horribly lean years ahead I can see us coming out other side with some handy props and a good attitude towards the scrum.

That was what Mike Ross brought.

by Gibson Wed 04 Apr 2012, 5:45 pm

rugbydreamer wrote:
Gibson wrote:
rugbydreamer wrote:What if Ross get's injured though? Leinster have a good scrum, but it's not something I've ever seen them be able to use as a weapon such as teams like Saracens and Saints can do.

Maybe you missed the games v Toulouse, ASM, Sarries, Saints(I was with you ) and Tigers games, last season Dreamer? VDM is a powerful scrummager also. This, is really an online V2 myth as far as I can see.

As for Leinster using technique to get us out of Dodge at the scrum... That's what its all about. Technique.

Must be just me?

Honestly? I don't see the Leinster scrum as being a massive weapon. It's honestly not something I associate with Leintser at all. I agree Leinster have a good scrum. It's solid, very rarely finds itself in trouble and provides the backs with the perfect platform to play off. It doesn't need to do anything more. But nope, I don't recall that it's ever fully dominated another scrum. (The Saints match last year, sure you guys were exceptional 2nd half, but I still remember in the 1st half, and your scrum, dominant? It most certainly was not )

Oh yes, in the 1st half we were out-thought and subsequently out-fought at the scrum. We were being mullered and paid the price. True. But, surely the real test of a great side, is to turn that around 100% and make it a weapon, to beat possibly one of the best scrums in Europe into submission? Our technique was all wrong and Saints took full advantage of it. Feek sorted it out at HT and this happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=meJd5gGjdGc#t=280s

I rest my case M'lord. zen

by kunu Wed 04 Apr 2012, 5:46 pm

lotta rubbish being talked about the leinster scrum here. last time the full front row were on the end of a hiding was against toulouse 2 years ago, and healy was only learning his trade then. Bad day at the office v england after 4 games in 4 weeks, was evidently in bits. Take that game out of the equation and healy in particular has had a brilliant season. leinster dont use the scrum as a weapon mostly because they have no need to...

by BoyneRFC Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:22 am

I've never seen a more subdued build up to a HEC QF as this one.

This really is shaping up to be a savaging the way Cardiff fans are going on.

Shame, as no body likes to see a complete massacre.. or do they?

I certainly dont think it will do Leinster any good to win by 40 points, but looking at the potential teams to line out, I wouldn't rule it out.

by red_stag Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:25 am

Ok a semi final related question.

Could Leinster beat Clermont in France? I dont think they could.

by Liam Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:27 am

Blues to win by 2, Dan Parks drop goal in the 78th minute, Blues into the Semi's. Anyone agree?

by **rodders** Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:28 am

red_stag wrote:Ok a semi final related question.

Could Leinster beat Clermont in France? I dont think they could.

Not with that scrum...... Whistle

.......

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:33 am

BoyneRFC wrote:I've never seen a more subdued build up to a HEC QF as this one.

This really is shaping up to be a savaging the way Cardiff fans are going on.

Shame, as no body likes to see a complete massacre.. or do they?

I certainly dont think it will do Leinster any good to win by 40 points, but looking at the potential teams to line out, I wouldn't rule it out.

Agreed, Boyne (and welcome [back, sort of], btw), and I don't think that they had the toughest of pools either - don't think it will do Leinster any favours if the score pans out as predicted and they have to travel for their semi

by BoyneRFC Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:36 am

Thanks asbo

red_stag wrote:Ok a semi final related question.

Could Leinster beat Clermont in France? I dont think they could.

The match would be in Lyon, not Clermont. Hardly a fortress for them. Weren't they beaten by lowly Biaritz last week away from home? Not the same animal outside the massif central.

by SecretFly Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:40 am

Leinster beating Clermont in France?

Well, they'd have to try if they want to retain the title. I think stranger things have happened on the way to the fair.

by **rodders** Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:57 am

Ulster should have beaten Clermont out there so Leinster certainly can do it. Its a horrible draw though.

It all comes down to how many Leinster players Hines can hold down at the ruck at the same time without getting penalised .... Wink

I think it may be Saracens who get through though.

by red_stag Thu 05 Apr 2012, 10:58 am

I also think Sarries will get through but I think Leinster will find it easier to win.

Clermont have a great home record but are very poor on the road.

by Jenifer McLadyboy Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:00 am

SecretFly wrote:Leinster beating Clermont in France?

Well, they'd have to try if they want to retain the title. I think stranger things have happened on the way to the fair.

We are peaking at the right time. All our players are fit. You have got to believe Joe has a plan. And a cunning one at that. We can rest players as much as needed as we are close to having the league sown up.

We are far from unbeatable, but.......

We fear no one. Bring it on!

Teams will be more afraid of us than we are of them.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:02 am

roddersm wrote:Ulster should have beaten Clermont out there so Leinster certainly can do it. Its a horrible draw though.

It all comes down to how many Leinster players Hines can hold down at the ruck at the same time without getting penalised ....

I think it may be Saracens who get through though.

I hope he does, only so that we get another raft of his brilliant twitter responses Wink

PS IF it is Clermont and Leinster that go thru!

by Gibson Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:32 am

ASM will play their SF in Bordeaux, IF they beat Sarries.

We are a better team and 23 than both, Id fancy our chances of beating either of them away. Prefer Sarries in London, but ASM in Bordeaux would be ok too. Its not their home-ground - which is a nightmare to play in. Their fans are unreal.

Got to beat the best to be the best. Its how we won it last year.

Off to Dublin in a hour. The weekend starts here. Best of luck to all teams in the QF's.

Believe.

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:33 am

red_stag wrote:Ok a semi final related question.

Could Leinster beat Clermont in France? I dont think they could.

The use of the word "could" is a little silly Stag. Of course the "could".
Not nearly as likely if the game was in Dublin but they defintely could win it.

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:34 am

Also:

If all Irish fans could join hands and pray that McFadden gets selected ahead of Darcy it may just happen.

by red_stag Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:34 am

Sorry Pete. I meant "do you think they will".

by **rodders** Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:39 am

Gibson wrote:
Off to Dublin in a hour. The weekend starts here. Best of luck to all teams in the QF's.

Believe.

Have a good one Gibson! guinness

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:40 am

Fair enough sir.

I think they have a 50/50 chance. If in Dublin I'd say 9 times out of 10 they would win it.
I'd put money on them to win in France though but very little

by BoyneRFC Thu 05 Apr 2012, 11:41 am

ASM will play their SF in Bordeaux, IF they beat Sarries.

Are you sure about that? I heard Lyon....

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 05 Apr 2012, 12:53 pm

Team announcement at 1 I assume? Will ti come with the Leinster A team do people reckon?

by Morgannwg Thu 05 Apr 2012, 12:54 pm

I wish the weekend would hurry up... Sad

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 05 Apr 2012, 12:56 pm

Just saw this: The Leinster A team fair to say anyone involved in this won't play Sat

LEINSTER ‘A’:

15: David Kearney
14: Andrew Conway
13: Brendan Macken
12: Colm O’Shea
11: Fionn Carr
10: Noel Reid
9: Luke McGrath

1: Jack McGrath
2: Aaron Dundon
3: Martin Moore
4: Damian Browne
5: Mark Flanagan
6: Rhys Ruddock CAPTAIN
7: Dominic Ryan
8: Leo Auva’a

REPLACEMENTS:

16: Thomas Sexton
17: Jack O’Connell
18: Jordan Coughlan
19: Jordi Murphy
20: Matt Healy
21: Cathal Marsh
22: Andrew Boyle

Dave Kearney seen as surplus to requirements for the full team 1/4 final so I think then that McFadden will be on the bench leaving Darcy to start or else maybe Eoin O'Malley is on the bench with McFadden starting and Darcy travelling as cover.

I think the former.

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 05 Apr 2012, 1:09 pm

My guess is

Healy-Strauss-Ross
Thorn-Cullen
McL-Heaslip-SOB
Reddan-Sexton
Darcy-BOD
Fitz-Kearney-Nacewa

Cronin-Hagan-VDM-Toner-Jenno-Boss-Madigan-McFadden

by wales606 Thu 05 Apr 2012, 1:26 pm

Blues likely

Gethin - Tyrell - Andrews
Davies - Downs
Paterson - Navidi - Rush
Williams - Parks
Hewitt - Laulaula
James - Halfpenny - Cuthbert

Breeze - Yapp - Trevett - Cook - Williams - Rees - Sweeney - Evans

by red_stag Thu 05 Apr 2012, 1:28 pm

Not the worst team in world rugby.

They have a good backline, a decent front frow and a #10 who can kick goals.

Im not sure it will be the 40 point drubbing we thought.

by Rory_Gallagher Thu 05 Apr 2012, 1:28 pm

The Blues back three is pretty dangerous to be honest.

by wales606 Thu 05 Apr 2012, 1:29 pm

red_stag wrote:Not the worst team in world rugby.

They have a good backline, a decent front frow and a #10 who can kick goals.

Im not sure it will be the 40 point drubbing we thought.

Parks place kicking has been abysmal recently.

Halfpenny will be taking the place kicks.

Decent front row??? - Ummmmm no

by wales606 Thu 05 Apr 2012, 1:30 pm

Rory_Gallagher wrote:The Blues back three is pretty dangerous to be honest.

Not when they have no structure to their game

Good players - badly coached

by Morgannwg Thu 05 Apr 2012, 1:32 pm

Gethin - Tyrell - Andrews
Davies - Downs
Paterson - Navidi - Rush
Williams - Parks
Hewitt - Laulaula
James - Halfpenny - Cuthbert

Bench is awful. The bolded players are the ones Leinster need to halt. Do that and you win no problem with potential to pile on the points in the last 20 minutes. There is only so much those guys can do, they certainly won't be helepd out by the coaches or non-bolded players.

by Smirnoffpriest Thu 05 Apr 2012, 3:53 pm

Morgannwg wrote:Gethin - Tyrell - Andrews
Davies - Downs
Paterson - Navidi - Rush
Williams - Parks
Hewitt - Laulaula
James - Halfpenny - Cuthbert

Bench is awful. The bolded players are the ones Leinster need to halt. Do that and you win no problem with potential to pile on the points in the last 20 minutes. There is only so much those guys can do, they certainly won't be helepd out by the coaches or non-bolded players.

I thought Blair would play at FB and Halfpenny on the wing for James/Cuthbert (depending on form in training).

They have a decent side, the problem is the lack of confidence and flair to their play and the fact that they have an abysmal defensive system and too many average players in key positions (Park, Hewitt, James, Tyrell) that is the reason they've been doing so poorly, and also besides in the wing positions and backrow forwards they don't have any quality youngsters pushing the regular starters.

by Jenifer McLadyboy Thu 05 Apr 2012, 4:17 pm

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:
Dave Kearney seen as surplus to requirements for the full team 1/4 final so I think then that McFadden will be on the bench leaving Darcy to start or else maybe Eoin O'Malley is on the bench with McFadden starting and Darcy travelling as cover.

I think the former.

O'Malley has a calf problem. I think the squad you named is right. Just a matter of which 2 of Toner, Thorn and Cullen start, and which 2 of Jennings, McLaughlin & SOB.

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