2019 General Election

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The key questions for me:

How many Leave voters still want Brexit;

Of those who do, how many put Brexit before all else;

What damage the Brexit party will do the the Conservatives' hopes of taking Labour leave seats.

I'd be surprised if Brexit do that well. Might do, again, who knows. But I think Farage burnt his bridges by leaving UKIP, saying he'd leave to join Germany, and, eventually, the sneaking idea that, actually, he's in it for themselves, and the nationalism is just an act. This new plc doesn't really seem to be fooling anyone, and looks more like a protest vote for the EU than anything else.

The polls have been roughly 15% to under 5% lead for the Tories, no? That's a fluctuation in my book.

miaow wrote:Cheating happens, Duty, even if you, personally, don't see it. There's more motivation for partisan behaviour than ever before.

The system we have simply doesn’t allow for cheating at the counting stage (though I do have concerns over postal voting, that’s another matter).

Votes from a random ward are tipped out on the counting table. The person counting, in full view of the observers, puts the various votes into piles of 50 (usually 50) for each party. These bands of 50 are then checked by another teller, who can also be observed. These votes are then piled up in the centre of the counting hall. The ballots are also saved for around a year so they can be re-checked if there is any hint of impropriety.

miaow wrote:I'd be surprised if Brexit do that well. Might do, again, who knows. But I think Farage burnt his bridges by leaving UKIP, saying he'd leave to join Germany, and, eventually, the sneaking idea that, actually, he's in it for themselves, and the nationalism is just an act. This new plc doesn't really seem to be fooling anyone, and looks more like a protest vote for the EU than anything else.

The polls have been roughly 15% to under 5% lead for the Tories, no? That's a fluctuation in my book.

Oh in terms of that sort of fluctuation, yes, but most polls are around the 9-11% mark. We have two at 5-6% and a few at 12-13%.

miaow wrote:I'd be surprised if Brexit do that well. Might do, again, who knows. But I think Farage burnt his bridges by leaving UKIP, saying he'd leave to join Germany, and, eventually, the sneaking idea that, actually, he's in it for themselves, and the nationalism is just an act. This new plc doesn't really seem to be fooling anyone, and looks more like a protest vote for the EU than anything else.

The polls have been roughly 15% to under 5% lead for the Tories, no? That's a fluctuation in my book.

Actually I think Farage burnt the Brexit Party's bridges by refusing to stand candidates in seats where the Tories look strong. I mean, they may not have won them, but not even giving people the choice of voting for them, means they've seriously handicapped themselves. Also sends out the message that they're not serious about trying to win IMO.

Especially given that his overtures to Boris seem to have largely fallen flat. First he said Johnson had moved closer to his idea of Brexit (which led to the decision to stand down a load of candidates)...now he's saying Boris' "oven ready" deal is a turkey.

So at the moment it seems the best we can hope for is a BJ Brexit, which will entail years of wrangling to sort out a trade deal, even if they win with a working majority.

dyrewolfe wrote:

miaow wrote:I'd be surprised if Brexit do that well. Might do, again, who knows. But I think Farage burnt his bridges by leaving UKIP, saying he'd leave to join Germany, and, eventually, the sneaking idea that, actually, he's in it for themselves, and the nationalism is just an act. This new plc doesn't really seem to be fooling anyone, and looks more like a protest vote for the EU than anything else.

The polls have been roughly 15% to under 5% lead for the Tories, no? That's a fluctuation in my book.

Actually I think Farage burnt the Brexit Party's bridges by refusing to stand candidates in seats where the Tories look strong. I mean, they may not have won them, but not even giving people the choice of voting for them, means they've seriously handicapped themselves. Also sends out the message that they're not serious about trying to win IMO.

Especially given that his overtures to Boris seem to have largely fallen flat. First he said Johnson had moved closer to his idea of Brexit (which led to the decision to stand down a load of candidates)...now he's saying Boris' "oven ready" deal is a turkey.

So at the moment it seems the best we can hope for is a BJ Brexit, which will entail years of wrangling to sort out a trade deal, even if they win with a working majority.

This is what angers / depresses me most about the Tories' campaign. They know there's miles to go yet, so to speak, on Brexit, and that the millions who believe them when they say it'll be a doddle will be disappointed, disillusioned, when it's not over soon, but they don't care - they'll be in power. It's so cynical. I pray it doesn't work.

Then again, if people hadn't been allowed to lie about the ease and the benefits of Brexit, it would have died in 2016. Lies sustain it, even now. Thanks, Tories. Thanks a bunch.

Trade deal may be difficult but that doesn't mean we turn away from anything slightly awkward
I genuinely wonder what the poor weather /time of year will do for turnout got to knock it surely.

It's very deliberate. Corbyn having Glastonbury chanting his name in the heat of summer v cold, miserable, skint Britain. Pyschologically speaking, it aides cynicism rather than optimism, and Labour were buoyed on that last time around. Their manifesto hasnt' been nearly as convincing this time around, particularly as they climbed down on the 'no student debt' pledge about a week after losing in 2017.

rumour that boris is in trouble in his own seat

That would be a small but hilarious silver lining.

GSC wrote:rumour that boris is in trouble in his own seat

If it happens it won’t make much of a difference as a Tory MP in an ultra safe seat would stand down post-haste, allowing Johnson to win an easy by-election. Integrity be damned.

if boris loses his seat it will surely be a sign of a larger trend, and not just an anomaly. in which case it would point towards another hung parliament and, potentially, a tory leadership fight.

jeez. who's next...hunt or gove? the absolute backwash of cameron's big society tories.

absolutely not guarantee that boris would remain as leader if he loses his seat. not sure the tory party is united enough, and if they don't win a majority...everything would be up in the air.

Raab and IDS are also hanging on by a tack. If we lose the three of them it will help the pain of a Tory win a little bit.

Again, if major Tories are losing their seats, it really doesn't point to a majority govt.

miaow wrote:Again, if major Tories are losing their seats, it really doesn't point to a majority govt.

Depends where those seats are; Raab is pretty secure but IDS could be in trouble.

Where is this itk coming from?

It'll all be exit polling i.e. surverying what people say when they leave the polling stations.

Exit poll

Conservative 368 seats
Labour 191

Game over

Thank f**k. Slightly bigger majority than predicted. Humiliation for Labour.

Looking good for the SNP too. Lib Dems very poor showing.

That is some exit poll, still think its about 30 seats out.

Duty281 wrote:Thank f**k. Slightly bigger majority than predicted. Humiliation for Labour.

Sorry, don’t agree at all. Labour would have been equally as bad.

It needed a hung parliament with Tories in the most seats to force them to work together and not just act out of self interest.

How can an openly dishonest government having such a big majority be a good thing?

Afro wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Thank f**k. Slightly bigger majority than predicted. Humiliation for Labour.

Sorry, don’t agree at all. Labour would have been equally as bad.

It needed a hung parliament with Tories in the most seats to force them to work together and not just act out of self interest.

How can an openly dishonest government having such a big majority be a good thing?

We’ll wait and see how big the majority is. But we can be certain that it is a majority, even with possible error. A hung parliament would have left the country in the exact same position as six weeks ago and not achieved anything.

If that is true it is clearly dreadful. How anyone can celebrate this knowing what they know about the Tories is flat out crazy. Don't let the noise about 'disruption' and 'getting on with things' confuse the matter. The Tory party is quite clearly a far right party. It's not conservative.

Would have created a strong need for electoral reform. Not a single party with such a strong majority.

It is a strong mandate for the Brexit deal though, so let’s get that through and get on with it.

If that is 55 seats for the SNP then.it is a catehorical call for IndyRef2.

Afro wrote:Would have created a strong need for electoral reform. Not a single party with such a strong majority.

It is a strong mandate for the Brexit deal though, so let’s get that through and get on with it.

Yes, let’s get on with it. Let’s have 4-5 years of a government doing something and being held accountable for their decisions, rather than the last three and a half years of nothing.

If it were 368, that would be a big majority, but not a stupidly-big Blairite majority.

Worst Labour result since 1935 too. Hopefully they’ll clear out the current leadership and reform to a credible opposition.

Yep. Almost certainly the end of the Union as the Tories complete what Thatcher started.

CaledonianCraig wrote:If that is 55 seats for the SNP then.it is a catehorical call for IndyRef2.

I'd say vote share is more important in that regard but good riddance.

Soul Requiem wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:If that is 55 seats for the SNP then.it is a catehorical call for IndyRef2.

I'd say vote share is more important in that regard but good riddance.

It’ll probably be like 2015, where the SNP get just under 50% of the overall vote in Scotland but over 90% of the seats.

Country is fucked. Well done people.

Yep. Voting for the decline of Britain, asset stripping for foreign money, and creating a European tax haven in its place. Think fubar is fair.

even by how far Corbyn has lowered the bar for Labour, this is a colossal failure. Going to be a long 5 years, but longer if they dont install someone credible this time.

GSC wrote:even by how far Corbyn has lowered the bar for Labour, this is a colossal failure. Going to be a long 5 years, but longer if they dont install someone credible this time.

This should have been the result two and a half years ago if May didn’t run such an awful campaign.

The Tories - and Boris, and those backing him - have played the long game. May was never the wanted PM. She was the sacrificial lamb. Can't believe it's worked tbh. Corbyn and Labour are a joke that they didn't try to do more than play student politics.

I wonder if Super voted SNP in the end?

The party who ran ads that were 88% lies hammer the party whos ads were 0%. Populism has won. Games over. Democracy loses.

The BBC’s exit poll makes it a 95% chance that Swinson loses her seat. 99%+ chance that Johnson and Raab retain theirs. 96% chance that Skinner loses. 52% chance that Pidcock loses.

Accuracy? Who knows!

Skinner losing will be delightful.

SNP winning 55 seats will surely spell the end of the UK. They fought this campaign on an independence issue and to win 55 seats really does spell disaster for the UK remaining 4 nations.

Why delightful? Probably a bit past it but far more integrity and connection to the actual Labour party then many in the current leadership of the party.

The issue for the SNP is - how do they force another referendum? They can bang on about it but if the Coservative & Unionist Party majority is big enough, there literally is no mandate. Literally speaking.

Duty281 wrote:The BBC’s exit poll makes it a 95% chance that Swinson loses her seat. 99%+ chance that Johnson and Raab retain theirs. 96% chance that Skinner loses. 52% chance that Pidcock loses.

Accuracy? Who knows!

I know my seat (and it’s neighbour) were predicted 99% Tory in 2017 - and stayed Red. But with that majority, no chance Johnson, Raab or IDS lose.

Hope Swinson holds on. Pidcock losing would be nice.

miaow wrote:The issue for the SNP is - how do they force another referendum? They can bang on about it but if the Coservative & Unionist Party majority is big enough, there literally is no mandate. Literally speaking.

They can't force a referendum, but if they are denied for 5 years by a tory government then this will only make the independence support increase because there will be more fuel added to the fire by saying that the English are blocking our right to decide etc. In 5 years if the election is closer between labour and conservatives and the SNP win again then they will get their referendum but with a lot more public support which will have been built up over 5 years of a tory government denying them.

JDizzle wrote:

Duty281 wrote:The BBC’s exit poll makes it a 95% chance that Swinson loses her seat. 99%+ chance that Johnson and Raab retain theirs. 96% chance that Skinner loses. 52% chance that Pidcock loses.

Accuracy? Who knows!

I know my seat (and it’s neighbour) were predicted 99% Tory in 2017 - and stayed Red. But with that majority, no chance Johnson, Raab or IDS lose.

Hope Swinson holds on. Pidcock losing would be nice.

It doesn't really matter if swinson loses because it will be an SNP gain who are an EU remain party. The problem is that if swinson loses to SNP it adds another SNP member of parliament who wants to break up the UK.

Be careful hoping swinson loses her seat as it could spell the end of the UK.

Muscular-mouse wrote:

miaow wrote:The issue for the SNP is - how do they force another referendum? They can bang on about it but if the Coservative & Unionist Party majority is big enough, there literally is no mandate. Literally speaking.

They can't force a referendum, but if they are denied for 5 years by a tory government then this will only make the independence support increase because there will be more fuel added to the fire by saying that the English are blocking our right to decide etc. In 5 years if the election is closer between labour and conservatives and the SNP win again then they will get their referendum but with a lot more public support which will have been built up over 5 years of a tory government denying them.

Well, yes, but then 5 years is 5 years. That's the point.

It looks like Labour is finished as an electoral force unless some kind of surprising moderation occurs that finds a new niche like New Labour did. The more likely scenario is, at best, Labour peg the Tories back to a slim majority or possibly coalition govt again. Still, that doesn't deliver a mandata for independence or a referendum either.

The Tories have barely ever been more inept, and yet they've held power for a decade and will continue to as well. As the incumbent govt it's only increasingly likely that they hold on to power.

So that's the point. People misues mandate in the media to mean something entirely different. There is no mandate because the SNP cannot bring down the Tory majority if it is anywhere near as sizeable as the exit poll suggests.

Scotland can bang on about 'England blocking their vote'...but yeah, that's generally how it works when you lose. They lost in 2014. Cannot see a Tory govt agreeing to another one. It only happened last time because of the Lib Dems.

Early lead for Labour.

Two up now.

Tories need to get to half time without conceding any more.

Blyth Valley pulls one back for the Tories, what a blistering start.