Aviva Premiership - Round 19 Preview

League Standings:

67pts Northampton
57pts Saracens
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56pts Bath
55pts Leicester
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54pts Exeter
48pts Wasps
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47pts Sale
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39pts Harlequins
37pts Gloucester
33pts London Irish
26pts Newcastle
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 1pt  London Welsh



Fri 10th Apr

19:45 Newcastle Falcons  v  Bath Rugby BT Sport
Both sides will have been disappointed with their performances last weekend. Bath will know that they had a real chance to make the champions Cup semi-final, if only their outside backs could have played half as well as George Ford did inside them. Falcons meanwhile were thrashed by Exeter for the second time this season. Last time that happened they returned to Kingston Park to secure an entertaining win against Wasps. Falcons fans (as well as Tigers, Sarries, Chiefs) will be hoping for more of the same. Both sides have enterprising running game, and defences that can leave holes - so entertainment may indeed be present. As too often though you feel that JP Doyles interpretations at scrum time could have a huge bearing. Falcons LH woes are well documented, as are Baths injuries at TH - so this could balance out. Paul James is currently the most penalised player in the AP - if this continues then Falcons could provide an upset.


Sat 11th Apr

15:00 Harlequins  v   Gloucester Rugby
Two teams who are realistically just fighting for pride. Will Gloucester be concentrating on their Challenge Cup semi?


15:15 Saracens v   Leicester Tigers BT Sport
Sarries had a hard fought win last Sunday in the Champions Cup and may well have one eye on next weeks clash with Clermont. With a shortened gap and massive fixture next week, will McCall take the chance to rest some players? I cannot see Leicester getting anything from a full strength Sarries team, but if they choose to rest the walking wounded like Charlie Hodgson and wrap up the likes of Mako and Billy in cotton-wool - well then we may sneak something from the game.



Sun 12th Apr

14:00 Exeter Chiefs  v  Northampton Saints       BT Sport
Two very differing performances last weekend, it will be interesting to see how the teams react. With nothing left to play for Saints surely have to come out firing. Chiefs meanwhile know that completing a double over the Champions will see them move back into a play-off spot. Shoudl be an excellent game with plenty of points on offer. Will Exeter continue with Mumm at 7? Will Waldrom continue his fine form as he seeks to push for a WC spot? Can Saints deliver a performance the like we have yet to see in 2015? You feel they have to, not only if they are to win this game but also to gain confidence for the end of season run in.

14:30 London Welsh  v  Wasps
Welsh are relegated, so perhaps can go out and have some fun. Reckon we may see over 100pts scored in this efence optional game, with Welsh picking up their second TBP in a heavy defeat.


15:00 London Irish  v  Sale Sharks Sharks
Steve Diamond believes that they can still make the play-offs, but need to win all four remaining matches to stand a chance. More realistically they are fighting to stay clear of Quins and make the ECC play-off and possibly overtake Wasps to secure 6th spot. Either way they have more to play for and could well squeeze out a narrow win.

Falcons team:

15. S. Hammersley, 14. C.Harris, 13. A.Powell (c), 12. JP.Socino, 11. S.Sinoti, 10. R.Clegg, 9. R.Tipuna, 1. R.Vickers, 2. S.Lawson, 3. K.Brookes, 4. C.Green, 5. K.Thompson, 6. R.Mayhew, 7. M.Wilson, 8. C.York

Replacements: 16. G.MGuigan, 17. E.Fry, 18. JP.Orlandi, 19. J.Furno, 20. S.Robinson, 21. S.Takulua, 22. T.Catterick, 23. G.Tiesi

Bath Rugby team to face Newcastle Falcons

15. Anthony Watson
14. Semesa Rokoduguni
13. Jonathan Joseph
12. Ollie Devoto
11. Matt Banahan
10. George Ford
9. Peter Stringer
1. Nick Auterac
2. Ross Batty
3. Max Lahiff
4. Matt Garvey
5. Dominic Day
6. Sam Burgess
7. Francois Louw ( c )
8. Leroy Houston

Replacements

16. Rob Webber
17. Paul James
18. Kane Palma-Newport
19. Dave Attwood
20. Carl Fearns
21. Alafoti Faosiliva
22. Micky Young
23. Tom Homer


Sam Burgess makes his first AP start in the back row in a Bath side that shows at least 8 changes, and just two backs on the bench

Falcons won't be upsetting anyone this weekend, principally because Bath are head and shoulders above them in terms of quality this season.

For Saracens, Burger will be suspended - it was a pretty obvious late, high hit - and I also think they will rotate rather than go full strength. This is their standard policy, and sandwiched between two European matches I expect a few changes where it does not weaken the XV dramatically.

1. M. Vunipola
2. Brits (he's back and needs to get up to match fitness)
3. Figallo
4. Hamilton
5. Hargreaves
6. Itoje
7. Brown
8. B. Vunipola

9. De Kock
10. Hodgson
11. Strettle
12. Wyles
13. Bosch
14. Ashton
15. Goode

Basically the same backline from last week, but with de Kock rotated in. Frankly, their backs didn't do very much last weekend anyway...

Pack very mixed up. If Hargreaves isn't fit then Kruis to start. The three front-line locks each get rotated regularly.

Itoje into the back row. Burger's inevitable ban makes that likely, and Sarries really trust their young star - he's only 20 but has played 17 games already this season. They might not be convinced he has the beast to be a lock right now, but they'll stick him in at 6 against us.

Wray rotated out for Brown. I think Billy will start, though - there is a fair drop from him to Joubert right now, and whilst he could do with a break after the 6N and European games, I think this game is too big to drop him. The alternative back-row could include either Wray or Joubert for Billy (if they have both eyes on next week) but I have a feeling that Itoje starts regardless

Really interested to see Burgess at 6.

I would be very surprised if Vunipola is starting.

He hasn't had much of a rest considering the amount of big games he has played recently.

And he has been putting in a lot of work in each game.

Cant believe York is starting for us??

Aside from that I expect quite a heavy defeat.

I note Lahiff starts at TH....I thought he was a LH?

Welly wrote: I would be very surprised if Vunipola is starting.

He hasn't had much of a rest considering the amount of big games he has played recently.

And he has been putting in a lot of work in each game.

Maybe, but can they afford NOT to play him?

I think he will. Be a bench player.

If Sarries are doing well they won't use him but if it is tight could bring him on and make a hell of an impact.

I just feel with it being a home game sarries could back a slightly weaker team anyway.

Interesting to see Itoje and Burgess at 6.

Yea Burgess at 6 is what a lot of people have been calling for, will be interesting to see what happens

GeordieFalcon wrote:Interesting to see Itoje and Burgess at 6.

Itoje may not play at 6 - that was purely me speculating.

Saints looked exhausted against Clermont. I wouldn't be surprised to see them use the buffer they have in the league to facilitate some rest for key players. Hartley and Lawes in particular could use a week off.

Bath have a huge pack out for the game vs Falcons but the lack of a front line tight head might make life difficult for them in the scrum.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Saints looked exhausted against Clermont. I wouldn't be surprised to see them use the buffer they have in the league to facilitate some rest for key players. Hartley and Lawes in particular could use a week off.

Bath have a huge pack out for the game vs Falcons but the lack of a front line tight head might make life difficult for them in the scrum.

Beshocked has said that Saints have 'flattered to deceive'. I'm not sure I agree really - but it might be that they have peaked too early. You've got a few teams coming up on the rails now that could (based on current form) cause Saints all sorts of problems in the play-offs, even at the Gardens. Worse for Saints is that traditional rivals Tigers might well sneak that 4th spot and look to be finally gathering momentum.... Is the buffer they have enough if they were to collapse completely? Should be shouldn't it.

Falcons.... watched them against LI couple of weeks ago. Looked bereft of a serious attacking threat in the backs, although Sinoti is pretty handy. Can't see Bath losing this although it might not be the big win Geordie reckons.

I think some careful rotation to allow certain key players will see Saints right. They don't have the biggest squad and tend to be reliant on a number of core players. It's been a tough season for them. They need to hang on to a top two spot, nothing more. They have a buffer they should use to try and freshen up their squad so they are firing on all cylinders come the big games.

We were infuriating again London Irish....and inept against Exeter hence why I fear a heavy defeat.

Besides we don't have the heaviest pack out...and our scrum is a serous weakness.

However if we can find our form of a few months back, when we played some cracking rugby then we'll at least give them a game.

Saints have a rest next week, so can see them going hard for this one.

Sarries have Tigers at home, followed by Clermont and Saints away. If they rest anyone it is surely this weekend?

LondonTiger wrote:Saints have a rest next week, so can see them going hard for this one.

Sarries have Tigers at home, followed by Clermont and Saints away. If they rest anyone it is surely this weekend?

Nah....everyone puts out their strongest possible side against Tigers. Its the law.

Home team overwhelmingly win in Quins vs Gloucester. Hope we follow the pattern, more hope that we actually put in a decent performance

Yes a decent performance and a win would be nice. Seeing the backs hold into the ball and the forwards boss their oppos would be nice too

I'd also take any indication that Care has some form back and Nev isn't quite past it

A reliable 13 who could pass and catch plus a tight 5 who could scrimmage would be handy too

LondonTiger wrote:Saints have a rest next week, so can see them going hard for this one.

Sarries have Tigers at home, followed by Clermont and Saints away. If they rest anyone it is surely this weekend?

End of season schedule for the top 5 teams, as of 19, April 2015

SAINTS 67 Points	SARACENS 57 Points	LEICESTER 55 Points	BATH 56 Points	EXETER 54 points
At Exeter	HOME Leicester	At Saracens	At Newcastle	Home Northampton
Off	at Clermont Auvergne	Off	Off	Off
HOME  Saracens	At Saints	HOME London Welsh	HOME London Irish	At Wasps
HOME London Welsh	HOME Exeter	At Wasps	At Harlequins	At Saracens
At Leicester	At London Welsh	HOME Saints	HOME Gloucester	HOME Sharks

Saints:  If Saints they win their home games and snag the standard bonus point from LW, they will be +9 points from now (+19 v. current point totals for the other teams).  A bonus point of any kind from the away matches, Exe or Leicester, gives them +21 and they are alone at the top.  However, this is a difficult schedule for a team in desperate need of rest.  The small squad is not helpful here.  If they obtain a BP against Exe (a 50/50 proposition in my book), they will enter their off-weekend in good shape.  And ready to prepare for Saracens, LW, Leicester.  But this is a classic example team needing a break to gut out the rest of the season.   

Saracens:  Given Saints likely results (though certainly not guaranteed) Saracens need to run out winners in all 4 Premiership matches.  Probably would need 19 bonus points in their next 4 matches to draw level.  So Saracens have a must win against Saints if they want to try to go top.  On the other hand, there is no real downside to finishing second in the table and if so, they rest some players against Saints, after tough matches against Leicester and Clermont Auvergne.  Then go balls to the wall against Exe, and LW.  

Leicester:  Should win at least 3 of their last 4 matches.  Which ones?  And where will they earn bonus points, which might be the key?  At Saracens will be a tough bloody-minded match, but Leicester have a week off to recuperate.  But that match sets the tome for the remaining matches.  A win changes everything.  Their second week is the usual 5 pointer hosting LW.  So they will be fresh as a new-born against Wasps and Saints.  Perfect end of season run-in for Leicester.  Last match of the season should be terrific if Saints have anything to play for.  

Bath:  Easiest run-in of any of the top 5 teams.  Could likely run the table, the number of bonus points the only question.  If Quins slow down the match and play some defense, Bath might be held to below +20 bonus points fo the end-season run-in.  However, I have a feeling there is an upset lurking in the woodpile somewhere (Quins!) and Bath end the season with 3 wins out of 4.  But also beaucoup bonus points.  

Exeter:  The end of the season for Exe rests on that next home match against Saints (who appeared merde-like en La Belle France).  If they kick Saints and take the full 5 points, Exe are set up for tough matches at Wasps and at Saracens.  This match might be one of the most pivotal of the end season.  They could win 3 out of 4 matches and put the whole table up for grabs.  

I think the end of the season will be close all the way.  Saints are a tired, beat-up team at the moment, and don't have the depth to fill the holes.  Small squad and players need recuperative time.  Classic examples of too much Rugby.  So they are really on the bubble.  Finishing top does not guarantee them anything, as we know.  I think we will have a tense, tight end of season.  Also the playoffs should be terrific - the talent levels are that close.

Jimpy I agree. Bath should comfortably romp to victory over Newcastle but Burgess at 6 could be heavily penalised.

The thing about Saints is that they've been creaking but have still been picking up the points in the last few weeks. Frailties vs Quins,Gloucester and Wasps but - 11 points in those 3 games is not a bad return at all despite Saints not in top form.


This is where the difficulty comes for Saracens - keeping players fit when they've been on England duty, getting beaten up in the ERCC and tough AP matches. No rest periods.

One good thing for Saracens is that players are coming back at the right time.

Barritt,Brits and Farrell all should augment a Saracens side that has done well in their absence.

Another is that Saracens are on a bit of a roll - aside from their loss away to Sale they've been one of the form sides in the AP recently. Can't take the Tigers game lightly though!

doctor grey cannot afford to rest players vs Saints as Bath are currently the favourites for 2nd. Sarries need to go with as strong a side as they can vs Saints.

I expect Billy will be rested vs Leicester. I don't think Saracens can afford to rest Mako against anyone - I would certainly worry if Saracens start with penalty machine Gill.

With Burger's ban he will be missing the Leicester game anyway. He's a very lucky guy.

Jimpy you're guess of the Saracens side is pretty accurate though I hope Billy is rested. It's a risk sure but Sarries really need him fit for Clermont.

beshocked wrote:Jimpy I agree. Bath should comfortably romp to victory over Newcastle but Burgess at 6 could be heavily penalised.

The thing about Saints is that they've been creaking but have still been picking up the points in the last few weeks. Frailties vs Quins,Gloucester and Wasps but - 11 points in those 3 games is not a bad return at all despite Saints not in top form.


This is where the difficulty comes for Saracens - keeping players fit when they've been on England duty, getting beaten up in the ERCC and tough AP matches. No rest periods.

One good thing for Saracens is that players are coming back at the right time.

Barritt,Brits and Farrell all should augment a Saracens side that has done well in their absence.

Another is that Saracens are on a bit of a roll - aside from their loss away to Sale they've been one of the form sides in the AP recently. Can't take the Tigers game lightly though!

doctor grey cannot afford to rest players vs Saints as Bath are currently the favourites for 2nd. Sarries need to go with as strong a side as they can vs Saints.

I expect Billy will be rested vs Leicester. I don't think Saracens can afford to rest Mako against anyone - I would certainly worry if Saracens start with penalty machine Gill.

With Burger's ban he will be missing the Leicester game anyway. He's a very lucky guy.

Jimpy you're guess of the Saracens side is pretty accurate though I hope Billy is rested. It's a risk sure but Sarries really need him fit for Clermont.

You always say that....

Leicester Tigers (v Saracens, away, Saturday 3.15pm)
15 Mathew Tait
14 Niall Morris
13 Matt Smith
12 Seremaia Bai
11 Vereniki Goneva
10 Freddie Burns
9 Ben Youngs (c)
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 Tom Youngs
3 Dan Cole
4 Sebastian De Chaves
5 Geoff Parling
6 Jamie Gibson
7 Julian Salvi
8 Jordan Crane

Replacements
16 Leonardo Ghiraldini
17 Michele Rizzo
18 Logovi'i Mulipola
19 Graham Kitchener
20 Laurence Pearce
21 Sam Harrison
22 Tommy Bell
23 Adam Thompstone

Quins
15. Ollie Lindsay-Hague
14. Marland Yarde
13. Aseli Tikoirotuma
12. Harry Sloan
11. Charlie Walker
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler©
2. Dave Ward
3. Matt Shields
4. Nick Easter
5. George Robson
6. Luke Wallace
7. Chris Robshaw
8. Jack Clifford

Replacements
16. Rob Buchanan
17. Mark Lambert
18. Darryl Marfo
19. Charlie Matthews
20. Netani Talei
21. Karl Dickson
22. Ben Botica
23. Ugo Monye


Glaws
Steve McColl; Charlie Sharples, Bill Meakes, Billy Twelvetrees (capt), Jonny May; James Hook; Greig Laidlaw; Nick Wood, Richard Hibbard, John Afoa; Tom Savage, James Hudson; Sione Kalamafoni, Jacob Rowan, Gareth Evans

Replacements:
Darren Dawidiuk, Dan Murphy, Sila Puafisi, Mariano Galarza, Ross Moriarty, Dan Robson, Billy Burns, Henry Purdy

Geordiefalcon should is different to will.

I would love it if you could beat Bath - I just think they will be too strong.




http://www.saracens.com/saracens-name-team-for-leicester/



15 Alex Goode; 14 Chris Ashton; 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Brad Barritt; 11 Chris Wyles; 10 Charlie Hodgson, 9 Richard Wigglesworth; 1 Mako Vunipola, 2 Jamie George, 3 Petrus Du Plessis; 4 George Kruis, 5 Alistair Hargreaves ©; 6 Jackson Wray, 7 Kelly Brown, 8 Billy Vunipola.

Replacements: 16 Scott Spurling, 17 Richard Barrington, 18 James Johnston, 19 Maro Itoje, 20 Ernst Joubert, 21 Neil de Kock, 22 Duncan Taylor, 23 David Strettle.


Pretty much the strongest side that can be fielded......

Sarries v Leicester looks a close one....wouldn't like to say who will come out on top in that.

Fair enough Geordiefalcon. Personally I would expect Saracens to win at home with that team they've put out - will be very disappointed if they don't.


Tigers are good enough to win though. We'll see how the scrums do. Leicester's scrummaging is obviously highly rated and of course should be. Mako-Jamie-Du Plessis have been holding their own - we'll see what they can do.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Sarries v Leicester looks a close one....wouldn't like to say who will come out on top in that.

Unless Sarries are off colour or we play amazingly well cannot see anything other than a really comfortable home win.

Exeter:
Dollman; Whitten, Nowell, Hill, Jess; Slade, Chudley; Moon, Yeandle, Francis, Mumm (capt), Lees, Ewers, White, Waldrom.
Replacements: Taione, Rimmer, Brown, Skinner, Horstmann, Lewis, Steenson, James.

Northampton:
Wilson; Ken Pisi, George Pisi, Burrell, Elliott; Myler, Fotuali'i; Corbisiero, Hartley (capt), Denman, Manoa, Day, Wood, Clark, Dickinson.
Replacements: Haywood, Waller, Mercey, Fisher, Dowson, Dickson, Stephenson, Tuala.

Bath
Gloucester
Sarries
Exeter
Wasps
Irish

Would be my guesses but only really confident about Sarries and Wasps

Judging by how poor the Quins scrum is it is very worrying that PDJ can't get in that side!

Tom Youngs with a pointless yellow and penalty 5m out and then the ref is penalising Tigers for Sarries wheeling to the blindside. Gifted Sarries seven points.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Tom Youngs with a pointless yellow and penalty 5m out and then the ref is penalising Tigers for Sarries wheeling to the blindside. Gifted Sarries seven points.

What do you think of the billy clear out that hit tait? Leading with his head and not using his arms. Borderline ok for me, but he needs to be careful as a different ref would give him 19 minutes on the side line for that.

Embarrassing how bad the quins scrum is now. Pretty dire game, looks like both teams just want this season over.

Not looking good for ayerza.

How are sarries getting away with wheeling the scrum?

That Billy V clear out was reckless. Very lucky not to get a card, if Carley requests the TMO then it wouldn't have been a positive reaction as it was a flying head.

Ayerza is a huge loss. The ref isn't on side and we're struggling. This could be a pasting.

formerly known as Sam wrote:That Billy V clear out was reckless. Very lucky not to get a card, if Carley requests the TMO then it wouldn't have been a positive reaction as it was a flying head.

Ayerza is a huge loss. The ref isn't on side and we're struggling. This could be a pasting.

Why wasn't our captain asking three to look though

OTY cost us big style.

Oty?

Dayglo really does my head in

Sarries laying all over the ball.


I should be quite really, be shocked will not be hapoy

Nathan I think it was only visible on the replay. Might be a citing. Who knows.

We've been dire. The intensity hasn't been there. It's like they've not expected to won so they've admitted defeat before kick off. Only Burns has earned his pay today.

Completely agree, b. Youngs has been poor

If Leicester are going to win this game they need to find some cutting edge in attack.

The difference has been the superior Saracens attack. Punching far more holes in the defence which has piled on the pressure.

nathan wrote:Oty?

Dayglo really does my head in

Tom Youngs

beshocked wrote:If Leicester are going to win this game they need to find some cutting edge in attack.  

The difference has been the superior Saracens attack. Punching far more holes in the defence which has piled on the pressure.

Defence has been a big plus for sarries although they are getting away with not moving away quick enough but you need to play the ref. tigers should be doing the same

I wonder if Sarries will throw away another 4th try bonus point opportunity.

I think they've squandered 7 opportunities when on 3 tries.