PGA Tour: APi Day at Bay Hill: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

Better late than never (not really sure about that), but this was clearly meant to be posted yesterday!

1).The API (Arnold Palmer Invitational) is underway at Bay Hill and once again a PGA Tour field is being subsidised by "internationals", with Rickie Fowler the only American ranked among the Top Ten, in owgr placings, in the field. That's the third Florida event in that category, and Rickie is some kind of honorary host. No matter, this will all be overlooked as the resurgent Tiger is back to work for his fourth tournament in five weeks - wonder when that last happened?!

2).Tiger Woods looked very, very good I thought in runnering up at last week's "Valspar", though still not sure why the iron off the 72nd tee. But Poulter got similar grief at last year's Players on his way to a second place finish. Would've said Poults had a lot more on the line than Woods, but all good grist for the discussion mill.

3).Having said all that, WELL DONE Paul Casey. I still think he has the most talent of his generation of English golfers, still think he struts about like a prat with the ever-present supercilious grin, but WELL DONE Paul Casey.
He's never let anyone down in Ryder Cup play and was one of the few bright spots in sirnick's Ryder Cup losing team - imagine Thomas Bjorn was thrilled to see his performance, and has likely been telling him that his return to European Tour membership made all the difference.
Now, Paul, you've got to go out and win from the front, or at least the final group or two. Quite OK if you do that at The Masters.

4).Brandt Snedeker must be heartily sick of the sight of Mr.Woods. NBC TV offered a stat which showed Sneds had been grouped w/Tiger something like 14 times and had never had the better round, head-to-head. And Snedeker's meltdown on Sunday cost him a place in the WGC-MatchPlay, and severely jeopardised his chances of qualifying for Augusta, a tournament he'd love to be in. But that got me to thinking (never a good thing):

5).Possibly the only time that Woods has been out of his competitive comfort zone this season was at Riviera when he was grouped for 36 holes with Thomas & McIlroy. Imagine they, all three of 'em, wanted to one-up the other, hit it farther, make more birds, get the crowd going - and they all fell pretty flat.
Otherwise Tiger has been grouped with arguably friendly fire, Snedeker especially. Dufner, Reed & Hoffman, Spieth and Tiger's mate Stenson; though when he had Hideki for company he only managed an even par 72. Off with the always competitive Jason Day today so we'll see.

6).But what about this stat?
NBC also noted that Spieth has already suffered more PGA Tour cuts in his career than Tiger Woods.
So: At the risk of being ott arcane, I looked at the bare data of leading Tour players who had played at least 100 events (so excluding Rahm & Koepka) and this is what it shows:

Tiger: Played 332 events, cut 25 times. Percentage of cuts made: 92%
Sergio: Played 326, cut 42, Percentage made: 87.1%
Rory: Played 135, cut 18, Percentage cuts made: 86.6%
Hideki: Played 110, cut 15, Percentage made: 86.2%
Phil: Played 578, cut 91, Percentage made: 84.2%
DJ: Played 226, cut 36, Percentage made: 84.0%
Spieth: Played 134, cut 22, Percentage made: 83.5%
Scott: Played 287, cut 51, Percentage made: 82.2%
Day: Played 215, cut 39, Percentage made: 81.9%
Rose: Played 309, cut 60, Percentage made: 80.6
Rickie: Played 202, cut 44, Percentage made: 78.2%
JT: Played 102, cut 24, Percentage made: 76.5%

This excludes w/d's (they seem to be included somewhat inconsistently on pgatour.com), but does include events played as an amateur.
But editing of that lot would only show Tiger's level of consistency and excellence to be higher still - 7 of his cuts were in tournaments played as an amateur (and another 4 were in 2015 when he was apparently crippled).
Interesting though, and a good reflection also of longevity of consistency by Sergio, Adam Scott, Phil and Rosey.
Casey, for instance, registers 77% cuts made, Donald 75%.

7).This looks like a bet-without-the-favourite week (or against the favourite if the prices really are 6/1 Woods 12/1 bar one as suggested by Golf Channel).
There are suggestions from the punditry that Bay Hill will cause Woods to use his driver more than Innisbrook, but against that you'd have to consider this a mini-Major for him, a place he knows like the back of his hand and already with a gazillion wins here.
I'll tempt fate by going with Alex Noren as my one-and-done.
Balls in the air already. Let's go!

Mac,
I can't be bothered to clean up all your mess, but DW scored approx 76 owgr points in the 8 months following his Masterpiece. Including a 2nd in Italy, and a 3rd at Wentworth.
That's not earth-shattering, but a darned sight better than many candidates for super's accolade. Which you apparently agree with.
Since then he's mostly been injured, but let's judge his form when he's fit.

I quite fancied Noren this week but he's had an awful day. Seems to have lost some consistency.

Flawless round of 68 by the leading English-born golfer in the field. Star of the future.

Bud Cauley having another good week - can see him winning before the year is out.

I will let super battle this one.

Not like you to ask super to hold your coat, Mac.


Looking like a shoot-out Sunday, unless Stenson and the Mad Scientist birdie in. Golf Channel will have exclusive coverage of Tiger's early morning gym session, his breakfast, back to the gym, a quickie in the car park at Perkins and then off to the course. Chamblee analyzing his posture at every twitch.

McLaren wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:Shaun Micheel.


Mac,
You still there?
Willett's record post-Masters in 2016 was pretty respectable, perhaps not good enough to support your narratives but a darned sight better than many have achieved. Just the facts.

It was supers narrative I was agreeing with but I would be interested if you could think of anyone else other than Micheel.  I think DC might have had a worse time of it than Willett after his Open win but can't think of other similarly dramatic loses of form post winning a major.

The challenge was: has anyone had a worse post-Major period than Willett? Kwini suggests Micheel - which you don't appear to dispute. Sorry, you don't get to have another go just because your original premise was called out as balony.

Does anyone know what tiger woods exemptions to play on the pga tour. Say he missed every cut and kept playing at what point would he lose any status?

ben,
I don't think he'd lose any status except for WGC's, the FedEx Play Offs and, from 2019 onwards, the US Open. He has a lifetime membership by virtue of his tally of wins.

Another gorgeous day in store in Orlando (except that's it's in Orlando), but perhaps a little more breeze than we saw yesterday.
Terrific leaderboard and you'd think at least the -7's have a chance.
-15 for the "W"? That would mean a 69 for H.

Well worth reading:

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/tiger-confidential-what-pros-really-say-about-tigers-chances-at-the-masters


A host of opinions about Tont, his chances at The Masters, the state of his game, and his health, physical and psychological.

Bear in mind that this appears to have been written before his missed cut at Riviera, but also his good play in Florida. I'd imagine many of these opinions will have been modified since.

http://www.golfchannel.com/article/golf-central-blog/responds-murray-dont-be-jealous/

Ben An and Grayson Murray paired together today

Thanks for that Kwini, much more interested than I expected at the start. Particularly interesting for me of how the issue of Woods’ health reared its head a few times before they skirted round going into it more thoroughly. Never heard anyone come out and call the broken leg story an outright lie before. And I feel like we could be waiting a very long time before we find out exactly how a man who couldn’t get out of bed has the fastest swing on tour. Lots of people on the tv coverage getting very excited about that. But no one really discussing how on earth it can have happened.

kwinigolfer wrote:Well worth reading:

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/tiger-confidential-what-pros-really-say-about-tigers-chances-at-the-masters


A host of opinions about Tont, his chances at The Masters, the state of his game, and his health, physical and psychological.

Bear in mind that this appears to have been written before his missed cut at Riviera, but also his good play in Florida. I'd imagine many of these opinions will have been modified since.

Thanks for that link Kwini - quite an interesting read. Thought the couple of comments about ANGC being a good course, at best, as quite interesting as well.

Stenson's giving me the heebie jeebies over leaving 3 - 6 ft putts. A bit like Noren in San Diego, miss one and he'll miss another.

Woods getting his irons dialled in, seems to be driving it much better.

Tiger’s coming.....

Tiger's come.


Top 20 finish almost guaranteed by Sam Horsfield - looking more and more as if he has a wonderful future ahead of him.

Now we know why he hit iron the other week!

Rory showing that when he putts well he contends. Bdcb has a fugly swing.

AMF,
Didn't see that coming.
Rory'll not have a better chance for a win without really being under pressure - under the radar.

Good to see ben an crushing grayson

#16.
I'm not fond of Par-5's that require driver/wedge. Something not quite right about that.

Tiger has looked tired since that oob tee shot on 16. Must have drained his energy

Surely this is now Rory’s tournament

Agreed Alci, But he nailed that par putt on #18. Imagine he'd've wanted to win to feel confident going to Augusta - probably not quite ready for that. Watch out Memorial?

375 drive by rors. He is so good.

Last group over a hole behind.

Don’t know about Bryson but I always feel Henrik is quite slow

I read they’d been on the clock since the 4th tee. Don’t remember them being in tonnes of trouble either. Been another fantastic Sunday for entertainment.

Great tournament.
The final pair was waiting for the green to clear to play BDC's shot into 12. Stenson doesn't play well with someone who's even slower than him!

kwinigolfer wrote:Well worth reading:

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/tiger-confidential-what-pros-really-say-about-tigers-chances-at-the-masters


A host of opinions about Tont, his chances at The Masters, the state of his game, and his health, physical and psychological.

Bear in mind that this appears to have been written before his missed cut at Riviera, but also his good play in Florida. I'd imagine many of these opinions will have been modified since.

Phil and Rose looks good for Augusta.

Wee Mac is back! Superb by Rory

Great putting by Rory. May it last for Augusta.

Impressive and timely win by Rev McIlroy, what is probably most important is that he's been seeing probably the greatest ever PGA putter (in statistical terms at least) Brad Faxon in regards to his putting.

If he can putt like Faxon, and the rest of his game is as good as R4, then you can exclude 99% of any field

super_realist wrote:
If he can putt like Faxon,  and the rest of his game is as good as R4, then you can exclude 99% of any field

Make that 100%. If he just putts like my grandma, or like Lee Westwood in contention in a major, it will be 99%.
A McIlroy firing on all cylinders is unbeatable.

Good to see competition at the top be so strong.
Rahm, Rizla, Thomas, McIlroy, Rose and Boredan Spieth make it a really good top 10.

super_realist wrote:Good to see competition at the top be so strong.
Rahm, Rizla, Thomas, McIlroy, Rose and Boredan Spieth make it a really good top 10.

If Phil continues like this he'll soon enter the top 10 as well.



...not to mention you know who...

Under pressure you know who hooks one OOB.

Maybe not as ready, as everyone else believes.

He needs to sort out his driver, that's true. But he comes a long way with his 2-iron and 3-wood.
He could have hit 3-wood - 8-iron on that hole, but went for driver - wedge.

What's wrong with his 3-wood btw? Doesn't he hit it 20-ish yds further than his 2-iron and shouldn't it be a good alternative to the driver?

SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:Under pressure you know who hooks one OOB.

Maybe not as ready, as everyone else believes.

Everything had gone so well for him Sunday, his ego probably convinced him that he was once again invincible. He'll be getting into a ton of trouble if he does that again at Augusta.

Speaking of which, this is the last weekend for pros to qualify for this year's Masters. Amazingly, I think Ted Potter is the only PGA Tour winner this year that wasn't previously exempt.
Those playing in the WGC-MatchPlay not already exempt include:
Kodaira
Frittelli
Reavie
C.Smith
Levy
Hahn
Uihlein
Poulter
CHIII
List
Bradley
Na
Suri (playing after Luiten w/d'd with a wrist injury).

I'll defer to others to advise what finish each needs to achieve to earn an invitation.
Can't see that anyone playing in the Dominican can qualify.

kwinigolfer wrote:

SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:Under pressure you know who hooks one OOB.

Maybe not as ready, as everyone else believes.

Everything had gone so well for him Sunday, his ego probably convinced him that he was once again invincible.

Or perhaps he just hit a bad shot... It happens.
In his interview he admitted as much. He was unsure of which shot to play and didn't commit to it and played a bad one.

He felt he needed to play the last 3 holes in at least 3 under to have any chance to win.

This just proves whatever he does some people will always be critical. Last week some here were criticizing him for taking a 2 Iron on the 18th
and now some are criticizing him for taking a driver.

Perhaps one of you guys should be on his bag as you seem to know better then him and his caddie what club and shot he should be playing.

AlciG wrote:
This just proves whatever he does some people will always be critical. Last week some here were criticizing him for taking a 2 Iron on the 18th
and now some are criticizing him for taking a driver.

Perhaps one of you guys should be on his bag as you seem to know better then him and his caddie what club and shot he should be playing.

Simple. If a 2-iron is too conservative and he isn't comfy with his driver --> 3-wood.

Alci,
The way he'd been hitting his short irons, there was unlikely to be that much difference in terms of reward between an 8-iron (3-wood, 8-iron) and driver/wedge, yet he chose the option with highest risk. An eagle might not have won it, but Russian Roulette with his driver brings all sorts of numbers into play.
Whereas the previous week he was dead last in length off the tee for his 72nd and the chose to hit too little club into the green, when only a birdie could have earned him a chance at a "W".

pedro's right - sorry Joe LaCava.

pedro wrote:

AlciG wrote:
This just proves whatever he does some people will always be critical. Last week some here were criticizing him for taking a 2 Iron on the 18th
and now some are criticizing him for taking a driver.

Perhaps one of you guys should be on his bag as you seem to know better then him and his caddie what club and shot he should be playing.

Simple. If a 2-iron is too conservative and he isn't comfy with his driver --> 3-wood.

And if he had played a 3W and dumped it in the bunker what would have been said here?

Who cares? He wouldn't have won anyway, assuming McIlroy would still have shot what he did. I'm with you somewhat - it's up to him. I tend to think he's in the best position to decide on a given shot. Must have been doing something right in the past with his record...

Kwini, I believe the Houston winner will get an 11th hour invite to the Masters if not already exempt.

Winning one match this week in the Round Robin for Kodaira, Frittelli, Reavie (ranked 44,45,47), should be enough for them to stay in the Top 50 and a Masters invite.

Barring, of course, a perfect storm. if several players ranked behind them get to the final 8, they could get bumped. Winning one match will guarantee them some points, rather than a shut out. If they can't win one match, then they should be vulnerable.

T5 might not be enough for players ranked 60 and below to pass Reavie.

GPB,
Re:Houston: Yup, meant to qualify by saying via the owgr's.
Also hope Houston announces a sponsor - surprised robo hasn't stood up.

AlciG wrote:

pedro wrote:

AlciG wrote:
This just proves whatever he does some people will always be critical. Last week some here were criticizing him for taking a 2 Iron on the 18th
and now some are criticizing him for taking a driver.

Perhaps one of you guys should be on his bag as you seem to know better then him and his caddie what club and shot he should be playing.

Simple. If a 2-iron is too conservative and he isn't comfy with his driver --> 3-wood.

And if he had played a 3W and dumped it in the bunker what would have been said here?

That it was a poor shot. But not as poor as an OOB. 3W in bunker (~180 to pin) could still set up an eagle chance, or at least a realistic birdie. Then birdie 17+18 and he'd have had the 3 under he was looking for. OK, he wouldn't have won it anyway but at least we would have had a realistic chance if Rory had gone even par on the last 3, in stead of -2.

Joe LaCava, I'm waiting at the phone.

Someone above - I can’t see due to me being on my phone - said Tiger would have to use the driver at Augusta. Does he? Could be do a Zach and go for the par 5’s in three? Are there other big holes that need a driver?

He'd already made birdie from the bunker on the right, and twice from the rough on the right. Dangerous shot but he's been mustard with his short irons, still wild with his driver.

Yes Zach won the Masters in 2007. But his results have been less stellar in his other appearance. A T9th and T20th and a bunch of missed cuts.

Zach was dialed in that week, got all breaks and made everything. The chances of anyone winning the Masters playing small ball is highly unlikely.

Yup, He'd be at a significant disadvantage on many Par-4's, starting with his nemesis, #1. But he hits his 3-wood far enough to mitigate some of that handicap. And never say never with him.
Looking forward to seeing how it all plays out, so many top pros in really good form.

Prince Drac has a list of "bubble" players in MP and what the minimum they need to do to get into top 50 OWGR for the Masters.
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