Murray odds to win Wimbledon this year

Wimbledon has officially began.

What do you think are the chances for British hope Andy Murray of finally lifting a long-awaited GS trophy?

The bookies suggest that Murray odds are in the range of 11/2 to 15/2, in average a 16% of probability of winning the trophy.

I personally believe these chances as a little generous and would place Murray's odds between 5 and 10% with:

Federer: 25 to 30%
Nadal: 25 to 30%
Djokovic: 10 to 15%
Others: 10 to 15%

Thoughts?

William HIll have him at 5/1.

worth a fiver!

Camera: if you'd like to bet on Murray check Betfair out where you get a 7.4 quote .

ARod is given a 50 to 1: that's amazing!

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:Camera: if you'd like to bet on Murray check Betfair out where you get a 7.4 quote .

ARod is given a 50 to 1: that's amazing!

[right]

he may as well be 500-1 Roddick has no chance

JK
I have Andy as about a 10% chance, with Roger and Rafa about 33% each, Djokovic about 20% and anyone below the top 4 looking for a miracle - very few players now are really happy on grass (RF, RN, AM and Roddick being the main ones).

As such, I think Murray's odds are a bit ungenerous, but not a big surprise.

dh
I agree more and less with your quote but:

I believe that the group "others" which includes all the players other than the top 4 will need to be quoted realistically around 5 to 10% considering that it adds up the chances of Soderling, Del Potro, Raonic, Berdyc etc.

According to your odds Murray has been treated "generously" by the bookies as he's given an average of 6 to 1 that means 16% probability to succeed.

JK
I meant ungenerous to the punters...

I wouldn't put the chances of a win by other than the top 4 at more than 5% - I know that's fairly extraordinary, but who do you realistically see as getting past two or three of the top 4 on grass? It's much more likely at the USO and AO, because players like Del Potro and Soderling are happy on the hard courts, but they (Del P particularly) do not deal well with the slipperiness of the court surface.

Raonic is the promising break-through player, but he's got a fairly horrid draw - potentially Nadal, Del Potro/Simon, Berdych/ Fish, Murray, Federer/Djokovic. If he wins through that lot, we'll just crown him the GOAT elect now

i think it will djoko, rafa or roger but murray has a genuine chance if he can sustain his form he showed at queens against roddick over 5 sets

dh
Yes, highly unlikely.....I have got the impression that both Raonic and Delpo have what it takes to win a Wimbo but I can't see them winning this year. I think for Roddick this is the very last chance......if there is a chance at all to grasp another gs

JK
Don't see much hope for Roddick this year - Murray took him apart fairly comprehensively at Queens last week, and AR is not the player he was a couple of years ago.

I'm not convinced Del Potro will ever be a big threat on the grass - yes he has the power in his game, but it's the questions of whether he can adjust to the movement required and to the low bounce of sliced shots. Safin never managed it, and was equally talented (although much less hard-working).

Raonic seems to be ths year's bandwagon, but as you said, this Wimbledon has come a bit too soon especially because of his position in the draw.

Should Murrya get to semi's as estimated, he just HAS to take the 1st set against Nadal. He aint going to win from behind.

Josiah, you still haven't read the pm I sent you. Please can you read it before continuing to post on the board? Failure to do so will result in your ban being reinstated.

I forgot Tsonga who has played some great tennis against Nadal and Murray at Queens and has a game made for the grass.

If Murray has a 8 to 10% chance overall Tsonga must be quoted somewhere near 3 to 4%.....

jm

If Nadal has a bad day and is taken out early , it will be a big boost to Murray's chances, particularly in a final against Djokovic rather than Fed . Otherwise, it will take a titanic effort to battle past Nadal and than past Fed on Fed's favourite surface....

Well there will always be a First Time for everything JK !
Have you got your Wimbledon *Guests* lined up for a
sob fest in 14 days time !

Very sorry Yummy,

There is no space for sentimentalism in here but only for ice-cold math fuelled algebraic objectivity. I therefore, in case you need any emotional comfort, redirect you to the article "The Murray moaners keep on moaning" on other forums pastures.

Please accept as a token of my consideration a big

It's basically the Premiership last season....

Rafa = Utd
Federer = Chelsea
Djovakic = Arsenal
Murray = Spurs/Man City

brady ,
andy roddick = liverpool and berdych = everton

Roddick's chances are better than Goran's in 2001 :run1:

erictheblueuk wrote:Roddick's chances are better than Goran's in 2001 :run1:

Is there an emergency Roddick waiting in the wings for a convenient rain break?

i dont believe murray will win this year, i would prob have a cheeky bet on roddick rather than wasting my money on murray

ironclad wrote:i dont believe murray will win this year, i would prob have a cheeky bet on roddick rather than wasting my money on murray

Obviously Murray outright quotes in the range of 5/1 and 6/1 ( which imply a probability of 16-20%) look like a great deal for the bookies and only god knows how much money did they make on Murray in the past years. Should Murray had delivered this expectations in the past he would be a multi slam champion by now.

On the contrary Roddick's 50/1 seems to me totally unjustified given his past record and the way he is playing.

JK

Not sure I'd call Roddick at 50/1 totally unjustified. He did get fairly comprehensively tanked by Murray (his prospective QF opponent) at Queens. I would say though that it isn't a bad value bet - indeed, I'd be looking to get a few quid on both Roddick and Tsonga reaching the SF, but I think them winning the title is a little optimistic against the current top 4.

I saw the match at Qeens but let's not forget that this is a minor event and has nothing to do with Wimbo. I think Roddick played very bad and Murray exceptionally well. For the quarters I consider Murray the favourite by a smaller margin: say 60 to 40. Possibly another 5 setter in the making.

Tsonga and Del Potro in my view have also some chances.

JK
You haven't seen Del Potro's 'Bambi on ice' impression then? The guy can't move on grass (to the extent he lobbed his shoes out of the court last night).

Oh, and have a look at the Murray v Roddick H2H - the Wimbledon SF of a couple of years ago was a bit of a freak result, otherwise Murray is fairly dominant - he's such a good returner especially of hard serves that he really nullifies Roddick's big asset.

DH

Delpo is very young and he's got plenty of room for improvement, just like Nadal in any surface other than clay 5 yrs ago. To me he'll be a big force soon.

Rod-Murray: in slam H2H is 1-1. If Rod serve is on fire like is the case in these early rounds he's a threat. Think 40 - 60 is fair.

Delpo needs a slice shot if he is to succeed on Grass. This is something he hasn't got.

LK: Delpo slice BH is greatly improved and he's used the slice repeatedly against Rochus. Also if you have what in my view is the most solid BH on tour you need it less.

Soild win for Delpo today.

Problem is JK, when you play opposition that doesn't feed the BH side that is when he will run into problems. I don't think his BH is the most solid on tour at the moment.

Delpo has shown that he is unable to handle players with great variation in their arsenal.

It was a solid win for him today

Rochus has variety in his game but lacks in power. Next round: although Simon is a good quality opponent I still pick Delpo to win.

Problem is: can he challenge Nadal? I think there may be a surprise in this quarter.....

If Simon was anywhere near the form he was showing 3 years ago, I am sure he would take Delpo in straight sets. But this is a different Simon, woefully out of form and not had a strong showing in a Slam event for years.

Delpo wouldn't get anywhere near Nadal on Grass. Delpo is still getting fit, and to expect a guy without a good showing at Wimbledon to win the tournament outright insane.

Rochus is not near the calibre of the players we are looking at Delpo to challenge.

Delpo hits balls with pace and very much entices players to try and out-hit him. The big 4 would take him out of his comfort zone.

[quote="legendkillar"]If Simon was anywhere near the form he was showing 3 years ago, I am sure he would take Delpo in straight sets. But this is a different Simon, woefully out of form and not had a strong showing in a Slam event for years.

Delpo wouldn't get anywhere near Nadal on Grass. Delpo is still getting fit, and to expect a guy without a good showing at Wimbledon to win the tournament outright insane.

oooops: here there is a case of moderator that need to be moderated??!!

I NEVER said I expect him to win this W, I said "can he challenge Nadal?". I confirm I believe he is with Tsonga one of the few outsiders that can do the job.

As for the so called big 4: I think it insane to include in the same cluster player with the track record of Federer and Nadal with anybody else on tour