PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

Better late than never (not really sure about that), but this was clearly meant to be posted yesterday!

1).The API (Arnold Palmer Invitational) is underway at Bay Hill and once again a PGA Tour field is being subsidised by "internationals", with Rickie Fowler the only American ranked among the Top Ten, in owgr placings, in the field. That's the third Florida event in that category, and Rickie is some kind of honorary host. No matter, this will all be overlooked as the resurgent Tiger is back to work for his fourth tournament in five weeks - wonder when that last happened?!

2).Tiger Woods looked very, very good I thought in runnering up at last week's "Valspar", though still not sure why the iron off the 72nd tee. But Poulter got similar grief at last year's Players on his way to a second place finish. Would've said Poults had a lot more on the line than Woods, but all good grist for the discussion mill.

3).Having said all that, WELL DONE Paul Casey. I still think he has the most talent of his generation of English golfers, still think he struts about like a prat with the ever-present supercilious grin, but WELL DONE Paul Casey.
He's never let anyone down in Ryder Cup play and was one of the few bright spots in sirnick's Ryder Cup losing team - imagine Thomas Bjorn was thrilled to see his performance, and has likely been telling him that his return to European Tour membership made all the difference.
Now, Paul, you've got to go out and win from the front, or at least the final group or two. Quite OK if you do that at The Masters.

4).Brandt Snedeker must be heartily sick of the sight of Mr.Woods. NBC TV offered a stat which showed Sneds had been grouped w/Tiger something like 14 times and had never had the better round, head-to-head. And Snedeker's meltdown on Sunday cost him a place in the WGC-MatchPlay, and severely jeopardised his chances of qualifying for Augusta, a tournament he'd love to be in. But that got me to thinking (never a good thing):

5).Possibly the only time that Woods has been out of his competitive comfort zone this season was at Riviera when he was grouped for 36 holes with Thomas & McIlroy. Imagine they, all three of 'em, wanted to one-up the other, hit it farther, make more birds, get the crowd going - and they all fell pretty flat.
Otherwise Tiger has been grouped with arguably friendly fire, Snedeker especially. Dufner, Reed & Hoffman, Spieth and Tiger's mate Stenson; though when he had Hideki for company he only managed an even par 72. Off with the always competitive Jason Day today so we'll see.

6).But what about this stat?
NBC also noted that Spieth has already suffered more PGA Tour cuts in his career than Tiger Woods.
So: At the risk of being ott arcane, I looked at the bare data of leading Tour players who had played at least 100 events (so excluding Rahm & Koepka) and this is what it shows:

Tiger: Played 332 events, cut 25 times. Percentage of cuts made: 92%
Sergio: Played 326, cut 42, Percentage made: 87.1%
Rory: Played 135, cut 18, Percentage cuts made: 86.6%
Hideki: Played 110, cut 15, Percentage made: 86.2%
Phil: Played 578, cut 91, Percentage made: 84.2%
DJ: Played 226, cut 36, Percentage made: 84.0%
Spieth: Played 134, cut 22, Percentage made: 83.5%
Scott: Played 287, cut 51, Percentage made: 82.2%
Day: Played 215, cut 39, Percentage made: 81.9%
Rose: Played 309, cut 60, Percentage made: 80.6
Rickie: Played 202, cut 44, Percentage made: 78.2%
JT: Played 102, cut 24, Percentage made: 76.5%

This excludes w/d's (they seem to be included somewhat inconsistently on pgatour.com), but does include events played as an amateur.
But editing of that lot would only show Tiger's level of consistency and excellence to be higher still - 7 of his cuts were in tournaments played as an amateur (and another 4 were in 2015 when he was apparently crippled).
Interesting though, and a good reflection also of longevity of consistency by Sergio, Adam Scott, Phil and Rosey.
Casey, for instance, registers 77% cuts made, Donald 75%.

7).This looks like a bet-without-the-favourite week (or against the favourite if the prices really are 6/1 Woods 12/1 bar one as suggested by Golf Channel).
There are suggestions from the punditry that Bay Hill will cause Woods to use his driver more than Innisbrook, but against that you'd have to consider this a mini-Major for him, a place he knows like the back of his hand and already with a gazillion wins here.
I'll tempt fate by going with Alex Noren as my one-and-done.
Balls in the air already. Let's go!

I'm guessing Tiger's stroke average must be as good s pretty much anyone's for last 12 rounds played. He must be pretty happy with that. Looks like the debate on here has gone from whether he'll make cuts to why can't he find a way to win. Suspect he'd be pretty happy with that as well.

Bit early to ask "why" he can't win Diggers. He's only played a couple of proper tournaments.
I'm sure he probably could win, be interesting to see in a major.

pedro wrote:He needs to sort out his driver, that's true. But he comes a long way with his 2-iron and 3-wood.
He could have hit 3-wood - 8-iron on that hole, but went for driver - wedge.

What's wrong with his 3-wood btw? Doesn't he hit it 20-ish yds further than his 2-iron and shouldn't it be a good alternative to the driver?

It would be a good alternative for someone who had a brain, Thankfully TPFKANC does not.

super_realist wrote:Bit early to ask "why" he can't win Diggers. He's only played a couple of proper tournaments.
I'm sure he probably could win, be interesting to see in a major.

I agree, which is why I'm surprised his shot choices are being picked apart quite so much.
Great win for Rory, is he back or is this part of the peak and (relative) trough streak. He did look fantastic yesterday.

Diggers wrote:

super_realist wrote:Bit early to ask "why" he can't win Diggers. He's only played a couple of proper tournaments.
I'm sure he probably could win, be interesting to see in a major.

I agree, which is why I'm surprised his shot choices are being picked apart quite so much.

Well, any high profile player who a) has a chance to force a playoff on 18, and b) is in contention for a biggie but catapults his drive OOB on 16 with his nemesis club deserves a bit of scrutiny. Especially if it’s a high profile player that has struggled for comeback in the last 2-3 years and never made these mistakes in the past.

It's going to be increasingly breezy this week in Austin, not too bad Wednesday & Thursday, but pretty windy by Friday and an uncertain-looking forecast for the weekend. Warm though!


Don't know about anyone else but only reason I would question a shot selection last week or this is because he'd played so damn well and then he blinked. It's usually the other guy who does that. Anyway, if his back works like it has for the past five weeks, he's back as a competitive force, no question.

In case you missed it, Yevgeny Kafelnikov is playing the Punta Tournament.

well not quite Kafelnikov, but former Dallas Cowboy Quarterback Tony Romo is in the field.

kwinigolfer wrote:It's going to be increasingly breezy this week in Austin, not too bad Wednesday & Thursday, but pretty windy by Friday and an uncertain-looking forecast for the weekend. Warm though!


Don't know about anyone else but only reason I would question a shot selection last week or this is because he'd played so damn well and then he blinked. It's usually the other guy who does that. Anyway, if his back works like it has for the past five weeks, he's back as a competitive force, no question.

Amen :/ to that kwiniasagolfer (not the weather bit no one ((Mac)) needs that). Speaking of blinking anyone have any thoughts on Stenson's inabilty to get his putts to the hole down the stretch? Not a player I'd back under pressure despite his Open performance.

pedro wrote:

Diggers wrote:

super_realist wrote:Bit early to ask "why" he can't win Diggers. He's only played a couple of proper tournaments.
I'm sure he probably could win, be interesting to see in a major.

I agree, which is why I'm surprised his shot choices are being picked apart quite so much.

Well, any high profile player who a) has a chance to force a playoff on 18, and b) is in contention for a biggie but catapults his drive OOB on 16 with his nemesis club deserves a bit of scrutiny. Especially if it’s a high profile player that has struggled for comeback in the last 2-3 years and never made these mistakes in the past.

I don't see any chat over Rose not really getting into contention or of Stenson not really stepping up. Just seems to me that the biggest complaint re Woods is the micro pundit analysis. Yet here we are...

Stensons putting was poor. He left it 8-10 ft short so many times. Made a good couple of saves but a very disappointing R4 alltogether.

Of course Tigers course management is to be scrutinised. He used to be by far the best player in the world and always stepped up to the plate when it mattered, so I think it’s ok to question his decisions and compare them with what he would have done back in the days or how he would have handled himself.

Stenson, BdC and Rose didn’t make questionable decisions, they just didn’t play well enough.

So the guy who used to make good decisions, but has barely played for years, makes a few calls that some find questionable. Fair enough, maybe. Surely, way above and beyond that, is that the same guy, after surgery, has played really well 3 weeks in a row.
There are so many players where the 12th, 2nd and 5th would simply be enough, especially when realistically this week he was never quite close enough. What about the other guys who were -7 and did squat?
I'm just glad to see him back, I'd imagine at some point his back will go again, so it's fun as long as we get to see a true all time sporting great out there doing well.

Hi guys. Did you know about this one? I didn't:
50 years of Masters Final Round Broadcasts

Diggers wrote:

pedro wrote:

Diggers wrote:

super_realist wrote:Bit early to ask "why" he can't win Diggers. He's only played a couple of proper tournaments.
I'm sure he probably could win, be interesting to see in a major.

I agree, which is why I'm surprised his shot choices are being picked apart quite so much.

Well, any high profile player who a) has a chance to force a playoff on 18, and b) is in contention for a biggie but catapults his drive OOB on 16 with his nemesis club deserves a bit of scrutiny. Especially if it’s a high profile player that has struggled for comeback in the last 2-3 years and never made these mistakes in the past.

I don't see any chat over Rose not really getting into contention or of Stenson not really stepping up. Just seems to me that the biggest complaint re Woods is the micro pundit analysis. Yet here we are...

Digs,
The best weekend scores were:
-13: Rory
-10: Rose
-7: Rodgers, O'Hair
Rose had also dug himself a hole on Thursday, +4 after 6 holes. Certainly disappointing from Henrik.

Diggers wrote:So the guy who used to make good decisions, but has barely played for years, makes a few calls that some find questionable. Fair enough, maybe. Surely, way above and beyond that, is that the same guy, after surgery, has played really well 3 weeks in a row.
There are so many players where the 12th, 2nd and 5th would simply be enough, especially when realistically this week he was never quite close enough. What about the other guys who were -7 and did squat?
I'm just glad to see him back, I'd imagine at some point his back will go again, so it's fun as long as we get to see a true all time sporting great out there doing well.

Diggers, his course management has never been particularly good. His driving statistics have also never been good, yet he keeps pulling the driver out.
Someone like Stenson has learned that his driver isn't reliable, so has a strong 3 wood and uses it to good effect. Woods is more than long enough with a 3 wood, but it seems he has this ego that won't allow him to play sensibly.

I agree, he was never going to win this one, but you'd think he would be practicing the sort of things he'll need to do in the closing stages.
I honestly think TPFKANC would have 20+ majors if he'd used course management more effectively.

super_realist wrote:TPFKANC

Took me a while to work this out. Mind is going. Was determined not to ask.

super_realist wrote:

Diggers wrote:So the guy who used to make good decisions, but has barely played for years, makes a few calls that some find questionable. Fair enough, maybe. Surely, way above and beyond that, is that the same guy, after surgery, has played really well 3 weeks in a row.
There are so many players where the 12th, 2nd and 5th would simply be enough, especially when realistically this week he was never quite close enough. What about the other guys who were -7 and did squat?
I'm just glad to see him back, I'd imagine at some point his back will go again, so it's fun as long as we get to see a true all time sporting great out there doing well.

Diggers, his course management has never been particularly good. His driving statistics have also never been good, yet he keeps pulling the driver out.
Someone like Stenson has learned that his driver isn't reliable, so has a strong 3 wood and uses it to good effect. Woods is more than long enough with a 3 wood, but it seems he has this ego that won't allow him to play sensibly.

I agree, he was never going to win this one, but you'd think he would be practicing the sort of things he'll need to do in the closing stages.
I honestly think TPFKANC would have 20+ majors if he'd used course management more effectively.

What times in Majors has his course management let him down meaning he did not win?

Anyone has any thoughts on the WGC draw?
http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2018/tournamentid=2018026/news/newsid=344114.html

Personally I think Group 7 could be interesting, with some new exciting players.

pedro wrote:Anyone has any thoughts on the WGC draw?
http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2018/tournamentid=2018026/news/newsid=344114.html

Personally I think Group 7 could be interesting, with some new exciting players.

Ageeed Pedro. I think Group 4 is pretty tasty as well. I like Poulter, although I know a lot of you don’t, so I will be keeping an eye on that one as well. Think he got a bit lucky with the draw.

I like the Fleetwood & Poults, Berger and Chappell foursome - you could make a case for each of them.
I like Tommy's comment:
Poulter "was described as a match play ninja and I've never really gone up against a ninja".

Can there be a Reed v Poulter final?

I'm never wrong wrote:Can there be a Reed v Poulter final?

They could meet, but only in a semi-final.

Kind of interesting.
Further to super's suggestion, and Mac's downright assertion, that Danny Willett has the worst post-Major record of any Major winner, I had a quick butcher's at Major winners over the past forty years.
23 Major winners never won again on the European or PGA Tours.
Of those, 10 were multiple Major winners so think we can excuse them.
So: 13 have a single Major win and have never won again in on the European or PGA Tours. (And of those, Grady, IB-F won in Australia, Duval won in Japan and Immelman won a web.com tournament - an indictment that stands alone!)

More thoughts in future Notes!

super_realist wrote:
Diggers, his course management has never been particularly good. His driving statistics have also never been good, yet he keeps pulling the driver out.
Someone like Stenson has learned that his driver isn't reliable, so has a strong 3 wood and uses it to good effect. Woods is more than long enough with a 3 wood, but it seems he has this ego that won't allow him to play sensibly.

If only he would have had as good a career as Stenson who has learned to use that 3 wood to good effect.

super_realist wrote:

Diggers wrote:So the guy who used to make good decisions, but has barely played for years, makes a few calls that some find questionable. Fair enough, maybe. Surely, way above and beyond that, is that the same guy, after surgery, has played really well 3 weeks in a row.
There are so many players where the 12th, 2nd and 5th would simply be enough, especially when realistically this week he was never quite close enough. What about the other guys who were -7 and did squat?
I'm just glad to see him back, I'd imagine at some point his back will go again, so it's fun as long as we get to see a true all time sporting great out there doing well.

Diggers, his course management has never been particularly good. His driving statistics have also never been good, yet he keeps pulling the driver out.
Someone like Stenson has learned that his driver isn't reliable, so has a strong 3 wood and uses it to good effect. Woods is more than long enough with a 3 wood, but it seems he has this ego that won't allow him to play sensibly.

I agree, he was never going to win this one, but you'd think he would be practicing the sort of things he'll need to do in the closing stages.
I honestly think TPFKANC would have 20+ majors if he'd used course management more effectively.

You always bang on about "good" course management but not sure how you personally would define it?

The person who manages the course best in my opinion is the person who takes fewest shots to go round hence to me Tiger is arguably the best course manager of all time.

Dunno. Because you’re GOAT doesn’t mean you’re perfect. Course management is only part of the equation. If you’re a great putter, chipper, driver etc. you can compensate for other imperfections in your game.

kwinigolfer wrote:

I'm never wrong wrote:Can there be a Reed v Poulter final?

They could meet, but only in a semi-final.

Cheers Kwini
I’ll hope that happens as it means Poilts qualifies for the Masters

pedro wrote:Dunno. Because you’re GOAT doesn’t mean you’re perfect. Course management is only part of the equation. If you’re a great putter, chipper, driver etc. you can compensate for other imperfections in your game.

So in your opinion putting, chipping and driving aren't part of managing a course and I didn't say Tiger was perfect just that he was arguably better than anyone else.

I get that wisdom says that the best way to manage a course is to hit fairways and greens but if there's a guy taking fewer shots by taking a different route to me he's managing the course better than anyone else.

Argue all you like that were he to play differently he'd take even fewer shots but you've got no evidence to say that would be the case.

It IS fair to say though that course management may be a differentiator in the future.

Koepka out of the Masters

AlciG wrote:

super_realist wrote:
Diggers, his course management has never been particularly good. His driving statistics have also never been good, yet he keeps pulling the driver out.
Someone like Stenson has learned that his driver isn't reliable, so has a strong 3 wood and uses it to good effect. Woods is more than long enough with a 3 wood, but it seems he has this ego that won't allow him to play sensibly.

If only he would have had as good a career as Stenson who has learned to use that 3 wood to good effect.

Why are people so obtuse? TPFKANC has had a fantastic career, but he's spunked at least 6 years away because he doesn't have a brain.
Add to that those where his abysmal driving has taken him out of a tournament.

It's not a case of being better than Stenson, at his prime he clearly was, however he doesn't have the game he used to have, and he's up against talent he's never faced before, so if he's going to win, he has to play smart, and pulling out the driver when it's your worst club and putting it OB or in the bushes isn't going to beat the likes of Rahm and Rizla.

WTF is TPFKANC?


Kwini

If you think I asserted Willett has the worst post major career I have not posted clearly enough. As I thought I said I agreed with Supers post that without checking it would be hard to think of a worse record. Not sure why you are increasingly hard on me?

Mac,
I'll help you with your research shortly, then you can take a look at some options, make it less "hard to think".


Thanks for the Koepka news, sirb; imagine it'll be another month then before he plays, but sure he'll want to defend his title @ Shinnecock.

I was pretty sure I’d given super several answers at the time.
Just checked back; I did. Clarke, Campbell, IBF, Hamilton, Yang. There you go Mac. All without looking anything up.

I’d like to hear Willetts brothers take on it...

NedB-H wrote:I was pretty sure I’d given super several answers at the time.
Just checked back; I did. Clarke, Campbell, IBF, Hamilton, Yang. There you go Mac. All without looking anything up.

DC could well be the worst, not that he'd care one whit. Hamilton and possibly Micheel close behind.
Campbell won the MatchPlay, IB-F won in Aus and Yang won a China Open.

Mac is not very good at looking anything up; do the Edinburgh buses have wifi?

McLaren wrote:WTF is TPFKANC?

My guess is: The Player Formerly Known As Nine Chins
Super insists on calling him names... My guess is that deep down in a place super won't admit it's because he's 'different'

I call lots of players names, nothing to do with TPFKANC being black as you infer.

As for players as bad as Willett, Stoooart Cink was pretty atrocious. I'd forgotten about him. Wayne Grady was pretty terrible too.

TPFNANC thats hilarious. He has names for lots of players, boredan spieth, rev something or another, all just top quality bantz from the king of bantz mr realist. He is like Jimmy Bullard. Love the bantz.

The names I give them are no more stupid than the names they insist on calling themselves.
At least TPFKANC is obviously urine extraction, seriously insisting you are called Boo, Tiger or Bubba when it isn't your name is the truly preposterous and laughable thing.

Top bantz. Your jokes are hot. Your are doing it again, mentioning peoples names to wind up others. Pure bantz by the king of bantz. You tell us you dont actually care what they call themselves but still mention it time and time again to wind others up, its to banter man. No one can touch you, archbishop of banterbury.

You're the one who brought it up.

kwinigolfer wrote:Yup, He'd be at a significant disadvantage on many Par-4's, starting with his nemesis, #1. But he hits his 3-wood far enough to mitigate some of that handicap. And never say never with him.
Looking forward to seeing how it all plays out, so many top pros in really good form.

Only the weedy short hitters hit driver on the first. Last year almost all the top players were hitting 3 wood.

Always hit driver on the first.

The head is bigger, reduces the risk of missing it.

All these boys do the same as us. Drive to course 10 mins before tee time via somewhere doing bacon baps. Put shoes on eating bacon bap. Walk across the putting green, hit one or two putts nowhere near the hole, claim it's a distance gauging, feel exercise, go to tee, swing driver 2 or 3 times, get on tee, slam driver somewhere, find it, carry on, moan about starting badly, moan about the course's equivalent of Amen corner (a short stretch that invariably changes each week wherever you play badly), moan about the tough finish, sign for a point 1, leave, put clubs away for a week.

Repeat.

It’s fun to dissect Tiger’s shots, love him or loathe him, professional golf just seems more interesting when he’s around.

As for the tee shot OOB on 16: it was a poor swing, he’d gone right the previous two days so was trying to avoid another block right but he just over compensated. Driver was clearly the sensible decision as he could clear the bunkers. 3 wood would have been a dumb decision as that is exactly where all the bunkers were. I know he made birdie from the bunker and right hand rough on the previous two days but those were down to tiger wonder shots.

He could have laid up short of the bunkers, but that would have put too much pressure on the second shot. He was going for eagle not just birdie, it’s been pretty clear in the last few weeks that he wants the wins and doesn’t care about placing, 2nd or 10th are the same to him.

I think it was kwini who said In the past it would have been someone else who blinked. The fact that historically we have an image of tiger never making mistakes at the key moments is a testament to his astounding course management. He always hit the right shots at the right time. Best course manager ever.

Roller_Coaster wrote:Always hit driver on the first.

The head is bigger, reduces the risk of missing it.

All these boys do the same as us. Drive to course 10 mins before tee time via somewhere doing bacon baps. Put shoes on eating bacon bap. Walk across the putting green, hit one or two putts nowhere near the hole, claim it's a distance gauging, feel exercise, go to tee, swing driver 2 or 3 times, get on tee, slam driver somewhere, find it, carry on, moan about starting badly, moan about the course's equivalent of Amen corner (a short stretch that invariably changes each week wherever you play badly), moan about the tough finish, sign for a point 1, leave, put clubs away for a week.

Repeat.

That’s why I always hit driver on the first too. Especially the first at Augusta.

Classic moan after 12 points on the front 9 and 20 on the back 9: why can’t I play well for 18 holes?

Classic opening tee shot for me involves me coming over the top then pulling it left, would be the perfect shot shape for the 10th tee at Augusta. I think I’ll ask to start on the back nine this year.

As I hit a slight fade I always hit driver on 13 on Augusta as I otherwise have no chance of clearing the creek in two. I'm working on shaping the ball but I guess I also need to commit better. I need a few more reps.

PS: are you guys talking PlayStation or Nintendo Wii?

Didn't know this was going on in Austin. Bomber blown up

I'm never wrong wrote:Didn't know this was going on in Austin. Bomber blown up

And with Tiger Woods and his course management not in the field it should be a pretty safe place to watch golf.

raycastleunited wrote:It’s fun to dissect Tiger’s shots, love him or loathe him, professional golf just seems more interesting when he’s around.

As for the tee shot OOB on 16: it was a poor swing, he’d gone right the previous two days so was trying to avoid another block right but he just over compensated. Driver was clearly the sensible decision as he could clear the bunkers. 3 wood would have been a dumb decision as that is exactly where all the bunkers were. I know he made birdie from the bunker and right hand rough on the previous two days but those were down to tiger wonder shots.

He could have laid up short of the bunkers, but that would have put too much pressure on the second shot. He was going for eagle not just birdie, it’s been pretty clear in the last few weeks that he wants the wins and doesn’t care about placing, 2nd or 10th are the same to him.

I think it was kwini who said In the past it would have been someone else who blinked. The fact that historically we have an image of tiger never making mistakes at the key moments is a testament to his astounding course management. He always hit the right shots at the right time. Best course manager ever.

I'm in total agreementwith this whole post Ray. I don't think anyone has managed a golf course as well as Tiger did in his prime.