Djokovic Vs Nadal Final - Who Will Win?

Now that it looks like Djokovic's biggest threat Federer is out, it looks like the most anticipated final (besides Federer vs Nadal) is going to happen, Djokovic vs Nadal. Who will win? All the signs look set for a brilliant match.

The only thing I'll predict is a 5 set match, but who do you think will win?

Although it's a hard call and although Djokovic has had his wobbles, I'll put him down as marginal favourite. What do everyone else think?

Djokovic did say not too long after his Australian Open win earlier in the year that he would be targeting Wimbledon, will he take it?

I think you are slightly premature there.

Really - I take it you have a crystal ball!

Maybe a bit premature, but a good debate and Djokovic did say he is targetting Wimbledon.

It's only a topic thread, there's a good chance it will happen, Djokovic only has to beat one player to get to the final, it's more than possible.

I think both Djoko and Nadal have a lot of tennis to play before they face off

Maybe Nadal has, Djokovic has one more match and he's there, that's not a lot of tennis and a whole lot less then when the tournament began.

I'm just hoping for a great final, I forgot about Murray actually, but I'm definitely sure of Djoko making the final but perhaps there will be more shockers, but I reckon I know which final would get the most interest from tennis fans!

I am not looking past the semi opponents of either of these guys, but assuming that they were to play in the final, I think frankly it would be a win for Novak and maybe a little easier than everyone would think 3 or 4 tight sets but Novak takes it. The reason I say that is that I actually think Novak's game in most areas suits the grass better than Rafa's. He naturally takes the ball earlier goes up the line more, and returns very well on a grass court. Plus the grass court actually helps his serve become more potent. He does have a little more of a problem with low balls and the knifing short slice but all other respects I think Novak with his better serve is a good fit on grass.

Nadal is better than Djokovic on grass. Djokovic struggled vs an 18 year old qualifier. Nadal has been in the Championship match 4 times, proving he's better.

Nadal in 4, if Djokovic can scrape past Tsonga.

I'll be interested to see how Tsonga plays against Djokovic, however if Djokovic beats him reasonably or convincingly, it bodes well for him in the final. Also if Djoko does beat Tsonga it will only highlight how Federer lost his match against Tsonga than a case of Tsonga winning it.

True, but couldn't it be argued that Nadal is better than Djokovic on hard courts and definitely on clay? Yet on both of those surfaces he lost to Djokovic this year and in finals no less. Both of those clay court losses Nadal suffered were in straight sets, which is even more surprising. Nadal may be better on grass but when was the last time they played on grass? It must have been quite a long time ago now?

predicting nadal-tsonga final

On any other surface, I'd say Djokovic, but I think Nadal may still have the edge on grass. Nadal in four tight sets. Of course this is irrelevant as Murray will be in the final

luciusmann wrote:I'll be interested to see how Tsonga plays against Djokovic, however if Djokovic beats him reasonably or convincingly, it bodes well for him in the final. Also if Djoko does beat Tsonga it will only highlight how Federer lost his match against Tsonga than a case of Tsonga winning it.

True, but couldn't it be argued that Nadal is better than Djokovic on hard courts and definitely on clay? Yet on both of those surfaces he lost to Djokovic this year and in finals no less. Both of those clay court losses Nadal suffered were in straight sets, which is even more surprising. Nadal may be better on grass but when was the last time they played on grass? It must have been quite a long time ago now?

Djokovic won two lesser events on clay vs Nadal. Best of 3 is totally different vs best of 5. Where was Djokovic at the French when Nadal was winning it again? Nowhere to be seen.

Nadal and Djokovic met a Wimbledon back in 2008.

Djokovic may have got better in the last 3 years, but Nadal is way better on grass now than he was in 2008.

Are you serious?! Nadal looked unstoppable in 2008, he dropped just one set en-route to the final, not quite the same this year. He looked, quite simply, invincible in 2008, at RG and Wimbledon (he even won his warm up grass court tournament, Queens).

Djokovic has to get to the final, the only other player who's able to consistently beat him is Federer, and he ran into him @ the French Open semi final. Nadal couldn't even push Djokovic to even 3 sets on these 'lesser' clay court tournaments. I'm not sure Nadal would call losing the Spanish title in Madrid a lesser event, he had the home support and still lost. I'm simply intrigued at the possibility of a final between the two because there has been a talk that Djokovic has the mental edge over Rafa this year, just as many have said Rafa has the mental edge over Federer. This mental edge talk didn't exist prior to 2011 because Djokovic hadn't beaten Nadal in 4 finals in a row before. It's quite easily possible that Nadal could and probably is favourite to win, I'm just eager to see what people think of this mental edge. I mean who's beaten Nadal in 4 finals in one year before?

Hmmm where have I seen that posting style before MM?

luciusmann wrote:Are you serious?! Nadal looked unstoppable in 2008, he dropped just one set en-route to the final, not quite the same this year. He looked, quite simply, invincible in 2008, at RG and Wimbledon (he even won his warm up grass court tournament, Queens).

Djokovic has to get to the final, the only other player who's able to consistently beat him is Federer, and he ran into him @ the French Open semi final. Nadal couldn't even push Djokovic to even 3 sets on these 'lesser' clay court tournaments. I'm not sure Nadal would call losing the Spanish title in Madrid a lesser event, he had the home support and still lost. I'm simply intrigued at the possibility of a final between the two because there has been a talk that Djokovic has the mental edge over Rafa this year, just as many have said Rafa has the mental edge over Federer. This mental edge talk didn't exist prior to 2011 because Djokovic hadn't beaten Nadal in 4 finals in a row before. It's quite easily possible that Nadal could and probably is favourite to win, I'm just eager to see what people think of this mental edge. I mean who's beaten Nadal in 4 finals in one year before?

Nadal played very poorly in the Madrid and Rome finals. Around 50%.

Djokovic played lights out, 110%, to beat an below par Nadal.

Nadal at 80% would've beat Djokovic.

ebar86 wrote:predicting nadal-tsonga final

That's what I think too

Masked Magician wrote:

luciusmann wrote:Are you serious?! Nadal looked unstoppable in 2008, he dropped just one set en-route to the final, not quite the same this year. He looked, quite simply, invincible in 2008, at RG and Wimbledon (he even won his warm up grass court tournament, Queens).

Djokovic has to get to the final, the only other player who's able to consistently beat him is Federer, and he ran into him @ the French Open semi final. Nadal couldn't even push Djokovic to even 3 sets on these 'lesser' clay court tournaments. I'm not sure Nadal would call losing the Spanish title in Madrid a lesser event, he had the home support and still lost. I'm simply intrigued at the possibility of a final between the two because there has been a talk that Djokovic has the mental edge over Rafa this year, just as many have said Rafa has the mental edge over Federer. This mental edge talk didn't exist prior to 2011 because Djokovic hadn't beaten Nadal in 4 finals in a row before. It's quite easily possible that Nadal could and probably is favourite to win, I'm just eager to see what people think of this mental edge. I mean who's beaten Nadal in 4 finals in one year before?

Nadal played very poorly in the Madrid and Rome finals. Around 50%.

Djokovic played lights out, 110%, to beat an below par Nadal.

Nadal at 80% would've beat Djokovic.

You don't answer the question MM, why did he play @ 50%? That more or less makes the case that he has the mental edge over Nadal! Maybe the fact he'd lost in 2 finals to Djokovic in back to back tournaments was playing on his mind? That's exactly what many people have said about Rafa's edge over Federer, Fed doesn't play the same. You've made the point better than anyone else could have. Also, why is it you forget to mention Monte Carlo where Nadal won? Surely he'd be fairly confident winning a clay court tournament heading into Madrid & Rome? He might have been until he met Djokovic.

I think Tsonga will win Wimbledon.

He's got the tools to beat anyone. His volleying skills are the best of the 4 remaining players.

Come on Jo-Wilfried

That would be the upset of the tournament, no one predicted that even in the straw poll we had, the biggest Wimbledon shock winner since the guy who beat Henman en-route to the final!

luciusmann wrote:

Masked Magician wrote:

luciusmann wrote:Are you serious?! Nadal looked unstoppable in 2008, he dropped just one set en-route to the final, not quite the same this year. He looked, quite simply, invincible in 2008, at RG and Wimbledon (he even won his warm up grass court tournament, Queens).

Djokovic has to get to the final, the only other player who's able to consistently beat him is Federer, and he ran into him @ the French Open semi final. Nadal couldn't even push Djokovic to even 3 sets on these 'lesser' clay court tournaments. I'm not sure Nadal would call losing the Spanish title in Madrid a lesser event, he had the home support and still lost. I'm simply intrigued at the possibility of a final between the two because there has been a talk that Djokovic has the mental edge over Rafa this year, just as many have said Rafa has the mental edge over Federer. This mental edge talk didn't exist prior to 2011 because Djokovic hadn't beaten Nadal in 4 finals in a row before. It's quite easily possible that Nadal could and probably is favourite to win, I'm just eager to see what people think of this mental edge. I mean who's beaten Nadal in 4 finals in one year before?

Nadal played very poorly in the Madrid and Rome finals. Around 50%.

Djokovic played lights out, 110%, to beat an below par Nadal.

Nadal at 80% would've beat Djokovic.

You don't answer the question MM, why did he play @ 50%? That more or less makes the case that he has the mental edge over Nadal! Maybe the fact he'd lost in 2 finals to Djokovic in back to back tournaments was playing on his mind? That's exactly what many people have said about Rafa's edge over Federer, Fed doesn't play the same. You've made the point better than anyone else could have. Also, why is it you forget to mention Monte Carlo where Nadal won? Surely he'd be fairly confident winning a clay court tournament heading into Madrid & Rome? He might have been until he met Djokovic.

Sorry but did you watch Monte Carlo or Barcelona?

Nadal didn't play like a 6 times defending champion at Monte Carlo, and lets face it - MC is like his second home after Barcelona.

Nadal was making far too many errors at MC, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome.

Nadal got to near his best, 2010 level, during the latter stages of Roland Garros.

luciusmann wrote:That would be the upset of the tournament, no one predicted that even in the straw poll we had, the biggest Wimbledon shock winner since the guy who beat Henman en-route to the final!

I just love Jo-Wilfried's passion and stunning shot making skills.

He's playing like he did at the 2008 Australian Open.

That's by & by MM, he still won both those tournaments, whether you think he was still below par is sounding rather like what Nadal says, oh, I wasn't playing my best but I still won everything. If I wanted to ask Nadal, then I would. It wouldn't really be that illuminating, I've never heard him say he's played brilliantly (even when everyone else says he has).

It's more than possible Djokovic didn't let him play his best, and Nadal performed worse because of the mental edge Djokovic has, it's more than feasible. Nadal always ups his performance during the latter stages of grand slams, it's a well commented feature amongst commentators.

Interestingly MM, Nadal has never lost a final to anyone but Federer, I'm surprised you think he might, it would be a first.

luciusmann wrote:That's by & by MM, he still won both those tournaments, whether you think he was still below par is sounding rather like what Nadal says, oh, I wasn't playing my best but I still won everything. If I wanted to ask Nadal, then I would. It wouldn't really be that illuminating, I've never heard him say he's played brilliantly (even when everyone else says he has).

It's more than possible Djokovic didn't let him play his best, and Nadal performed worse because of the mental edge Djokovic has, it's more than feasible. Nadal always ups his performance during the latter stages of grand slams, it's a well commented feature amongst commentators.

Interestingly MM, Nadal has never lost a final to anyone but Federer, I'm surprised you think he might, it would be a first.

Nadal may not reach the final!!! Shock horror lol!!!

I think Nadal is more nervous of Tsonga than Murray/Djokovic. Murray/Djokovic play a certain way, Tsonga can easily play lightsout tennis, that can destroy anyone.

Murray will win the final.

Masked Magician wrote:Nadal is better than Djokovic on grass. Djokovic struggled vs an 18 year old qualifier. Nadal has been in the Championship match 4 times, proving he's better.

Nadal in 4, if Djokovic can scrape past Tsonga.

Tomic is going to be a dominant player in coming years. He nearly beat Cillic ( he was in top 10 then) at Aussie open 2 years ago. He has a strong game, Nadal was lucky to not to play him. Even Fish made him look ordinary in last 2 sets.

I agree, wow, Tomic will be a real contender. That's why I'm seriously worried this might be one of Fed's last chances of winning another Wimbledon title. After next year I really can't imagine it.

If Murray makes the final, brilliant, I'm looking forward to that match. Both semi finals promise a lot! Also, I'm glad this year's final is looking like it won't be a borefest like last year's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WE4ySCXNJ4

This is how he was chasing and playing against Djoko.

Masked Magician wrote:

luciusmann wrote:That's by & by MM, he still won both those tournaments, whether you think he was still below par is sounding rather like what Nadal says, oh, I wasn't playing my best but I still won everything. If I wanted to ask Nadal, then I would. It wouldn't really be that illuminating, I've never heard him say he's played brilliantly (even when everyone else says he has).

It's more than possible Djokovic didn't let him play his best, and Nadal performed worse because of the mental edge Djokovic has, it's more than feasible. Nadal always ups his performance during the latter stages of grand slams, it's a well commented feature amongst commentators.

Interestingly MM, Nadal has never lost a final to anyone but Federer, I'm surprised you think he might, it would be a first.

Nadal may not reach the final!!! Shock horror lol!!!

I think Nadal is more nervous of Tsonga than Murray/Djokovic. Murray/Djokovic play a certain way, Tsonga can easily play lightsout tennis, that can destroy anyone.

So why doesn't he? Why has he won next to nothing?

noleisthebest wrote:

Masked Magician wrote:

luciusmann wrote:That's by & by MM, he still won both those tournaments, whether you think he was still below par is sounding rather like what Nadal says, oh, I wasn't playing my best but I still won everything. If I wanted to ask Nadal, then I would. It wouldn't really be that illuminating, I've never heard him say he's played brilliantly (even when everyone else says he has).

It's more than possible Djokovic didn't let him play his best, and Nadal performed worse because of the mental edge Djokovic has, it's more than feasible. Nadal always ups his performance during the latter stages of grand slams, it's a well commented feature amongst commentators.

Interestingly MM, Nadal has never lost a final to anyone but Federer, I'm surprised you think he might, it would be a first.

Nadal may not reach the final!!! Shock horror lol!!!

I think Nadal is more nervous of Tsonga than Murray/Djokovic. Murray/Djokovic play a certain way, Tsonga can easily play lightsout tennis, that can destroy anyone.

So why doesn't he? Why has he won next to nothing?

Tsonga has a history of injures.

He's not like Djokovic, who's all ways happy to default when the going goes tough

I do think there is something in the theory that Djokovic is in Nadal's head in much the same way as Nadal is in Federer's head.
In the four Masters finals they played this year, Nadal became progressively weaker and by Rome it was looking like Nadal simply didn't know how to play Djokovic. It's very rare that Nadal looks out of ideas but that was increasingly how it looked to me.
Things have admittedly changed a little since then. Nadal's form has improved, although he still doesn't look at his best. I would also say that Djokovic has lost that extra something that he seemed to be getting from overwhelming confidence alone. I would suggest that their form is probably about equal.
What makes their match up particularly interesting is that if Djokovic's back hand is working, he is one of the few players who can handle Nadals heavy topspin. This blunt's Nadal's attacking force somewhat as he is faced with the dilemma that his main weapon feeds Djokovic's main weapon. It's a bit like the old philosophical question - what happens when an irresistable force meets an immovable object?
All of this of course comes with the caveat that it wouldn't be a huge surprise if we ended up with a Tsonga v Murray final!

HM Murdoch wrote:I do think there is something in the theory that Djokovic is in Nadal's head in much the same way as Nadal is in Federer's head.
In the four Masters finals they played this year, Nadal became progressively weaker and by Rome it was looking like Nadal simply didn't know how to play Djokovic. It's very rare that Nadal looks out of ideas but that was increasingly how it looked to me.
Things have admittedly changed a little since then. Nadal's form has improved, although he still doesn't look at his best. I would also say that Djokovic has lost that extra something that he seemed to be getting from overwhelming confidence alone. I would suggest that their form is probably about equal.
What makes their match up particularly interesting is that if Djokovic's back hand is working, he is one of the few players who can handle Nadals heavy topspin. This blunt's Nadal's attacking force somewhat as he is faced with the dilemma that his main weapon feeds Djokovic's main weapon. It's a bit like the old philosophical question - what happens when an irresistable force meets an immovable object?
All of this of course comes with the caveat that it wouldn't be a huge surprise if we ended up with a Tsonga v Murray final!

Match-ups - it's all about match-ups.

If we have a Djoko v. Nadal final (and given yesterday's matches that remains an if) it's quite possible that the prospect of having someone across the net whose number Djoko so convincingly had earlier on this year will help him to shake off some of his apparent recent torpor and vice-versa for Nadal.

Djoko's great advantage in that respect is that he had Nadal's number for technical reasons - he knew technically what to do to blunt Nadal's great weapon, which means that he should be able to do it again without having to worry about that aspect of their match-up - similarly Nadal always has a goto tactic against Fed. That helps the mindset of the person with the goto tactic and puts the onus on his opponent to worry about how to deal with it. Of course Nadal is nothing if not adaptable and during the course of RG we saw his confidence return even at a time when the prospect of a Djoko final remained likely - so it would be a fascinating prospect.

A lot of posters think Djokovic may not make it to the final. Here the reasons why I think Djokovic will be able to beat Tsonga:

a) Djokovic will be able to go for the most part, toe to toe with Tsonga, all Fed was able to do yesterday was able to manage that for some points but never consistently, hence the abysmal one break point during the entire match. This in itself will yield Djokovic the match if he keeps toe to toe with Tsonga, just like it did for Murray

b) Djokovic is one of the best returners around so this will help blunt Tsonga compared with Fed

c) More pressure. I think this will be how Tsonga is defeated. If pressure is consistently applied, Djokovic will beat Tsonga. This point is somewhat related to a), in that the more break points on Tsonga, the more pressure on him. It's easy to win when your opponent puts very little pressure on you (as was the case for the last 3 sets), it's harder when they do, that's when you start making more errors (@ least 99% of players).

Something I also noticed a lot in the Tsonga/Fed match was that Fed was having to go to second serve a lot because he missed his first serve a lot (after the first 2 sets), highly uncharacteristic of Fed and this gave Tsonga the chance to attack Fed and win rallies you would think Fed would win and that's what yielded the break points. Look at how irritated Fed got with a line judge (who made some poor decisions it has to be said), that's something I haven't seen before from Fed. A part of this is a reflection that Fed's confidence was diving, how else would he miss so many 1st serves when in the first 2 sets he hadn't done so often.

Anyone seen the Boys Juniors singles match on one of the BBC Internet Streams today. This young 17 year old German player Robin Kern looks remarkably like a young 17 year old Boris Becker back in 1985.

legendkillar wrote:Hmmm where have I seen that posting style before MM?

huh?

MM, I think you should consider the fact that Novak has had his best hardcourt season ever so far in 2011, and his best ever clay court season. Therefore it is probable that this kind of form will carry him through on grass as well. Novak and Rafa haven't played in a long time on grass. Novak's serve is better and he has beaten Rafa 4 times on the trot and on Rafa's favored surface. Personally, Novak's return is the key, he has consistently returned Rafa's serve really well on all surfaces including grass. He holds his serve together I think he can and will breakdown Rafa's serve.

luciusmann wrote:Now that it looks like Djokovic's biggest threat Federer is out, it looks like the most anticipated final (besides Federer vs Nadal) is going to happen, Djokovic vs Nadal. Who will win? All the signs look set for a brilliant match.

The only thing I'll predict is a 5 set match, but who do you think will win?

Although it's a hard call and although Djokovic has had his wobbles, I'll put him down as marginal favourite. What do everyone else think?

Djokovic did say not too long after his Australian Open win earlier in the year that he would be targeting Wimbledon, will he take it?

The Semis aint over until the fat lady sings !!!

socal1976 wrote:MM, I think you should consider the fact that Novak has had his best hardcourt season ever so far in 2011, and his best ever clay court season. Therefore it is probable that this kind of form will carry him through on grass as well. Novak and Rafa haven't played in a long time on grass. Novak's serve is better and he has beaten Rafa 4 times on the trot and on Rafa's favored surface. Personally, Novak's return is the key, he has consistently returned Rafa's serve really well on all surfaces including grass. He holds his serve together I think he can and will breakdown Rafa's serve.

Keep dreaming.

You can't just keep swinging wildly on a grass court, like Djokovic does on H/C and Clay. Nadal's far superior volleying skills would destroy Djokovic on grass.

Swinging wildly. Where would this forum be without this amazing insight on technical ability.

legendkillar wrote: Swinging wildly. Where would this forum be without this amazing insight on technical ability.

It would be lumbered with your good self, no technical knowledge at all :-D

Masked Magician wrote:

legendkillar wrote: Swinging wildly. Where would this forum be without this amazing insight on technical ability.

It would be lumbered with your good self, no technical knowledge at all :-D

Really now? Can you exapnd on swinging wildly and how it hasn't served him well at all?

legendkillar wrote:

Masked Magician wrote:

legendkillar wrote: Swinging wildly. Where would this forum be without this amazing insight on technical ability.

It would be lumbered with your good self, no technical knowledge at all :-D

Really now? Can you exapnd on swinging wildly and how it hasn't served him well at all?

I could do, but these petty arguments spoil my enjoyment of this forum, so I'll kindly decline.

Masked Magician wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Masked Magician wrote:

legendkillar wrote: Swinging wildly. Where would this forum be without this amazing insight on technical ability.

It would be lumbered with your good self, no technical knowledge at all :-D

Really now? Can you exapnd on swinging wildly and how it hasn't served him well at all?

I could do, but these petty arguments spoil my enjoyment of this forum, so I'll kindly decline.

But you couldn't. I am not into petty arguements, but it is funny for a guy who has a 'wild' swing has bested Nadal 3 times in finals this year

legendkillar wrote:

Masked Magician wrote:

legendkillar wrote:

Masked Magician wrote:

legendkillar wrote: Swinging wildly. Where would this forum be without this amazing insight on technical ability.

It would be lumbered with your good self, no technical knowledge at all :-D

Really now? Can you exapnd on swinging wildly and how it hasn't served him well at all?

I could do, but these petty arguments spoil my enjoyment of this forum, so I'll kindly decline.

But you couldn't. I am not into petty arguements, but it is funny for a guy who has a 'wild' swing has bested Nadal 3 times in finals this year

4 times LK

ebar86 wrote:predicting nadal-tsonga final

Another Vote for that here. Out of the 4 Tsonga is actually the one i'd most strongly pick to reach the final, Followed by Nadal, Murray and Djoko

I was a bit hasty, I now think that a Murray-Djokovic final is more than than likely. I hadn't really thought very hard about if Murray had a chance against Nadal, but there's plenty to say he could beat Nadal, especially the number of break points he's yielding against Nadal, grounds for optimism If I was a betting man, I'd put a bet on it! However, I would never bet against Nadal until he's beaten. He's made 5 straight ATP 1000 finals this year(even if he lost 4 of them) and won the French. If the semi final was between Djokovic & Nadal on the other hand....

I had £10 bets on NAdal and Djoko to win the title at the QF stage. I was predicting Fed to go out to Tsonga or Djoko. Once he went out i hedged my bets by backing Murray and Tsonga today. So i collect £11 whoever wins the title out of the 4.

Done the same today With the Womens by backing everyone except Azarenka and hedging Lisicki when she had a 3-0 lead in the first set - now win £8 whoever wins the Final.

Not Djoko/Nadal SF, as 1 and 2 seeds could not meet in SF. Technically it could have been Nadal/ Tsonga and Murray /Djoko.

Well, MM, I think Nadal isn't going to get much chance to volley effectively against Novak. Novak has proven that he is the best returner in the game, having led the ATP in 2010 and so far in 2011. He will get to Nadal's serve if they play in a final, he might lose his serve as well; but one thing will be for sure he will get to Rafa's serve if they play each other. Even when he lost to Rafa regularly it was his serve, fitness, or confidence that has let him down; I don't think that will be an issue for him this time around.

Fedrer's loss has been Rafa's loss

I think if it came down to it, I think Novak will actually show the world that with his old serve back that his game actually plays quite well on grass. He made the semis of wimby as a teenager, lost a tough queen's court final to Nadal and this his 3rd time in wimbeldon semis. People act like he is completely at a loss on that surface. There aren't that many grass court tournaments and he has had Fed and Nadal to deal with, it doesn't mean that he isn't good on the surface. I always scratch my head when people say this is his least favorite surface, when he serves well he can beat anyone on any surface. And in the last 8 months he has been serving well.