The Australian Open Draw

First topic message reminder :

I believe will be out just after midnight tonight.

I'm hoping as usual for Nadal and Federer to be on opposite sides. Poor Federer has had more than his fair share of bad luck drawing Nadal in the quarters. First because Nadal'r ranking had dropped and now because his has slipped a little. I would also quite like to see a Djokovic/Federer semi. It's been a while...

LuvSports! wrote:Djoko going for the four-peat. So unpredictable :P

Yep as predictable as the Niagra Falls freezing over

Born Slippy wrote:I'm not certain Rafa is going to destroy Tomic. He is, in my view, by a long way the most dangerous of the "new generation". The suggestions are that he has his head screwed on the right way round this year and he has already reached the final in Sydney. The four games he produced at the start of the second set v. Nadal three years ago were exceptional but, as an 18 year old, he couldn't maintain that standard. I think he will get at least a set off Rafa but I'll be interested to see how he gets on against DP first.

Really depends how he can start. If he can do well early on, he may win a set or even 2 as Nadal is a notorious slow starter. However, if he goes behind early, I'd bet on him being thrashed

Also Tomic won Sydney last year. And the first really good player he played in Oz, Fed (in decline at that point, number 2 or not) beat him easily enough...

JuliusHMarx wrote:I don't think saying someone is the favourite means you're in any way certain that he'll win it.

No what it often means when certain people round here talk about the "favorite" is a player that they like very much...

Dustin Brown is one of my favourite players. Does that mean that I think he will win?

LuvSports! wrote:Dustin Brown is one of my favourite players. Does that mean that I think he will win?

O come on LS that is said in a totally different context to act naive when CC says

I make Novak the favourite for the title on the grounds of his record in Melbourne and his favourable draw.

Is not quite the same thing is it   

Djoko is my favourite for the title, does that mean I like him very much?

Exactly

Luvsports. Well if you do you are using the term "favorite" in the same way that certain other 606v2 posters use the term  

Of course the other way that the term "favorite" can be used is to apply it to a player that you don't dislike as much as another player.

Everyone has their favourite(s), which is entirely separate from who they make as a favourite for a title, or even a match.
For example, no Murray fan has Murray as favourite for the AO title.

Surely no-one really needs an explanation of this, do they?

Like Kevin Anderson?
Thanks for the help HE, I understand now.   

Well, it's not entirely separate, there will always be some bias in favour of their favourite players. Usually the reason they like them is partially because they think they are capable of good play, and wanting someone to do well will always impact your logic and make you overestimate their chances unless you specifically try to avoid that. Also you are likely to have seen your fabourite players play more, and mentally focus on their successful points more and this gives you a biased view on their abilities

My favourite players are all retired - but I still think they could win the AO!

I think that any entity with the brain power beyond that of a lettuce can tell that Djokovic is the favourite and Nadal is the second favourite.

It will be interesting to see how Tomic, Raonic, Del Potro, Tsonga and Jerry the Janowicz fare.

Getting to the QF without injury would probably represent a fantastic achievement for Murray - I don't think he has the tournament fitness to get much further.

SirFredPerry made a good point about a long Djoko-Nadal match can have repercussions on Nadal. As well as the examples he gave I would like to add the 2013 Roland Garros SemiFinal. Nadal breezed past Ferrer in the final - but Nadal had difficulty adapting his knees to Wimbledon & hobbled out of the 1st round.

I am a lettuce and I resent that remark.

Lettuce pray to overcome resentment.

Since when has Djokovic been my favourite player??

Let me reiterate. For me Novak is who I feel has the best chance to win. Why? Well for those of you slow on the uptake the Serbian has ruled in Melbourne for a number of years and has almost an unparalleled record there. On top of that his draw is not exactly taxing so you see it is not too hard to see why I make him the favourite to win.

This is getting to be so funny..... all because of the word favourite....    hillarious

Favorite used to be my favorite word, but now that it is favorite, I also expect it to win the AO

Right?

I am the favourite to bow out of this thread first.

Nore Staat wrote:I am the favourite to bow out of this thread first.

Or are the least favourite to come back to this thread.

@RiskySports… Nice wordplay.

Having watched Tomic last night I take back my comments that he might get a set. Matched Potro to start with but then played a dreadful service game and never got his head back together.

Has to be said, Del Potro is pure tedium to watch against anyone not top 4. It's all very neat and clinical but not the type of thing to inspire on an early Saturday morning. Easily the worst player to watch in the top 10 in my opinion.

Tomic on his own admission plays junk tennis (a bit like Dolgopolov) so unorthodox it can look pretty entertaining and sometimes spectacular when the shots come off. However when it doesn´t and they are playing against players with infinitely more skill they cant seem to string enough good shots together to beat the big guns. Over five sets is asking a lot. Never have thought Tomic has enough in the tool box to do the job imo

Tomic plays "junk" tennis but he has the ability to play proper tennis too, when he puts his mind to it. He is more talented than his results suggest (though not as talented as he himself seems to think he is).

His main problem is his attitude, and unless he fixes that, he will never have any serious success. On a one-off, he can be pretty dangerous though. That said, agree that Rafa will likely beat him, quite comfortably I imagine.

Yeah, he has talent. If he were to sort out his mental issues, I would still have concerns about his movement but I think he'd be top 10.

The oddity with Tomic is how poor his returning game is. Ok, he is a big guy but he seems to have reasonable feel once a rally commences. Not sure why that doesn't apply on the return.

But in some respect you are echoing what I said earlier.. he is not consistent enough and I agree with you when you say he has an over inflated idea of his own talent. If he harnessed  the talent he has and channeled it with the help of a good coach (though I fear he is a little like some others I could mention and would find that difficult if nigh impossible.) he could be very useful.

Murray is reported to have said ...

"Right now I feel like I'm a long way from winning the tournament. I don't know how I'm going to feel after playing a five-set match in 40C heat.

It will be the first time I've done that since the surgery but if I can get myself through a round or two then I'll maybe start to gain confidence and my body will get used to playing matches again."


So this suggests that anything more than reaching round three would be a bonus given where Murray is in his recuperation. So I guess he is going to be dropping a significant number of points. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/25689984

NS I think that as in years before the heat can and will play a big part in this particular slam. Though Novak won it last year I clearly remember times past when his breathing trouble affected his game. So it would be interesting to see what the Aussie weather does over the next couple of weeks.

Rumour has it Gilles Simon has withdrawn after turning his ankle vs Gaquet at Kooyong. However, because its after release of OoP for 1st day it won't affect the draw as a whole, just be replaced by a LL as I understand it.

Almagro is out with a shoulder injury.

Nadal is complaining in Eurosport that the surface is faster then ever and will not provide fans with quality show.

He's definatly not representing me as a fan,  as only Nadal and Djoko fans love slow crap courts.

Nadal probably needs to remember that it's been 2 years since he played here, I'm surprised he can remember exactly how fast the courts were. If that's an unedited quote, it was a tad silly for Nadal to say as he really didn't have to comment on the courtspeed

Slow or fast [speed of the court and speed of the ball] current Federer would not make much noise in the tournament, I would take a QF spot for him, the match of the tournament would be Del Po vs Rafa in Quarters, again slow or fast the game will be 50-50.

A Full transcript of the interview with Rafa from his Spanish Blog
as always things are taken out of context.. I would not consider this interview complaining.. doubtless there will be those who do.


NTERVIEW
Rafael Nadal 11-01-14
Saturday, 11 January, 2014

Start of Transcribed Interview
Q.  What was your first thought when you heard Bernard Tomic was your first‑round opponent?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Well, good start (smiling).
No, just is not the best round I know to start a Grand Slam, playing against a player who is local and who is young, who played great in the past here, and who is playing well.  He's in the final of Sydney.
Is a tough start.  But what I thought is just I need to be ready and just practice with the great tactics every day, try to do the right things in every moment to arrive in the first round with the competitive.  That's the only way.

Q.  Do you think you'll have much crowd support?
RAFAEL NADAL:  I think the crowd here is great.  I played against him here in Australia.  I played against Lleyton here few times.
Australian crowd is one of the best.  I really have fun all the time when I was able to play on this fabulous court, Rod Laver Arena.  I think they understand about tennis.  They respect always the opponent.  I not worried about that.  I'm sure the crowd will be great.

Q.  What is your memory of playing Bernard Tomic last time you played him at the Australian Open?
RAFAEL NADAL:  I don't remember very well.  It was in three or four.  Was a tough one.  During the second or during the third he had advantage on the score.
But always a challenging player, no?  He has a big talent.  He has a good serve.  He's able to play with very good control from the baseline.  He has a very good talent on where you going to hit the ball.
He's a good player to start the tournament.  To be through in that first round is because I'm ready to compete well.  If not, I'm going to be ready to be practicing at home.  That's all.

Q.  How much a better player do you think he is now than when you played him last time?
RAFAEL NADAL:  I don't know.  The normal evolution of the young player is that they really improves every year.

Q.  Will you be watching the Sydney game?
RAFAEL NADAL:  I don't know what time is it.

Q.  How are you feeling physically?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Hopefully fine, yeah.

Q.  How are you finding the speed of the courts so far?  There was a lot of talk they might be faster than in years past.
RAFAEL NADAL:  Completely different conditions than what I remembered of this tournament.  Faster conditions that I ever played here in Australia.
Well, I really don't understand very well why they change because the last couple of years, Australian Open had amazing matching, long ones, good ones for the crowd.  I don't know why the people who decide to make the conditions that fast.
I am not sure for the show is the best thing.  But they decide and I'm just a player to try to be competitive from the beginning.  I am practicing every day as much as I can and with the right intensity, the right attitude.
I arrived one week before.  I think that I am practicing better a little bit every day.  I hope to adjust my game to these conditions.

Q.  You think the difference is very big from when you were here last two years ago?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Yes.

Q.  How do you think that affects your game?
RAFAEL NADAL:  I tell you in a couple of days (smiling).

Q.  Does that make it harder for you to win the title than in the past?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Last year I don't remember (smiling).

Q.  The last time you were here.
RAFAEL NADAL:  No, I was able to play well in fast conditions in the past.  But is true that I need to play my best to really have chances to be very competitive here against everybody because the conditions are a little bit faster than usual.
But we'll see, no?  I think during all my career I was able to play well in any condition:  fast, slow, different surfaces.  Important thing is try to be ready for the action from the beginning and be fresh mentally ‑ something that I hope I am.
I'm going to try to find the feelings, positive feelings.  If that happens, I hope to be competitive.

Q.  You've won every major except for this one twice or more.  In your mind, does that make this one any more important?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Not more important.  All the tournaments are very important when I play.  Every tournament, even if is Grand Slam or Masters 1000 or 500 or 250, I play every match with the same intensity.  It's not because I'm playing a Grand Slam I'm going to play with more focus or more intensity.  I try to be always the same, highest level possible.
Is true that is important to give me another chance here in Australia in the next couple of years starting for this one.  Win both, every Grand Slam twice, will be something really difficult.  I going to try to do it in the next couple of years, but knowing that always is a big challenge.
I was not lucky in this tournament in the past.  I think 2006 I couldn't play the tournament.  I get injury twice.  Against Murray I have to retire.  Against David couple years ago, well, I didn't retire, but I had broken ‑ I don't know how to say ‑ a little bit the muscle in the second game of the match.

Q.  A tear?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Yes.  Last year I didn't have the chance to play.  Is really the Grand Slam I have the more trouble during all my career.
Real opportunity is to play and compete well in this Grand Slam.  I have 2005, 2007, 2008.  After that, 2009, for sure.  2010 and '11, I get injury.  2012, I was able to compete at my 100% again.  I lost the final against fantastic player with a great match.
But is true that I going to try my best.  A tournament I really love so much.  I like a lot the people here in Australia.  The tournament is easy one for the players.  People are very nice with us here.

Q.  Physically do you feel as well as you have in other years coming into this tournament now?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Important thing is feel yourself well.  Physically is not a problem, I think.  Important thing is play well.  If you get injury, then is a problem.
Sometimes in the past I felt right and then I get injured in the tournament.  I feel without problems, but you never know what's going on.  Hopefully will be still healthy for the whole year.  That's the most important thing for me.

Q.  You had a good finish to 2013.  How important is the No. 1 world ranking to you?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Not much.  Something that I'm not worried.  Most important thing for me is be able to be competitive in every tournament that I going to play.
When you are getting older, thinking about the No. 1 ranking is tougher.  You have to take care a little bit more about your body, your health.  For me the main goal is try to be here for a long time, for not only one more or two more years.  So my priority is try to play as long as I can in my career.
If that makes me lose maybe some tournament to protect my health, you know, from consequence you will have less chances to be in the top position of the rankings.
Is not something that worry so much for me.  I have been in the top two positions in the rankings for a lot of my career, so is not something that is a priority today.
If that happens, like happened last year, because I played fantastic in every tournament, very happy and great.  But is something that I will not try to find.  If that happens because I am playing great, very happy.
But most important thing for me is keep happy playing tennis, enjoying the tournament, and be competitive in every tournament, especially the important ones.

Q.  Which part of South American tour was the most exciting for you?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Every place was different.  I was able to visit places that I didn't visit for a long time or never.  So was a great experience for me.  The fans there are so emotional.  It's very intense.  Was a very special moment for me there against David, against Novak, against Nalbandian, too, in his last matches.
Having a crowd that speaks my language, too, that makes the relationship closer.  I really had a lot of fun.  Was be like holidays.  I really enjoyed visiting all these kind of places, and for sure visiting Perito Moreno was one of the more spectacular things I visit.
Thank you very much.  Happy New Year, everybody.

I think Nadal-Tomic should be a enjoyable match to watch, but only in the same way that some of the matches I most enjoyed last year were Nadal-Fognini and Murray-Llodra. That is, a more "flashy" player who plays unconventional shots against a solid opponent. There doesn't necessarily have to be any drama over the result to enjoy a tennis match - and I don't expect there will be tomorrow either.

The Top 4 may get cooler might matches evenly spread between the top 4, so it is a matter of who has a tough day match and if they can handle the heat then.

Born Slippy wrote:Not sure why that doesn't apply on the return.

I recall the Evans-Tomic match and the placement of the ball played a crucial role in Evans winning.

It's odd that Rafa says "Completely different conditions than what I remembered of this tournament."

I know he missed it last year, but all the other players are saying it's pretty much the same, only a slight difference, even to 2 years ago.

I just realized we all got fooled.  We all came out of the draw ceremony thinking Nole did well, but there is a huge fly in the ointment:

http://tennis.si.com/2014/01/09/australian-open-draw-winners-and-losers/

The highest-ranked player in his section is 15th-seeded Fabio Fognini, who is hobbled with a foot injury and isn’t exactly known for his competitive instincts.

...and all that while Nole is on the longest winning streak since....ouch

Haddie-nuff wrote:A Full transcript of the interview with Rafa from his Spanish Blog
as always things are taken out of context.. I would not consider this interview complaining.. doubtless there will be those who do.


...
Q.  How are you finding the speed of the courts so far?  There was a lot of talk they might be faster than in years past.
RAFAEL NADAL:  Completely different conditions than what I remembered of this tournament.  Faster conditions that I ever played here in Australia.
Well, I really don't understand very well why they change because the last couple of years, Australian Open had amazing matching, long ones, good ones for the crowd.  I don't know why the people who decide to make the conditions that fast.
I am not sure for the show is the best thing.  But they decide and I'm just a player to try to be competitive from the beginning.  I am practicing every day as much as I can and with the right intensity, the right attitude.
I arrived one week before.  I think that I am practicing better a little bit every day.  I hope to adjust my game to these conditions.

Q.  You think the difference is very big from when you were here last two years ago?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Yes.

Q.  How do you think that affects your game?
RAFAEL NADAL:  I tell you in a couple of days (smiling).

....

I agree with Haddie-Nuff - it is barely noticeable in the context of the overall interview and is blown out of all proportion.  But that's the media --> will we ever learn.  Raffa has the right to have an opinion and this is all extremely mild.  Malky Mackay (former Cardiff manager) made a minor barely noticeable comment about Solskjaer in an overall positive view of his appointment --> and then the BBC themselves generate a headline to put as negative a gloss on the matter as possible.

SB, that is a very worrying point.

In Socal's absence, I must therefore cry "Fogniniiiiiiii!".

Nore Staat wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:A Full transcript of the interview with Rafa from his Spanish Blog
as always things are taken out of context.. I would not consider this interview complaining.. doubtless there will be those who do.


...
Q.  How are you finding the speed of the courts so far?  There was a lot of talk they might be faster than in years past.
RAFAEL NADAL:  Completely different conditions than what I remembered of this tournament.  Faster conditions that I ever played here in Australia.
Well, I really don't understand very well why they change because the last couple of years, Australian Open had amazing matching, long ones, good ones for the crowd.  I don't know why the people who decide to make the conditions that fast.
I am not sure for the show is the best thing.  But they decide and I'm just a player to try to be competitive from the beginning.  I am practicing every day as much as I can and with the right intensity, the right attitude.
I arrived one week before.  I think that I am practicing better a little bit every day.  I hope to adjust my game to these conditions.

Q.  You think the difference is very big from when you were here last two years ago?
RAFAEL NADAL:  Yes.

Q.  How do you think that affects your game?
RAFAEL NADAL:  I tell you in a couple of days (smiling).

....

I agree with Haddie-Nuff - it is barely noticeable in the context of the overall interview and is blown out of all proportion.  But that's the media --> will we ever learn.  Raffa has the right to have an opinion and this is all extremely mild.  Malky Mackay (former Cardiff manager) made a minor barely noticeable comment about Solskjaer in an overall positive view of his appointment --> and then the BBC themselves generate a headline to put as negative a gloss on the matter as possible.

The media want their story. I've just seen this

Australian Open - Nadal fumes at changed Australian Open courts
Spain's Rafa Nadal is furious at the new courts installed at the Australian Open.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/news/australian-open-nadal-fumes-changed-australian-open-courts-200913548--ten.html

Maybe Rafa just doesn't know how to handle the press? Perhaps he should take a lesson from Novak?

https://www.606v2.com/t50953-djokovic-desperate-to-sweeten-up-the-press

There can be a big difference between the projected draw and the actual draw.  Last Wimbledon, Andy's draw looked horrible on paper, but ended up quite nice in the end.  This time, Rafa was projected to have Delpo - Andy - Novak in QF/SF/F, but instead he ends up having three SHBHs in his path - Grigor - Roger - Stan.  Not quite the same minefield there.