Lions selections based on 6N results only

Seeing as the 6N is generally considered as the main interview for the Lions tour, I thought I'd share how the results of the 6N may well influence the picks tomorrow morning. Firstly, by looking at the 2009 6N results.

Ireland	Grandslam (5 wins against every team)	14 players selected in 37 man squad
England	2nd (3 wins against Italy, Scotland and France)	8 players selected in 37 man squad
Wales	4th (3 wins against Scotland, England and Italy)	13 players selected in 37 man squad
Scotland	5th (1 win against Italy)	2 players selected in 37 man squad

My first impressions are...

Ireland won every game and therefore have the most players selected.

Wales came 4th but have 5 more players than England.

Wales beat two home nations sides, England beat one and Scotland beat none.

So there is actually quite an obvious connection. Although England came 4th, they didn't beat two home nations sides like Wales did. As the Lions is all about the home nations, its possible that selectors would have considered the home nations matches as more relevant. Thus there decision to include a few more Welsh players might have simply come down to, Wales beat England, won 3 games and therefore deserve a few more players in the 37 man squad. Likewise, Scotland only one one game against Italy and have close to no one representing them in the 37 man squad.

Results 2013 6N

Wales	1st (4 wins against England, Scotland, France and Italy)	2 wins against Hone nations sides
England	2nd (4 wins against Scotland, France, Italy and Ireland)	2 wins against home nations sides
Scotland	3rd (2 wins against Itlay and Ireland)	1 win against a home nations side
Ireland	5th (1 win against Wales, a draw against France)	1 win against a home nations side

First impressions are...

Wales won the championship, beating 2 home nations sides.

England came second, beating 2 home nations sides.

Scotland came 3rd and Ireland came 5th, both beating a home nations side.

My immediate reaction is, Wales and England should therefore have the most players representing the Lions tour. However, both Scotland and Ireland beat a home nations side too. It is therefore quite likely, that the high numbers of representation seen in 2009 by Ireland, will be considerably lower in 2013. It is likely that Wales will retain their high numbers of representation, as they had in 2009. It is likely England will have similar or slightly improved representation. It is likely Scotland will have improved numbers of representation.

I used to following guide from the above observations to calculate the number of players representing each nation in the 2013 lions squad...

Wins = 2 players added for each game a team won

Non Home Nations Win = 1 player added for each game won

Home Nations Win = 1-3 extra players added for each game won

Wales - 15 (Wins = 8, NHNW = 2, HNW = 5)
England - 13 (Wins = 8, NHNW = 2, HNW = 3)
Scotland - 7 (Wins = 4, NHNW = 1, HNW = 2)
Ireland - 5.5 (Wins = 3, NHNW = .5, HNW = 2)

These may well be 1 or two players off, but all in all, I think this will be the sort of squad we'll be looking at tomorrow morning. I have noticed some people posting squads with 12 irish players, or only 1 or 2 Scottish players. It is possible that these assumptions are being made from the 2009 Lions squad, which as I have shown, was quite possibly based on the 6N results. Therefore, I find it more likely that Scotland and Ireland will have close to even representation whilst Wales and England provide the majority of players.

Or I could be talking complete Love sacks!

Yeah, tomorrow will tell the truth and the shhit will hit the fan then I assume

Meanwhile though, 6N is a five games per team brief encounter in dirty February...Pro12/AP/HC/Amlin is a seasonal stretch of 30 games or so. Considering such seasons are used to determine International players in the first place, I don't think they'll be disregarded when Lions lists are being debated between Gatland and his mates.

True SecretFly, I was just interested by how the 6N results influenced the last tour, or at least appeared to. Can't wait to see the squad tomorrow, really hope there's a few players in there that will be a big surprise.

People with double-barrelled names have been grossly underrepresented on Lions tours.Probably down to Mike Campell-Lamerton being the most pants player ever to lead the side!

Tomorrow it will be

Wales 15 Players
Ireland 8
England 8
Scotland 6

I think that's fair as its the only chance players from Wales and Ireland will ever get to win in Australia,

Wales last won in 1987
Ireland last won in 1979

At least the Scots have some good experience there.

Shouldn't we base the squad on the Heineken cup quarter finals and beyond?

How many elegible players play for Toulon?

imo Ireland as a national team is now less than the sum of it's parts and that's why Irleand should have more representatives than the team's results suggest. England is more than the sum of parts and has few individual stand out players - that's why they will have fewer tourists than coming 2nd in the 6N's suggests.

Taffineastbourne wrote:People with double-barrelled names have been grossly underrepresented on Lions tours.Probably down to Mike Campell-Lamerton being the most pants player ever to lead the side!

Bad news for james Simpson-Daniel and Jordan Turner-Hall's prospects as bolters then...