The EU Referendum - Thursday 23 June (with voting poll)

First topic message reminder :

Now it is official (and some guy with a green admin name has ruined the other thread) I shall put this here for you to discuss the referendum.

Hero wrote:

And that's where Duty's turnout comments come into play.

Basically a bunch of bigoted quasi-racist old muppets are trying to march the future generations of this country into something they don't want.

Coxy001 wrote:Had an interesting conversation with a few of us over a beer yesterday. The "leave" voters are generally in the C/D demographic bracket, basically meaning that they're the stupid people of society who didn't try at school and as such look to blame everything and anyone for why they're not richer.

I don't agree with you = you must be stupid.

Have to try harder than that, my dear fellow.

Latest poll:

Remain: 43% (-1)
Leave: 48% (+1)
(via ICM, online / 03 - 05 Jun)

Leave has plummeted to 2/1 to win, and going up towards a 33% chance on Betfair. The polling seems to indicate this is a sustained switch to Leave, rather than some Bank Holiday madness.

The referendum is pretty much turning out how I thought it would. Britain Stronger in Europe are snookered, as their campaign is not designed to win over voters from the Leave side.

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:Had an interesting conversation with a few of us over a beer yesterday. The "leave" voters are generally in the C/D demographic bracket, basically meaning that they're the stupid people of society who didn't try at school and as such look to blame everything and anyone for why they're not richer.

I don't agree with you = you must be stupid.

Have to try harder than that, my dear fellow.

Either you're over 60 or you're part of the C/D demographic of stupid people. Take your pick.

Coxy001 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:Had an interesting conversation with a few of us over a beer yesterday. The "leave" voters are generally in the C/D demographic bracket, basically meaning that they're the stupid people of society who didn't try at school and as such look to blame everything and anyone for why they're not richer.

I don't agree with you = you must be stupid.

Have to try harder than that, my dear fellow.

Either you're over 60 or you're part of the C/D demographic of stupid people. Take your pick.

Isn't C1 lower-middle class? Rather different from D, which is unskilled labour.

Anyway, 39% of the 'ABC1' group are voting Leave, according to the latest YouGov survey.

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:Had an interesting conversation with a few of us over a beer yesterday. The "leave" voters are generally in the C/D demographic bracket, basically meaning that they're the stupid people of society who didn't try at school and as such look to blame everything and anyone for why they're not richer.

I don't agree with you = you must be stupid.

Have to try harder than that, my dear fellow.

Either you're over 60 or you're part of the C/D demographic of stupid people. Take your pick.

Isn't C1 lower-middle class? Rather different from D, which is unskilled labour.

Anyway, 39% of the 'ABC1' group are voting Leave, according to the latest YouGov survey.

From the same survey:

Only 15% of leave voters have a degree compared to 37% who do.

in summary, younger, middle class, graduates tend to be pro-EU, older, working class, less well educated people tend to be anti-EU.

And I'm sure you're more than able to find the snippet where C1/D1 (lower middle class and working class) make up the majority of those wanting to leave.

So in summary, stupid people are voting to leave. Old stupid people.

Isn't it rather easy to suggest that working class (and lower middle class) = stupid? I happen to agree that voting to Leave is a particularly stupid thing to do, but that strikes me as a rather silly and unsubstantiated thing to say.

Also, there would be a rather delicious irony if Cameron's efforts to stop young people from voting (since they don't tend to vote Conservative) ends up costing him his job as they are equally unable to vote to remain in the EU...

Coxy001 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:Had an interesting conversation with a few of us over a beer yesterday. The "leave" voters are generally in the C/D demographic bracket, basically meaning that they're the stupid people of society who didn't try at school and as such look to blame everything and anyone for why they're not richer.

I don't agree with you = you must be stupid.

Have to try harder than that, my dear fellow.

Either you're over 60 or you're part of the C/D demographic of stupid people. Take your pick.

Isn't C1 lower-middle class? Rather different from D, which is unskilled labour.

Anyway, 39% of the 'ABC1' group are voting Leave, according to the latest YouGov survey.

From the same survey:

Only 15% of leave voters have a degree compared to 37% who do.

in summary, younger, middle class, graduates tend to be pro-EU, older, working class, less well educated people tend to be anti-EU.

And I'm sure you're more than able to find the snippet where C1/D1 (lower middle class and working class) make up the majority of those wanting to leave.

So in summary, stupid people are voting to leave. Old stupid people.

That's more down to the age split.

Folk under 35, who are more pro-EU in general, would have been in their late teens/early 20s in a time when the aim was to get 50% of children to University; whereas people who are older than 35 would have been in their late teens-early 20s in a time when University was highly selective/harder to get into.

Just because a person may have done media studies at the University of Bedfordshire, instead of an apprenticeship (for instance), doesn't actually make them 'smarter' or 'better-educated'.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:Isn't it rather easy to suggest that working class (and lower middle class) = stupid? I happen to agree that voting to Leave is a particularly stupid thing to do, but that strikes me as a rather silly and unsubstantiated thing to say.

Also, there would be a rather delicious irony if Cameron's efforts to stop young people from voting (since they don't tend to vote Conservative) ends up costing him his job as they are equally unable to vote to remain in the EU...

I think it's more the case that those working class (when correctly defined) are more likely to vote leave due to non-malignant bigotry - i.e. they tend to be affected most by European (particularly EE) semi-skilled labour competing for work. Only guy on my facebook that's vociferously LEAVE is a sparky and he's always complaining that the majority of site workers are all EE these days, making it harder to get work etc etc.

The Leave party are bringing out the big guns now to endorse the campaign...Keith Chegwin.

Rowley wrote:

guildfordbat wrote:Yes, Corporal. I buy that.

Meanwhile, a major weakness for me is that neither camp has made clear - or even commented upon as far as I'm aware - the impact of leaving the EC upon Kolpak players in the County Championship. A major concern in Lancashire, I would have thought.

I'm a Villa fan, if an exit means the glut of French players we have currently will be forced to return to their home country reserve me a place on the stage next to Farage and Galloway.

Sadly for you, whatever the outcome, the English ones will probably stay....

Hero wrote:The Leave party are bringing out the big guns now to endorse the campaign...Keith Chegwin.

And Remain are bringing out this bizarre chap:

http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-eu-staffer-tweets-eu-referendum-propaganda-fakes-name-deletes-account/

Hero wrote:The Leave party are bringing out the big guns now to endorse the campaign...Keith Chegwin.

Everything is wrong with the Leave campaign. But much like the Daily Mail website (perfect parallel) it has shocking success...

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Hero wrote:The Leave party are bringing out the big guns now to endorse the campaign...Keith Chegwin.

Everything is wrong with the Leave campaign.  But much like the Daily Mail website (perfect parallel) it has shocking success...

Are you forgetting how atrocious the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign is?

For my money "Remain" represents the lesser of two evils. Whilst I am a supporter of the EU in principle and truly believe that it has been an engine for stability (relatively speaking) and free trade in Europe, it has not been without its failures. The single currency experiment has some fundamental flaws, and there's no doubt that the EU has grown too many arms and legs, with powers touching upon some real minutae that ought to be reserved for Member States.

Still, the proposition that we "Leave" is not attractive. The short term economic pain is undeniable (the markets will hate it and the banks are predicting a 20% - 30% fall in the value of Sterling), and the behaviour of the EU towards us will not, in my view, be positive. The EU will not want this to become a precedent, as it threatens the viability of the whole structure. Countries like Norway and Switzerland who have genuine free trade models that we could aspire to also have to contribute towards the budget and, lest we not forget, sign up to Schengen in all its glory. Gus O'Donnell, the wise old bird of the Civil Service, also suggests that whilst two years to unpick us from the EU may be realistic, the negotiations around all the treaties etc we will require (not just with the EU but the rest of the world as well - remember that we currently rely on EU treaties in this regard) could take as long as 8-10 years. That's a long time for trade to be affected/tariffs to be imposed. Businesses do not tend to thrive on such uncertainty. He also notes that the UK doesn't have the skills currently to negotiate such matters - that's currently handled exclusively by those "bloated Brussels bureaucrats" that Farage seems to hate so much. Truth is, we'd probably need to hire quite a few of them just so that we appear to know a little bit of what we are doing during these extensive negotiations.

All in all it's a pretty clear "Remain" for me. That said, the SNP are supporting "Remain" so there must be something wrong with the proposition that I'm missing.....

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Hero wrote:The Leave party are bringing out the big guns now to endorse the campaign...Keith Chegwin.

Everything is wrong with the Leave campaign.  But much like the Daily Mail website (perfect parallel) it has shocking success...

Are you forgetting how atrocious the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign is?

But still not AS bad. Leave is a national embarrassment. So clearly made up and solely focussed on exploiting bigotry and latent racism.

Hence why its major supporters are:

Don Trump
Katie Hopkins
Vlad the Impaler Putin
Etc

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Hero wrote:The Leave party are bringing out the big guns now to endorse the campaign...Keith Chegwin.

Everything is wrong with the Leave campaign.  But much like the Daily Mail website (perfect parallel) it has shocking success...

Are you forgetting how atrocious the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign is?

But still not AS bad.  Leave is a national embarrassment.  So clearly made up and solely focussed on exploiting bigotry and latent racism.

Hence why its major supporters are:

Don Trump
Katie Hopkins
Vlad the Impaler Putin
Etc

What 'racism' is Leave indulging in? Wanting fairer immigration?

And no, not 'AS bad', but far, far worse. Hence why the strong Remain lead has completely evaporated.

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Don Trump
Katie Hopkins
Vlad the Impaler Putin
Etc

You got to admit, an interesting dinner party. Now stand up the grey men of the Stay campaign. Major, Brown, Obama (half heartedly) Osbourne.

We all know which one you'd all prefer to attend. Cheggers plays Pop.

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48% (-3)
Leave: 47% (+1)
(via ORB, phone)

It was a thirteen point lead, just two weeks ago!

Duty281 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Makes it a 50-50 race - http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

Though there is, apparently, going to be another poll released tomorrow which will show Leave in the lead.

There were two, in actual fact. But one is quite outdated. This is the relevant one:

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 41% (-)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via YouGov)
Chgs. from 30 - 31 May.

How dare they not let me enjoy my moment!

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 43% (+2)
Leave: 42% (-3)
(via YouGov)

It does certainly look like it's going down to the wire.

Im voting out mainly cos i do not care Plus being in so far hasn't been promising for us so no harm in trying something different

#Don'tBeScotlandFolks.

Maybe do some research?

no point they all lie out their asses anyway. People claim stuff the other side called BS and it rolls on.

The question is do people trust David Cameron any more? The amount of times his lied about basic things, i doubt it and i think it may push alot of unsure voters towards leave.

Fernando wrote:no point they all lie out their asses anyway. People claim stuff the other side called BS and it rolls on.

The question is do people trust David Cameron any more? The amount of times his lied about basic things, i doubt it and i think it may push alot of unsure voters towards leave.

No point in learning about anything is there? The books are probably full of lies and there's nothing worth learning in them anyway. Live in ignorance I say.

Fernando wrote:no point they all lie out their asses anyway. People claim stuff the other side called BS and it rolls on.

The question is do people trust David Cameron any more? The amount of times his lied about basic things, i doubt it and i think it may push alot of unsure voters towards leave.

If you don't trust Cameron don't vote Tory, nothing to do with with referendum.

All major party leaders are backing remain, not just Cameron.

Fernando wrote:Im voting out mainly cos i do not care Plus being in so far hasn't been promising for us so no harm in trying something different

#Don'tBeScotlandFolks.

Here we have exhibit a: Stupid end of the C1/C2/D1 scale.

I'm always  little baffled when folk saying being in has been a disaster or not great. Most of us are of an age where we have not known life outside the EU I'd guess. We've all grown up in a country with free healthcare, free education, if you're genuinely motivated to find them employment and career opportunities, you will. If you work you'll be able to buy a house and have some degree of leisure opportunities and to be able to save a bit for your old age. Have we really had it so bad in the EU?

Duty281 wrote:EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48% (-3)
Leave: 47% (+1)
(via ORB, phone)

It was a thirteen point lead, just two weeks ago!

All very similar to the Scottish indepedence ref. Hopefully the outcome will be the same as well, with the electorate seeing sense on the day!

Agreed, by all means say if you think we'd be better out and give reasons why but to say we've done badly in is nonsense.

Duty281 wrote:EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48% (-3)
Leave: 47% (+1)
(via ORB, phone)

It was a thirteen point lead, just two weeks ago!

Would probably add the caveat that the above figure involves only those who are 100% definitely going to vote.

Duty, I'll explain it to you again - there are still swathes of people who are either undecided or who will change their mind like the wind. I would probably hazard a guess and say that the final result will be something like 55-45 in favour of remain. History points us to such voters reverting to the safe status quo. If leave does in indeed win then am safe in the knowledge that having got an aussie missus I'll be able to swan away to sunnier economic climates

I find your mocking of the remain campaign pretty amusing. Your very owni campaign leader has been quoted many times of the benefits of being in the EU, which you have zero comeback to - do you? They are spouting such blatant lies it's scary and have yet to set out any ecomomic plan based on facts and figures other than "the £350m we send a week (bullsh*t figure as disproven) we can get back and spend on other things".. even though that is something like 0.3% of our total fiscal spend. 0.3% - do you hear that correctly?!?!?!?

The remain campaign has hardly been a sea of optimism, but at least they have had the Treasury chip in with reports and have 9/10 economists forecasting doom/IMF/and a load of other big economic/financial institutions backing the things they've been saying - you've got erm, erm, erm, erm, openeurope?! Some insignificant "who the f*ck are they" group in not only comparison but by definition.

You and your campaign have no economic credibility. Norman Lamont, the guy who oversaw Black Wednesday, highlights the sort of acumen you guys have coming up with your make believe bullcrap.

Roll on the 23rd and then we can get on with our lives. Only yours will be one full of misery inside 2 years whilst the rest of us jump ship.

9pm tonight by the way for Cameron and Farage. Am seriously looking forwards to the latter ending up losing it with a profanity laced slew that pretty much exposes him as nothing more than a bigoted racist, one who doens't mind white europeans but one who hates any ethnic minority.

Fernando wrote:no point they all lie out their asses anyway. People claim stuff the other side called BS and it rolls on.

The question is do people trust David Cameron any more? The amount of times his lied about basic things, i doubt it and i think it may push alot of unsure voters towards leave.

Take DC out the equation and form an opinion based on the hoard of other respectable individuals that have back one side or the other....

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Duty281 wrote:EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48% (-3)
Leave: 47% (+1)
(via ORB, phone)

It was a thirteen point lead, just two weeks ago!

All very similar to the Scottish indepedence ref. Hopefully the outcome will be the same as well, with the electorate seeing sense on the day!

I'll say it again - totally different to the Scottish Independence referendum. There have been more polls in the last week showing the independence side winning, than the entirety of the Scottish referendum campaign.

Coxy001 wrote:9pm tonight by the way for Cameron and Farage. Am seriously looking forwards to the latter ending up losing it with a profanity laced slew that pretty much exposes him as nothing more than a bigoted racist, one who doens't mind white europeans but one who hates any ethnic minority.

Channel??

Duty281 wrote:

funnyExiledScot wrote:

Duty281 wrote:EU referendum poll:
Remain: 48% (-3)
Leave: 47% (+1)
(via ORB, phone)

It was a thirteen point lead, just two weeks ago!

All very similar to the Scottish indepedence ref. Hopefully the outcome will be the same as well, with the electorate seeing sense on the day!

I'll say it again - totally different to the Scottish Independence referendum. There have been more polls in the last week showing the independence side winning, than the entirety of the Scottish referendum campaign.

I meant the similarity of the Remain having a strong lead initially with that lead being whittled down to neck and neck with weeks to go. The Leave campaign pointing towards the polls as evidence that they are "winning the argument", the Remain campaign lacking inspiration, the demographics showing a clear split between those with formal education and those without, the Leave campaign appealling to the heart, the Remain campaign appealling to the head, the Leave campaign being fronted by "fun" populist politicians such as Johnson and Farage (see Alex Salmond), with the Remain campaign having a tinge of the dull and sensible with Cameron, Major and Osborne (see Darling).

So, not "totally different" really and quite a few parallels to be drawn.

Coxy001 wrote:9pm tonight by the way for Cameron and Farage. Am seriously looking forwards to the latter ending up losing it with a profanity laced slew that pretty much exposes him as nothing more than a bigoted racist, one who doens't mind white europeans but one who hates any ethnic minority.

It's astonishing that you mock other people's (perceived) levels of intellect, when you make extraordinarily dumb statements like that.

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:9pm tonight by the way for Cameron and Farage. Am seriously looking forwards to the latter ending up losing it with a profanity laced slew that pretty much exposes him as nothing more than a bigoted racist, one who doens't mind white europeans but one who hates any ethnic minority.

Channel??

ITV 1. Not a debate, though, Cameron is too frightened to engage in one.

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:9pm tonight by the way for Cameron and Farage. Am seriously looking forwards to the latter ending up losing it with a profanity laced slew that pretty much exposes him as nothing more than a bigoted racist, one who doens't mind white europeans but one who hates any ethnic minority.

It's astonishing that you mock other people's (perceived) levels of intellect, when you make extraordinarily dumb statements like that.

Cameron should be very wary of Farage, and should take note of the Farage vs Clegg debate which did not end well for the pro-Europeans (and Clegg is a far brighter and more accomplished debater than Cameron).

The danger is this: Farage is a master of simplistic politics and the soudbite. He can take what is a very complex problem and distill it down to a short black and white scenario, and this plays very well on TV and with his voters. The case for staying in the EU is harder to make without some explanation, but even harder to make with Farage barking for "yes/no" answers to simple questions like "Can you stay in the EU and control immigration?". Answers which start "No, but..." are tricky to deliver, particularly if 50%+ of the studio audience get on top of you (re--watch the second TV debate on the Scottish ref if you want to see a great example of what I'm referring to - Salmond actually interrupted Darling mid-flow by shouting "Team Scotland" and the audience went nuts).

Cameron is in for a tough night, no question. Truth is though I don't think these TV debates make a huge different unless one side truly implodes, which I don't see happening. Whilst I know the polls disagree with me, I actually think the number of true "undecideds" is relatively small - people often say they haven't made up their minds to avoid being drawn on the subject or having to justify a position, when in fact I think the vast majority will know which box they plan to tick, and I very much doubt Cameron or Farage will sway many people on TV.

Cameron is right to avoid a debate - for the reasons stated above.

Duty281 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:9pm tonight by the way for Cameron and Farage. Am seriously looking forwards to the latter ending up losing it with a profanity laced slew that pretty much exposes him as nothing more than a bigoted racist, one who doens't mind white europeans but one who hates any ethnic minority.

It's astonishing that you mock other people's (perceived) levels of intellect, when you make extraordinarily dumb statements like that.

Nigel Farage isn't some buffling baffoon who comes out with the odd jokey quote, he says what he means.

Nigel Farage has openly said (and been filmed saying) that he would abolish any discriminatory laws.. mainly pertaining to employment and whether a business can reject an applicant because of colour and race.

In Ukip-land there would be no law against discrimination on the grounds of nationality. Would there be a law against discrimination on the grounds or race or colour?”

“No,” Nigel Farage responds.

And that's on video.

It's one to insult anothers intelligence, it's another to be ignorant to the facts behind what they've originally said simply because you shove a big purple UKIP rubber schlong up your arse.

Duty281 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

Coxy001 wrote:9pm tonight by the way for Cameron and Farage. Am seriously looking forwards to the latter ending up losing it with a profanity laced slew that pretty much exposes him as nothing more than a bigoted racist, one who doens't mind white europeans but one who hates any ethnic minority.

Channel??

ITV 1. Not a debate, though, Cameron is too frightened to engage in one.

Lol this balls again

Fernando wrote:Im voting out mainly cos i do not care Plus being in so far hasn't been promising for us so no harm in trying something different

#Don'tBeScotlandFolks.

I know I'm not the first to say it, but that really is a feeble rationale for voting for EU exit.  It's a completely different situation from a general election where - at times in recent past - there may not have been much of a different policy outcome as between voting for a somewhat right wing Labour party or the Tories.  A decision to leave the EU is likely to have a number of fundamental and long lasting impacts, on a range of issues like the single market, economic growth, employment protection, the environment, immigration or whatever.  OK you have to weigh up the rival claims and counter claims on these issues, but it is a pretty feeble simply to opt out of thinking about these issues.  

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:

Fernando wrote:Im voting out mainly cos i do not care Plus being in so far hasn't been promising for us so no harm in trying something different

#Don'tBeScotlandFolks.

I know I'm not the first to say it, but that really is a feeble rationale for voting for EU exit.  OK you have to weigh up the rival claims and counter claims on these issues, but it is a pretty feeble simply to opt out of thinking about these issues.  

Some call it instinct. Sometimes if you don't have the time to read all the brochures and look at all the pie-charts and listen to all the debates - sometimes you just trust your instincts. That happens many many times through a normal lifespan...

Instincts often keep you alive when stopping to consider might drop you into deep deep trouble.

Why is it that his lack of 'caring' about it still leads him to decide to vote 'Leave' rather than just staying away from the booths? Instinct?

Can someone who's for Leave explain to me why would it be a good thing to 'dump' the European Convention of Human Rights?

Hero wrote:Can someone who's for Leave explain to me why would it be a good thing to 'dump' the European Convention of Human Rights?

Am not Leave but an onbvious security benefit would be greater control over the movements/deportation of non-citizen but resident major criminals & terrorists.

ECHR runs roughshod over sovereign criminal matters in an appalling manner than fans the flames of BoJo etc's rhetoric.

Patrick Stewart provides a better view on it than me...

Duty281 wrote:Anyway, 39% of the 'ABC1' group are voting Leave, according to the latest YouGov survey.

I fall in the 'A' category, and will be voting to leave. For three reasons:

1. Immigration. London is taking the brunt of this and I'm sick of it.
2. Scotland. Sturgeon wants to remain? That's a guaranteed Leave vote here. The Scots REALLY should have seen this referendum coming and chosen independence. Now they're going to be stuck with the rest of the UK, outside of Europe. Lose-lose for them.
3. Cameron and Corbyn. If these guys both think we should remain, that shows me that leave is the correct vote.

The last recession was excellent for me. I bought a house dirt cheap and have only a handful of years left on the mortgage. Will be done by the time I'm 40. Kids will have better schools, as there will be a big drop off in children with English as a second language (fully half of my son's class speak Polish or Lithuanian as a first language, and it makes teaching impossible), and our Health Service will be better run as we need less and less translators to actually run the blooming thing (or we could switch the translators to speaking 'Doctor-ese' and work out whatever the hell those guys are saying to us!).

We came through the worst recession in 70 years. We can easily see off any potential recession here.

Hero wrote:Can someone who's for Leave explain to me why would it be a good thing to 'dump' the European Convention of Human Rights?

We can torture whomsoever we want?

Yes, the argument goes that the ECHR is primarily a haven for criminals and terrorists who, accordingly to Trump et al, shouldn't be afforded human rights, and that protracted cases brought under human rights legislation, mis-interpreted and poorly handled in the European courts, costs the UK taxpayer a fortune when all we need to do is stick them in a dungeon and throw away the key or, better still, extradite them somewhere nasty and make them someone else's problem. It's basically the Abu Qatada example.

Worth noting that this isn't solely part of the EU ref debate. Scrapping the ECHR in favour of a British equivalent is actually Tory policy, trumpeted by Theresa May.