Djokovic Vs Nadal Final - Who Will Win?

First topic message reminder :

Now that it looks like Djokovic's biggest threat Federer is out, it looks like the most anticipated final (besides Federer vs Nadal) is going to happen, Djokovic vs Nadal. Who will win? All the signs look set for a brilliant match.

The only thing I'll predict is a 5 set match, but who do you think will win?

Although it's a hard call and although Djokovic has had his wobbles, I'll put him down as marginal favourite. What do everyone else think?

Djokovic did say not too long after his Australian Open win earlier in the year that he would be targeting Wimbledon, will he take it?

What a wonderful day, this is the career validation point for djokovic, this is the first day in the legend of Nole.

Novak is 24 and has won 3 slams, if he continues in the same vain then another 6 in 2 years.

Nole might end up with same no. of slams as rafa. Rafa now have to content with no. 2. I don't think that anyone will ever be able to break record for staying at no. 2 for maximum weeks.

I am waiting for Nole's celeberation, now.

As was I, wow


I'm pretty pleased my prediction was spot on! I did a better than these so called 'pundits' but I don't blame them! hehe, I said yesterday 4 sets, maybe 5 sets to Djokovic.

luciusmann wrote:As was I, wow


I'm pretty pleased my prediction was spot on! I did a better than these so called 'pundits' but I don't blame them! hehe, I said yesterday 4 sets, maybe 5 sets to Djokovic.

I never made any prediction as I did not want to jinx djoko. You know what happened to my earlier predictions

Many were saying that rafa has 5-0 in slams and 5 setter will be a different cup of tea. 2 sets would have been a humiliating loss so 5 sets was definitely a different ball game. <wink>

haha, yeh!

In fact Nadal fans were saying grass doesn't suit Djokovic as well. Let's not forget all the lame excuses.

Lets look at the streaks novak has broken with this 2011 performance. First it was he couldn't beat Rafa in a final, then he did. He couldn't beat Rafa on clay, he never had before, then he did twice. Then he couldn't beat Rafa on a slower clay court at sea level. Then he wins Rome. Now the line was that he couldn't beat Rafa in a best of 5 at a grandslam, well he beat him again. Novak has really grabbed this rivalry by the scruff of the neck.

Remarkably, Federer now has a better head to head than Nadal now. Maybe Nadal will be praying that Fed is drawn on Djokovic's side of the draw in future.

Andy has better h2h against fed, fed has better against djoko, djoko has better against nadal in recent and nadal still has better h2h against djoko, andy and fed.

If you look at percentage (more helpful/accurate), Djokovic's win percentage against Nadal is 42.86% vs 39.13% against Federer.

The head to head is 16-12 or am I missing some thing? This is great from Djokovic but now the heat turns back on again. He must maintain the consistency in defending the points and also staying ahead of the field. It has been a dream year so far.

Looking back, do you have any more predictions MM?

I hope you realise how foolish your denigration of Djokovic looks now. Nadal wasn't even close, comprehensively demolished I'm sorry to say.

Yeah we haven't seen too many more pronouncements from MM or sonic boom for that matter. Where have the Djokovic critics gone?

Supersticiously I dd not post on this thread cause I did not want to jinx Djoko...but frankly I was 100% sure he woudl win. I just could not believe it when his mind went in that 3rd set. Glad he regrouped!

Bravo Novak, chapeau!

Where are you from Keftedaki?

I am Greek, Tenez.

Good french then! Hope it's not too tough there. Welcome in this peaceful forum!

I've lived in London since I was 18 Tenez and that is a looong time ago!

Tenez did you like how many times Novak volleyed and how succesful against Nadal. I think he had nearly 3 times the net approachs of Nadal.

socal1976 wrote:Tenez did you like how many times Novak volleyed and how succesful against Nadal. I think he had nearly 3 times the net approachs of Nadal.

That still doesn't make much, does it?

wow wrote:Andy has better h2h against fed, fed has better against djoko, djoko has better against nadal in recent and nadal still has better h2h against djoko, andy and fed.

You forgot, or chose not to include djoko having a better h2h over "andy"

I must also, of course point out the Grand Slam h2h of fed 6-0 Muzzington in sets. If fed didn't care about bothering to win the womens length matches, then why would I care?

I suppose it was all new to Murray at the time, so for him it was like a major. Good on him for going all out though, it's rather sweet.

consigliare wrote:

wow wrote:Andy has better h2h against fed, fed has better against djoko, djoko has better against nadal in recent and nadal still has better h2h against djoko, andy and fed.

You forgot, or chose not to include djoko having a better h2h over "andy"

I must also, of course point out the Grand Slam h2h of fed 6-0 Muzzington in sets. If fed didn't care about bothering to win the womens length matches, then why would I care?

I suppose it was all new to Murray at the time, so for him it was like a major. Good on him for going all out though, it's rather sweet.

sorry Murray fans, but:



and again,



Too good, I may make you a disciple.



emancipator - magician extraordinaire

Looking back on this thread is fascinating, it's amazing how a number of posters were so accurate on the mental edge in light of what Nadal's said now. Really does go to show tennis is a very mental game.

luciusmann wrote:Looking back on this thread is fascinating, it's amazing how a number of posters were so accurate on the mental edge in light of what Nadal's said now. Really does go to show tennis is a very mental game.

???? Anything but mental actually!

Tenez wrote:

luciusmann wrote:Looking back on this thread is fascinating, it's amazing how a number of posters were so accurate on the mental edge in light of what Nadal's said now. Really does go to show tennis is a very mental game.

???? Anything but mental actually!

Of course tennis is 75% mental toughness Tenez.

If players were not physically fit they wouldn' be able to keep running around
the court for anything from 2-5 hours at a time

yummymummy wrote:

Tenez wrote:

luciusmann wrote:Looking back on this thread is fascinating, it's amazing how a number of posters were so accurate on the mental edge in light of what Nadal's said now. Really does go to show tennis is a very mental game.

???? Anything but mental actually!

Of course tennis is 75% mental toughness Tenez.

If players were not physically fit they wouldn' be able to keep running around
the court for anything from 2-5 hours at a time

Well, yes, you just answered your own question.

Djoko has always been mentally strong to beat Nadal in best of 3. He never did beat him in best of 5 before because it probably was too too physical a challenge. Now that he got fitter, his mental is stronger, but without this new fitness, his mental woudl be nowhere near.

His new fitness gives him peace of mind. Knowing that Djoko can run for ever affects Nadal's mind....not the other way around!

Perhaps Tenez, although what Nadal's said about Djokovic being in his head is very telling.

Also, the record of their matches from Indian Wells/Miami to yesterday @ Wimbledon (very revealing), went from going all the distance to becoming comfortable victories for Djokovic.

Djokovic's fitness doesn't appear to have got better since winning the Australian Open but his victories have got more convincing against Nadal and Nadal's fitness doesn't appear to have got worse either. If these variables have remained constant, how can you end up with close matches in March between the two becoming easy wins in July?

You're downplaying the mental aspect too much. Djokovic has said his mental composure has improved since the Davis Cup, so that's the only part of his game (the mental) which must have improved since then. What Djokovic has said supports what we're hearing from Nadal. I can't see how you can disagree with what both of them have said. Are you saying they don't understand their own tennis well enough or they're colluding in a conspiracy?!

Shouldn't this thread be closed?

luciusmann wrote:Perhaps Tenez, although what Nadal's said about Djokovic being in his head is very telling.

Djokovic's fitness doesn't appear to have got better since winning the Australian Open but his victories have got more convincing against Nadal and Nadal's fitness doesn't appear to have got worse either. If these variables have remained constant, how can you end up with close matches in March between the two becoming easy wins in July?

You're downplaying the mental aspect too much. Djokovic has said his mental composure has improved since the Davis Cup, so that's the only part of his game (the mental) which must have improved since then. What Djokovic has said supports what we're hearing from Nadal. I can't see how you can disagree with what both of them have said. Are you saying they don't understand their own tennis well enough or they're colluding in a conspiracy?!

The mental aspect really intervenes when you have similar strengths. It's very much like in boxing nowadays, you don;t jump on the ring v Mike Tyson if you are not prepared. Well you can but your mental sanity could be questioned. Your physical ability is going to be key to determine what you do with the ball. Can you keep on chasing the ball or do you think you will be better off risking it all in a kamikasee shot?

Here from teh horse's mouth the day before the final:

Q. You've achieved some firsts now for you: No. 1, first Wimbledon final. Now you have another that you're going to try to achieve: beating Rafael Nadal in a Grand Slam. Can you describe that challenge and how the other ones may have helped you prepare for this one?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: Well, it is quite different playing Nadal in a Grand Slam because it's a best of five. So physically we all know that he's superior and he's the strongest player around, you know, most prepared.

So I'm ready for long rallies, you know, long points. You know, I need to be physically ready, which I am. I feel fit in this moment, and mentally obviously motivated. It's my first Wimbledon final.

The four times I won against him this year can probably help me in some ways mentally prior to this match.

It's to be physically ready that gives him the mental strength like you woudl feel mentally stronger to fight against shrimp than against Mike Tyson.

Mental strength comes and go down to physical ability. This is exactly why the player we thought to be the mentally strongest ever, Nadal, is not so strong mentally when he knows he will have to cover lots of grounds and that he will be the more exhausted after the long rallies.

Tenez, this boils down to the eternal question, what came first? The chicken or the egg?

You're saying the physical came along first and I say the mental so there's not going to be any agreement on this. Of course you need some level of great fitness, tennis a physical game, most sports are (that doesn't mean talent can't play a part)! I don' agree that the physical aspect helped him draw confidence to beat Rafa, has he had beaten Rafa before. What's different this year is the consistency of his wins and that they've got better and better. Also, you haven't explained why his victories have become more convincing, because Nadal's fitness hasn't gone down and Djokovic's certainly hasn't improved. I think people can make up their own minds on what they've heard and seen.

All players comment on Nadal's physical prowess but it's certainly not the reason Federer keeps losing to him, you might want to bear that in mind before you dismiss the mental aspect as being irrelevant. Also, what you're saying flies in the face of what nearly all the players have said and they play the game!

luciusmann wrote:Tenez, this boils down to the eternal question, what came first? The chicken or the egg?

You're saying the physical came along first and I say the mental so there's not going to be any agreement on this. Of course you need some level of great fitness, tennis a physical game, most sports are (that doesn't mean talent can't play a part)! I don' agree that the physical aspect helped him draw confidence to beat Rafa, has he had beaten Rafa before. What's different this year is the consistency of his wins and that they've got better and better. Also, you haven't explained why his victories have become more convincing, because Nadal's fitness hasn't gone down and Djokovic's certainly hasn't improved. I think people can make up their own minds on what they've heard and seen.

All players comment on Nadal's physical prowess but it's certainly not the reason Federer keeps losing to him, you might want to bear that in mind before you dismiss the mental aspect as being irrelevant. Also, what you're saying flies in the face of what nearly all the players have said and they play the game!

Unlike the chicken and the egg question, it's obvious which has to come first in tennis. What came first this year for Djoko is his new fitness. Because he was fit enough, he was able to beat Rafa more and more convincingly cause mentally, as you say, he became stronger with the victories. If it was mental first then he woudl have won that USO final, right? What the difference between Djoko 2010 and 2011 if it's not this new fitness everybody has been talking about. He knows he can run relentlessy without having to gasp for air like he used to. That is the key to the new Djoko and it is that fitness that scares Nadal and destroys his spirit!

Of course Federer loses to Nadal down to Nadal's physical game. Has Federer ever lost to a tired Nadal? When Nadal was not as physically impressive he did not win a set against teh top 10 players.

Surely you are aware of this? Aren't you?

It's easy to say tennis is a physical game BUT....There is no BUT! It;s physical full stop. And the two finalists on Sunday where simply the 2 fittest players of teh moment.

In the great plan of things does it really MATTER that much Tenez?

It's almost a question of how long is a piece of string. Everyone has
their own opinion on this subject For heavens sake put the matter
to rest please .

Oh please tenez, you keep harping on physical tennis. If fitness is the essential reason these guys win matches why doesn't Monfils and ferrer have a boatload of slams? Federer is at least as fit as Djokovic, I don't think I actually have ever seen Roger really tired in a match. Not even during Fed's 5 hour battle at rome with Nadal, which was more physically demanding than wimby 08 because there weren't lenghty rain delays it was all pretty much played in consecutively. I really do not see how fitness had such a big impact in a 2 hour 20 minute match. Neither of these guys were even pushed in terms of fitness in that final.

Sampras used to play physically, and he achieved legendary status!

Nothing wrong with it

You watched that French Open 2011, those first 2 sets were close, but once Federer missed that drop shot at 5 - 2, he lost his mental composure and then it was 7 straight game losses to Nadal until he recovered from the collapse, that isn't physical, that was mental collapse and by the time he recovered to take a set off Nadal, it had cost him the match (2 sets down to Nadal is mission impossible).

I do agree that you need to keep up with Nadal but again when Djokovic had his mini meltdown in the 3rd set it wasn't like Federer's because Djokovic was already up 2 sets and he knew that he had the upper hand so it didn't dent him as badly as Federer (who knew it was over after falling 2 sets behind).

Agreed socal. Tenez, you put way too much stock on the physicality aspect of the game and it doesn't do you any credit to keep on and on about it. You detract from the other improvements Djokovic has made to his game and go on and on about his fitness! You'll find very few will agree with you on this.

lucius I think it's both, Nadal simply plays much more aggresive on the clay than Fed does.

socal1976 wrote:Oh please tenez, you keep harping on physical tennis. If fitness is the essential reason these guys win matches why doesn't Monfils and ferrer have a boatload of slams? Federer is at least as fit as Djokovic, I don't think I actually have ever seen Roger really tired in a match. Not even during Fed's 5 hour battle at rome with Nadal, which was more physically demanding than wimby 08 because there weren't lenghty rain delays it was all pretty much played in consecutively.

No more than you keep harping about that great serve which he had when he was 21 as well.

I really do not see how fitness had such a big impact in a 2 hour 20 minute match. Neither of these guys were even pushed in terms of fitness in that final.

That proves you don't understand much of the game I am afraid. The problem is not the length of the match. It;s the pace and length of the rallies. This is what makes the tired player send a FH in the net or long! This is what makes Rafa pull the trigger first whereas against anybody else, they pull the trigger, at their peril, first.

That's what tennis is all about and that is why Nadal and Djokovic have played 5 finals this year. Cause they are simply the fittest players out there.

If you don't want to see it fine, despite being so obvious as that's what all players and journalists talk about!

Tenez, he had the serve at 20 and 21 and lost it. While his serve went into the dumps he had to work on other parts of his game as well as the serve. His volleying is better than when he was 20. His forehand and return are better than when he was 20. And yes he is fitter and healthier. But last year from the early part of they year on we didn't see Djokovic having withdrawal or fitness issues in 2010 outside of the AO the first tournament of the year. But he wasn't winning in the early part of 2010. His serve started to comeback slowly and surely after wimbeldon. He didn't serve particularly great at the year end championships, the indoor season, or the USO final. But it was still better than where it was at the start of the year. Davis cup final, in those two matches Novak served lights out. Once his serve clicked, it was all over for the rest of the tour. Here was a player who for two years, with a dismal serve managed to stay ranked in the top 3, that shows how good the rest of the package had become. He is a much better player technically than he was 2 or 3 years ago as well. Certainly, fitness played a part but if he was serving like last year he wouldn't be winning.

Tenez,

what are your thoughts on Tomic? Where do you see him this time next year?

Tenez wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Oh please tenez, you keep harping on physical tennis. If fitness is the essential reason these guys win matches why doesn't Monfils and ferrer have a boatload of slams? Federer is at least as fit as Djokovic, I don't think I actually have ever seen Roger really tired in a match. Not even during Fed's 5 hour battle at rome with Nadal, which was more physically demanding than wimby 08 because there weren't lenghty rain delays it was all pretty much played in consecutively.

No more than you keep harping about that great serve which he had when he was 21 as well.

I really do not see how fitness had such a big impact in a 2 hour 20 minute match. Neither of these guys were even pushed in terms of fitness in that final.

That proves you don't understand much of the game I am afraid. The problem is not the length of the match. It;s the pace and length of the rallies. This is what makes the tired player send a FH in the net or long! This is what makes Rafa pull the trigger first whereas against anybody else, they pull the trigger, at their peril, first.

That's what tennis is all about and that is why Nadal and Djokovic have played 5 finals this year. Cause they are simply the fittest players out there.

If you don't want to see it fine, despite being so obvious as that's what all players and journalists talk about!

Your point on Nadal's physicality is valid. However, why should there be a negative connotation attached to the physical aspect of Nadal's game?. Physical fitness should always be lauded in sport. Who wants to watch a match with players looking like Uncle Toni huffing and puffing around the court? Physicality is what made Bjorn Borg so great. I watched an HBO special title "McEnroe/Borg: Fire and Ice". In this documentary, all of the personalities featured in the documentary spoke about Borg's remarkable physical fitness. Borg in the documentary was quoted as saying, "I have never felt tired during a tennis match."

Federer is also noted for his extraordinary fitness. As has been noted here, Rome 2006 was a great example and even Wimbledon 2009, where he beat Roddick 16-14 in the final set. Although Roger is not the physical specimen that Rafa is, he was just as fit in his prime. Why do you think he was always in position to hit those amazing shots? He would not have been able to play that way if he was not fit.

So, please stop knocking fitness. It is actually important for the credibility of any sport, let alone tennis.

kemet wrote:
So, please stop knocking fitness. It is actually important for the credibility of any sport, let alone tennis.

I don't knock fitness down. It's essentially the fans of the fit players who want to see that the success of their player is down to fitness.

Having said that we live in an era where an athlete fitness has little to do with genetics and natural ability. A lot of it is science and sport should have little to do with science. Did you watch this video of Lendl and Borg being so slow and exhausted in that 5th set of the FO? They 2 amazing athletes we could somehow relate to. Nowadays none of us can relate to todays athlete. It's a different world and the science behind it certainly prevents the success of more talented players.

Statistics on Service

Aces
5 7
Double Faults
1 1
1st Serve
78% (64/82) 72% (69/95)
1st Serve Points Won
67% (43/64) 72% (50/69)
2nd Serve Points Won
44% (8/18) 53% (14/26)
Break Points Saved
16% (1/6) 50% (3/6)
Service Games Played
16 17
Statistics on Return

1st Serve Return Points Won
27% (19/69) 32% (21/64)
2nd Serve Return Points Won
46% (12/26) 55% (10/18)
Break Points Converted
50% (3/6) 83% (5/6)
Return Games Played
17 16
Statistics on Points

Total Service Points Won
62% (51/82) 67% (64/95)
Total Return Points Won
32% (31/95) 37% (31/82)
Total Points Won
46% (82/177) 53% (95/177)
---------------------------

Above are the serves stats between Nadal (first) and Djoko.

Clearly, it's the return stats thatt made most of the damage on Sunday. The serve stats from Djoko are not that impressive....but winning 55% of Nadal's second serve points...that's huge.