MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 14:06

Afternoon all, as some of you are aware I ran a series of stats articles last season for the Magners League. This year I plan to do the same for the World Cup. As part of this I decided to create a spreadsheet in which I could just input the result of each fixture and how many tries were scored and it would do all the hard work for me.

To test this I entered my best guess at the results of each and every game. It brought up a few interesting (in my opinion Wink

) results which I've listed below.

tl;dr
Here are some of my RWC2011 predictions:

Firstly, the Quarter Finalists - seeded by Total Tournament points scored -
Australia (1)
New Zealand (2)
South Africa (3)
England (4)
France (5)
Ireland (6)
Wales (7)
Argentina (8)

Secondly, I predict that the Tournament final result will be -
Winner: New Zealand
Runner Up: France
3rd Place: Australia
4th Place: South Africa

A few miscellaneous stats -
Australia will finish the pool stages with the most points scored, 193.
- They will also finish with the highest number of tries scored, 21.

Namibia will be the only team who fail to register a single tournament point in the pool stages.

England will finish the pool stages with the best defence; conceding just 50 points and a solitary try.

Pool B will produce the least number of tries with 20.
Conversely, Pool C will produce the highest number of tries with 53.

Samoa will be the only team who scores more than 100 points to fail to reach the knockout stages.

The pool stages will produce just one draw, in the Pool B game between Romania and Georgia.

Tonga, Romania, Georgia, Russia and Namibia will all fail to register a single win.

New Zealand, England, Australia and South Africa will win all of the their pool games.

Italy and Scotland will be the only 6 Nations sides to fail to reach the Quarter Finals.

South Africa will record the biggest win of the tournament with a 65-6 thumping of Namibia.

All of these stats came about by choosing each result in complete isolation of any others. I doubt many of these will be on the money but it's thought provoking none-the-less.

If anyone wants me to tell them what I've predicted for their own team, be it results, points scored, tries scored or whatever, just ask.

by **Biltong** Thu 28 Jul - 14:09

Why can't you give us your full results, it sounds like interesting reading.

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 28 Jul - 14:12

Just out of interest what was your prediction for the quarters, semis and final in terms of who won what by what amount?

by **Biltong** Thu 28 Jul - 14:15

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Just out of interest what was your prediction for the quarters, semis and final in terms of who won what by what amount?

Pete not to be pedantic but idea

Amount = economics Rolling Eyes

Runs = cricket
goals = football
points = rugby

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 14:15

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Just out of interest what was your prediction for the quarters, semis and final in terms of who won what by what amount?

1/4 Finals:
Australia 34 v 23 Wales
England 24 v 28 France
South Africa 32 v 26 Ireland
New Zealand 40 v 16 Argentina

Semi Finals
Australia 25 v 27 France
South Africa 23 v 40 New Zealand

3rd Place Payoff
Australia 39 v 25 South Africa

Final
France 19 v 38 New Zealand

by WillyGilly Thu 28 Jul - 14:16

MMC I'm confused, you say Namibia will fail to score a single point yet you have them scoring 6 points in defeat to Australia. Or have I missed something?

by **Biltong** Thu 28 Jul - 14:17

WillyGilly wrote:MMC I'm confused, you say Namibia will fail to score a single point yet you have them scoring 6 points in defeat to Australia. Or have I missed something?

log points.

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 14:18

biltongbek wrote:Why can't you give us your full results, it sounds like interesting reading.

At the moment the results are all on a spreadsheet and would take a while to convert in a way that's readable but I'll do what I can to do that.

I'll be back in 30mins or so, in the meantime - if you have anything specific you want to know about just ask and I'll respond as soon as I get a chance.

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 14:19

WillyGilly wrote:MMC I'm confused, you say Namibia will fail to score a single point yet you have them scoring 6 points in defeat to Australia. Or have I missed something?

Tournament points Willy. So by that I mean no wins or bonus points.
For the record, I've predicted that they'll score a total of 40 points over the 4 games.

by OzT Thu 28 Jul - 14:22

I think if Oz gets France in the semis they will get thru. It is only England I have a concern in the knock out stages, we seem to stutter against them in the RWC, 3-1 to them i think it is

by MBTGOG Thu 28 Jul - 14:24

WillyGilly,

He meant single TOURNAMENT point.

MMC,

You haven't exactly been brave in your predictions.

Oh and I bet you New Zealand will score more than 200 points in the group stages.

by Luckless Pedestrian Thu 28 Jul - 14:26

Don't you remember 1987 then, OzT? Wink

by GunsGerms Thu 28 Jul - 14:29

Will there be any draws? I believe there have only been two in WC history.

by OzT Thu 28 Jul - 14:31

luckless_pedestrian wrote:Don't you remember 1987 then, OzT?

Thought 87 didn't count as the kiwis won that one??

LOL!!

Yes the French won that one.....

Smile

by RuggerRadge2611 Thu 28 Jul - 14:33

MMC wrote:
Italy and Scotland will be the only 6 Nations sides to fail to reach the Quarter Finals.

If anyone wants me to tell them what I've predicted for their own team, be it results, points scored, tries scored or whatever, just ask.

Fair Article, I would like to know how you came to the conclusion of Scotland being eliminated when the last time we played Argentina we won a test series tour to South America 2-0, and have never failed to qualify for a QF stage of a world cup.

by GunsGerms Thu 28 Jul - 14:33

All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.

by robbo277 Thu 28 Jul - 14:38

Can't argue too much with these predictions. Hope England do better, and would argue that they well might, but these seem as feasible as any other set.

Hopefully we don't see any landslide wins in the pool stages and some of the minnows can be more competitive.

by **Biltong** Thu 28 Jul - 14:43

leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.

You will have a team with 3 players who have played 1 quarter final against a team where the majority have played at least 3 knock out matches.

good luck.

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 14:51

MBTGOG wrote:
You haven't exactly been brave in your predictions.

No, not at all. But I've given my opinion on how I think each one will pan out and this was the end result. I can't see many upsets this year really.

Pools B and D look to be the ones that could be the tightest. At least for the 2nd place team anyway.

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 14:55

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:
MMC wrote:
Italy and Scotland will be the only 6 Nations sides to fail to reach the Quarter Finals.

If anyone wants me to tell them what I've predicted for their own team, be it results, points scored, tries scored or whatever, just ask.

Fair Article, I would like to know how you came to the conclusion of Scotland being eliminated when the last time we played Argentina we won a test series tour to South America 2-0, and have never failed to qualify for a QF stage of a world cup.

Radge,
My prediction for the Argentina v Scotland game was 21-18 to Argentina but I can see that going either way. I see both teams losing to England so the game between each other becomes a knockout essentially.
The reason I went with Argentina is more to do with the fact that they got to the semi finals last time out, albeit 4 years ago now.

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 14:56

leinsterbaby wrote:Will there be any draws? I believe there have only been two in WC history.

I've predicted a dour 9-9 draw between Georgia and Romania. thumbsup

by GunsGerms Thu 28 Jul - 14:59

biltongbek wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.

You will have a team with 3 players who have played 1 quarter final against a team where the majority have played at least 3 knock out matches.

good luck.

Both teams play a very similar style of rugby. Score a lot off first phase, use their kickers a lot both at goal and of course for field position.

SA have a better front row but Ireland are much improved here. Ireland have got the better of SA before in the second row but it could go either way here. Back row both teams are very strong here and would be a he'll of a tussle the Irish backrows better in the loose the SA backrows possibly around the breakdown. Half backs SA are always strong but Sexton is hitting form while it isn't clear who will be playing these positions yet for SA?

The rest of the backs are evenly matched more or less. It would a most interesting battle. I am tipping Ireland because SA appear to be in disarray.

by RuggerRadge2611 Thu 28 Jul - 15:00

MMC wrote:
RuggerRadge2611 wrote:
MMC wrote:
Italy and Scotland will be the only 6 Nations sides to fail to reach the Quarter Finals.

If anyone wants me to tell them what I've predicted for their own team, be it results, points scored, tries scored or whatever, just ask.

Fair Article, I would like to know how you came to the conclusion of Scotland being eliminated when the last time we played Argentina we won a test series tour to South America 2-0, and have never failed to qualify for a QF stage of a world cup.

Radge,
My prediction for the Argentina v Scotland game was 21-18 to Argentina but I can see that going either way. I see both teams losing to England so the game between each other becomes a knockout essentially.
The reason I went with Argentina is more to do with the fact that they got to the semi finals last time out, albeit 4 years ago now.

Fair comment, although I would have to say Argentina are probably not even half the team they were in the last world cup and their rather boring anti-rugby tactic of boot to touch, win line out maul up the tram lines was figured out by better teams since and they were thouroughly bested by Scotland in Buenos Aires almost a year ago to the day.

Whilst I don't expect them to be an easy challenege I fully expect both Scotland and England to beat them on neutral ground.

The rest of your predictions look pretty solid though. thumbsup

by pete (buachaill on eirne) Thu 28 Jul - 15:02

Also Ireland have done well against S.Africa in recent years. You won in the Aviva (and very kindly let us wear green, cheers

) but we've beaten you the majority of the times over the last 5 years have we not?

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 15:03

leinsterbaby wrote:The rest of the backs are evenly matched more or less. It would a most interesting battle. I am tipping Ireland because SA appear to be in disarray.

Not sure I'd go along with that leinsterbaby. The 3rd stringers that PDV has sent to Oz maybe, but not the 20 or so left behind. I have no doubt that they'll be in a very good place come world cup time, and with 4 games under their belts to get them into the swing of things they'll be a dangerous animal by the time we meet them.

Don't get me wrong, I'll believe we can win going into the game, but maybe not that we will.

by GunsGerms Thu 28 Jul - 15:07

MMC wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:The rest of the backs are evenly matched more or less. It would a most interesting battle. I am tipping Ireland because SA appear to be in disarray.

Not sure I'd go along with that leinsterbaby. The 3rd stringers that PDV has sent to Oz maybe, but not the 20 or so left behind. I have no doubt that they'll be in a very good place come world cup time, and with 4 games under their belts to get them into the swing of things they'll be a dangerous animal by the time we meet them.

Don't get me wrong, I'll believe we can win going into the game, but maybe not that we will.

It will be tough, especially because I reckon SA have the best leaders in world rugby in Smit and Matfield but we have some strong leaders too so I am backing Ireland to beat them.

by beshocked Thu 28 Jul - 15:18

MMC have you taken part in Sportguru? If you have then how do you do?

Cannot see France beating England.

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 15:27

beshocked wrote:MMC have you taken part in Sportguru? If you have then how do you do?

Cannot see France beating England.

Sure did, beshocked:

Magners League
You ranked 134 out of 2,191 players on the global leaderboard. Here's how you did in your pool(s):
(1) In the pool 606 Rugby Pub ML you finished 4th out of 37 players

Heineken Cup
You ranked 667 out of 6,867 players on the global leaderboard. Here's how you did in your pool(s):
(1) In the pool 606-TheBigCup you finished 11th out of 48 players

Amlin CC
You ranked 106 out of 1,738 players on the global leaderboard. Here's how you did in your pool(s):
(1) In the pool 606-TheBigishCup you finished 3rd out of 29 players

I wouldn't underestimate France. Again, I predicted that one to be tight. Ending in a 28-24 victory for France. I know England have a great record against them but that has little baring on what will happen should the two sides meet in the world cup.

by Rob B Thu 28 Jul - 15:35

leinsterbaby wrote:
MMC wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:The rest of the backs are evenly matched more or less. It would a most interesting battle. I am tipping Ireland because SA appear to be in disarray.

Not sure I'd go along with that leinsterbaby. The 3rd stringers that PDV has sent to Oz maybe, but not the 20 or so left behind. I have no doubt that they'll be in a very good place come world cup time, and with 4 games under their belts to get them into the swing of things they'll be a dangerous animal by the time we meet them.

Don't get me wrong, I'll believe we can win going into the game, but maybe not that we will.

It will be tough, especially because I reckon SA have the best leaders in world rugby in Smit and Matfield but we have some strong leaders too so I am backing Ireland to beat them.

Mate, Smit?? No way - he's a passenger these days - too old and too slow. I would tip Ireland over SA these days. Their top side will have just 2 tests (and at home ) to prepare. Madness.

by mrsuperclear Thu 28 Jul - 15:38

Interesting predictions MMC. I think you've got the quarter finals that most people would pick (with no disrespect to the Scots who could definitely beat Argentina). After that you've gone a bit left field in a couple of matches though. Would be very interesting if the French manage to beat Australia when very recently they were absolutely thrashed in Paris by them. I'd say most people would say England would beat France too but they're both definitely possible results.

Make sure to throw out the invites for the Sportguru's this year by the way. I missed the Magners and Heineken cup one's last season. You would have had a bit more of a challenge if I was though obviously Whistle

I'm in the summer internationals one at the minute though. You'll find me in 1st come the end of August Cool

by Boyne Thu 28 Jul - 15:40

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Also Ireland have done well against S.Africa in recent years. You won in the Aviva (and very kindly let us wear green, cheers ) but we've beaten you the majority of the times over the last 5 years have we not?

Dont mid Biltong. Hes putting on a brave face , but its just bravado. Hes secretly bricking it. And he knows it.

by MMC Thu 28 Jul - 15:46

How do you fancy our chances against Australia Boyne? That way it'd likely be Wales in the 1/4 instead of South Africa.

by beshocked Thu 28 Jul - 15:50

That's pretty good MMC. I didn't too badly myself in the AP sportguru. Wink

As I have explained to a fair few Irish England perform well against France. I think the recent record is very important.

by GunsGerms Thu 28 Jul - 16:23

Rob B wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:
MMC wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:The rest of the backs are evenly matched more or less. It would a most interesting battle. I am tipping Ireland because SA appear to be in disarray.

Not sure I'd go along with that leinsterbaby. The 3rd stringers that PDV has sent to Oz maybe, but not the 20 or so left behind. I have no doubt that they'll be in a very good place come world cup time, and with 4 games under their belts to get them into the swing of things they'll be a dangerous animal by the time we meet them.

Don't get me wrong, I'll believe we can win going into the game, but maybe not that we will.

It will be tough, especially because I reckon SA have the best leaders in world rugby in Smit and Matfield but we have some strong leaders too so I am backing Ireland to beat them.

Smit might not be the best player of all time but he appears to be a great leader. Must be something special about him to keep Duplessis on the bench. I'd say he would get into the Aus team as I feel Aus' big weakness is they have no stand out leaders.

Mate, Smit?? No way - he's a passenger these days - too old and too slow. I would tip Ireland over SA these days. Their top side will have just 2 tests (and at home ) to prepare. Madness.

by Rob B Thu 28 Jul - 16:31

MMC wrote:How do you fancy our chances against Australia Boyne? That way it'd likely be Wales in the 1/4 instead of South Africa.

I would say if you can beat France by more than 59-16 margin, you might be in with a show. Whistle

by Rob B Thu 28 Jul - 16:34

leinsterbaby wrote:
Rob B wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:
MMC wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:The rest of the backs are evenly matched more or less. It would a most interesting battle. I am tipping Ireland because SA appear to be in disarray.

Not sure I'd go along with that leinsterbaby. The 3rd stringers that PDV has sent to Oz maybe, but not the 20 or so left behind. I have no doubt that they'll be in a very good place come world cup time, and with 4 games under their belts to get them into the swing of things they'll be a dangerous animal by the time we meet them.

Don't get me wrong, I'll believe we can win going into the game, but maybe not that we will.

It will be tough, especially because I reckon SA have the best leaders in world rugby in Smit and Matfield but we have some strong leaders too so I am backing Ireland to beat them.

Smit might not be the best player of all time but he appears to be a great leader. Must be something special about him to keep Duplessis on the bench. I'd say he would get into the Aus team as I feel Aus' big weakness is they have no stand out leaders.

Mate, Smit?? No way - he's a passenger these days - too old and too slow. I would tip Ireland over SA these days. Their top side will have just 2 tests (and at home ) to prepare. Madness.

He wouldn't make the current Aust team. Moore is ahead of him and TPN is the no 1 rake (currently injured). But agree generally Rocky Elsom is not a leader.

by GunsGerms Thu 28 Jul - 16:41

Rocky is still young. Not a leader yet anyway.

by Rob B Thu 28 Jul - 16:54

He's playing like he's 35. I suspect he will go back to Europe after the RWC. He can't get a contract in Australia next year - interesting for an Australian captain.

by Boyne Thu 28 Jul - 16:54

MMC wrote:How do you fancy our chances against Australia Boyne? That way it'd likely be Wales in the 1/4 instead of South Africa.

Id be more confident against Boks to be honest. Oz's backs scare me a fair bit. I think alot will depend on how dominant our tight 5 are that day. We will need to get more than parity at lineout ime to win and our key men will be DOC and Ross.

If we get hockied by Oz we wikll beat the boks. If we win- great. But I am afraid of giving it all in the Oz game, losing by a point and getting tonked by the saffers.

Its a tough one, but if we beat Oz, I will probably spend the rest of the RWC in jail for indecent exposure as I will be seen running down O Connell St in Dublin in nothing but an orange wig and a green scarf.

by KiwiMatt Thu 28 Jul - 16:58

One thing that always gets me with predicting scores this far out is the effect the weather is going to have. Dunedin aside, weather will be very changable for these games. New Plymouth with the raind, Wellington the wind and Auckland four season in one day.

All good fun thought and will be interesting to see how it goes. Will be surprised if someone doesnt break the reacord for a world cup game in nz, so think the 65 high score is a little short...

by OzT Thu 28 Jul - 17:19

"Auckland four season in one day"...

Always thought that was, according to Neil, Melbourne?????

Smile

by red_stag Thu 28 Jul - 17:22

We only get 3 in Ireland. Its NEVER summer.

by Gibson Thu 28 Jul - 17:34

Just ask that Prediction Guru - BATH_BTGOG - he is always top or near top - of all prediction leagues. I reckon he should be banned from SG - for this very reason. Wink

That's really good predictive analysis MMC. As per.

I agree with most of it - the only differ being... Oz instead of France vs NZ in the Final. With Oz to win it.

by Irish Curry Thu 28 Jul - 18:06

[quote="red_stag"]We only get 3 in Ireland. Its NEVER summer.[/quote]

Ah in fairness now red stag we will always get 2 or 3 days that are brilliant in and around May to get our hopes up laughing

, and then it back to cold, rain and gloom Braveheart

by manofgwent Thu 28 Jul - 18:24

Sportguru i's a pain in the bum. Top of my magners pool all season. Forgot to pick about 6 results including the grand final and was popped on the last day. I think I was still in the top 100.
Those predictions are just backing the favourites. There aren't really any shock and when you put the quarter final results I knew it was pants. Wales losing by just 9 points to Australia and scoring 23 points in the process. I don't think. But what's with all these high scoring games? 459 points in the last 8 games? What?what did you feed your stats into? A ZX Spectrum!

by **Biltong** Thu 28 Jul - 19:57

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Also Ireland have done well against S.Africa in recent years. You won in the Aviva (and very kindly let us wear green, cheers ) but we've beaten you the majority of the times over the last 5 years have we not?

Let's talk about those three wins. In 2006 you won courtesy of Ronan O' Gara taking a quick tap penalty 5 meters from the line after Paul Honis gave a clear instruction to John Smit to talk to his players, but yet allowed the try to stand.

In the next game, you beat us comfortably.

In 2009 and 2010 it was one close win for each team.

All those matches were in Ireland in the middle of your cold winter and at the end of a very tough season for our boys who will have played rugby for 10 months and very little rest.

The last time Ireland came to SA and every time before that they lost.

That was in 2004. I do not argue the fact that Ireland is a quality team, But when looking at the experience our current players have at finals RWC rugby, and the quality of our first 22, I see only one result outside of Ireland

by robbo277 Thu 28 Jul - 20:20

Their top side will have just 2 tests (and at home ) to prepare. Madness.

I don't think it is. Send some fringe players away and see who comes in with their reputations in tact, while their first choice players go through training together. Then they really bring it together for their 2 home games and go all guns blazing before the World Cup and, if they win them both, then they'll definitely go into the tournament with confidence.

Then they have 3 winnable but challenging games to really push them. I think South Africa are set up to peak at the right time, which is around the sharp end of the competition.

by mrsuperclear Thu 28 Jul - 20:34

Yeah I'm confident you're right Robbo277. It's important to distinguish between our preparations in 2007 and theirs. We played two tests against Italy and Scotland in the build up to the world cup in awful weather and they really showed up how badly prepared we were. We played some game against Bayonne as well were BOD was punched I think. Just terrible preparation which was not at all enhanced by the fact we weren't training outside of the gym. The South Africans are training outside the gym by all accounts and have two tests against Australia and New Zealand at home to bring them up to speed. It's a completely different set of circumstances and I think they'll be perfectly up to speed come the world cup.

On Biltongbek's point, I've seen you debate this with other people so I know there's no chance anyone is going to change your mind but, while I'd certainly take account of the fact our victories at home should be weighted as such, the teams of old that toured South Africa and lost cannot be compared with the one we have now. Added to that any world cup match we have won't be in South Africa either and the awful and cold winter of Ireland you described won't be far off the weather that will be in place in New Zealand. You may only see one result, and South Africa will definitely be favourites, but I wouldn't be so confident if I were you. Leinster won the HC, Ulster got to the 1/4's, Munster won the Magners and SOB was player of the year. European accolades have come our way this season, unlike SA and the super 15, and we won't be the easy and foregone conclusion you believe, or hope.

by MBTGOG Thu 28 Jul - 20:37

MMC wrote:
leinsterbaby wrote:Will there be any draws? I believe there have only been two in WC history.

I've predicted a dour 9-9 draw between Georgia and Romania.

I think Georgia will actually win this quite well. Maybe 20 points in it.

by robbo277 Thu 28 Jul - 20:42

Georgia beat Romania 18-11 in Tbilisi in March this year in the first leg of the 2010-12 ENC.
In the 2008-10 ENC, Georgia beat Romania 28-23 at home, but Romania won 22-10 in Bucharest (as recently as March 2010).

Not all that much between those two sides. I'd tip Georgia, but only just.

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