2019 General Election

First topic message reminder :

Now it's confirmed for December 12th (pretty much), I thought we should have a shiny new thread for the fourth and final UK GE of this tumultuous decade; a decade which has also included three referendums and four (maybe five) different Prime Ministers.

News this morning that Amber Rudd won't be defending her seat. Oh well.

Opinion polls currently have the Tories in a double digit lead, but it's anticipated to be a lot tighter than that by the time we reach the actual polling day.

not sure they could've done much else differently. They had a USP which alienated the tory vote to begin with, and then they were trying to fragment the Labour vote. Labour have turned a lot of their attention to defending that flank. Alternative was basically irrelevance anyway.

Heading towards a Boris win though...

I just can't understand why Britain wishes to elect someone that has repeatedly proved himself to be fundamentally dishonest. Agree with Corbyn's politics or not, he's not a liar like Boris is.

Pr4wn wrote:I just can't understand why Britain wishes to elect someone that has repeatedly proved himself to be fundamentally dishonest. Agree with Corbyn's politics or not, he's not a liar like Boris is.

One word - BREXIT.

So many are obsessed with it. They don't know what it really entails but they want it. Even though all the signs say it will hurt many in terms of industry, jobs and such-like they still want it. And the Tories are seen as the only party offering it.

Afro wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Afro wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:When you can’t see light to vote based on nationals, see what your locals are like. They will have certain stances of their own. I remember meeting the lass who won in my constituency. Very rude and arrogant. I was vote counting that night and she was rude to me, as was another Tory (a member) who eventually left me cos I told her to f*** off.

I was a younger man, dumber and more headstrong

In my experience the Tory and Labour candidates round this way are in general horrible to talk to whereas the Lib Dems are far more amiable. The strange exception was actually Ann Widdecombe was always very easy to talk to, she seems to have become a caricature of her media personality now.

I'd agree with this. The Tory and Labour candidates seem to be shipped in (particularly the Tory ones as they safe seats all around us in which to get their preferred people into parliament). The Lib Dems and Greens seem to all be local people who are far more engaging to talk with

I may be naive, but aren't we supposed to be voting for our representatives i.e. MPs who represent those of us in their actual constituencies? When did it become about simply a National question? God, our system is FUBAR.

Indeed. So where I live, I am close to the North Herefordshire, South Herefordshire, Forest of Dean and Monmouth constituencies.

All are Tory seats.
North Herefordshire has an Etonian from London, who originally went for the Burnley seat.
South Herefordshire has another Etonian from London.
Forest of Dean is not so bad. An Oxford graduate from Swindon which is at least close
Monmouth again not so bad. From London, moved to Newport (which is close). Tried to get in in Bridgend, so they moved him to Monmouth. Incidentally, he is vilest of Conservatives I have ever witnessed. If you get the chance to, look for YouTube videos of him (David TC Davies) on BBC parliament or BBC Wales. His complete contempt and lack of respect for other people is beyond belief.

Anyway, the point is none are local people from that constituency.

Thought it was bad, but....

How is that even allowed? How the Hell can they possibly be a 'representative'? Last one out, turn off the lights....

Pr4wn wrote:I just can't understand why Britain wishes to elect someone that has repeatedly proved himself to be fundamentally dishonest. Agree with Corbyn's politics or not, he's not a liar like Boris is.

Brexit maybe? Or a lot of people also think Corbyn's manifesto is a car crash. Or alleged anti-Semitism? In a two horse race, more seem to be backing Johnson and the Tories.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:I just can't understand why Britain wishes to elect someone that has repeatedly proved himself to be fundamentally dishonest. Agree with Corbyn's politics or not, he's not a liar like Boris is.

One word - BREXIT.

So many are obsessed with it. They don't know what it really entails but they want it. Even though all the signs say it will hurt many in terms of industry, jobs and such-like they still want it. And the Tories are seen as the only party offering it.

Probably. Bit like diehard Scottish independence I should think. Wanting out of EU shouldn't be allowed, but how dare we Scots be prevented from leaving the UK? Interesting dichotomy...

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Jo Swinson's big moment and I'm not sure she took it...Certainly the flavour of the Questions weren't overly helpful..

Lacks the projective quality and personality of Clegg..

Like Farron before her..

The more people see of her, the less they like her.

navyblueshorts wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:I just can't understand why Britain wishes to elect someone that has repeatedly proved himself to be fundamentally dishonest. Agree with Corbyn's politics or not, he's not a liar like Boris is.

Brexit maybe? Or a lot of people also think Corbyn's manifesto is a car crash. Or alleged anti-Semitism? In a two horse race, more seem to be backing Johnson and the Tories.

Anti Semitism isn't a big issue....Just like Islamophobia isn't.

The Tories are ahead because they are Immigrant baiting like always...

Gullible Working class malcontents fall for the "They are taking our Jobs...Benefits...Houses" line...

Sad but too many believe the Mail and The Sun..

Filthy but Effective.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:I just can't understand why Britain wishes to elect someone that has repeatedly proved himself to be fundamentally dishonest. Agree with Corbyn's politics or not, he's not a liar like Boris is.

Brexit maybe? Or a lot of people also think Corbyn's manifesto is a car crash. Or alleged anti-Semitism? In a two horse race, more seem to be backing Johnson and the Tories.

Anti Semitism isn't a big issue....Just like Islamophobia isn't.

The Tories are ahead because they are Immigrant baiting like always...

Gullible Working class malcontents fall for the "They are taking our Jobs...Benefits...Houses" line...

Sad but too many believe the Mail and The Sun..

Filthy but Effective.

That's fine, but combine anti-Semitism, a coward's position on Brexit, a loony Manifesto etc and it all adds up. You have a point re. Tories etc, but the narrative from the opposition is obviously not cutting the mustard. Poor effort from them; end of. We'll see though, in December, I guess.

I'm afraid that many, many people do believe that their job prospects, the NHS etc are directly and negatively impacted by immigration. Like it or lump it, that's the way it is. Labour haven't been remotely effective at challenging this; in fact no-one really has. They aren't interested in an evidence-based discussion refuting that narrative - they're all full of soundbite scheisse. I come back to what I said before - many people's priority (from all traditional political persuasions) is Brexit; right or wrong. They'll worry about other things once we're out. Corbyn thinks it's fine to be (allegedly) neutral, although we all know he's a secret Brexiteer - coward.

What a load of Bollox...Stop reading the Daily Mail..

Think for yourself..

You need some new material Truss, how about reeling off some more facebook headlines for us?

Tories have a 19 point lead in one poll....

Fair enough...If Sydney from Stoke wants to elect a Mysogynistic...Racist because Billionaires tell him everything wrong with his life is because of immigrants then so be it..

Buyer remorse is a terrible thing...Good luck when it arrives.

Strange thing about the last few years is it's People who don't need help voting to help those that don't want to help themselves..

But c'est la vie...

Enjoy the rest of the weekend folks.

Much better to elect the antisemite who's going to destroy lives with his reckless taxation.

Yawn...

My feelings reading your posts too...

Soul Requiem wrote:Much better to elect the antisemite who's going to destroy lives with his reckless taxation.

Posting that Corbyn is an antisemite is libelous. Prove that he's an antisemite, or retract that statement.

Pr4wn wrote:

Soul Requiem wrote:Much better to elect the antisemite who's going to destroy lives with his reckless taxation.

Posting that Corbyn is an antisemite is libelous. Prove that he's an antisemite, or retract that statement.

Pretty sure he’s fine. Pretty sure this thread has the same or worse. Suggest the fact he’s a public figure and this isn’t intentionally false nor wild speculation based on rumour, nor an isolated online opinion, mean I’m not gonna panic for the site.

Just looking for some proof, or any kind of evidence to that moronic post.

In fairness to Soul he probably reads The Sun...

I imagine he thinks all the Hillsborough victims were drunk and causing trouble too..

Why wouldn't he ??...If you can't trust a Murdoch paper to give you the truth who can you trust ??

Truss, try and contribute something original to the discussion, beyond the usual “oh x disagrees with me, he must read the Sun/the Mail/hate immigrants etc.”

Pr4wn wrote:Just looking for some proof, or any kind of evidence to that moronic post.

You can't state that Corbyn is antisemitic. But you can state he has friends who are, and you can state that the Labour party is under investigation by the EHRC, because of what has been reported under his watch.

I recently saw some material covering his support for the Serbs during the Bosnian conflict. It was portrayed in a more sensational manner than would be ideal (at least partially along the lines of opposing NATO intervention) but he has had some interesting friends over the years. These things don't matter when you are just a rebelious back bench MP, but they do when you are going for the job of PM (or should be - looking at Boris's Russian mates right now...)

lostinwales wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:Just looking for some proof, or any kind of evidence to that moronic post.

You can't state that Corbyn is antisemitic. But you can state he has friends who are, and you can state that the Labour party is under investigation by the EHRC, because of what has been reported under his watch.

I recently saw some material covering his support for the Serbs during the Bosnian conflict. It was portrayed in a more sensational manner than would be ideal (at least partially along the lines of opposing NATO intervention) but he has had some interesting friends over the years. These things don't matter when you are just a rebelious back bench MP, but they do when you are going for the job of PM (or should be - looking at Boris's Russian mates right now...)

Quite. Agree with all of this post. I'm by no means a Corbyn fan at all. But to call him an antisemite is libelous. Plain and simple.

About as libellous as all the other comments about every other politician that you conveniently ignore, now I wonder why?

What comments are those?

I suspect it isn't because the antisemitism in the party is quite an easy defence of it being a reasonable leap.

Is it more libellous than saying a man believes Hillsborough was the fault of Liverpool fans?

I am not sure whether I think he himself is antisemitic, but he certainly doesn't do very well on it. And then you can debate whether allowing such things under his watch would then have him antisemitic as a result.

If you facilitate a racist, are you not then racist yourself? I'm asking that for the sake of devil's advocate rather than saying anyone specific is or isn't

I don't seem to recall any of these issues while Tony Blair was leader of the party so is that much of a stretch to suggest that maybe the leadership of the party is the issue, i'll also point out that my comment could refer to a number of prospective Mps.

To be honest the constant daily mail and Sun jibes are getting pretty bloody boring.

Soul Requiem wrote:I don't seem to recall any of these issues while Tony Blair was leader of the party so is that much of a stretch to suggest that maybe the leadership of the party is the issue, i'll also point out that my comment could refer to a number of prospective Mps.

To be honest the constant daily mail and Sun jibes are getting pretty bloody boring.

I think the situation is that there are always some wierd undercurrents in every party, but that they are kept in check by the mainstream parts. Unfortunately both main parties seem to have been taken over by the nutters.

Soul Requiem wrote:About as libellous as all the other comments about every other politician that you conveniently ignore, now I wonder why?

I'll post this again as you appear to have overlooked it.

What comments?

Soul Requiem wrote:I don't seem to recall any of these issues while Tony Blair was leader of the party so is that much of a stretch to suggest that maybe the leadership of the party is the issue, i'll also point out that my comment could refer to a number of prospective Mps.

To be honest the constant daily mail and Sun jibes are getting pretty bloody boring.

Seem to recall an 80 year old Jewish guy called Walter Wolfgang being beaten up at a Labour conference while Blair was PM..

But as Blair was not a threat to The Establishment a big deal wasn't made.

Been less than 200 complaints of Anti Semitism in the Labour Party out of 500,000 members.

Don't think Labour or it's leader are Anti Semitic....The right is notorious for hating Jews always has been..

But the right won't bring in press regulation or go after Tax Havens...

Anti Semitism is apparently epidemic because Corbyn is leader just as Islamophobia is a non issue in the Conservatives....Because Corbyn is Labour leader...

Walter Wolfgang was forcibly ejected for heckling, nothing to do with the fact he was Jewish, good try though Truss.

He was Jewish and beaten up....If it was a Corbyn conference we never would have heard the end of it.

Just like we had a week of 'Labour Mysogyny' over whispering "Silly Woman" the week before May reinstated two alleged sex offender Mps to help her with her vote of confidence vote.

But 'Sillly Woman' was terrible..

Murdoch loves you just as PT Barnum would have before him..

Unless of course you are being deliberately disingenuous..

Surely not !!!

He's also not offering a shred of evidence that Corbyn himself is antisemitic.

Shocking.

He was Jewish but that doesn't mean that's why he was beaten up.

I'm definitely a reader of the Daily Mail and the Sun who bases his opinions solely on those two papers that despite not reading newspapers at all because they're an outdated media full of bias but do carry on Truss as that's all you have.

I'll take the opinions of Luciana Berger and Margaret Hodge, two respectable women who have themselves been subjected to anti-Semitism within the current Labour party.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:What a load of Bollox...Stop reading the Daily Mail..

Think for yourself..

Sounds like it's you needs to read more widely. What's it like with your head in the sand?

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:He was Jewish and beaten up....If it was a Corbyn conference we never would have heard the end of it.

Just like we had a week of 'Labour Mysogyny' over whispering "Silly Woman" the week before May reinstated two alleged sex offender Mps to help her with her vote of confidence vote.

But 'Sillly Woman' was terrible..

Murdoch loves you just as PT Barnum would have before him..

Unless of course you are being deliberately disingenuous..

Surely not !!!

True, but only because of Corbyn's apparently less than stellar record on addressing it within his Party. As a one off issue under Blair, where for all his faults, I don't recall charges of anti-Semitism being an issue, Wolfgang's religion wasn't really part of the narrative (was it?) and rightly so.

50,000 'New Nurse' pledge includes 19,000 existing ones...

Interesting interpretation of the word... 'New'.

Certainly shouldn't take long to read the Tory blueprint for the next five years..

All three lines of it..

Biggest surprise of this Election is how woeful the Lib Dems campaign has been....If Umunna wins his seat seems a no brainer to replace Ms Swinson with him..

Might be insincere...Principle-less and slimy....

But he would be an improvement.

I've actually been a bit surprised on how poor Johnson has been. We know he's not been great at PMQs which doesn't necessarily play to his strengths and has conducted himself badly in parliament, but he's supposed to be a natural with the people - however, he's been repeatedly heckled, looks uncomfortable and other than the overdone 'Get Brexit Done' (this year's strong n stable?) and the tiring oven-ready Brexit deal metaphor, has not been on top-form with his soundbites. His gaffes might have been endearing as Mayor of London, but they look a liability standing for highest office. He's still likely to win, but this will be more as a result of the Farage stitch up and a more divided opposition than any great political strengths he's brought to the table.

Agree that Swinson has not had a great campaign (so far). She's inherited a party in a good position - numbers swelled by defections and a by-election win, but her relative inexperience shows and dare I say it she doesn't have the likeability that Vince Cable (or even Nick Clegg before he got into power) had. Despite Cable's role in the coalition, there always seemed to be a sense of him keeping some appeal to floating Labour-minded voters who Swinson has been going out of her way to alienate. However, given the unpopularity of both Johnson and Corbyn in many quarters, by default (and well motivated campaigners) she ought to at reach least 30 MPs this election.

What do people think the 'Portillo' moment of election night will be? Which 'big beasts' are going to lose?

In 2017 it was arguably a forlorn looking Clegg losing, in 2015 it was probably collectively the SNP surge/Scottish Labour collapse but the Tories seem to have remained relatively unscathed. If it does prove a bad night for Labour and rest of the opposition I'm hoping we can have a silver lining of IDS losing his marginal seat. Would love to see Johnson lose his seat but I feel he'll hold on. Swinson could be vulnerable to SNP too.

MrInvisible wrote:I've actually been a bit surprised on how poor Johnson has been.  We know he's not been great at PMQs which doesn't necessarily play to his strengths and has conducted himself badly in parliament, but he's supposed to be a natural with the people - however, he's been repeatedly heckled, looks uncomfortable and other than the overdone 'Get Brexit Done' (this year's strong n stable?) and the tiring oven-ready Brexit deal metaphor, has not been on top-form with his soundbites.  His gaffes might have been endearing as Mayor of London, but they look a liability standing for highest office.  He's still likely to win, but this will be more as a result of the Farage stitch up and a more divided opposition than any great political strengths he's brought to the table.

I've said before that his success has relied on people saying they'd heard he was a good orator etc, without having any first-hand experience of it themselves. He could have started the rumour himself for all I know.

Perhaps "Good Orator" means a different thing at Eton

MrInvisible wrote:What do people think the 'Portillo' moment of election night will be?  Which 'big beasts' are going to lose?

In 2017 it was arguably a forlorn looking Clegg losing, in 2015 it was probably collectively the SNP surge/Scottish Labour collapse but the Tories seem to have remained relatively unscathed.  If it does prove a bad night for Labour and rest of the opposition I'm hoping we can have a silver lining of IDS losing his marginal seat.  Would love to see Johnson lose his seat but I feel he'll hold on.  Swinson could be vulnerable to SNP too.

I read with some disappointment that Raab had a 20,000+ majority, but apparently he's vulnerable / being targeted now.

IDS would be fantastic, but Raab and / or Patel would be very sweet too.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/108173/dominic-raabs-tory-predecessor-urges-voters

I'd say that Raab getting re-elected with a massive majority is a certainty, I'd love to Rayner ousted but that won't be happening either.

The Tories are highly unlikely to lose many of the seats they currently hold. Richmond Park (Zac Goldsmith) and Cheltenham (Alex Chalk) appear to be lost causes for the Tories, but other than that I’d doubt there’d be many more casualties. Johnson is as safe as houses and is as likely to lose his seat as Corbyn is. I would wager IDS will survive too. Raab/Patel are also completely watertight.

Labour will suffer quite a lot of losses. Dennis Skinner may finally lose, but I can’t envisage any ‘big name’ losses. Swinson should be fine in her seat. Caroline Lucas is a touch vulnerable.

I don’t think Johnson has been poor this campaign. He’s done what he’s needed to so far - straight bat, don’t rock the boat and cruise home. Theresa May made a complete horlicks by being too ambitious and making errors - Johnson is playing it safe which is all he needs to do against an inept and useless opposition.

Soul Requiem wrote:I'd say that Raab getting re-elected with a massive majority is a certainty, I'd love to Rayner ousted but that won't be happening either.

Might be worth reading that article. (N.B. I'm not saying he will lose his seat.)

We hear a lot about Remain MPs in Leave constituencies, but very little about Leave MPs in Remain constituencies. Mark Francois is another of those.

I did read the article and he's in Tory heartland where Brexit is unlikely to make much difference.

I still wonder how much of a factor the Tories' move to the right will have with traditional Tory voters. If moderate Tory MPs have left the party - and not in ones and twos, let's not forget - is it fanciful to think that moderate Tory voters might look elsewhere too?

It might not make enough of a difference. But I think it's a mistake to think that everyone who's previously voted Conservative is in the bag this time round.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:

MrInvisible wrote:What do people think the 'Portillo' moment of election night will be?  Which 'big beasts' are going to lose?

In 2017 it was arguably a forlorn looking Clegg losing, in 2015 it was probably collectively the SNP surge/Scottish Labour collapse but the Tories seem to have remained relatively unscathed.  If it does prove a bad night for Labour and rest of the opposition I'm hoping we can have a silver lining of IDS losing his marginal seat.  Would love to see Johnson lose his seat but I feel he'll hold on.  Swinson could be vulnerable to SNP too.

I read with some disappointment that Raab had a 20,000+ majority, but apparently he's vulnerable / being targeted now.

IDS would be fantastic, but Raab and / or Patel would be very sweet too.

Agreed. Any of those, particularly Raab or Patel, would be pretty funny.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:I still wonder how much of a factor the Tories' move to the right will have with traditional Tory voters. If moderate Tory MPs have left the party - and not in ones and twos, let's not forget - is it fanciful to think that moderate Tory voters might look elsewhere too?

It might not make enough of a difference. But I think it's a mistake to think that everyone who's previously voted Conservative is in the bag this time round.

You mean traditional Tory voters who care more about their tax rate than anything else?

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:It might not make enough of a difference. But I think it's a mistake to think that everyone who's previously voted Conservative is in the bag this time round.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that, but (according to Ashcroft’s most recent survey) 2017 Tory Remain voters are still 61% likely to vote Tory again (a figure on the increase), well ahead of any other party. Add into the equation that 2017 Labour leavers are 28% likely to vote Tory (a figure also on the increase), and that the Lib Dems are struggling to win over new voters because Swinson is unpopular/revoking Article 50 outright is unpopular, and you can see why the Tories are still polling strongly.

I mean Tory voters who share the politics of Ken Clarke, Rory Stewart, Phillip Hammond, Nick Boles, Sarah Wollaston....

When you have former Tory MPs campaigning against the party, isn't it likely that some voters will be thinking along the same lines?

That's all I'm saying. If Johnson is taking their support for granted, he may regret it.