Leinster V Cardiff Blues Lansdowne rd

First topic message reminder :

Surprised there's no thread already. Leinster massive favourites at home. Cardiff Blues coming in under the radar.

Could there be an upset?

This time 6 years ago an unfancied Leinster travelled to the home of European Rugby. To a team that would have just won 3 in a row but for the famous Rob Howley try in 04. (They won in 03 and 05 and lost in the dying minutes of the 04 final)

Leinster played the most incredible game against them and took Toulouse out of it. (Sadly blew it on Black Sunday v Munster in the semi, and then lost the Celtic league to a late drop goal by David Humphries in Wales on the last day of the league)

Could Cardiff Blues pull a similar stroke? Will Jamie Roberts play? Is Sam Warburton really out? How fit is Gethin? Henson is defo out anyway.

Leinster have close to a full deck......... Worried about any knockout game, and worried about the low key buildup here and the fact that the Blues could put one big game together and give us a shock.

There isn't a lot of fire power left in a few Blues players tanks. Rush and Patterson will struggle, Parks has never had the bum for big games, and a potentially lethal back 3 is no good without anything inside it!

The likes of Tyrell/Breeze, Andrews, Down/Cook, Navidi, and Williams will all gain a lot from this experience though.

Just heard that White may make it. Hago is only out of the A squad as a precaution.

Smirnoffpriest wrote:

Morgannwg wrote:Gethin - Tyrell - Andrews
Davies - Downs
Paterson - Navidi - Rush
Williams - Parks
Hewitt - Laulaula
James - Halfpenny - Cuthbert

Bench is awful. The bolded players are the ones Leinster need to halt. Do that and you win no problem with potential to pile on the points in the last 20 minutes. There is only so much those guys can do, they certainly won't be helepd out by the coaches or non-bolded players.

I thought Blair would play at FB and Halfpenny on the wing for James/Cuthbert (depending on form in training).

They have a decent side, the problem is the lack of confidence and flair to their play and the fact that they have an abysmal defensive system and too many average players in key positions (Park, Hewitt, James, Tyrell) that is the reason they've been doing so poorly, and also besides in the wing positions and backrow forwards they don't have any quality youngsters pushing the regular starters.

Blair wont start - T.James is our record try scorer and Halfpenny is our best FB.

Shock of the decade if Blues somehow pull it off. Warbs out, Roberts out, playing arguably the worst rugby of the Rabo. Can't see any hope for once. Could well be another fifty-point hammering on the horizon.

This will be one way traffic. I think it could get very messy. Maybe 50-60 points if Leinster want to. The Blues are in dire form and are missing key players. Leinster live for the HC and the Irish boys will want revenge for the last 2 6 nations and WC defeats. The Blues made work of a pretty straight forward group and are now well out of their depth.
Remember the battering the star studded ospreys took in Munster. This will be worse!

I am secretly enjoying that noone is giving the blues an absolute hope in hell...

I hope the Leinster squad feel the same way, it might be a tighter affair than most think!

thebluesmancometh wrote:I am secretly enjoying that noone is giving the blues an absolute hope in hell...

I hope the Leinster squad feel the same way, it might be a tighter affair than most think!

I would rather we actually won, or got thrashed by 50pts to get rid of B&B - at the moment, I know which one is more likely.

606,

I feel the same. I want Blues to win obviously, but that gives B and B a great chance of staying. If they do win I think it will be purely down to the players rather than the tactics of the B and B. 40pt hammering would be awful but if it got rid of B and B then fantastic. Still, would love the biggest upset in recent times in the 1/4's.

Knowsit17 wrote:Shock of the decade if Blues somehow pull it off. Warbs out, Roberts out, playing arguably the worst rugby of the Rabo. Can't see any hope for once. Could well be another fifty-point hammering on the horizon.

Team morale no doubt must be rock bottom too.

wales606 wrote:

thebluesmancometh wrote:I am secretly enjoying that noone is giving the blues an absolute hope in hell...

I hope the Leinster squad feel the same way, it might be a tighter affair than most think!

I would rather we actually won, or got thrashed by 50pts to get rid of B&B - at the moment, I know which one is more likely.

Simply getting rid of B&B is not the answer and we all know it.
Both were already part of the group, but were thrown in at the deep end when Dai Young decided enough was enough. Have we replaced Dan Baugh yet by the way?
The answer is to detached the snake's head from the body. I hope this will happen very soon.

On the bright side you could say the Blues are under absolutely no pressure for this one. Some of the team are playing the biggest game of their careers and are not yet experienced enough to distinguish between this and other opportunities they have taken or missed out on. Certainly some sides have come in severely under the radar and capitalized. It's Leinster's to lose and therefore there's a chance they'll bottle it.

Can't see it happening though.

Knowsit17 wrote:On the bright side you could say the Blues are under absolutely no pressure for this one. Some of the team are playing the biggest game of their careers and are not yet experienced enough to distinguish between this and other opportunities they have taken or missed out on. Certainly some sides have come in severely under the radar and capitalized. It's Leinster's to lose and therefore there's a chance they'll bottle it.

Can't see it happening though.

I don't care about the result of a rugby match.
I'm more concerned about the future of Cardiff rugby which is still hanging in the balance as far as I know.

Hard to disagree Dave, although I think Cardiff rugby is alive and well, it's the Blues who are on the brink!!!

You are very right about B&B, they aren't tghe immediate problem at present, they are a product of those above. I don't dislike the pieman, he's put a lot into the club, but I think he's been taking too much credit for what was inherited initially at the inception of the regions.

His time has come, and fresh blood is needed, someone or some group with vision, adaptability and most importantly no previous prejudice of the regional set up/WRU.

I am not asking for foreign investors, money is not the issue, it's how the money that is there is used!

I would happily take a skeleton squad of fringe and academy players if we were to move back to the CAP, get back to our routs!

I think the Valley plan could have a big impact on the Blues, I hope it goes ahead!

Blues TEAM

15. Leigh Halfpenny 14. Alex Cuthbert 13. Casey Laulala 12. Dafydd Hewitt 11. Tom James 10. Dan Parks 9. Lloyd Williams

8. Xavier Rush(c) 7. Martyn Williams 6. Michael Paterson 5. James Down 4. Bradley Davies 3. Scott Andrews 2. Marc Breeze 1.Gethin Jenkins

16. Kristian Dacey 17. John Yapp 18. Sam Hobbs 19. Macauley Cook 20. Maama Molitika 21. Richie Rees 22. Ceri Sweeney 23. Gavin Evans

Not available for selection:
Ryan Tyrrel - ankle
Jamie Roberts – knee
Sam Warburton- shoulder
T Rhys Thomas- neck
Paul Tito- head
Richard Mustoe- hip
Fau Filise- shoulder
Andries Pretorius
Deiniol Jones- shoulder

M.Williams has recovered in time

But Tyrell is injured (so down to the real bare bones at Hooker - I would rather Dacey was given a shot)

LEINSTER:

15: Rob Kearney
14: Isa Nacewa
13: Brian O'Driscoll
12: Gordon D'Arcy
11: Luke Fitzgerald
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Eoin Reddan

1: Cian Healy
2: Richardt Strauss
3: Mike Ross
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Brad Thorn
6: Kevin McLaughlin
7: Sean O'Brien
8: Jamie Heaslip

REPLACEMENTS:

16: Sean Cronin
17: Heinke van der Merwe
18: Nathan White
19: Devin Toner
20: Shane Jennings
21: Isaac Boss
22: Ian Madigan
23: Fergus McFadden

nice to see martyn back from injury and my prediction of a dan parks drop goal winner is looking more than likely with him starting at 10!

God dammit! Can we not leave Darcy go?!

*Sulk*

Great team other than that.
Glad to see SOB is selected at 7.............*steps on landmine*

Why the hell have they picked Martyn Williams? It's worse than I thought it would be.

Don't worry Pete, I got your back I'm glad to see him starting at 7 too!

Hoo-rah!

I think McL has been playing really well too so deserves to be in there. He used to be a tackler and lineout option but has evolved subtly in most faccets of play

Slightly disappointed that Toner isn't starting. Himself and Jennings will mix things up coming off the bench though.

In fact, pretty much every player on the bench will make a positive impact on arrival. Excitement, she wrote...

agree re: toner but can see why thorn is starting

thebluesmancometh wrote:Hard to disagree Dave, although I think Cardiff rugby is alive and well, it's the Blues who are on the brink!!!

You are very right about B&B, they aren't tghe immediate problem at present, they are a product of those above. I don't dislike the pieman, he's put a lot into the club, but I think he's been taking too much credit for what was inherited initially at the inception of the regions.

His time has come, and fresh blood is needed, someone or some group with vision, adaptability and most importantly no previous prejudice of the regional set up/WRU.

I am not asking for foreign investors, money is not the issue, it's how the money that is there is used!

I would happily take a skeleton squad of fringe and academy players if we were to move back to the CAP, get back to our routs!

I think the Valley plan could have a big impact on the Blues, I hope it goes ahead!

Agreed.

Anyone any opinions on where each side are strong or weak?

Having a kicking 10 is great for the blues and all but he will be kicking to a very strong back 3 and in particular a 15 who can kick with interest and claim the high ball like no one else.

I'd say the Blues will have to come out of the traps early or else they could get bogged down in a game and have to deal with the far superior Leinster bench come 55mins.

Leinster I feel should aim to keep the ball in hand as much as possible and work Cardiff, not necessarily going wide all the time but holding possession and letting their better work at the breakdown help them keep ball. It will also tire this Cardiff team a lot too.

It's not too bad a side for the Blues. I thought it would be worse. But if it comes down to front row replacements, they'll struggle. I still think Leinster will be comfortable though.

Evena as a staunch Ebbw Vale and converted Dragons fan I would still like to see the Blues win but I just cant se it.

If they get within 20 points of Leinster I will be very surprised.

Something to think about for the blues....the Munster a team just beat leinster in the B&I cup semi. They were seen as a bunch of no hopers considering they were playing against a leinster team containing a number of players who some said should be starting for Ireland in the 6ns

I expected Leinster A to win that one. Would be better for the Keys I reckon if they can pull off a win tomorrow. Leinster having seen their A team just lose might be a bit more up for their quarter final now though.

Might make them nervous as well..also they haven't had a particularly hard pool so I think Cardiff will be a lot more competitive than people expect

DOD wrote:Something to think about for the blues....the Munster a team just beat leinster in the B&I cup semi. They were seen as a bunch of no hopers considering they were playing against a leinster team containing a number of players who some said should be starting for Ireland in the 6ns

I'd love to know who those players are?

Cardiff Blues should do okay in this match. Leinster haven't been on form and are vulnerable with Heaslip off colour, O'Brien still carrying an injury, Cullen and O'Driscoll rusty, and Ross targetable in the front row.

Perfect time for the Blues to prove the Welsh can also win in the Heineken Cup after their mastery of the Six Nations last month.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

DOD wrote:Something to think about for the blues....the Munster a team just beat leinster in the B&I cup semi. They were seen as a bunch of no hopers considering they were playing against a leinster team containing a number of players who some said should be starting for Ireland in the 6ns

I'd love to know who those players are?

I love fishing!!!

Kearney Ruddock and some mentioned Ryan

Ruddock is having a very disappointing season...but ryan is looking a reall prospect...

DOD wrote:

I love fishing!!!

Kearney Ruddock and some mentioned Ryan

You love making stuff up too,I'd love to see you quote the people who mentioned Ruddock or Ryan especially as Ryan only came back from injury in the middle of february.

You ate saying that D Kearney was not touted for getting a start for Ireland?

It isn't like fishing for DOD is hard either, just say one thing even remotely negative about his poster boy ROG, and he will go off on one!

DOD wrote:You ate saying that D Kearney was not touted for getting a start for Ireland?

No I'm not saying that I'm saying Ruddock and Ryan were not touted for getting an Ireland start.How on earth did you get anything else from my post?

Rory_Gallagher wrote:It isn't like fishing for DOD is hard either, just say one thing even remotely negative about his poster boy ROG, and he will go off on one!

Or steady Deccie

Well you asked who these players were , Kearney was touted by many and a number mentioned both of the others as possibles (Ryan was mentioned in a paper column). Some of the more demented even mentioned Macken as a possible.

Didn't Ryan score? And just because Leinster lost, how does that make the likes of Kearney not good options for Ireland? Remind me, who started for the Munster team that lost to Aironi? Seriously, I can't remember who played

I'm finding myself slightly optimistic tonight, especially after watching the Ausie comentators slating Ireland before their WC match...

DOD wrote:Well you asked who these players were , Kearney was touted by many and a number mentioned both of the others as possibles (Ryan was mentioned in a paper column). Some of the more demented even mentioned Macken as a possible.

Nah you're just making it up because it suits you,Kearney was mentioned by a few people as a possibility for the Welsh game but not many and Ruddock and Ryan were never seriously mentioned especially as Ryan was injured for most of the season.

I'd love to see quotes of the man people who touted Kearney never mind the other two I'd say you could scour the site and struggle to find more than 5 for any of them.

Lads. Did no one notice Dave Kearney on the bench for the Wales game? (Apart from uncle Dekko that is)

The other 2 were just wums and not good ones. Ruddock is having a rubbish season and Ryan has hardly played due to injury.

Both were better last year. Both played well in the HC last year.

Conor O'Shea was calling for Dom Ryan to play at 7 and Stephen Ferris at 4.

red_stag wrote:Conor O'Shea was calling for Dom Ryan to play at 7 and Stephen Ferris at 4.

Didn't hear that. (Never watch RTE for Ireland games due to Hook and McGurk) But both were rubbish calls if true.

Ryan is no more a "Natural 7" than SOB. He's an inch taller for a start. Very good player, great tackler, but if Ireland or Leinster had another Keith Gleeson or Shane Jennings, no one would be looking at Ryan for 7. He's a 6.666.

Leinster play best with O'Brien at 6 and Jennings at 7.

There is no decent Jennings or Gleeson type player though. That is why I am excited to see O'Donnell against Ulster tomorrow. He must be doing something right to get a HEC start, and pushing POM to 6 (another non "natural" 7 I guess).

Wrong again ASLS ..try again...god loves those types apparently..