About v2MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
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MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by MMC Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:06 am
First topic message reminder :
Afternoon all, as some of you are aware I ran a series of stats articles last season for the Magners League. This year I plan to do the same for the World Cup. As part of this I decided to create a spreadsheet in which I could just input the result of each fixture and how many tries were scored and it would do all the hard work for me.
To test this I entered my best guess at the results of each and every game. It brought up a few interesting (in my opinion
) results which I've listed below.
tl;dr
Here are some of my RWC2011 predictions:
Firstly, the Quarter Finalists - seeded by Total Tournament points scored -
Australia (1)
New Zealand (2)
South Africa (3)
England (4)
France (5)
Ireland (6)
Wales (7)
Argentina (8)
Secondly, I predict that the Tournament final result will be -
Winner: New Zealand
Runner Up: France
3rd Place: Australia
4th Place: South Africa
A few miscellaneous stats -
Australia will finish the pool stages with the most points scored, 193.
- They will also finish with the highest number of tries scored, 21.
Namibia will be the only team who fail to register a single tournament point in the pool stages.
England will finish the pool stages with the best defence; conceding just 50 points and a solitary try.
Pool B will produce the least number of tries with 20.
Conversely, Pool C will produce the highest number of tries with 53.
Samoa will be the only team who scores more than 100 points to fail to reach the knockout stages.
The pool stages will produce just one draw, in the Pool B game between Romania and Georgia.
Tonga, Romania, Georgia, Russia and Namibia will all fail to register a single win.
New Zealand, England, Australia and South Africa will win all of the their pool games.
Italy and Scotland will be the only 6 Nations sides to fail to reach the Quarter Finals.
South Africa will record the biggest win of the tournament with a 65-6 thumping of Namibia.
All of these stats came about by choosing each result in complete isolation of any others. I doubt many of these will be on the money but it's thought provoking none-the-less.
If anyone wants me to tell them what I've predicted for their own team, be it results, points scored, tries scored or whatever, just ask.
Afternoon all, as some of you are aware I ran a series of stats articles last season for the Magners League. This year I plan to do the same for the World Cup. As part of this I decided to create a spreadsheet in which I could just input the result of each fixture and how many tries were scored and it would do all the hard work for me.
To test this I entered my best guess at the results of each and every game. It brought up a few interesting (in my opinion
) results which I've listed below.tl;dr
Here are some of my RWC2011 predictions:
Firstly, the Quarter Finalists - seeded by Total Tournament points scored -
Australia (1)
New Zealand (2)
South Africa (3)
England (4)
France (5)
Ireland (6)
Wales (7)
Argentina (8)
Secondly, I predict that the Tournament final result will be -
Winner: New Zealand
Runner Up: France
3rd Place: Australia
4th Place: South Africa
A few miscellaneous stats -
Australia will finish the pool stages with the most points scored, 193.
- They will also finish with the highest number of tries scored, 21.
Namibia will be the only team who fail to register a single tournament point in the pool stages.
England will finish the pool stages with the best defence; conceding just 50 points and a solitary try.
Pool B will produce the least number of tries with 20.
Conversely, Pool C will produce the highest number of tries with 53.
Samoa will be the only team who scores more than 100 points to fail to reach the knockout stages.
The pool stages will produce just one draw, in the Pool B game between Romania and Georgia.
Tonga, Romania, Georgia, Russia and Namibia will all fail to register a single win.
New Zealand, England, Australia and South Africa will win all of the their pool games.
Italy and Scotland will be the only 6 Nations sides to fail to reach the Quarter Finals.
South Africa will record the biggest win of the tournament with a 65-6 thumping of Namibia.
All of these stats came about by choosing each result in complete isolation of any others. I doubt many of these will be on the money but it's thought provoking none-the-less.
If anyone wants me to tell them what I've predicted for their own team, be it results, points scored, tries scored or whatever, just ask.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by MBTGOG Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:45 am
robbo,
Maybe so but this Romanian side is fading fast. This Georgian side will get better at the world cup with time together. I do see a good win for them.
Maybe so but this Romanian side is fading fast. This Georgian side will get better at the world cup with time together. I do see a good win for them.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:00 am
Mrsuperclear, there is a hundred irish bloggers here telling me that on their home results they will beat us in the RWC.
The only results I have from south of the equator is 7 years ago, that means the Irish want to debate a probable outcome of a match based on favourable conditions only.
If that is the basis of their argument then sadly it is biased assumptions
As the Irish provinces had success in the HC, so have the Bulls and Stormers who between them make up the core of the defending world champions.
I am a lone crusader for my team here, and being the only advocate present I will the point until the match whistle blows
The only results I have from south of the equator is 7 years ago, that means the Irish want to debate a probable outcome of a match based on favourable conditions only.
If that is the basis of their argument then sadly it is biased assumptions
As the Irish provinces had success in the HC, so have the Bulls and Stormers who between them make up the core of the defending world champions.
I am a lone crusader for my team here, and being the only advocate present I will the point until the match whistle blows
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Gibson Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:09 am
Biltongbek,
SA would and should - be favs against the Irish,in the SH. Yes,we do get carried away with AI victories in the NH, when most of your team are at the end of a long hard season and I dont think ye have ever brought a full side to Ireland.
But, we like fairy-tales... and exaggeration. Its in our blood.
This Irish team may beat ye in a RWC though. 1st time I've thought that since 1987. I say may, not will.
SA would and should - be favs against the Irish,in the SH. Yes,we do get carried away with AI victories in the NH, when most of your team are at the end of a long hard season and I dont think ye have ever brought a full side to Ireland.
But, we like fairy-tales... and exaggeration. Its in our blood.
This Irish team may beat ye in a RWC though. 1st time I've thought that since 1987. I say may, not will.
Last edited by Gibson on Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:12 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by mrsuperclear Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:12 am
Biltongbek, I would agree with you that any Irish person calculating their probable outcomes based on home results only is idiotic but, equally, I would put it to you that completely ignoring them is also idiotic. You say that you can only see one result in the world cup so therefore it seems to me you're completely ignoring past results in Dublin. I think the difference between HC success for Leinster, and Bulls and Stormers success in the super 15, is that Leinster success is current, the SA franchises success is past. Equally, you could say that the BOK's victory in Dublin in 2010 is present and ours in o9 and o6 are past. So there's arguments on both sides. Honestly, as I said, I'd put South Africa as favourites in a match in the world cup between us, I just dispute your opinion that there is only one result between us if we meet. That's fairly dismissive and arrogant in my book, and it's also foolish when you look at what Somoa did to Australia the other day. Anything can happen in a one off match.
I totally respect your opinion and your right to press your point though pal and if I were South African I'd possibly have the same view. Odds are we'll find out who was right come October though and, if I was completely off the ball, I'll bow to your superior knowledge and intellect and call you king of 606v2 I really hope that doesn't happen though 
I totally respect your opinion and your right to press your point though pal and if I were South African I'd possibly have the same view. Odds are we'll find out who was right come October though and, if I was completely off the ball, I'll bow to your superior knowledge and intellect and call you king of 606v2
I really hope that doesn't happen though
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:25 am
Mrsuperclear have never been much into being royalty, I have however been debating the outcome of this particular match on various threads for the past week, I have had discussions regarding this with probably half of the Irish fans this week.
I have said numerous times this week that the Irish team is quality, I have also acknowledged their successes in the HC.
But when I read someone saying Ireland will win against SA, There is no other option but to disagree and point to the opposite outcome.
All I know is it will be one hell of a match, and the victor will face the All Blacks
Now just a polite question.
Who do you think has a better chance of beating them?
I have said numerous times this week that the Irish team is quality, I have also acknowledged their successes in the HC.
But when I read someone saying Ireland will win against SA, There is no other option but to disagree and point to the opposite outcome.
All I know is it will be one hell of a match, and the victor will face the All Blacks
Now just a polite question.
Who do you think has a better chance of beating them?
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by mrsuperclear Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:34 am
Of beating the All Blacks (not England )? Obviously South Africa do Biltong. Personally I'd say we have next to 0 chance of beating New Zealand in a world cup in New Zealand when we've never beaten them before.
I think you're possibly confusing "will win" with "can win". I, and as far as I'm aware every Irish person you've been debating with, has said South Africa will be favourites in a match between us and it is far more likely than not that they will win. What I, and I assume the others you have been debating with, have a problem with is that you seem to completely dismiss any chance Ireland have. It's not that we think we will win, it's that we think we can win.
)? Obviously South Africa do Biltong. Personally I'd say we have next to 0 chance of beating New Zealand in a world cup in New Zealand when we've never beaten them before. I think you're possibly confusing "will win" with "can win". I, and as far as I'm aware every Irish person you've been debating with, has said South Africa will be favourites in a match between us and it is far more likely than not that they will win. What I, and I assume the others you have been debating with, have a problem with is that you seem to completely dismiss any chance Ireland have. It's not that we think we will win, it's that we think we can win.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:51 am
Mrsuperclear I beg to differ, Not once this week have I dismissed the Irish or the fact that they COULD win, until tonight that is ( unforunately I am on my phone now and it takes forever to go back to the pervious page)
One of the Irish supporters were bold enough to say Ireland WILL win, and that is where I got a little defensive to say no they won't
One of the Irish supporters were bold enough to say Ireland WILL win, and that is where I got a little defensive to say no they won't
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Taylorman Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:54 am
I think there will be a good number of upsets this cup. Rugby is such a structured game now that everyone's doing the same stuff at a very high standard, the individual skill levels making the difference.
A slip in ones own standards opens the gate for others. Oz didnt have the best team against the Samoans but a 10th ranked team took full advantage and thats a good illustration of what can happen today.
On the day history between nations plays no part in the result and its still 15 against 15. Look at some results since 2010...
ITA bt SCO 16-12
IRE bt ENG v 20-16
SCO v ENG 15-15
ENG bt AUS 21-20
ARG bt FRA 41-13
ENG bt AUS 35-18
WAL v FIJ 16-16
SCO bt SAF 21-17
ITA bt FRA 22-21
IRE v ENG 24-8
AUS v SAM 23-32
Now not wanting to start WW3 but thats 11 matches out of about 80 since 2010 that probably wouldnt have been the fave results with the bookies in some cases the scoreline being the more surprising factor- Eng over Oz at twickers and Ire over eng in 6N for example- neither score was 'expected' by the general rugby public.
So with 48 matches at this world cup and with the home advantage practically neutralised you could expect probably 6-7 results to go against the run of play- mostly in pool and perhaps a couple in knockout.
I reckon thats about right- thing is which will they be...
A slip in ones own standards opens the gate for others. Oz didnt have the best team against the Samoans but a 10th ranked team took full advantage and thats a good illustration of what can happen today.
On the day history between nations plays no part in the result and its still 15 against 15. Look at some results since 2010...
ITA bt SCO 16-12
IRE bt ENG v 20-16
SCO v ENG 15-15
ENG bt AUS 21-20
ARG bt FRA 41-13
ENG bt AUS 35-18
WAL v FIJ 16-16
SCO bt SAF 21-17
ITA bt FRA 22-21
IRE v ENG 24-8
AUS v SAM 23-32
Now not wanting to start WW3 but thats 11 matches out of about 80 since 2010 that probably wouldnt have been the fave results with the bookies in some cases the scoreline being the more surprising factor- Eng over Oz at twickers and Ire over eng in 6N for example- neither score was 'expected' by the general rugby public.
So with 48 matches at this world cup and with the home advantage practically neutralised you could expect probably 6-7 results to go against the run of play- mostly in pool and perhaps a couple in knockout.
I reckon thats about right- thing is which will they be...
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by mrsuperclear Fri Jul 29, 2011 8:07 am
Fair enough Biltongbek 
do you know who the Irish poster was that said we'd win? If it was that 'C'mon Irish' guy take no notice of him, he's a big dirty WUM 
I don't blame you in the slightest telling someone off being equally dismissive of SA's chances against us. In fact I'd do the same thing.
Taylorman, very interesting set of results there and I'd agree with you on all of them being upsets. It's interesting looking at the French. They get hammered by Argentina and Australia, not to mention losing to the Italians, and yet not one of us would be surprised if they beat New Zealand in a few weeks. I hope you're right about the upsets. It's always nice to see the smaller power and underdog win. Just can't wait for it to get started though. I'm like a kid waiting for Christmas. I know we're getting a few presents early with the tri-nations and warm up matches, but dammit I want Santa to arrive with the good stuff
do you know who the Irish poster was that said we'd win? If it was that 'C'mon Irish' guy take no notice of him, he's a big dirty WUM I don't blame you in the slightest telling someone off being equally dismissive of SA's chances against us. In fact I'd do the same thing. Taylorman, very interesting set of results there and I'd agree with you on all of them being upsets. It's interesting looking at the French. They get hammered by Argentina and Australia, not to mention losing to the Italians, and yet not one of us would be surprised if they beat New Zealand in a few weeks. I hope you're right about the upsets. It's always nice to see the smaller power and underdog win. Just can't wait for it to get started though. I'm like a kid waiting for Christmas. I know we're getting a few presents early with the tri-nations and warm up matches, but dammit I want Santa to arrive with the good stuff
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 8:21 am
leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by mrsuperclear Fri Jul 29, 2011 8:31 am
biltongbek wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.
and I thought that lad was alright 
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Taylorman Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:38 pm
By the way biltong. Mrsuperclear. Good conversatuon going on there.
In nz this time of year we're not going to get super high scoring matches like we did in other cups.
Tracks will be slower and therefore a lot more battles of attrition.
The ireland of the england 6N match have a chance of beating anyone. Boks are the boks.
Theyve won two and are defending so anyone would be silly to write them off.
I would pick SA to win that quarter as thats what SA do well. Win tough matches any which way they can. When the chips are down im not sure ireland are quite in that league as big pressure performers on the world stage quite yet so they would have to execute their gameplan at a very high level. But a chance? certainly.
In nz this time of year we're not going to get super high scoring matches like we did in other cups.
Tracks will be slower and therefore a lot more battles of attrition.
The ireland of the england 6N match have a chance of beating anyone. Boks are the boks.
Theyve won two and are defending so anyone would be silly to write them off.
I would pick SA to win that quarter as thats what SA do well. Win tough matches any which way they can. When the chips are down im not sure ireland are quite in that league as big pressure performers on the world stage quite yet so they would have to execute their gameplan at a very high level. But a chance? certainly.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Taylorman Fri Jul 29, 2011 3:42 pm
In saying that NZ are in the same boat. For some reason we fail to perform at these so we'll be trying to work that out to.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by GunsGerms Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:25 pm
mrsuperclear wrote:biltongbek wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.
That's my prediction yes. I stand by it. I have already explained why I think it will happen. Saying "and I thought that lad was alright" because you don't agree with their predictions is a bit pathetic. See below some predictions I have made successfully this year but been ridiculed for:
Packers to win last years SuperBowl(before regular season)
Clongowes to win senior cup
Chris Ashton not to score again after Italy six nations match
Leinster to win Heineken cup (bought my finals tickets in Nov 10)
I don't bet a lot but I had money on all the above and was ridiculed for all of them by at least one person on at least one forum. So needless to say I coundnt care less if you think I'm alright or not.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by GunsGerms Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:51 pm
biltongbek wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.
I'll buy you a pint if SA play Ireland and SA win. Maybe I'll go to SA for the upcoming three test series.
Gunsgermsrugbyandsteel
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Boyne Fri Jul 29, 2011 6:58 pm
MBTGOG wrote:MMC wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:Will there be any draws? I believe there have only been two in WC history.
I've predicted a dour 9-9 draw between Georgia and Romania.
I think Georgia will actually win this quite well. Maybe 20 points in it.
There's nothing between the 2 teams. Romania are the next best team in Europe after Italy I reckon.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:10 pm
leinsterbaby wrote:mrsuperclear wrote:biltongbek wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.
That's my prediction yes. I stand by it. I have already explained why I think it will happen. Saying "and I thought that lad was alright" because you don't agree with their predictions is a bit pathetic. See below some predictions I have made successfully this year but been ridiculed for:
Packers to win last years SuperBowl(before regular season)
Clongowes to win senior cup
Chris Ashton not to score again after Italy six nations match
Leinster to win Heineken cup (bought my finals tickets in Nov 10)
I don't bet a lot but I had money on all the above and was ridiculed for all of them by at least one person on at least one forum. So needless to say I coundnt care less if you think I'm alright or not.
Guns, howzit.
Mate you are entitled to make any prediction any way you see fit. I am allowed to do the same, last night Mrsuperclear questioned my dismissive nature towards Ireland, and I explained it to him.
I'll take you up on that drink. By the way, should have known it was you, we have had this debate for yonks now.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by screamingaddabs Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:16 pm
Predictions can be very tricky, especially about the future... 
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by GunsGerms Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:20 pm
biltongbek wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:mrsuperclear wrote:biltongbek wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.
That's my prediction yes. I stand by it. I have already explained why I think it will happen. Saying "and I thought that lad was alright" because you don't agree with their predictions is a bit pathetic. See below some predictions I have made successfully this year but been ridiculed for:
Packers to win last years SuperBowl(before regular season)
Clongowes to win senior cup
Chris Ashton not to score again after Italy six nations match
Leinster to win Heineken cup (bought my finals tickets in Nov 10)
I don't bet a lot but I had money on all the above and was ridiculed for all of them by at least one person on at least one forum. So needless to say I coundnt care less if you think I'm alright or not.
Guns, howzit.
Mate you are entitled to make any prediction any way you see fit. I am allowed to do the same, last night Mrsuperclear questioned my dismissive nature towards Ireland, and I explained it to him.
I'll take you up on that drink. By the way, should have known it was you, we have had this debate for yonks now.
Absolutly Bill, I'd never expect to change a proud South Africans mind on anything rugby related anyway. Always enjoy the banter though. It's about time I made it to SA, been talking bout it for years, the three test series is as good an excuse as any if I can convince the wife and kid.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:22 pm
Well, make a plan, let me know if you are coming. How old is your kid?
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by GunsGerms Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:29 pm
biltongbek wrote:Well, make a plan, let me know if you are coming. How old is your kid?
He is only 3. It's still a way off but I'll let you know. Cheers.
Guns.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:30 pm
Well mine is 7, he can look after him while I celebrate and you drown your sorrows in a local pub.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by MBTGOG Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:43 pm
Boyne wrote:MBTGOG wrote:MMC wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:Will there be any draws? I believe there have only been two in WC history.
I've predicted a dour 9-9 draw between Georgia and Romania.
I think Georgia will actually win this quite well. Maybe 20 points in it.
There's nothing between the 2 teams. Romania are the next best team in Europe after Italy I reckon.
What do you base that on? I would say Georgia are the closest to the 6 Nations sides.
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Don Alfonso Fri Jul 29, 2011 7:55 pm
How can SA lose with the tactical mastermind that is PdV at the helm?
It's all very well talking about the players - I'd take Declan Kidnay over P Diddy any day of the week. There was a long, insightful topic on it earlier in the week that was excellent, at least initially. It offered a comprehensive breakdown on the decline and fall of the Boks, and the massive change in win ratios and failure to bring new blood through. You said yourself on that thread that the players are "older, supposedly wiser, but out of form".
Maybe some Irish fans think so too?
It's all very well talking about the players - I'd take Declan Kidnay over P Diddy any day of the week. There was a long, insightful topic on it earlier in the week that was excellent, at least initially. It offered a comprehensive breakdown on the decline and fall of the Boks, and the massive change in win ratios and failure to bring new blood through. You said yourself on that thread that the players are "older, supposedly wiser, but out of form".
Maybe some Irish fans think so too?
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by Biltong Fri Jul 29, 2011 8:08 pm
Don Alfonso wrote:How can SA lose with the tactical mastermind that is PdV at the helm?
It's all very well talking about the players - I'd take Declan Kidnay over P Diddy any day of the week. There was a long, insightful topic on it earlier in the week that was excellent, at least initially. It offered a comprehensive breakdown on the decline and fall of the Boks, and the massive change in win ratios and failure to bring new blood through. You said yourself on that thread that the players are "older, supposedly wiser, but out of form".
Maybe some Irish fans think so too?
I am sure you are right, but the one aspect of a south african that must never be underestimated is the sheer determination they have when the chips are down.
I am not saying the chips are down, yes PDV is an entity on their own, but despite or in spite of him, you can never write of that will to win.
We have been competing with New Zealand and Australia over the last 4 years despite having a not very astute coach and an antiquated gameplan.
Even under the coaching of PDV we have done better than any other teams against the All Blacks and did decently vs Australia.
vs australia played 10 won 4
vs NZ played 9 won 4
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Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by mrsuperclear Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:28 pm
leinsterbaby wrote:mrsuperclear wrote:biltongbek wrote:leinsterbaby wrote:All I know is Ireland will beat SA in the quarters.
That's my prediction yes. I stand by it. I have already explained why I think it will happen. Saying "and I thought that lad was alright" because you don't agree with their predictions is a bit pathetic. See below some predictions I have made successfully this year but been ridiculed for:
Packers to win last years SuperBowl(before regular season)
Clongowes to win senior cup
Chris Ashton not to score again after Italy six nations match
Leinster to win Heineken cup (bought my finals tickets in Nov 10)
I don't bet a lot but I had money on all the above and was ridiculed for all of them by at least one person on at least one forum. So needless to say I coundnt care less if you think I'm alright or not.
It's nothing to do with not agreeing with your predictions lad. Predict away no matter what the odds. The impression I got from Biltong was that you said Ireland will win no matter what and there's not a single chance in a million years South Africa could win. So, basically, I wasn't saying that because of your predictions but rather because you were being dismissive of any chance South Africa would have (or I thought you were). Anyway, if that wasn't the case apologies for the facepalm pal
And I remember you predicting Chris Ashton not to score again on the old 606 in fairness actually. You weren't called Leinsterbaby on that though were you? Also, no worries not caring about my opinion boss, no one else does either
mrsuperclear- Posts : 346
Join date : 2011-04-27
Age : 35
Location : Dublin
Re: MMC's RWC 2011 Predictions
by GunsGerms Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:47 pm
I started off on BBC 606 called Leinsterbaby the week my son was born (lame name I know) then changed it to Gunsgermsrugbyandsteel and now leinsterbaby again.
GunsGerms- Posts : 12542
Join date : 2011-05-31
Age : 44
Location : Ireland
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