The Australian Open Draw

First topic message reminder :

I believe will be out just after midnight tonight.

I'm hoping as usual for Nadal and Federer to be on opposite sides. Poor Federer has had more than his fair share of bad luck drawing Nadal in the quarters. First because Nadal'r ranking had dropped and now because his has slipped a little. I would also quite like to see a Djokovic/Federer semi. It's been a while...

Thanks LF

Laver seems to have cut Fed off from those screenshots. I was trying to work out where he'd gone to!

Silver wrote:Thanks LF

NP. Just made it easier to look at.

The Special Juan wrote:And Djokovic has a lovely draw there.

Fed's draw: WC, Stepanek, Verdasco, Tsonga, Murray/Isner, Nadal, Djokovic

Brutal for Fed. That half is pretty loaded actually.

Andy has a good first few matches though, good that he avoided banana skins in the first two certainly. Gives him half a chance to build up his fitness.

Born Slippy wrote:Laver seems to have cut Fed off from those screenshots. I was trying to work out where he'd gone to!

Apologies, BS. He is at #64 …in House with a Bamboo Door, and Bamboo Walls, and a Bamboo floor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbRcqXZOQPU (Just some confusion between 54 and 64 in my head).

No probs LF. Figured it out quickly and the screenshots are very helpful!

Decent draw for Andy. Will be intriguing to see if he can build into the tournament. Tomic surely a genuine threat for Rafa in Round 1?

Federer is going to need a few favours here, that is a brutal draw! Del Potro to take out Nadal, Murray to be rusty and Novak to be undercooked for the final? Thats if Tsonga doesn't decide to write his own script again. Think Rog is already looking at Wimbledon!

Great quarters lineups should the top 4 get there: Rafa gets Del Po, a player who can hit him off yhe court and has done so at Slam events

Djoko gets Wawrinka

Andy gets Verdasco, JWT or Fed

And Ferrer gets Haas or Berdych, the latter will be looking to win given the surface the former a late surge for a first Slam final attempt!

Rafa- Murray SF on. Let it happen

Regardless of the draw I would be content with Andy reaching the quarters. He is so short of match practice/fitness that anything more would be a big bonus. At the moment my money would be on Novak Djokovic.

Being the harbinger of doom it looks like Andy will be losing a heck of a lot of ranking points and slipping out of the top four looks a cast iron certainty.

For once, both federer and nadal get a tough draw. As a Novak fan I have always felt he got a rough deal but this draw has definitely worked out better. That being said a number of potentially tricky customers like gulbis, baghdatis or fognini early on.

Tricky draw for Murray but I reckon if he gets a few comfortable wins under his belt, would definitely fancy him again federer over 5 sets, particularly given recent form. Nadal has a tough route but if he comes through he will no doubt be battle hardened!!

Looks like the side of the draw with Fed, Andy and Rafa is much tougher.

But then we thought that at Wimbledon and look what happened there!

If it goes as per the seeding, the QF line up looks great.

Danny_1982 wrote:[

Murray's 5 wins don't count Julius. I thought you'd been here long enough to understand that. Rafa was injured/tired/tanking for every single one of them.

In matches where both were trying and fully fit, it's 6-0 to Rafa.

   Aaah!! It's good to see that the real tennis season has started. I'll just be glad if he ends up facing Rafa

Give me a quarter final and no injury worries and I'll take it now

CaledonianCraig wrote:Being the harbinger of doom it looks like Andy will be losing a heck of a lot of ranking points and slipping out of the top four looks a cast iron certainty.

True CC. But he doesn't have much to defend between the end of here and Queens. 2000 points if that? Not a lot when there's at least 5000 up for grabs

Wow! Andy's draw is relatively good. Out of 16 players - 5 are qualifiers. Not seen that for a while

Tomic has never lost in the first round at Australia in the Mens singles.  He won the junior slam in 2008.  In the Mens Singles:
2010 loses in 2nd round in a five setter to Cilic (who makes the semi-final)
2011 loses in 3rd round against Nadal (who loses in the QF to Ferrer following an obvious injury)
2012 loses in 4th round against Federer (who makes the semi-final)
2013 loses in 3rd round against Federer (who makes the semi-final)

Tomic is 21 and should be at the height of his powers.  Meeting Nadal in the first round at his  home slam tournament with the crowd on his side ... is a good opportunity for him.  Tomic just needs to put all his energy and thought into the first round - for him getting to the second round will be a career high performance.

Tomic has never played anyone in the top 20 in the first round of the AO and has only beaten 2 players ranked 20 or higher in the last 2 years - Gasquet and Dolgopolov.
He's going to have to play at a level well above anything he's produced in the last couple of years to get anywhere close to Rafa.

JuliusHMarx wrote:... He's going to have to play at a level well above anything he's produced in the last couple of years to get anywhere close to Rafa.

You need to factor in Nadals well known history of losing in the first round of a slam tournament.
Nadals last 7 grand slam tournaments.
Absent: twice
losing in first round: once
losing in second round: once
winning: thrice

So in terms of statistics Nadal has a probability of 42.9 % of NOT making it to the second round whereas Tomic has a 100 % probability of making it to the second round at the Australian Open.  Statistics never lie hence I advise everyone to put all their savings onto Tomic for a win. It's irrefutable.

I think Tomic is going to get hammered. Remember when he played the Fed a year or two ago after "bigging" himself up for the match? Unless something's drastically changed, I don't think his mindset and fitness are good enough to challenge Nadal.

My predictions for the 4th round (for some reason, my favourite round).

Nadal v Hewitt
Raonic v Del Potro
Murray v Isner
Tsonga v Federer
Berdych v Anderson
Ferrer v Janowicz
Stan v Gasquet
Djokovic v The Importance of Being Ernests

Should get a view on how well Tomic might fare against Rafa in the final of Sydney. If he pushes Del Potro or beats him then I think we can assume he will be a challenge.

Nore Staat wrote:Statistics never lie hence I advise everyone to put all their savings onto Tomic for a win. It's irrefutable.

Done. If Tomic loses, can I sleep on your sofa?

Nore Staat Today - I think when Rafa lost at Wimbledon last year it was the first time he's ever been beaten in the first round of a GS.
Two years ago we'd be assuming that the old big 4 would get to the semis and it was just a question of which of them would win.
Things have moved on a little since then, but I'd be surprised if anyone other than Rafa or Djoko were to win this thing.
Best bets outside those two? delPo, maybe, Berdych may be. Share the opinion of some that Andy M will do well to get past the quarters

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Nore Staat wrote:Statistics never lie hence I advise everyone to put all their savings onto Tomic for a win. It's irrefutable.

Done. If Tomic loses, can I sleep on your sofa?

Well statistically speaking I have a 0% record of allowing 606v2 members to sleep on my sofa - assuming I had a sofa.

I suppose Tomic will be rolled over in four sets.  Nadal needs to be "rusty" and Tomic blowing white hot.  But if Tomic really wants to be a top top level player (top 5 say) - then this is the opportunity.  Except if Nadal is well prepared and "injury-free" then I can only see Djokovic possibly stopping him (unless the courts are playing unusually fast).  Anyway I am disappointed to see Tomic ranked way out at 52 (and he has played a full schedule of tournaments - 26).

ps Yes I know about the "Wimbledon factor" - he can't play on "slippery" grass if he is anything less than "injury free".

The courts are apparently no faster than last year

While Murray may have a reasonable first few matches, have to say Murray has a bit of a nightmare second week if he gets there - potentially playing Fed, Nadal and Djoker in a row

Now that is a mare for anyone -

I think Fed is actually a reasonable QF draw for Andy if he is playing well enough to get there. He isn't going to involve Andy in long drawn out rallies like Del Potro would and, on form of the last 6 months, you'd have to say he's less dangerous than Stan. Of course, its Fed and he could roll back the years but he would be my preferred QF draw.

Yes it is a tough second week for Andy, but let's be honest after recovering from surgery and rehab and looking rusty (at best) since his return the reality is he is very unlikely to win this tournament.

If he manages to get to the quarters then good. From that point on I will be watching with very little expectation of him.

He lost to Hewitt today in their exhibition. 2 tie breaks. That was his final warm up.

Riskysports wrote:While Murray may have a reasonable first few matches, have to say Murray has a bit of a nightmare second week if he gets there - potentially playing Fed, Nadal and Djoker in a row

Now that is a mare for anyone

Don't see it. Last meeting in a slam, he beat Federer. He also beat Nadal the last time they met, but obviously this is now irrelevant as it was more than two years ago. As are all their past meeting, simply because both of them come into this event with fitness question marks

For me it's the best QF Andy could have had. I don't think he will have the fitness (either mentally or physically) to be having an atritional battle with the other three, who he's lost the last match to each time he's faced them, i.e. he's managed with a bad back to beat Roger 3 out of 4 times, but has nowhere near the same success ratio against the others

Again though, the fact he is short of match practice, makes all of his QF opponents the favourite, right now

Danny_1982 wrote:Yes it is a tough second week for Andy, but let's be honest after recovering from surgery and rehab and looking rusty (at best) since his return the reality is he is very unlikely to win this tournament.

If he manages to get to the quarters then good. From that point on I will be watching with very little expectation of him.

He lost to Hewitt today in their exhibition. 2 tie breaks. That was his final warm up.

Which is OK. Obviously a close match and Hewitt is still dangerous

Andy might be holding something back - wouldn't be surprised to find that he brings his game face to the event

Ferrer lost to Lu this morning. A youngster from that part of the draw would be wonderful to see at QF/SF stage. Perhaps Jerzy can put aside his mental demons and get somewhere.

@NS… I like your statistical model of Tomic beating Nadal (a la Darcis).

Here is a video from ATP for those who may have missed it.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/01/2/Australian-Open-Draw-Live-Stream.aspx

Its a good draw for Murray. The first three rounds don't look overly challenging and should hopefully sharpen his match skills and fitness. Isner in R4 is a challenge but one Andy has the tools to overcome (and the points will be short). Fed i have dealt with above and if, by some miracle, Andy was to get to the SF I think I would narrowly prefer him to play Nadal at that stage (given Novak's recent issues in GS finals). Its damage limitation to his ranking really here though and testing out the back and gaining match sharpness. No expectations of winning which must be a pleasant mental position for him.

Let's face it. This event is Novak's to lose

Away from the French, I've not felt this about a favourite, since Fed at Aus 08'. Mind you, let's not forget what happened then!!

If Djoko can continue his pre-Christmas form, it's his to lose. However, peak, superform Djokovic had the battle of his life to beat Rafa here, a battle that has frankly influenced their subsequent GS encounters and Rafa's HC play since then has arguably been his best ever, so if Djoko has dropped down at all, I don't think it's anywhere near written in stone

banbrotam wrote:Let's face it. This event is Novak's to lose ...

Indeed. Never before have I been so convinced of a winner since One Direction's mud wrestling tag match with Justin Bieber and Miley Cyrus.

ChequeJer - Reckon the rest of the top players will be hoping for another Rafa-Djoko six-hourer which could finish one or both of them off.
Twice before - Madrid in 09 and the AO final in 2012 - an ultra-long battle with Djoko has led to Rafa having, later, injury problems.
Smart money is on these two reaching the final again. Djoko, incidentally, is having a fair stab at Roger's consecutive GS semi-finals record.

Yes it is certain that Novak will win the AO. Everyone was wondering what possible reason Novak had for hiring Boris as a coach but the part Boris played in the draw ceremony has made everything clear.

To save a little time Novak was handed the trophy this morning

http://www.thehindu.com/multimedia/dynamic/01716/AUSTRALIAN_OPEN_TE_1716417f.jpg

I do agree that Novak would have to be considered the favourite at present but even that is making me a bit nervous!

If he gets to the final and loses to Rafa, on this court, having had the benefit of a kind draw... that's a big blow to recover from.

Losing 3 slam finals in a row and winning only 1 out of 6 finals post-AO12 would also be worrying statistics.

It's a situation where a win will be seen as unremarkable but a loss would be catastrophic.

Well having read the irrefutable verdict of the members of 606v2 I dont think Ill waste my time watching it..The fact that Rafa beat the Oz Kid in the AO in three sets last time out dont count for much I know.  But as its Novaks for the asking especially with Becker cheering him on I think Ill put my feet up and read my book 

Haddie-nuff wrote:Well having read the irrefutable verdict of the members of 606v2 I dont think Ill waste my time watching it..The fact that Rafa beat the Oz Kid in the AO in three sets last time out  dont count for much I know.  But as its Novaks for the asking especially with Becker cheering him on I think Ill put my feet up and read my book 

You mean Tomic? Easy straight sets for Rafa I'd say. I think most of us here agree.

No more than a dozen games for tomic imo.

Given some of Tomic's past controversies ("Lleyton's not good enough"!!!!), this may be one of the few matches that neutrals would actually want to see Rafa stuff an underdog?

Nadal will marmalise Tomic. I make Novak the favourite for the title on the grounds of his record in Melbourne and his favourable draw.

Ive never ever been known to stick my neck out at a GS .. tricky .. like the Grand National..too many things happen in the course of two weeks and 5 set matches. No clear winner for me.. the weather has played a big part at the AO in the past especially where Novak is concerned. Rafa is used to the hot weather.. but even that especially on a hard court may not be any advantage to him.  This particular GS is for me, the most unpredictable.

I don't think saying someone is the favourite means you're in any way certain that he'll win it.

I'm not certain Rafa is going to destroy Tomic. He is, in my view, by a long way the most dangerous of the "new generation". The suggestions are that he has his head screwed on the right way round this year and he has already reached the final in Sydney. The four games he produced at the start of the second set v. Nadal three years ago were exceptional but, as an 18 year old, he couldn't maintain that standard. I think he will get at least a set off Rafa but I'll be interested to see how he gets on against DP first.

I wouldn´t even stick my neck out that far... and it would be a brave man anyway who would use the word "certain"  in any context where Grand Slams are concerned.
Opinions based on statistics is one thing. Above that its in the lap of the Gods.  Players changing their coaches is a fair indication that they sure are not certain no matter what the drawer there are a fair few banana skins out there no matter what quarter they are in

Djoko going for the four-peat. So unpredictable :P

Haddie-nuff wrote:Well having read the irrefutable verdict of the members of 606v2 I dont think Ill waste my time watching it..The fact that Rafa beat the Oz Kid in the AO in three sets last time out  dont count for much I know.  But as its Novaks for the asking especially with Becker cheering him on I think Ill put my feet up and read my book 

I hope it's "Seventy-Seven: My Road to Wimbledon Glory"

Caw yeah !!! knocks 50 shades of Grey into a Cocked Hat