European Champions Cup Final

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Northampton Saints v London Wasps

Location - Twickenham
Light Cloud, 12 Degrees, 9mph SSW Winds

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Northampton Saints
Manager Dammit Chris

01. Thomas Domingo	09. Corbus Reinarch
02. Rob Webber	10. George Ford
03. Logi Mulipola
04. Samu Manoa	11. Julian Savea
05. Courtney Lawes	12. Matt Giteau
06. Schalk Burger	13. Manu Tuilagi
07. David Pocock(c)	14. Tommy Bowe
08. Billy Vunipola	15. Leigh Halfpenny(k)

Tactics:
While Wasps opted to carry a lot in normal time, we choose a less energy sapping kicking game and bring on Giteau in the midfield for his experience. Finals are decided by small margins and we will turn the screw in the set piece with our bench in both lineout and scrum, plus have more ball carrying options (Webber, Logi, Samoa, Vunipola) to put us in positions where Halfpenny's boot can prove decisive. In our backline we feel that we at least match Wasps attacking threat, so combination of less tired legs through tactical kicking in normal time, strong set piece and Halfpenny's boot will be telling.

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Wasps
Manager: Ozzy3213  
                   

01. Scott Sio	09. Aaron Smith
02. Tom Youngs	10. Aaron Cruden
03. Ben Alexander
04. Matt Symons	11. Bryan Habana
05. Sebastien Vahaamahina	12. Ma'a Nonu
06. Marcell Coetzee	13. Henry Slade
07. Steffon Armitage	14. Tim Nanai-Williams
08. Duane Vermeulen ©	15. Anthony Watson

Tactical variation

We will continue to play in a similar vein to how we have played for 80 minutes.  We have however brought on Henry Slade at 13 for his additional kicking game, to ensure we don't get caught out if it's not on running it from deep.  We will look to get the front row replacements carrying hard, Smith sniping at 9 and Watson looking to isolate tired legs in the Saints side.

Should be a cracker

Is it teams by Wednesday as it's a neutral ground like it was for the semis?

Yep Pete neutral grounds so Wednesday deadline for both

Wasps make 2 changes to the starting line up for this weeks European Challenge Cup Final against Northampton Saints.  Ben Youngs starts at 9 with Aaron Smith dropping to the bench, and Samu Kerevi comes into the 13 jersey in place of Paul Jordaan who drops out of the matchday 23.  Director of Rugby Ozzy3213 had this to day;-

"We are really looking forward to the game this weekend.  We've made a couple of changes which we think can benefit us against Saints.  It's tough on a couple of guys who've missed out, but we are trusting this 23 to get the job done.  We know it will be a real battle, as it was when we beat them at their place a few weeks back, but we're in good form and go into the game full of confidence."

Wasps
Manager: Ozzy3213  
                   

01. Joe Marler	09. Ben Youngs
02. Bismarck du Plessis	10. Aaron Cruden
03. David Wilson
04. Matt Symons	11. Bryan Habana
05. Alun-Wyn Jones	12. Ma'a Nonu
06. Jerome Kaino	13. Samu Kerevi
07. Steffon Armitage	14. Tim Nanai-Williams
08. Duane Vermeulen ©	15. Delon Armitage

Replacements: 16. Tom Youngs 17. Scott Sio 18. Ben Alexander 19. Sebastien Vahaamahina 20. Marcell Coetzee 21. Aaron Smith 22. Henry Slade 23. Anthony Watson

Basic Game Plan
In good conditions we will be looking to play a possession based, fast offloading game, keeping the ball alive moving the Saints defence around.  We will only kick when it is the best attacking option, or if we have absolutely no choice to in our own 22.

In defence, as always we will be running a blitz defence.  Our focus will be on the gainline collisions and driving back in the tackle.  Line speed and no dog-legs will be key components for us.  We will trust the inside man to make the tackle to ensure that we do not get too narrow and leave space on the outside.  Youngs will sweep in behind the defensive line to counter any chips/grubbers. Delon will look to cover slightly nearer to the openside wing in anticipation of the crossfield kick.

Specifics

• Lineout.  Mix things up.  We will use the driving maul, in particular off ball to the tail, but when right to do so we will go off the top, also shortening the line and using our back row as crash ball options from there.  Defensively we will get Symons up at the front to disrupt if unsure where the ball is going.  If we get the read, we'll try to get AWJ in position to steal or at very least make it very messy ball for Saints.
  
• Scrum.  Get low.  Herrera is 6'4" and his replacement Mulipola is 6'5".  Marler to get underneath and drive straight, effectively forcing them to stand up and take Hartley up with them, thereby making their scrum unstable and easier to push back.  If we're going forward and it's there to play, we'll get it out while their 8 are on the back foot.  If the penalty comes we'll take that as well.
  
• Breakdown.  When we carry into contact, if we are taken to ground, we will flood the breakdown.  In defence, if we have made a passive tackle and the carrier has momentum we will not overcommit, but will maintain a strong defensive line.  If we win the collision and knock the carrier back we will look to get the second man in hard over the ball to turn it over.  If we haven't come off best in the collision we will get our next man in to legally make a mess and looking to take their jackler off the ball forcing another one of the players in to retrieve it, thereby buying us time to set the defensive line.  Key for us is being selective.  When on Habana will be looking for the intercept.
  
• Attacking Play.  We will be looking to play a Super Rugby type offloading game, with the ball shifted on to the support runner just prior to the point of the tackle with the defender already committed.  We want to keep the ball alive as much as possible.  TNW given licence to come off his wing and play on the shoulders of Cruden, Nonu and Kerevi, looking to be put into whatever gaps appear in midfield.  If the ball is slow and Saints are blitzing we will also utilise the pick and go, with the aim of keeping the blitz honest and forcing them slowly onto the back foot before going wider out.  Youngs to also look to snipe around the fringes and keep us going forwards all the time, with Cruden also looking to go through gaps if Saints players jump out of the line.  
  
• Tactical Kicking.  If we kick, we will look to kick for touch and contest the opposition lineout.  
  

Key Points

• Form/Momentum  We are in great form within the game as we come to the business end of the season.  In real life, I don't think I need to point out the form of our players, you all watch enough rugby to know who is playing well and who is not.
  
• Leadership/Experience  Big game, and 6 of our pack have captained sides at at least Heineken Cup/Super Rugby level, with Cruden also having captained at that level and huge experience behind him in the backs.
  
• Psychological Advantage  We beat Saints on their own patch only a few weeks ago, and at this point are in pole position for a home play off semi final, meaning we can focus solely on this game.  Saints have faltered in the last couple of months and now have to really scrap for a home semi in their remaining games, that has to be in the back of their mind in this one.
  
• Spine  In those key jerseys, 2,8,9,10 we have world class players who would all be in the debate for the best in their positions in the world, as well as full internationals on the bench to replace them.  In big games, when things get tight, those guys can be the difference between winning and losing.
  
• Continuity  We've rotated in previous weeks, allowing us to keep changes to a minimum in the run in, and maintain continuity, playing patterns and form through our last few games.
  

Best of luck Chris, this one could well be tight.

Northampton Saints
Manager Dammit Chris

01. Mako Vunipola	09. Joe Simpson
02. Dylan Hartley	10. George Ford
03. Ramiro Herrera
04. Jonny Gray	11. Julian Savea
05. Courtney Lawes	12. Wesley Fofana
06. Schalk Burger	13. Elliot Daly
07. David Pocock	14. Tommy Bowe
08. Sergio Parisse	15. Leigh Halfpenny

Replacements:
16. Rob Webber 17. Thomas Domingo 18. Logi Mulipola 19. Samu Manoa 20. Billy Vunipola 21. Cobus Reinarch  22. Matt Giteau 23. Manu Tuilagi

Overall Gameplan: Conditions allow us to play at a high tempo, with an emphasis on making the most of our mobile, physical pack with strong strike runners in the backline to win the gainline battle and provide our halfbacks with a platform to attack Wasps and put the backs into space to score tries. Aim to control the territory with a strong kicking game from Simpson, Ford, Daly and Halfpenny - with the game looking to be close we will look to Halfpenny's boot and 55metre kicks from Daly to be a decisive factor.

Key Points:
* Take 3 points at every opportunity - Halfpenny's boot and Daly range from 55 meters that should be key in European final.
* Target Kerevi in the Wasps midfield in attack and defence, 1 start and 2 sub appearances all season means that this is an area we can really exploit.
* Fresh pack with 4 players returning to starting lineup (Mako, Lawes, Burger, Parisse). Return to form of Burger and Pocock in real life very timely too.
* Match winners playing very well in real life - Simpson, Ford, Fofana,Daly, Bowe, Savea and Halfpenny all in good form.
* Impact bench to finish the final quarter very strongly, particularly if the game edges towards extra time (Manoa and BV both been nominated for forward of the season in AP).
* One defeat in 3 years of European rugby.

Pack: We've selected a mobile pack that has a high work rate and strong defensively, particularly our second row pairing. Recalling Mako, Lawes, Burger and Parisse ensures we have a very fresh pack to play at a high tempo throughout the 80mins. We will get our strong carriers onto the ball and with Webber, Mulipola, Vunipola and Manoa on the bench this is an area we will look to press home late in the game.

Setpiece: Scrumwise we will look to take advantage of Wilson's lack of game time in real life, with Hartley and Herrera strong scrummagers and Mako improving there a lot this season. We have picked three top class lineout jumpers, who can be supported by Pocock and Burger when needed, this provides us with a lot of opportunities to generate quick ball for our backline to attack. Close to the Wasps line we will set up driving mauls for Pocock to control at the base for potential pushover tries. Lawes will attack the Wasps lineout, which could be an area to exploit.

Attack: Ford will control our attack, putting the ball into our strike runners to get us over the gainline - we are particularly focusing our attack on Kerevi. He's had one start for Wasps this year and appeared on their bench twice, so defensively we will single him out with Daly attacking his outside shoulder and creating space for our wingers and Ford sending Fofana and Savea running at his channel. We will use the cross field kick for Bowe and Savea to challenge in attack as see this as an area we can get some success in, especially on Nanai-Williams wing.

Kicking/Territory: We want to play the game in the right area and aim to push Wasps back into their own half - Ford will be supported by Simpson, Daly and Halfpenny and we will seek to make Wasps take lineouts in their own half where any error can result in a kickable penalty for Halfpenny. Believe we have the stronger kicking game.

Breakdown: We have a mobile pack that can allow us to get numbers to the breakdown, with our ball carriers we can get forward momentum that can help us secure our own ball. In defence we will not overcommit, but will look at bringing a lot of physicality in this area with Gray, Lawes and Burger supporting Pocock looking for turnovers. With Cruden's form off the tee we will take a few more chances to get turnovers, as that is an area we can really hurt Wasps with our backline.

Defence: Will play a physical rush defence, aiming to put pressure on Cruden with Lawes (and later Manoa) targeting big hits. Fofana selected to add more defensively to stop the threat of Nonu and Bowe to marshall Habana. Strong back three to deal with Cruden's kicking game. Simpson to sweep in behind the defensive line.

SJE, as we both have our teams and tactics in, I've updated the match thread, and with your permission, to give maximum time to get them in, predos OPEN.

Good luck Pete! Have a very different pack out from when you beat me at Franklins Gardens Glad we dont have to predict on this game!!!

Ah, so you mean you underestimated us up at your place and got your backside handed to you.  Good mindset to be in!

Northampton Saints 18-20 London Wasps
Can't see a set piece edge between the packs. Both sides capable of turnovers through their 7s but can't see either getting an edge at the breakdown overall. BDP would have given an edge if in better form. Decent form in both half back combos the last few months but Wasps shade with bit more in both shirts. Some great form across both back lines. Hard to separate the midfield but Saints edge the back three. Both 13s defensively could have issues.

Saints looking to use their stronger kicking game to pin Wasps back and rely on Wasps mistakes and competing at the line out for good attacking possession and to keep the score board ticking. Wasps with a more attacking approach playing their usual game. Can see Saints keeping the score board ticking but giving up an awful lot of possession to do so and feel Wasps have the ability to take advantage of it with the halfbacks on show and some great form in the backs irl recently.

Saints 27-24 wasps

Great game and 2 great teams. Tactically all correct _and hard to seperate.

For me saints have better form players. Also see playing kerevi as a huge risk he has not played for wasps and centre pairings take time.

On paper wasps take front row but in reality they lose.
BDP has been awful all year and has been 5th best hpoker in sa.

Likewise Wilson lacks form. Even with these issues I make it near even as wasps front row so much better on paper.

Second rows is Wasps weak unit big their experience keeps
Them in it.

Great backrow battle with Armitage the Weakest on display but still decent

Half backs saints

Ford a step up on cruden and Simpsons form levels Youngs who has been great for englahd but still has poor servicE.

Nonu and fofana world class but kerevi out of his depth and cannot understand why he has been played.

Back 3 even with wc players all over.

Great final between 2 great teams

Saints 27 - 25 Wasps

Wasps have slight form issues up front but it's a real even contest. Saints look the stronger in the 2nd row whilst the back row is an awesome battle with no outright winner. Give saints the slight advantage in the packs. I think wasps get on top at hb, whilst saints edge the centres, and they look stronger in the back three. I think saints have a bit more impact on the bench. A cracking final with two superb sides. Just think saints edge it slightly overall.

Saints 28-27 wasps

Can these remain open till tomorrow?

They have been doing, but I guess it's up to SJE.

Is it ok to do later SJE? What time are they open till?

Will leave open till tomorrow morning due to the bank holiday. Being a final prefer to get as many predictions in as possible

Northampton 26 - 25 Wasps

What a cracker! Two fine sides and a great contest. I see the scrum as an area where Wasps have a bit more about them but Wilson now starting to lose a bit of rating. Very little at the lineout or the breakdown. First time Chris has really had Burger and Pocock in form which is a big plus for them. A bit more for Wasps in the carrying stakes but not a lot .Half back pretty even in my eyes. Simpson simply electric of late with Youngs also in fine Nick. Both 10s playing well. Midfields exciting. Two risks on my eyes at 13. Two talents but Kerevi especially raw. Two best 12s in the world make it an exciting contest there. I prefer the Saints back 3 but Wasps no mugs. Both benches impressive bit prefer the impact offered by Saints and that brings them the narrowest win.

Saints 24-26 Wasps

Think Wasps take the scrum with the tactics of working on the tall tight heads, very slight edge to Saints at the line out. At the breakdown, the front 5s and flankers are very well matched, but I think Vermeulen offers more than Parisse these days and that will give Wasps the edge.

In the backs, fancy the Aarons to edge Ford and Simpson, both 12s are quality while the 13s are excellent attackers but could be got at in defence. Slight edge to Saints in the back 3

Comes down to tactics and breakdown for me, and with Saints willing to kick a lot of ball away I fancy Wasps game breakers to make one more play than their opposite numbers and that will probably swing this one. Great game

Northampton 21-23 Wasps

Cracking final with 2 very good teams.

Front row edges to Wasps with Mako not the greatest scrummager, although Wilson's lack of form numbs the advantage. Not much in the lock pairings but I'd fancy Saints to edge the line out with better options. Fantastic backrow battle, some immense players on show. Wasps have the slightly better balance with strong breakdown/tackling along with good carrying options. To be critical of Saints they do lack a go to man for carrying but it's still a good unit.

Good step at at 9 and 10 for Wasps with a better combo and better individuals, I do like Ford a lot but Simpson is a real weakness at this kind of level. Not much in the centre battle, both sides have an issue at 13 which weakens their defence. I think I prefer Saints back 3 although Bowe not the force his once was, Savea is the class act on show.

Fantastic game on paper with Wasps just edging the pack and half backs a step up in level. Wasps need a good 13 and 5  (but desperate for a decent 13) to fully control. For Saints 9 & 13 are the obvious weaknesses, especially 9. Saying that though, this is being picky as they're clearly 2 of the best sides in the league.

Some good impact from both benches and I think Wasps tactic of holding onto the ball works a bit better for their line up. I think if Saints had went for this option it could have been a slightly different game as they have the talented runners to pull it off, perhaps more so than Wasps.

Fantastic final but have to just shade with the pack and the quality at halfback for Wasps.

END OF NORMAL TIME:


Northampton Saints 26-26 London Wasps

How are we doing this SJE? In previous years we've put down what our team would be with replacements, and a brief 2-3 liner on tactics for the extra period. Are we doing the same this time?

That works for me Pete. If the two of ye get team sheets up I will update the thread.

For extra time we will have used all 8 replacements in the final quarter of normal time.

Wasps
Manager: Ozzy3213  
                   

01. Scott Sio	09. Aaron Smith
02. Tom Youngs	10. Aaron Cruden
03. Ben Alexander
04. Matt Symons	11. Bryan Habana
05. Sebastien Vahaamahina	12. Ma'a Nonu
06. Marcell Coetzee	13. Henry Slade
07. Steffon Armitage	14. Tim Nanai-Williams
08. Duane Vermeulen ©	15. Anthony Watson

Tactical variation

We will continue to play in a similar vein to how we have played for 80 minutes. We have however brought on Henry Slade at 13 for his additional kicking game, to ensure we don't get caught out if it's not on running it from deep. We will look to get the front row replacements carrying hard, Smith sniping at 9 and Watson looking to isolate tired legs in the Saints side.

Think Chris mentioned on London Welsh's page that he isn't going to be on for a few days ..

I saw Chris posted that yesterday, but he was last logged in at just before 10 this morning. i reckon he'll be on later.

Chris will be on at some stage. Happy to wait. Will get this weeks match thread up in the next half hour.

Am in Antigua at the moment with work, here's my team for extra time.

01. Thomas Domingo	09. Corbus Reinarch
02. Rob Webber	10. George Ford
03. Logi Mulipola
04. Samu Manoa	11. Julian Savea
05. Courtney Lawes	12. Matt Giteau
06. Schalk Burger	13. Manu Tuilagi
07. David Pocock(c)	14. Tommy Bowe
08. Billy Vunipola	15. Leigh Halfpenny(k)

Tactics:
While Wasps opted to carry a lot in normal time, we choose a less energy sapping kicking game and bring on Giteau in the midfield for his experience. Finals are decided by small margins and we will turn the screw in the set piece with our bench in both lineout and scrum, plus have more ball carrying options (Webber, Logi, Samoa, Vunipola) to put us in positions where Halfpenny's boot can prove decisive. In our backline we feel that we at least match Wasps attacking threat, so combination of less tired legs through tactical kicking in normal time, strong set piece and Halfpenny's boot will be telling.

Chris, two things. One, you lucky barsteward, bet it's warmer in Antigua ran it is here this morning. Two, I hadn't mentioned your team in my tactics, but as you've raised it, if we've been carrying loads, by extension you've had to be tackling loads, and I know which of those things is generally more tiring!

Really tough to read your side with that green!

Have changed the colour. Sides are up so predict away please

Saints 32 - 33 Wasps (After extra time)

I'd agree with Ozzy that a large amount of carries will have worn down the Saints pack throughout the game, but also think that Saints have some big impact carriers off the bench too.

Can see Coetzee and Youngs off the bench making a massive difference with their defence and rucking, and I wonder if Saints may regret not replacing either flanker given the work rate of the Wasps replacement forwards.

I'm going with my original prediction, and Wasps will win this one

What a game!

It's a nice green Steve...do see what you mean.

We'll be fine on the fitness front Pete, we have 5 fresh players in the pack, rested Lawes and Burger last week and Pocock played last 2-3 games

Did not everyone predict on the game first time up? Haven't had a chance to look through scores

Predictions are open leave the comments till afterwards now please

Is there going to be a cut off time for predos?

Saints 34 -32 Wasps

As stated in my predo, I think saints have a bit more impact from the bench, with arguably players better than in starting XV, and I think they take this in extra time.

Sorry didn't see Bams prediction there.

Good luck Pete (not too much), two teams clearly v evenly matched!

Will leave open till tomorrow morning to give everyone a chance to predict

Northampton 33 -32 London Wasps

I mentioned it in my predo but the impact Wasps have off the bench is exceptional. They have power and they have the experience and composure of Giteau to see them home.

Saints 34-31 Wasps

Saints better bench can them
Scoring to be 10 up coasting to victory and wasps scoring
To make it a 3 point game. Being able to bring on vunipola and gits etc is crucial

Saints 33-31 wasps
Feel the impact of the saints bench will help them sneak a win here. Great game and sorry I'm unable to give time at the moment for a full prediction.

Saints 35-34 Wasps

I understand points that Saints will be tired but I do like the impact they're able to bring on, especially in the forwards. Extra time is always close and I can see Halfpenny slotting a few over whilst Wasps don't really have that go to man. A fantastic final, I think I actually pefer the Saints lineup that is finishing the game to the one that started.

Result will be done at lunch time if anyone wants to get a prediction in

Saints 37-35 Wasps
Saints upping the tempo with more of a ball carrying game late on. Wasps flanks a bit fresher and compete at the breakdown well but feel Saints have enough impact to take this.

Saints 31 - 29 Wasps

RESULT AET:

Northampton Saints 37 (T:4 C:4 P:3)
London Wasps 32 (T:4 C:3 P:2)


BONUS:
Full: Matt, Steve, Luke, Pete, Bam, Chris, SJE & Pooly
Score: CJ & Fluxy
Fined: CJB

Congratulations Chris, unlucky Pete.

I think the benches swayed it in the end.

Thanks Pooly, was a very close game and looked like it was going with way in normal time.

Good game Pete, always a tough game playing against the tactical mastermind!!!

Well done mate. This is the one trophy that continues to elude me.