Glasgow Warriors v Ulster Rugby, 16 May

by **George Carlin** Mon May 11, 2015 9:30 am

Glasgow Warriors v Ulster Rugby
Saturday 16 May 2015
KO: 15:00
Chateau Soapdodger, Glasgow

Live on Sky Sports

Referee: Ian Davies (WRU, 31st competition game)
Assistant Referees: Neil Paterson, Sam Grove-White (both SRU)
Citing Commissioner: Paul Minto (SRU)
TMO: Jim Yuille (SRU)

A. Head to Head

25 Played 25
11 Wins 13
13 Losses 11
1 Draws 1
40 Tries 46
28 Conversions 31
62 Penalties 65
6 Drop Goals 0
460 Points 487
26 Avg. Age 27

B. Form

Sat 11 Oct 2014 - Ulster Rugby 29 - 9 Glasgow Warriors

Fri 18 Apr 2014 - Glasgow Warriors 27 - 9 Ulster Rugby

Fri 13 Sep 2013 - Ulster Rugby 12 - 13 Glasgow Warriors

C. Teams

Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors v Ulster Rugby, 16 May Amy_ma10

Glasgow Warriors v Ulster Rugby, 16 May Amy_ma10

15. Stuart Hogg
14. Tommy Seymour
13. Richie Vernon
12. Peter Horne
11. Sean Lamont
10. Finn Russell
9. Niko Matawalu

1. Ryan Grant
2. Dougie Hall
3. Rossouw de Klerk
4. Jonny Gray
5. Al Kellock (Captain)
6. Josh Strauss
7. Chris Fusaro
8. Adam Ashe

16. Pat MacArthur
17. Gordon Reid
18. Mike Cusack
19. Leone Nakarawa
20. Ryan Wilson
21. Henry Pyrgos
22. Duncan Weir
23. Peter Murchie

Ulster Rugby
Glasgow Warriors v Ulster Rugby, 16 May Kiera_10

Glasgow Warriors v Ulster Rugby, 16 May Kiera_10

(15-9): L Ludik; R Scholes, S Arnold, S McCloskey, M Allen, I Humphreys, P Marshall;

(1-8): A Warwick, R Herring, R Lutton, L Stevenson, F van der Merwe, C Ross, C Henry (C), R Diack

Replacements (16-23): R Best, K McCall, B Ross, I Henderson, R Wilson, R Pienaar, P Jackson, T Bowe.

by **George Carlin** Mon May 11, 2015 9:31 am

Eyes down for the big one. Bring it.

Kiera Chaplin (born in Belfast) and Amy Manson (born in, er, Scotland) are this week's team reps.

by funnyExiledScot Mon May 11, 2015 9:51 am

Two lovely choices my GC. I do hope Mrs GC never stumbles upon your search history!!

Time to deliver Glasgow. Tackling on the gain line would be a big step up from last week, and you'll need a fly half rather than Duncan Weir. Hopefully the conditions will be kinder to Naka and Mad Mata - both struggled about with the wet ball trying to play too expansively.

by cakeordeath Mon May 11, 2015 9:53 am

Don't want to be all doom and gloom, but can't see past an Ulster win. Glasgow are being held together with deep heat and bone spurs the players who are fit seem to be suffering also, given with their lackluster performances. Ulster are a physical side and we will have no answer for that

by funnyExiledScot Mon May 11, 2015 10:24 am

It's strange really given Toonie's rotation policy obsession that it's Glasgow rather than Edinburgh with the record number of sick notes.

That said, Edinburgh's players may be phycially signed-off to play, but they look completely out on their feet.

Nothing epitomises Glasgow's problems more than having to start Weir, Horne and Vernon instead of Russell, Dunbar and Bennett.

by Pete330v2 Mon May 11, 2015 10:33 am

cakeordeath wrote:Don't want to be all doom and gloom, but can't see past an Ulster win. Glasgow are being held together with deep heat and bone spurs the players who are fit seem to be suffering also, given with their lackluster performances. Ulster are a physical side and we will have no answer for that

I wouldn't be so down on your side COD, we also have a side held together with sticky tape and deep heat. Some of our key players such as Pienaar and Herbst need some time with their feet up and we'll likely be missing Wilson and Henderson in the back row due to a head injury and a suspension that will no doubt be dished out.
At least we all can have an air of expectancy about this match (unlike folk such as chunky who's only emotion left to feel about the Pro12 is schadenfreude).

by **George Carlin** Mon May 11, 2015 10:37 am

Whether the card was warranted or not (and I'm not getting into that one, Notch), it would help us a huge amount if Henderson was out - he was brilliant against Munster.

by Guest Mon May 11, 2015 10:46 am

Henderson won't be playing. The Citing panel aren't going to rule Nigel Owens wrong. My only hope is that the suspension is for 1 week.
Pienaar isn't 100% and should be rested. The same with Herbst. Gilroy might be recovered in time, but it might not be worth the risk playing him v Glasgow.
I'm not sure if Nelson will be recovered from his knock.

What about Scholes? Is he ready to play yet? I would have Scholes over Nelson.

by SecretFly Mon May 11, 2015 10:48 am

George Carlin wrote:Whether the card was warranted or not (and I'm not getting into that one, Notch), it would help us a huge amount if Henderson was out - he was brilliant against Munster.

What a slimy thing to say! We're all meant to be PC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Very sorry that the game will miss the inclusion of so good a player. We'd prefer play against him and lose rather than win with him not there.... Whistle

"

10/10 for lack of Sugar-coated Smarm, George Wink

by **George Carlin** Mon May 11, 2015 10:57 am

SecretFly wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Whether the card was warranted or not (and I'm not getting into that one, Notch), it would help us a huge amount if Henderson was out - he was brilliant against Munster.

What a slimy thing to say! We're all meant to be PC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Very sorry that the game will miss the inclusion of so good a player. We'd prefer play against him and lose rather than win with him not there.... "

10/10 for lack of Sugar-coated Smarm, George

Glasgow Warriors v Ulster Rugby, 16 May David_10

by jimbopip Mon May 11, 2015 4:20 pm

There's no point trying to predict a line up for Glasgow is there?
I foresee Toonie standing in the changing room making paper planes out of the , very large, pile of sick notes in front of him and launching the planes with his eyes firmly closed.
Anyone hit with a plane plays on Saturday.

by jimbopip Mon May 11, 2015 4:21 pm

Let's just hope the cleaner and the mascot are not still in the room at that point.

by funnyExiledScot Mon May 11, 2015 4:49 pm

jimbopip wrote:Let's just hope the cleaner and the mascot are not still in the room at that point.

Not to worry, I believe Al Kellock currently holds down both positions.

by **RDW** Mon May 11, 2015 7:47 pm

Game is a 10000 sell out clap

by The Great Aukster Mon May 11, 2015 9:18 pm

The chances of Ulster getting a home semi are very slim.

All the Ospreys have to do is win to get a home semi - very likely.
Munster need a TBP win to practically guarantee them a home semi - fairly likely.

Ulster need either Munster or the Ospreys to lose - very unlikely. Ulster also have to beat Glasgow away - fairly unlikely

In short Ulster should rest as many players as they can to give them an edge for an away semi.

by **Notch** Mon May 11, 2015 10:26 pm

I would back Ulster to have a good chance of beating Glasgow away with a full deck any time- it's not an easy game, but if we perform it should be a very close game- but if Henderson, Wilson and Williams are all out it's a completely different story. We can't settle for an away semi in case results elsewhere go in our favour, unlikely as it may seem. However this game seems 90% likely to be irrelevant bar deciding whether we are third or fourth, so thoughts naturally turn to the week after.

The only team I'm really worried about going away to in the semi-finals is Munster. Sure we might lose any away semi against any of these teams who are as good as us, but with the other two it's still going to be about 50/50. Munster would be closer to 55/45 in favour of the home team.

by VinceWLB Mon May 11, 2015 10:43 pm

I would say an away semi with a team on roughly the same level is 60-40 to the home side. Munster does look like the stronger team so 65-35 to them if they get a home semi.

by **George Carlin** Tue May 12, 2015 4:53 am

I do think that our Ulster brethren are either misunderstanding (or politely underselling) how duffed up the bum with injuries we are at the moment and how flat our key players are currently looking.

Imagine you were missing Bowe, Gilroy and your first choice centre pairing. Still confident your backs would be competitive?

I mean, I know Notch would be, but I'm speaking to the *normal* Ulster fans here. Wink

by **RDW** Tue May 12, 2015 7:40 am

Was gonna say - Glasgow are down to the bare bones in the backs.

Horne and Vernon are a big step down from Dunbar and Bennett, and if one of them gets injured they're screwed!

by funnyExiledScot Tue May 12, 2015 9:21 am

Is Russell fit for Glasgow? Weir was useless against the Ospreys and you can't afford to miss complete sitters like the penalty Weir missed in that game.

by Pete330v2 Tue May 12, 2015 10:06 am

I believe it would be in our best interests to rest players for the Weegies trip. Pienaar and Herbst are two that definately need a bit of pipe and slippers time. The fact is it's extremely unlikely that we'll have a home semi but we will have a little bit more incentive than other sides due to the final being at Raverspan. A win away to Glasgow would always be a golden win but in this case I wouldn't mind seeing a Ravens side travelling over. Wrapping players in cotton wool isn't something I'm a fan of but with our past injury luck we'd end up with a Ravens side for the playoffs.

by **Notch** Tue May 12, 2015 2:40 pm

VinceWLB wrote:I would say an away semi with a team on roughly the same level is 60-40 to the home side. Munster does look like the stronger team so 65-35 to them if they get a home semi.

In normal circumstances that may be true but when the crowd is 25% away fans and it's a one-off game, that tends to be a great leveller. Tends to be more down to experience and a Cup-final mentality. Slight advantage to the home side but not altogether forbidding.

by Don Alfonso Tue May 12, 2015 3:11 pm

George Carlin wrote:I do think that our Ulster brethren are either misunderstanding (or politely underselling) how duffed up the bum with injuries we are at the moment and how flat our key players are currently looking.

Imagine you were missing Bowe, Gilroy and your first choice centre pairing. Still confident your backs would be competitive?

I mean, I know Notch would be, but I'm speaking to the *normal* Ulster fans here.

Yeah, no worries. Missing Olding and Payne, Gilroy and Bowe.

Trimble - McCloskey - Cave - Allen.

Job's a good 'un.

"Look on our strength in depth in the backs, ye Mighty, and despair!"

by funnyExiledScot Tue May 12, 2015 3:21 pm

Don Alfonso wrote:
George Carlin wrote:I do think that our Ulster brethren are either misunderstanding (or politely underselling) how duffed up the bum with injuries we are at the moment and how flat our key players are currently looking.

Imagine you were missing Bowe, Gilroy and your first choice centre pairing. Still confident your backs would be competitive?

I mean, I know Notch would be, but I'm speaking to the *normal* Ulster fans here.

Yeah, no worries. Missing Olding and Payne, Gilroy and Bowe.

Trimble - McCloskey - Cave - Allen.

Job's a good 'un.

"Look on our strength in depth in the backs, ye Mighty, and despair!"

Is that the World Class back that will be moving to Edinburgh next season??

by Guest Tue May 12, 2015 3:25 pm

Very good player. I'm sorry to see him go, but can understand why. Embra won't be disappointed.

by Pete330v2 Tue May 12, 2015 3:32 pm

Well we'll know if Henderson will be on the squad tomorrow it seems. Will it be the usual season ending ban or will sanity prevail?

by Don Alfonso Tue May 12, 2015 3:33 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
Don Alfonso wrote:
George Carlin wrote:I do think that our Ulster brethren are either misunderstanding (or politely underselling) how duffed up the bum with injuries we are at the moment and how flat our key players are currently looking.

Imagine you were missing Bowe, Gilroy and your first choice centre pairing. Still confident your backs would be competitive?

I mean, I know Notch would be, but I'm speaking to the *normal* Ulster fans here.

Yeah, no worries. Missing Olding and Payne, Gilroy and Bowe.

Trimble - McCloskey - Cave - Allen.

Job's a good 'un.

"Look on our strength in depth in the backs, ye Mighty, and despair!"

Is that the World Class back that will be moving to Edinburgh next season??

Yeah, that's him. Very decent player - excellent back-up. Wing or centre. I think with a bit of consistent game-time, he could be a great option for Embra. Doubt he'll be good enough for international honours, though.

by funnyExiledScot Tue May 12, 2015 3:36 pm

Delighted to hear good things about him. Pleased as well that he's considered good cover at centre, which is where we could really use some additional support. Will Helu can also play both wing and 13 as well, so we ought to have some good options in the outside backs next year, in addition to the colossal Fijian winger we've just signed.

by Guest Tue May 12, 2015 3:49 pm

Pete330v2 wrote:Well we'll know if Henderson will be on the squad tomorrow it seems. Will it be the usual season ending ban or will sanity prevail?

All Welsh panel.... I'm hoping for no more than a 1 week ban but expecting 2/3.

by The Great Aukster Tue May 12, 2015 5:03 pm

George Carlin wrote:I do think that our Ulster brethren are either misunderstanding (or politely underselling) how duffed up the bum with injuries we are at the moment and how flat our key players are currently looking.

Imagine you were missing Bowe, Gilroy and your first choice centre pairing. Still confident your backs would be competitive?

I mean, I know Notch would be, but I'm speaking to the *normal* Ulster fans here.

For Glasgow three-quarters read Ulster Backrow. Ulster will be missing Wilson, Williams and Henderson, and Henry is only starting to back to match fitness. Diack has been carrying a niggle and there is no-one else to turn to.

Assume home advantage is 60:40 for two evenly matched sides.
Munster v Dragons are not two evenly matched sides as the Dragons have nothing to play for so that game has to be closer to 70:30.
Connacht v Ospreys are both playing for something and Connacht are at home but the Ospreys have momentum and only have to win to guarantee a home semi so say that match is 50:50.

Glasgow and Ulster have both stumbled and both have players missing, so they're fairly evenly matched so that game would be 60:40.

Therefore the odds of an Ulster win and an Ospreys loss are: 40% x 50% = 20% chance (at best) of Ulster getting a home semi final by fielding their best team. If they field a weakened team they will reduce their odds of winning the Glasgow game say to 70:30 but the chance would be still: 30% x 50% = 15%.

In other words the Ulster chance of gaining a home semi isn't dramatically reduced by fielding a weakened team. However resting players before the biggest game of the season would be a benefit without risking further injury in the match (even though Gilroy got injured in training).

by The Great Aukster Tue May 12, 2015 5:09 pm

Munchkin wrote:
Pete330v2 wrote:Well we'll know if Henderson will be on the squad tomorrow it seems. Will it be the usual season ending ban or will sanity prevail?

All Welsh panel.... I'm hoping for no more than a 1 week ban but expecting 2/3.

All Welsh panel... I'd expect a 2 week ban and an additional 16 weeks to teach him a lesson, reduced by two weeks because of previous exemplary record.

by Guest Tue May 12, 2015 5:41 pm

This is true, Aukster, but I was leaving myself room for outrage Very Happy

by clivemcl Wed May 13, 2015 10:48 am

Any of the Ulster boys on here familiar with Tyrone area?

I'm away for a weekend break with the wife, and the hotel doesn't have sky sports.

Dungannon to as far as Enniskillen - anyone know of any sports bars???

Is there not like an app or something to find Sky Sports venues?

by clivemcl Wed May 13, 2015 10:50 am

Answered my own question!

This is useful!

https://pubfinder.sky.com/

by **George Carlin** Wed May 13, 2015 10:58 am

The Great Aukster wrote:
George Carlin wrote:I do think that our Ulster brethren are either misunderstanding (or politely underselling) how duffed up the bum with injuries we are at the moment and how flat our key players are currently looking.

Imagine you were missing Bowe, Gilroy and your first choice centre pairing. Still confident your backs would be competitive?

I mean, I know Notch would be, but I'm speaking to the *normal* Ulster fans here.

For Glasgow three-quarters read Ulster Backrow. Ulster will be missing Wilson, Williams and Henderson, and Henry is only starting to back to match fitness. Diack has been carrying a niggle and there is no-one else to turn to.

Assume home advantage is 60:40 for two evenly matched sides.
Munster v Dragons are not two evenly matched sides as the Dragons have nothing to play for so that game has to be closer to 70:30.
Connacht v Ospreys are both playing for something and Connacht are at home but the Ospreys have momentum and only have to win to guarantee a home semi so say that match is 50:50.

Glasgow and Ulster have both stumbled and both have players missing, so they're fairly evenly matched so that game would be 60:40.

Therefore the odds of an Ulster win and an Ospreys loss are: 40% x 50% = 20% chance (at best) of Ulster getting a home semi final by fielding their best team. If they field a weakened team they will reduce their odds of winning the Glasgow game say to 70:30 but the chance would be still: 30% x 50% = 15%.

In other words the Ulster chance of gaining a home semi isn't dramatically reduced by fielding a weakened team. However resting players before the biggest game of the season would be a benefit without risking further injury in the match (even though Gilroy got injured in training).

I really didn't follow any of that, but yet found it completely convincing.

by **rodders** Wed May 13, 2015 11:02 am

clivemcl wrote:Answered my own question!

This is useful!

https://pubfinder.sky.com/

You find anywhere? I'd be amazed if there was nowhere in Dungannon or Enniskillen (which is Fermanagh btw Wink

where you could watch it).

by funnyExiledScot Wed May 13, 2015 11:04 am

George Carlin wrote:
The Great Aukster wrote:
George Carlin wrote:I do think that our Ulster brethren are either misunderstanding (or politely underselling) how duffed up the bum with injuries we are at the moment and how flat our key players are currently looking.

Imagine you were missing Bowe, Gilroy and your first choice centre pairing. Still confident your backs would be competitive?

I mean, I know Notch would be, but I'm speaking to the *normal* Ulster fans here.

For Glasgow three-quarters read Ulster Backrow. Ulster will be missing Wilson, Williams and Henderson, and Henry is only starting to back to match fitness. Diack has been carrying a niggle and there is no-one else to turn to.

Assume home advantage is 60:40 for two evenly matched sides.
Munster v Dragons are not two evenly matched sides as the Dragons have nothing to play for so that game has to be closer to 70:30.
Connacht v Ospreys are both playing for something and Connacht are at home but the Ospreys have momentum and only have to win to guarantee a home semi so say that match is 50:50.

Glasgow and Ulster have both stumbled and both have players missing, so they're fairly evenly matched so that game would be 60:40.

Therefore the odds of an Ulster win and an Ospreys loss are: 40% x 50% = 20% chance (at best) of Ulster getting a home semi final by fielding their best team. If they field a weakened team they will reduce their odds of winning the Glasgow game say to 70:30 but the chance would be still: 30% x 50% = 15%.

In other words the Ulster chance of gaining a home semi isn't dramatically reduced by fielding a weakened team. However resting players before the biggest game of the season would be a benefit without risking further injury in the match (even though Gilroy got injured in training).
I really didn't follow any of that, but yet found it completely convincing.

Me too......

by Pete330v2 Wed May 13, 2015 11:06 am

clivemcl wrote:Answered my own question!

This is useful!

https://pubfinder.sky.com/

My deepest sympathy for you havinf to stay in Tyrone Wink

Dungannon's a big rugby town so most bars would no doubt have the match, for that matter Dungannon rugby club would be as good a venue as any.
Enniskillen has more pubs than you could shake a stick at so you'd have no problem landing in one with the match on.

I can only imagine that app would only list pubs that officially have sky sports Wink

by neilthom7 Wed May 13, 2015 11:31 am

Pete330v2 wrote:
clivemcl wrote:Answered my own question!

This is useful!

https://pubfinder.sky.com/

My deepest sympathy for you havinf to stay in Tyrone

Dungannon's a big rugby town so most bars would no doubt have the match, for that matter Dungannon rugby club would be as good a venue as any.
Enniskillen has more pubs than you could shake a stick at so you'd have no problem landing in one with the match on.

I can only imagine that app would only list pubs that officially have sky sports

Are you trying to say that some tyrone pubs are dishonest and have illegal Sky Sports Pete? Because I'm originally from tyrone and have to say how dare you, how dare you..... speak the truth

by **rodders** Wed May 13, 2015 11:34 am

Enniskillen is in FERMANAGH!!!

by clivemcl Wed May 13, 2015 11:36 am

neilthom7 wrote:
Pete330v2 wrote:
clivemcl wrote:Answered my own question!

This is useful!

https://pubfinder.sky.com/

My deepest sympathy for you havinf to stay in Tyrone

Dungannon's a big rugby town so most bars would no doubt have the match, for that matter Dungannon rugby club would be as good a venue as any.
Enniskillen has more pubs than you could shake a stick at so you'd have no problem landing in one with the match on.

I can only imagine that app would only list pubs that officially have sky sports

Are you trying to say that some tyrone pubs are dishonest and have illegal Sky Sports Pete? Because I'm originally from tyrone and have to say how dare you, how dare you..... speak the truth

I decided to ring a few places to ask. Funny - there always seemed to be a slight pause followed by a 'no'.

by clivemcl Wed May 13, 2015 11:38 am

Best case scenario is that the hotel's wifi is actually good and I'll just bring my android box and plug it to the TV...

and then do something totally legal in order to watch Sky Sports Whistle

by **rodders** Wed May 13, 2015 11:43 am

Or you could just log in to skygo?

by Pete330v2 Wed May 13, 2015 11:43 am

Neil if the Tyrone pubs weren't doing things illegally I'd be very disappointed in them, very disappointed indeed. I'd say there's more than a few dreamboxes floating about Tyrone and Fermanagh.

by neilthom7 Wed May 13, 2015 11:59 am

Anyone have a list of places doing it and I swear I don't want it just because I work for Sky Whistle

by jimbopip Wed May 13, 2015 12:06 pm

Pete, you make me feel I'm living in a cave in the outer Hebrides: what the fecc are Dreamboxes?
Also I can't get up to Glasgow this week, herself would rather spend money on food apparently, and we cancelled Sky sports some time ago. PM me please. Go on, go on go on.

by Pete330v2 Wed May 13, 2015 12:41 pm

PM on it's way Jimbo

by Guest Wed May 13, 2015 2:14 pm

Henderson will not face ban after red card
"The Ulster player was sent off against Munster at the weekend

Ireland and Ulster star Iain Henderson will not face further sanction after last weeks red card against Munster.

He appeared today before an independent Pro12 Rugby Disciplinary Committee after being sent off.

The Disciplinary Committee, chaired by Roger Morris, along with Rhian Williams and Ray Wilton decided that the act did not warrant a red card.

Having viewed the incident in close-up, the Disciplinary Committee concluded that the player's initial contact with his opponent had not in fact been with his head but with his arm.

The Disciplinary Committee imposed no sanction on the player, who is free to resume playing immediately.

Henderson will now be eligible to play in Ulster's final league game of the season along with their play off campaign."

by Guest Wed May 13, 2015 2:16 pm

Woohoo

Who would have thunk it Very Happy

by funnyExiledScot Wed May 13, 2015 2:17 pm

Not good news for the soap dodgers!

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