2019 General Election

First topic message reminder :

The key questions for me:

How many Leave voters still want Brexit;

Of those who do, how many put Brexit before all else;

What damage the Brexit party will do the the Conservatives' hopes of taking Labour leave seats.

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:SNP performance very similar to 2015. Under 50% of the vote in Scotland, but over 90% of the Scottish seats, which is important to bear in mind when considering the chances of Scotland going independent from the U.K. in the near future.

Grieve defeated in Beaconsfield.

I mean, they're not going to get a referendum while Boris is PM and the Tories hold a majority. End of story.

Well does Johnson have a mandate for Brexit? Less than 50% of the electorate. After all that is what the Tories are saying would mean a mandate for independence referendum. And the SNP have a higher share of the electorate in Scotland than the Tories have in the UK.

Duty281 wrote:I think we’ll end up with the Tories getting 340-360 seats, Labour 200-220, Lib Dems somewhere in the teens, SNP in the forties.

Appears to have been broadly accurate, though the Lib Dems fell below my low expectations for them. Turnout was also lower than 2017, which surprised me.

Tory lead is just over 10%, currently, which means the polling companies have had a good night.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:SNP performance very similar to 2015. Under 50% of the vote in Scotland, but over 90% of the Scottish seats, which is important to bear in mind when considering the chances of Scotland going independent from the U.K. in the near future.

Grieve defeated in Beaconsfield.

I mean, they're not going to get a referendum while Boris is PM and the Tories hold a majority. End of story.

Well does Johnson have a mandate for Brexit? Less than 50% of the electorate. After all that is what the Tories are saying would mean a mandate for independence referendum. And the SNP have a higher share of the electorate in Scotland than the Tories have in the UK.

But the SNP are not getting a referendum. Bleat about Brexit all you want but it's not happening.

whisper it quietly but scottish independence involves leaving the eu

GSC wrote:whisper it quietly but scottish independence involves leaving the eu

whisper it quietly but we're leaving it either way

Pr4wn wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:SNP performance very similar to 2015. Under 50% of the vote in Scotland, but over 90% of the Scottish seats, which is important to bear in mind when considering the chances of Scotland going independent from the U.K. in the near future.

Grieve defeated in Beaconsfield.

I mean, they're not going to get a referendum while Boris is PM and the Tories hold a majority. End of story.

Well does Johnson have a mandate for Brexit? Less than 50% of the electorate. After all that is what the Tories are saying would mean a mandate for independence referendum. And the SNP have a higher share of the electorate in Scotland than the Tories have in the UK.

But the SNP are not getting a referendum. Bleat about Brexit all you want but it's not happening.

Yes I know that. Amd it just speaks volumes for this 'union' A supposed 'union of equals' where your voice is not heard. That is NOT anything of the sort.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:SNP performance very similar to 2015. Under 50% of the vote in Scotland, but over 90% of the Scottish seats, which is important to bear in mind when considering the chances of Scotland going independent from the U.K. in the near future.

Grieve defeated in Beaconsfield.

I mean, they're not going to get a referendum while Boris is PM and the Tories hold a majority. End of story.

Well does Johnson have a mandate for Brexit? Less than 50% of the electorate. After all that is what the Tories are saying would mean a mandate for independence referendum. And the SNP have a higher share of the electorate in Scotland than the Tories have in the UK.

But the SNP are not getting a referendum. Bleat about Brexit all you want but it's not happening.

Yes I know that. Amd it just speaks volumes for this 'union' A supposed 'union of equals' where your voice is not heard. That is NOT anything of the sort.

Personally I'm all in favour of dissolving the union. Its an anachronism...a hangover from when we had monarchs who ruled by "divine right".

Unite Ireland. Kick all the Scottish, Welsh & Irish MPs out of Westminster and let them get on with governing their countries as they see fit.

Bets for who gets the blame now the conservatives have a majority? It'll soon be February and people will start to realise its actually the start of brexit. Presumably it'll be the fault of the EU for not negotiating in good faith for the no deal we'll pick up in december?

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

Duty281 wrote:SNP performance very similar to 2015. Under 50% of the vote in Scotland, but over 90% of the Scottish seats, which is important to bear in mind when considering the chances of Scotland going independent from the U.K. in the near future.

Grieve defeated in Beaconsfield.

I mean, they're not going to get a referendum while Boris is PM and the Tories hold a majority. End of story.

Well does Johnson have a mandate for Brexit? Less than 50% of the electorate. After all that is what the Tories are saying would mean a mandate for independence referendum. And the SNP have a higher share of the electorate in Scotland than the Tories have in the UK.

But the SNP are not getting a referendum. Bleat about Brexit all you want but it's not happening.

Yes I know that. Amd it just speaks volumes for this 'union' A supposed 'union of equals' where your voice is not heard. That is NOT anything of the sort.

Your voice was heard, and you lost 45%-55% in the Scottish referendum. Move on and get your one issue party to actually do the job of governing and sorting out Scotland's many problems rather than trying to force something that the electorate doesn't actually want.

If you're speaking of a "union of equals" then why is the SNP trying to force independence at every turn despite already being told that the public don't want it?

Before you mention the election result, more people in Scotland voted to stay in the UK and more voted to leave the EU in Scotland than have ever voted for an SNP government in a general election. Again, the SNP only got 45% of the general election vote. Doesn't translate to a mandate for Independence to me.

Suck it up Craig. In any event, Scotland don't meet the criteria for joining the EU in the first place, debt is too high. Why would you want to leave one union, and then join another? You either want independence or your don't? SNP arguments are about as clear as those who want Brexit, they know they want it, they just can't explain why.

Rejoicing this morning at news of a strong Conservative majority!

Looks like for all the scaremongering by Labour & the Lib Dems and all the promises of free internet for all, the creation of millions of new jobs etc. it appears the electorate have decided its more important to honour the result of the 2016 referendum.

Also a resounding slap in the face to all the "Parliamentarians" who did their level best, for 3 years, to overturn the result of that referendum.

Don't be silly Dyre, the tragic thing about this election is that there could only be one loser.
There was nothing to be gained from either party winning. We're rid of Corbyn which is great, but we're stuck with Boris. Like choosing between a punch in the face or a kick in the balls.

dyrewolfe wrote:Rejoicing this morning at news of a strong Conservative majority!

Looks like for all the scaremongering by Labour & the Lib Dems and all the promises of free internet for all, the creation of millions of new jobs etc. it appears the electorate have decided its more important to honour the result of the 2016 referendum.

Also a resounding slap in the face to all the "Parliamentarians" who did their level best, for 3 years, to overturn the result of that referendum.

Hope you're enjoying waving your little flag.

Parliamentarians were not trying to overturn the result of the referendum, rather trying to properly scrutinise an interim deal that could have massive implications for the entire country. You know that your dear PM has voted down Brexit deals on multiple occasions?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Bets for who gets the blame now the conservatives have a majority? It'll soon be February and people will start to realise its actually the start of brexit. Presumably it'll be the fault of the EU for not negotiating in good faith for the no deal we'll pick up in december?

I think you have to say the majority of the blame has to lie with Corbyn and his outdated, far-left politics that hark back to the 1970s. Plus his failure to deal with the anti-Semitism issue and his refusal to get off the fence, regarding Brexit. Personally, I think that last one was quite logical, but it seems voters wanted him to take a stance.

I think the Brexit Party also helped. Although they didn't win any seats, they picked up 1,000s of votes in many constituencies, helping to reduce Labour's share and allowing the Conservatives to win.

As for the likelihood of a No Deal...I think the size of the majority means Boris can take a few liberties and extend the negotiations, if he wishes.

This election was only ever going to be the start of the process. The serious work starts next year and I wouldn't be surprised if it drags on for a couple of years, depending how the negotiations go.

dyrewolfe wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Bets for who gets the blame now the conservatives have a majority? It'll soon be February and people will start to realise its actually the start of brexit. Presumably it'll be the fault of the EU for not negotiating in good faith for the no deal we'll pick up in december?

I think you have to say the majority of the blame has to lie with Corbyn and his outdated, far-left politics that hark back to the 1970s. Plus his failure to deal with the anti-Semitism issue and his refusal to get off the fence, regarding Brexit. Personally, I think that last one was quite logical, but it seems voters wanted him to take a stance.

I think the Brexit Party also helped. Although they didn't win any seats, they picked up 1,000s of votes in many constituencies, helping to reduce Labour's share and allowing the Conservatives to win.

As for the likelihood of a No Deal...I think the size of the majority means Boris can take a few liberties and extend the negotiations, if he wishes.

This election was only ever going to be the start of the process. The serious work starts next year and I wouldn't be surprised if it drags on for a couple of years, depending how the negotiations go.

Agree with this. But also would like to add that Farage's deal with Johnson not to stand in Tory-held seats was massive.

Pr4wn wrote:

dyrewolfe wrote:Rejoicing this morning at news of a strong Conservative majority!

Looks like for all the scaremongering by Labour & the Lib Dems and all the promises of free internet for all, the creation of millions of new jobs etc. it appears the electorate have decided its more important to honour the result of the 2016 referendum.

Also a resounding slap in the face to all the "Parliamentarians" who did their level best, for 3 years, to overturn the result of that referendum.

Hope you're enjoying waving your little flag.

Parliamentarians were not trying to overturn the result of the referendum, rather trying to properly scrutinise an interim deal that could have massive implications for the entire country. You know that your dear PM has voted down Brexit deals on multiple occasions?

Sorry but thats garbage. They were given multiple versions of the deal negotiated with Brussels and several opportunities to pass the Withdrawal Agreement...but procrastinated and blocked them at every turn.

Yes Boris voted against May's deal, but that was because he (along with the ERG) felt it kept us tied to the EU via the backstop arrangement. Now all those "Parliamentarians" (Johnson's term - not mine) are going to have to live with a deal thats even worse (in their eyes) than the one they blocked.

Pr4wn wrote:

dyrewolfe wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Bets for who gets the blame now the conservatives have a majority? It'll soon be February and people will start to realise its actually the start of brexit. Presumably it'll be the fault of the EU for not negotiating in good faith for the no deal we'll pick up in december?

I think you have to say the majority of the blame has to lie with Corbyn and his outdated, far-left politics that hark back to the 1970s. Plus his failure to deal with the anti-Semitism issue and his refusal to get off the fence, regarding Brexit. Personally, I think that last one was quite logical, but it seems voters wanted him to take a stance.

I think the Brexit Party also helped. Although they didn't win any seats, they picked up 1,000s of votes in many constituencies, helping to reduce Labour's share and allowing the Conservatives to win.

As for the likelihood of a No Deal...I think the size of the majority means Boris can take a few liberties and extend the negotiations, if he wishes.

This election was only ever going to be the start of the process. The serious work starts next year and I wouldn't be surprised if it drags on for a couple of years, depending how the negotiations go.

Agree with this. But also would like to add that Farage's deal with Johnson not to stand in Tory-held seats was massive.

Corbyn's ineptitude was a greater influence. No way that The Brexit Party was responsible for the gulf in seats between Tory and Labour.

dyrewolfe wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

dyrewolfe wrote:Rejoicing this morning at news of a strong Conservative majority!

Looks like for all the scaremongering by Labour & the Lib Dems and all the promises of free internet for all, the creation of millions of new jobs etc. it appears the electorate have decided its more important to honour the result of the 2016 referendum.

Also a resounding slap in the face to all the "Parliamentarians" who did their level best, for 3 years, to overturn the result of that referendum.

Hope you're enjoying waving your little flag.

Parliamentarians were not trying to overturn the result of the referendum, rather trying to properly scrutinise an interim deal that could have massive implications for the entire country. You know that your dear PM has voted down Brexit deals on multiple occasions?

Sorry but thats garbage. They were given multiple versions of the deal negotiated with Brussels and several opportunities to pass the Withdrawal Agreement...but procrastinated and blocked them at every turn.

Yes Boris voted against May's deal, but that was because he thought it kept us tied too closely to the EU via the backstop arrangement.

The deal Boris rejected was almost identical to the one that he put forward himself, except his deal would make Britain markedly poorer. Do you honestly believe that Johnson was, for the first time in his entire life, acting with some integrity here and not just thinking about what advanced his personal ambitions the furthest?

super_realist wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

dyrewolfe wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Bets for who gets the blame now the conservatives have a majority? It'll soon be February and people will start to realise its actually the start of brexit. Presumably it'll be the fault of the EU for not negotiating in good faith for the no deal we'll pick up in december?

I think you have to say the majority of the blame has to lie with Corbyn and his outdated, far-left politics that hark back to the 1970s. Plus his failure to deal with the anti-Semitism issue and his refusal to get off the fence, regarding Brexit. Personally, I think that last one was quite logical, but it seems voters wanted him to take a stance.

I think the Brexit Party also helped. Although they didn't win any seats, they picked up 1,000s of votes in many constituencies, helping to reduce Labour's share and allowing the Conservatives to win.

As for the likelihood of a No Deal...I think the size of the majority means Boris can take a few liberties and extend the negotiations, if he wishes.

This election was only ever going to be the start of the process. The serious work starts next year and I wouldn't be surprised if it drags on for a couple of years, depending how the negotiations go.

Agree with this. But also would like to add that Farage's deal with Johnson not to stand in Tory-held seats was massive.

Corbyn's ineptitude was a greater influence. No way that The Brexit Party was responsible for the gulf in seats between Tory and Labour.

I never said it was? I was agreeing with and adding to what was written above. Strange post.

I dont think even the conservatives could blame corbyn for what will happen next!

Pr4wn wrote:

super_realist wrote:

Pr4wn wrote:

dyrewolfe wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Bets for who gets the blame now the conservatives have a majority? It'll soon be February and people will start to realise its actually the start of brexit. Presumably it'll be the fault of the EU for not negotiating in good faith for the no deal we'll pick up in december?

I think you have to say the majority of the blame has to lie with Corbyn and his outdated, far-left politics that hark back to the 1970s. Plus his failure to deal with the anti-Semitism issue and his refusal to get off the fence, regarding Brexit. Personally, I think that last one was quite logical, but it seems voters wanted him to take a stance.

I think the Brexit Party also helped. Although they didn't win any seats, they picked up 1,000s of votes in many constituencies, helping to reduce Labour's share and allowing the Conservatives to win.

As for the likelihood of a No Deal...I think the size of the majority means Boris can take a few liberties and extend the negotiations, if he wishes.

This election was only ever going to be the start of the process. The serious work starts next year and I wouldn't be surprised if it drags on for a couple of years, depending how the negotiations go.

Agree with this. But also would like to add that Farage's deal with Johnson not to stand in Tory-held seats was massive.

Corbyn's ineptitude was a greater influence. No way that The Brexit Party was responsible for the gulf in seats between Tory and Labour.

I never said it was? I was agreeing with and adding to what was written above. Strange post.

Not really, you claimed that Farage's decision not to stand against Tories in many seats was "massive"? Was it? Tories would have won anyway by the looks of it. Labour we simply awful.

Does it prove people didn’t want a referendum? It’s a different system, you’d have check actual number of voters

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Does it prove people didn’t want a referendum? It’s a different system, you’d have check actual number of voters

Who is that a reply to?

super_realist wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:Does it prove people didn’t want a referendum? (dyrewolfe, 2019) It’s a different system, you’d have check actual number of voters

Who is that a reply to?

Originally, Dyre. But whoever wants to answer it. Or have I not referenced correctly? I’ll edit.

I’ve seen this. It begs the same question of Labour and Brexit, but I’d suggest they’ve moved.

(649/650 seats):

Counting all parties with over 100,000 votes:

Pro-Brexit (Cons + Brexit + DUP): 14.8m.

Anti-Brexit parties (Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + Sinn Fein + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance): 16.6m.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I’ve seen this. It begs the same question of Labour and Brexit, but I’d suggest they’ve moved.

(649/650 seats):

Counting all parties with over 100,000 votes:

Pro-Brexit (Cons + Brexit + DUP): 14.8m.

Anti-Brexit parties (Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + Sinn Fein + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance): 16.6m.

Not sure you can class a party that takes a neutral stance to be Anti-Brexit nor do I think you can say all those who vote Conservative are pro Brexit either.

not sure it really matters, it's clear Boris has a mandate to take Britain out of the EU without a referendum now.

Soul Requiem wrote:

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I’ve seen this. It begs the same question of Labour and Brexit, but I’d suggest they’ve moved.

(649/650 seats):

Counting all parties with over 100,000 votes:

Pro-Brexit (Cons + Brexit + DUP): 14.8m.

Anti-Brexit parties (Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + Sinn Fein + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance): 16.6m.

Not sure you can class a party that takes a neutral stance to be Anti-Brexit nor do I think you can say all those who vote Conservative are pro Brexit either.

It doesn’t matter, he has the power now, but it is enough to stop people crowing on about how this proves a referendum would have gone the same way. It doesn’t. It won’t matter, but we really should stop allowing people to boldly lie.

As for the Labour point, you’re right, but I think the clear shift in voters in Leave areas would suggest their numbers have lost a lot of Brexit voters. I think it’s enough to sit down people bleating on, and that’s all. It’s not an issue, it doesn’t matter now, but it’s a point worth making in response.

Very thin options for Labour in electing their next leader. Starmer probably the best of a poor bunch, but if they end up picking Thornberry or Long-Bailey they’re definitely not going forward.

If Labour were a football club or even a business, Corbyn would have been sacked long ago. Politics is an odd thing.

super_realist wrote:If Labour were a football club or even a business, Corbyn would have been sacked long ago. Politics is an odd thing.

If labour were a football club Corbyn would have had a stadium ban for anti Semitic behaviour

If possible Long-Bailey would be an even worse choice than Corbyn; Thornberry or Starmer would be the sensible choices so will almost certainly be overlooked by the membership.

Duty281 wrote:Very thin options for Labour in electing their next leader. Starmer probably the best of a poor bunch, but if they end up picking Thornberry or Long-Bailey they’re definitely not going forward.

Starmer won't get the job unless there is a big swing away from the Left within the CLP, even if he is the bookies favourite right now.

Long-Bailey currently a clear second favourite, with Jess Philips and Angela Rayner jockeying for 3rd favourite. Thornberry and Cooper head up the current also rans.

Keir Starmer would be an excellent choice which means it wont happen

Surely Labour have to do what will get them elected, not continue with teenage politics which clearly aren't popular.

If the last few years has shown us anything, it's that there is a huge difference between what Labour "should" do and what Labour actually does.

super_realist wrote:Surely Labour have to do what will get them elected, not continue with teenage politics which clearly aren't popular.

They will do whatever the members vote for, and Momentum dominate that. It has seen excellent members of the NEC who have devoted a lifetime to serving the downtrodden removed and replaced by lickspittles. The Momentum Cabal got a clean sweep at the last NEC elections, meaning that the party policy is being driven by what is nationally a pretty small hard core clique.

Cooper or Benn would be my choices, they along with Starmer have been the de facto opposition for four years now anyway.

I voted for Cooper in the last leadership election, but do not get to vote this time.

Jess Phillips has leadership qualities but I think she'll annoy a lot of men and a lot of downtrodden women

sadly this already has "we lost to brexit, not our own policies/leadership" written all over it

I've just heard a moronic Labour lickspittle on Mike Graham blaming the media for Labour's loss and not Corbyn. Talk about delusional.

The poor showing was more than just Corbyn, but he was the biggest factor. Brexit was perhaps secondary. The "media obsession with anti-semitism" will have only been a factor in a small number of seats.

What a god awful day to wake up to this morning. Racist lying tw4t wins a 80 odd seat majority

I think I'm done with trying to vote with my morals rather than my economic head. What's the point of trying to help people who don't seem to want to help themselves? My "home" constituency saw the Tories get their highest ever vote share despite being a poor area with high usage of food banks

I may as well go full Tory, I'll be fine. I have very good medical cover, my future kids will be able to go to private school - think its in my interest to support lower taxes, lower public spending and increase my take home pay

I'll watch from a safe distance as the people who have voted for this crap in droves suffer the consequences, and try not to let emotions drive my analysis and choices for the next 5 political years

super_realist wrote:I've just heard a moronic Labour lickspittle on Mike Graham blaming the media for Labour's loss and not Corbyn. Talk about delusional.

You can't entirely blame the media but when great swathes of the population are too stupid to see through the narrative supplied by the tabloids you have to accept that the media plays a significant role. Sadly the working class his disengaged from critical thinking.

Dolphin Ziggler wrote:I’ve seen this. It begs the same question of Labour and Brexit, but I’d suggest they’ve moved.

(649/650 seats):

Counting all parties with over 100,000 votes:

Pro-Brexit (Cons + Brexit + DUP): 14.8m.

Anti-Brexit parties (Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + Sinn Fein + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance): 16.6m.

Assuming everyone who voted was doing so purely re. Brexit. Doubt that. I certainly didn't vote Green for that reason, so that's one less...

Navy

Nice one voting green.

super_realist wrote:I've just heard a moronic Labour lickspittle on Mike Graham blaming the media for Labour's loss and not Corbyn. Talk about delusional.

Who'd have thought Labour would come to resemble Trump, eh? Strange World.

McLaren wrote:

super_realist wrote:I've just heard a moronic Labour lickspittle on Mike Graham blaming the media for Labour's loss and not Corbyn. Talk about delusional.

You can't entirely blame the media but when great swathes of the population are too stupid to see through the narrative supplied by the tabloids you have to accept that the media plays a significant role. Sadly the working class his disengaged from critical thinking.

This sort of post is a) why we have Brexit and b) at least partly why Boris has a stonking majority.

So people vote Labour to benefit the working classes then dismiss them as not being smart to decide how to vote themselves?

McLaren wrote:Navy

Nice one voting green.

Might as well set fire to your ballot paper