Third tests : home nations

There is tendency (it seems to me) that sides in three-test series and two-nil down have a better chance to win the final game.

Whether that's because the leading side take their foot off the pedal as the series is won or take the opportunity to experiment with different players etc.
Or the losing teams get more accustomed to the conditions and just improve, or through sheer grit and determination refuse to be whitewashed or whatever...

But to get a third victory will - must - be considered as a minimum for all sides:

England : The loss of Youngs and Robshaw must be considered as devastating loss and even at sea-level, I'd guess that a first test win on tour is highly unlikely. SA by fifteen.

Ireland : The fantastic performance against the ABs last week-end must be considered squandering of a great opportunity. That was to my mind their best opportunity to get so close (on the day) but the ABs will, I think, have been shocked by the closeness of the game and will put it as first priority to (in their minds) restore the dignity of World Champions. ABs by 35.

Scotland. Not a three-match series as such but they have to beat Samoa to take any impetus into next season. Scotland should win - but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it. Scotland by 10.

Wales. As the best team in the NH against a juddering OZ, Wales will be kicking themselves for not winning last week, but I fancy them to do themselves proud this week. Wales by 12.

That's big differences. I think all the games will be much closer than that.

Portnoy wrote:There is tendency (it seems to me) that sides in three-test series and two-nil down have a better chance to win the final game.

Whether that's because the leading side take their foot off the pedal as the series is won or take the opportunity to experiment with different players etc.
Or the losing teams get more accustomed to the conditions and just improve, or through sheer grit and determination refuse to be whitewashed or whatever...

But to get a third victory will - must - be considered as a minimum for all sides:

England : The loss of Youngs and Robshaw must be considered as devastating loss and even at sea-level, I'd guess that a first test win on tour is highly unlikely. SA by fifteen.

Ireland : The fantastic performance against the ABs last week-end must be considered squandering of a great opportunity. That was to my mind their best opportunity to get so close (on the day) but the ABs will, I think, have been shocked by the closeness of the game and will put it as first priority to (in their minds) restore the dignity of World Champions. ABs by 35.

Scotland. Not a three-match series as such but they have to beat Samoa to take any impetus into next season. Scotland should win - but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it. Scotland by 10.

Wales. As the best team in the NH against a juddering OZ, Wales will be kicking themselves for not winning last week, but I fancy them to do themselves proud this week. Wales by 12.

Why do you doubt it, Portnoy? An perhaps more importantly, should we care?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Portnoy wrote:Scotland. Not a three-match series as such but they have to beat Samoa to take any impetus into next season. Scotland should win - but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it. Scotland by 10.

Why do you doubt it, Portnoy? An perhaps more importantly, should we care?

The lack of TV coverage does indeed indicate no-one cares

As, of course nobody should care.

But for the record, could you explain to me why

but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it.

is unfounded?

Especially as

9(9) SAMSAMOA 77.64
10(11) SCOSCOTLAND 76.56

away has to be attended to.


Looks like Meyer is taking an experimental detour for SA's third game:
http://www.espnscrum.com/england-tour-2012/rugby/story/165948.html

Portnoy wrote:As, of course nobody should care.

But for the record, could you explain to me why

but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it.

is unfounded?

Especially as

9(9) SAMSAMOA 77.64
10(11) SCOSCOTLAND 76.56

away has to be attended to.


Looks like Meyer is taking an experimental detour for SA's third game:
http://www.espnscrum.com/england-tour-2012/rugby/story/165948.html

I'm a bit lost - is the suggestion that teams this lowly ranked are simply incapable of style andd panache, or that teams this closely matched in the rankings are similarly incapable? Not sure that your suggetion is unfounded until I've established your reasoning

Samoa are capable of anything and this would be a very significant win for Scotland IMO should they manage it:thumbsup:

Tries As. In the plural. Preferably four or more.

LondonTiger wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Portnoy wrote:Scotland. Not a three-match series as such but they have to beat Samoa to take any impetus into next season. Scotland should win - but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it. Scotland by 10.

Why do you doubt it, Portnoy? An perhaps more importantly, should we care?

The lack of TV coverage does indeed indicate no-one cares

Or that Samoan TV isn't set up for live sports broadcasting.

RubyGuby wrote:Samoa are capable of anything

Ruby, very true, am not really sure what to expect from them - they are clearly missing some big names (Tuilagi, EF-S, G Pisi, etc.), but have others playing with good experience, they are just back off a successful IRB Pacific Nations Cup series, and should be riding on a high. The chance for a NH scalp on home territory will be ample motivation too, I suspect

Portnoy wrote:As, of course nobody should care.

But for the record, could you explain to me why

but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it.

is unfounded?

Especially as

9(9) SAMSAMOA 77.64
10(11) SCOSCOTLAND 76.56

away has to be attended to.


Looks like Meyer is taking an experimental detour for SA's third game:
http://www.espnscrum.com/england-tour-2012/rugby/story/165948.html

What I love about you Portnoy............ is your incredible transparency and even more lack of knowledge and awareness

"Scotland. Not a three-match series as such but they have to beat Samoa to take any impetus into next season. Scotland should win - but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it. Scotland by 10."

and then you add the above that Samoa are above us in the rankings and are playing at home................ and yet you say we should win by 10 but with no doubt lack of style and panache

Bitterness and Jealousy............. better take some pills

Predicted temperatures of about 90F and 80% humidity on match day will make things tough for Scotland.

Portnoy wrote:Tries As. In the plural. Preferably four or more.

So four or more tries = style and panache? If you are only as good as your last game then Scotland, by your own definition, are stylish. They notched up 4 against Fiji last week.

Agreed on the temperature. Its going to be sapping. Will no doubt have to make full and smart use of the bench in order to compete for the full 80.

Portnoy wrote:Tries As. In the plural. Preferably four or more.

Right you are, we'll give it our best. Does that apply to all teams? Unless you score 4 or more tries, they are not playing with "style and panache"?

Bitterness and jealousy flyhalf?

Of what?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Portnoy wrote:Tries As. In the plural. Preferably four or more.

Right you are, we'll give it our best. Does that apply to all teams? Unless you score 4 or more tries, they are not playing with "style and panache"?

Just once in a while, As, just once in a while.

How many tries have tries in total have Scotland scored in the past five years?

And how many times have they scored more than two?

Portnoy wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Portnoy wrote:Tries As. In the plural. Preferably four or more.

Right you are, we'll give it our best. Does that apply to all teams? Unless you score 4 or more tries, they are not playing with "style and panache"?

Just once in a while, As, just once in a while.

How many tries have tries in total have Scotland scored in the past five years?

And how many times have they scored more than two?

Ah right, got you, this is a comment based on history

Or the present if you like As.

Or the future if you like.

What do expect from the hose-pipe ban on Scottish tries?

So many comments on this article worthy of

Flyhalf and ASBO have mentioned the worst offenders but the OP seems to think that a team lower in the world rankings will overcome a team higher than them in the world rankings in their own backyard by more than 10 points and sees scoring less than 4 tries against them as a failure.

Samoa are a tough team to play anywhere. They have big powerful runners and are very physical. Combine that with heat of 35 degrees C or more I would be happy with the win under any circumstances.

Agreed Radge, I'd be happy with any win at this point in time. Also as it seems impossible to watch this game (unless you actually attend the game) so as far as I'm concerned they can play the most boring brand of rugby going as long as it gets the win.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:So many comments on this article worthy of

Flyhalf and ASBO have mentioned the worst offenders but the OP seems to think that a team lower in the world rankings will overcome a team higher than them in the world rankings in their own backyard by more than 10 points and sees scoring less than 4 tries against them as a failure.

Samoa are a tough team to play anywhere. They have big powerful runners and are very physical. Combine that with heat of 35 degrees C or more I would be happy with the win under any circumstances.

The theme of the OP was that third tests in a lost series are improve likeliness to be won by the losing team.

Certainly it wasn't Portnoy v Scotland.

I didn't say it was "Portnoy vs. Scotland", I'm just confused as to how, after taking everyting into account can you come to the conclusion that a team (Scotland) ranked below another team in the IRB world rankings (Samoa) can play away from home in an enviroment as alien as any I can think of to Scottish people and expect them to win by 10 points and score more than 4 tries.

When we last played Samoa it was utterly freezing at Pittodrie (Aberdeen) and it had been snowing for days before, snow was 6" thick on the ground and we won the game by the skin of our teeth. We had home advantage and the weather was on our side. We won't have either of those advantages at the weekend. Hence I can see Scotland really struggling with this one.

Hence, not sure where you came to your conclusions in the OP.

Hence, I used the word hence a lot.

Only because I was responding to subsequent posts Radge. But if you can help me in discerning the relevance of the assertion

but the OP seems to think that a team lower in the world rankings will overcome a team higher than them in the world rankings in their own backyard by more than 10 points and sees scoring less than 4 tries against them as a failure. Headscratch

In what way is your comment relevant or correct relating to the original post?

It's never over 35 degs on the Pacific Is... sea breezes usually keep it just under 30. Still, it feels hot in the sun (even in 'mid-winter'); pleasant in the shade.

Linebreaker wrote:It's never over 35 degs on the Pacific Is... sea breezes usually keep it just under 30. Still, it feels hot in the sun (even in 'mid-winter'); pleasant in the shade.

In that case it will be advisable for the Scots to play wearing sombrero's

They're not playing in Los Cabos, biltong.

Still, it might help, it's not like they can run around with umbrellas.

Water bottles filled with margherita - now we're talking!

Richie Gray "MUST learn to drink Margherita's after the game, not before the game."

Portnoy wrote:There is tendency (it seems to me) that sides in three-test series and two-nil down have a better chance to win the final game.

Whether that's because the leading side take their foot off the pedal as the series is won or take the opportunity to experiment with different players etc.
Or the losing teams get more accustomed to the conditions and just improve, or through sheer grit and determination refuse to be whitewashed or whatever...

But to get a third victory will - must - be considered as a minimum for all sides:

England : The loss of Youngs and Robshaw must be considered as devastating loss and even at sea-level, I'd guess that a first test win on tour is highly unlikely. SA by fifteen.

Ireland : The fantastic performance against the ABs last week-end must be considered squandering of a great opportunity. That was to my mind their best opportunity to get so close (on the day) but the ABs will, I think, have been shocked by the closeness of the game and will put it as first priority to (in their minds) restore the dignity of World Champions. ABs by 35.

Scotland. Not a three-match series as such but they have to beat Samoa to take any impetus into next season. Scotland should win - but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it. Scotland by 10.

Wales. As the best team in the NH against a juddering OZ, Wales will be kicking themselves for not winning last week, but I fancy them to do themselves proud this week. Wales by 12.

You. Are. Having. A. Laugh.

Portnoy wrote:Bitterness and jealousy flyhalf?

Of what?

Life in general?
Scotland winning against SH opposition yet again, thats HOME OR AWAY?................ and England exactly what have they achieved this summer series?

You tell me Portnoy?............ or are you just a guy that likes to throw away comments with the intent of winding people up

1. We (Scotland) are going to play a side that are ranked above us, they are on a winning streak, at their home ground, in soaring temperatures....... so where's your rationale of 10 pts

2. Panache / Style............. we have just scored 4 TRIES, and have selected Hogg, NDL, Scott, Visser, Laidlaw, Cussiter ALL players who are creative and attack minded. So thats surely some intent shown by AR

So tell me your rationale on your comments on Scotland

Scotland can beat anyone on their day, as long as its in the driving rain and mud at Murrayfield, or away from Murrayfield in the driving rain and mud, against a second XV.

Oz XXII vs. Scotland :

15 FB Luke Morahan
14 W Joe Tomane
13 C Anthony Faingaa
12 C Mike Harris
11 W Digby Ioane
10 FH Berrick Barnes
9 SH Will Genia
1 P James Slipper
2 H Stephen Moore
3 P Dan Palmer
4 L Sitaleki Timani
5 L Nathan Sharpe
6 F Dave Dennis
7 F David Pocock (c)
8 N8 Scott Higginbotham
16 Saia Faingaa
17 P Ben Alexander
18 L Rob Simmons
19 F Michael Hooper
20 Nick Phipps
21 Pat McCabe
22 Adam Ashley-Cooper

Oz XXII vs. Wales (1st Test) :

15 FB Adam Ashley-Cooper
14 W Cooper Vuna
13 C Rob Horne
12 C Pat McCabe
11 W Digby Ioane
10 FH Berrick Barnes
9 SH Will Genia
1 P Benn Robinson
2 H Tatafu Polota-Nau
3 P Sekope Kepu
4 L Rob Simmons
5 L Nathan Sharpe
6 F Scott Higginbotham
7 F David Pocock (c)
8 N8 Wycliff Palu
16 H Stephen Moore
17 P Ben Alexander
18 L Dave Dennis
19 N8 Michael Hooper
20 Nic White
21 C Anthony Faingaa
22 Mike Harris

Oz XXII vs. Wales (2nd Test) :

15 FB Adam Ashley-Cooper
14 W Cooper Vuna
13 C Rob Horne
12 C Pat McCabe
11 W Digby Ioane
10 FH Berrick Barnes
9 SH Will Genia
1 P Benn Robinson
2 H Tatafu Polota-Nau
3 P Sekope Kepu
4 L Rob Simmons
5 L Nathan Sharpe
6 F Scott Higginbotham
7 F David Pocock (c)
8 N8 Wycliff Palu
16 H Stephen Moore
17 P Ben Alexander
18 N8 Dave Dennis
19 L Michael Hooper
20 Nic White
21 W Anthony Faingaa
22 FH Mike Harris

It seems the important players : Barnes, Genia, Pockock, Higginbotham, Sharpe, Ioane all played in these games. In truth on inspection it seems that Australia had a lot of talent out in all 3 test matches.

I also recall Scotland having 3 new caps in the match too : Scott, Brown, Grant and international newcomers like Laidlaw and Hogg.

Perhaps if Wales had toughened up a bit up front or not aimlessly kicked away possesion they would have won at least one of the 2 test matches they have lost against Australia.

It really grinds my gears to have people say Scotland faced a 2nd string Australia side. The only really notable absentee from the Scotland game that played against Wales is Adam Ashley-Cooper.

Furthermore you don't hear the Ozzies saying "If it had been sunny we would have won" do you? That just shows how silly attributing the weather to Scotlands win really is.

Equo Troiano wrote:Scotland can beat anyone on their day, as long as its in the driving rain and mud at Murrayfield, or away from Murrayfield in the driving rain and mud, against a second XV.

Yawn

If only it had been sunny we would have won!

Just kidding...
Fair play Scotland. We needed that kick up the backside.

Linebreaker wrote:If only it had been sunny we would have won!

Just kidding...
Fair play Scotland. We needed that kick up the backside.

Good one Liney

Linebreaker wrote:If only it had been sunny we would have won!

Just kidding...
Fair play Scotland. We needed that kick up the backside.

That was more like mud up the backside.

Maybe Scotland should play in the 4 Nations instead of the 6N, after all, they can at least beat one of the 4N sides?

Don't know why I keep saying "we" though....

Equo Troiano wrote:Maybe Scotland should play in the 4 Nations instead of the 6N, after all, they can at least beat one of the 4N sides?

Apologies for the face palm icon but it's the best I could do without resorting to personal insults.

What a moronic thing to say though.

Whilst I think the negative comments about Scotland on this thread are unfounded, there is clearly a reason they are being made - historically, (recent history), we have struggled to score tries, put on a spectacle in general, and have coped better than our opposition in torrential conditions (but when have you heard a Scotsman complain about the sunshine as a reason for losing any other match? Be fair.) And we've finished, with one exception, toward the bottom of the pile in the 6N every year.

However, Scotland are clearly showing intent, and to those who quote Scotland as having no "style and panache" clearly have not watched Scotland very closely for the last two years, and especially not their most recent match against Fiji, where seven tries were scored in total involving more often than not sweeping moves (albeit with hundred of missed tackles). Fiji, whom you might call the closest team in style to Samoa on the planet, as well as the closest place conditions wise on the planet. With a much unchanged Scotland squad, why would you not expect a similar match?

I understand the weight of history, but you've got to balance it out a little bit.

I guess we'll never know how stylish the win / loss is , as it's not being televised.

Back on topic - good luck to all the other NH lads this weekend - we really could do with taking some ranking points and results back to the U.K.: I know the home nations can do it! I'll take a home nations victory in the SH any day, no matter who the team.

But I do urge you, Portnoy, to actually watch some Scotland matches as a genuine neutral or even supporter before passing such generalised comment. I don't do it for your team.

By the way - and sorry for continuing off topic - but if you watched Scotland for the past 10 years with the right lenses, they are actually the most amusing and entertaining team to watch best watched with a couple of mates that know how to make good jokes , don't take themselves or things too seriously , and plenty of beer for drinking games during the match. Job done.

That's what I've done until now ... those games don't seem to even work anymore, which is a good sign ..!

KickAndChase wrote:But I do urge you, Portnoy, to actually watch some Scotland matches as a genuine neutral or even supporter before passing such generalised comment. I don't do it for your team.

Now don't be silly, K&C, whatever will you come out with next?!

Just wait for the claim that he has and they sucked

KickAndChase wrote:But I do urge you, Portnoy, to actually watch some Scotland matches as a genuine neutral or even supporter before passing such generalised comment. I don't do it for your team.

I do watch as many Scottish games as I can - always as a neutral except when they are playing England. The excessive defensiveness of some Scottish posters have entirely twisted the OP into a diatribe. Essentially I have not attacked Scotland in any way. Indeed they are only implicitly involved in the discussion as they are not playing on a three-match tour of a SH nation.

Portnoy wrote:There is tendency (it seems to me) that sides in three-test series and two-nil down have a better chance to win the final game.

Whether that's because the leading side take their foot off the pedal as the series is won or take the opportunity to experiment with different players etc.
Or the losing teams get more accustomed to the conditions and just improve, or through sheer grit and determination refuse to be whitewashed or whatever...

But to get a third victory will - must - be considered as a minimum for all sides:

England : The loss of Youngs and Robshaw must be considered as devastating loss and even at sea-level, I'd guess that a first test win on tour is highly unlikely. SA by fifteen.

Ireland : The fantastic performance against the ABs last week-end must be considered squandering of a great opportunity. That was to my mind their best opportunity to get so close (on the day) but the ABs will, I think, have been shocked by the closeness of the game and will put it as first priority to (in their minds) restore the dignity of World Champions. ABs by 35.

Scotland. Not a three-match series as such but they have to beat Samoa to take any impetus into next season. Scotland should win - but will there be any style and panache? I doubt it. even if it might still lack the cutting edge style they've been going for for the past few years. But as above, that won't matter to them. Scotland by 10.

Wales. As the best team in the NH against a juddering OZ, Wales will be kicking themselves for not winning last week, but I fancy them to do themselves proud this week. Wales by 12.

Fixed it for you mate - same thing said, a much more 'neutral' comment seeing as you do watch our matches as often as possible, and this one wouldn't get any Scots trying to kiss you (Glasgie style).

Not saying you shouldn't say the former , but cause and effect .. cause and effect ...

Please allow be to reintroduce the term 'style and panache' - as it's been an age and a day since I last saw any from them. Certainly more than ten years.

Equo Troiano wrote:Scotland can beat anyone on their day, as long as its in the driving rain and mud at Murrayfield, or away from Murrayfield in the driving rain and mud, against a second XV.

Best to stay shut away in the East Midlands............ Oh by the way, there's a bit of footy on just for you