Ireland will beat New Zealand for the first time in 2012.

First topic message reminder :

It will happen in the first test of Ireland's summer tour next year.

History will be made.

March 04 Ireland beat England
Nov 08 Ireland beat SA
June 2012 Ireland will beat NZ

Steve Hanson will admit after the game that the better team on the day won. Ireland will lead for most of the match to claim their second big scalp at Eden Park in a row. They will be hammered in the second test in Christchurch.

Can't wait for this series.

damngoodOvalball wrote:

Feckless Rogue wrote:When is the last time a home nations team beat New Zealand? It has to be England, but you'd have to go waaay back.

It was England in 2003, on the summer tour prior to the RWC. Of the top of my head it was 15-12 or thereabouts. Close anyway.

I think of all the home nations teams that Ireland are the most likely to beat NZ at present. Good luck down there chaps

Yep and the year before they beat them by 3 points

You have to go back to 1993 for the win before that, England by 6 ...then the Lions by 13 if youre getting really desperate for a convincing victory.


Whilst I wouldnt be shocked at all to see Ireland come back on form and win the 6Ns it would be a turn up if they someohow got a win over New Zealand in the near future.

There´s certainly a lot in Ireland´s favour.

Firstly, this time they have 3 matches. Normally they only get to play one-off tests or two at the most. It´s very difficult to keep a side of Ireland´s quality to 0 in a 3 match series.

NZ are notorious slow starters to the season. With Super Rugby dragging on forever now, there will bound to be injuries and very little time for players to re-establish combinations. Ireland on the other hand will have come off club and 6N rugby battle-hardened with a clear idea of best combinations (for example the replacement to BOD who sadly seems unlikely to tour with the team).

I´m not so sure about having problems with a new coach. Hansen has already been in the set up. Most of the coaching staff are being retained. But if Ireland can put pressure on NZ, then Hansen is a gruff character who may not be as shrewd as Henry came to be in terms of deflecting criticism and getting the best out of his players.

So really looking forward to it. I´m a big fan of the 3 match series and hopefully along with Wales and Australia and this series we get to see more of them in the future. There´ll be plenty of support in NZ for Ireland and this is certainly their best chance. Got no problem with your optimism but if the title were NZ will beat Ireland 3-0 next year, there´d be rightfully claims of arrogance. Life is lonely at the top of the world.

I think Stag has it right

Lose the first 2, then win the 3rd against a weaker All Black's side.

Will be great to win one of(if not both) the first 2(cant see it happening though).

These make for Grim reading

New Zealand against Lions and Home Countries (all matches)
P152 L15 Losing % 9.87

New Zealand against Home Countries (all matches)
P101 L9 Losing % 7.89

New Zealand against Home Countries (in NZ)
P42 L2 Losing % 4.54

That's what Ireland are up against!

What would people prefer 6 nations champs or beating new zealand in new zealand?

Golden wrote:What would people prefer 6 nations champs or beating new zealand in new zealand?

Both preferably but I think the latter would be much more significant historically. If I had the choice I'd rather see us beat the AB's.

I'd rather see us beat New Zealand. Only because we've never beaten them. Ever. Which makes it more important than just winning a test match. It's about the reputation of Irish rugby.

I would take a series win in NZ. That would complete a few CVs. Kia people often tell me I'm arrogant, that's fine. I would prefer that than to make excuses and accept defeat easily.

I know that NZ on paper are stronger in nearly every way but when I played rugby against a "better team" it always brought out the best in me and made me want to win much much more. I think this Irish team are a bit like that too, I have played underage with some of them and they were never the sort of people to accept defeat before kick off no matter who they play.

Also as you did I meant to reference the potential amount of Irish fans that would attend as something else in our favour.

I remember when Rocky Elsom left Leinster he wrote an article for the Herald about his experiences in Ireland and how much he genuinely enjoyed it. Talking of the friendships he's made and things like that. Also talking about new experiences like seeing snow for the first time. One of the things he said he's never come across before is something like

I've never seen team mates openly laugh at their chances of winning a game before

I think this may have happened when Leinster were to play Munster the HEC semi final in 2009. That was the most daunting game we faced and Munster were on fire. We did actually win. But I'm not sure this iron-willed self belief exists in all Irish players. It's not a typically Irish trait really. I know BOD's total self belief is supposed to be legendary and infectious though.

Maybe you are right. I agree that self belief isn't very Irish and that is actually something that really annoys me. Lots of people will disagree with me but I don't think Australia have a better squad than us nor do I think they have a much better first 15. However, they have beaten NZ twice in the last couple of years simply because they never doubted themselves. If they can do it then we should be able to also.

It does help they get to play them a lot more than us I suppose. I think we have only met around 20/30 times?

It's something Matt Williams is constantly saying in the Irish media. It's great for Aussie rugby that they play Kiwi's so often at all age levels. For one thing, playing against the best makes you improve. But it also gives them belief they can beat them. Of course they know as well as we do that the Kiwi's are the best and they'll probably win more than they lose against anyone. But the Aussie's have a more clear belief than we do that if they play well enough then they can and will win in any one off game. They're just 15 very good rugby players, not unstoppable machines.

That´s an interesting one leinsterbaby. We fear Australia in NZ because of their self-belief. They do have the best backline in world rugby in my view but they are vulnerable up front. Ireland showed them no mercy and went for the weak spot in the RWC. That performance made you rightly favourites for the Wales match. I sometimes think though Ireland over-embrace their underdog status. The Wallabies never go into a match thinking they could win. They go in thinking how they´re going to win. Not much difference linguistically but mentally it´s bigger than Lomu.

leinsterbaby wrote:

Gatts wrote:You lost to us in the last 6Ns and were well beaten in the RWC so i love this blind optimism, this belief can only be based on it being a home fixture.

Wales are the kings of blind optimism. They also are very inconsistent a team of highs and lows and little in between. I feel they had their high at the WC plus the game will be in Dubln against an Ireland team out for revenge. I fancy our chances even though I agree Wales are good now.

Wow

another bandwagon you've jumped on

how about constructing a sentence yourself instead of hopping on everyone else's anti welsh sentiment like a vulture?

It's not an anti welsh sentiment but a harmless observation.

Think it's a harmless enough observation.

As an Irishman, i'll freely admit I'm using heavily visually impaired optimism when trying to big up my team finally getting one over New Zealand.

Surprise surprise Hanson has been made Kiwi coach. That the first part of the prediction right!

Even the TV tarot card readers could´ve picked Hansen´s appointment. The next part is not so easy.

Yeah you are absolutely right. It was never in doubt, I was kidding really.

leinsterbaby wrote:Yeah you are absolutely right. It was never in doubt, I was kidding really.

Though it may well have made the second part easier LB

Mutter mutter Hanson mutter mutter.

The more times you play a side the better your chances of beating them,Ireland may break there duck.BUT only 5 NH sides have won in NZ since 1903[Lions excluded].NZ in NZ is a big ask,especially if they have a Test Side fully fit.
With a 100% Dan Carter and Ritchie McCaw,as RWC holders. They will not want to drop games first up,as other RWC holders have agains them since 1991.

Kiwireddevil wrote:

leinsterbaby wrote:Yeah you are absolutely right. It was never in doubt, I was kidding really.

Though it may well have made the second part easier LB

Mutter mutter Hanson mutter mutter.

Yes that is one of the factors that lead me to the prediction that Ireland will claim an historic win.

emack2 wrote:The more times you play a side the better your chances of beating them,Ireland may break there duck.BUT only 5 NH sides have won in NZ since 1903[Lions excluded].NZ in NZ is a big ask,especially if they have a Test Side fully fit.
With a 100% Dan Carter and Ritchie McCaw,as RWC holders. They will not want to drop games first up,as other RWC holders have agains them since 1991.

I understand what you're saying and I agree for the most part but I do think that Ireland stand a better chance of beating NZ over there than at home, history suggests this is the case anyway. Also I always think that the best time to beat a team is when they're world champions simply because this will be one of their first matches since lifting the WC. Motivation on a high is often a challenge. What goes up must come down etc.

leinsterbaby wrote:

emack2 wrote:The more times you play a side the better your chances of beating them,Ireland may break there duck.BUT only 5 NH sides have won in NZ since 1903[Lions excluded].NZ in NZ is a big ask,especially if they have a Test Side fully fit.
With a 100% Dan Carter and Ritchie McCaw,as RWC holders. They will not want to drop games first up,as other RWC holders have again's them since 1991.

I understand what you're saying and I agree for the most part but I do think that Ireland stand a better chance of beating NZ over there than at home, history suggests this is the case anyway. Also I always think that the best time to beat a team is when they're world champions simply because this will be one of their first matches since lifting the WC. Motivation on a high is often a challenge. What goes up must come down etc.

The fact that the series hasnt been played means they've got their best chance- thats always the case. It is first up after a world cup but unlike other WCup winners NZ took 3 years to lose a match after winning it last time, winning 16 and drawing one before losing so there isnt a lot of history on the Irish side. Make no mistake, they are up against it.

That said, 3-0 wins aren't common these days and although its unlikely Ireland will win the series they have every chance to either surprise and win first up- as the AB's are notoriously slow starters in the first up June tests- Ireland often pushing them in the past.

But even better, they could learn from the first and/or second and triumph in the third. That would be a better result for them. I'm hoping for the latter for Ireland and as I've said before will be celebrating down at Molly's on Courtney place with the Irish if they do it. They're good enough, and they certainly have deserved a win before now.

Very generous words there Taylorman .

I'm not sure you could say we deserve anything, but hopefully we'll be good enough to go down there and be competitive in all 3 tests and with a bit of luck pull off at least one elusive victory.

First or last test, I don't think there is ever a good chance against the allblacks. The AB's don't drop their level or motivation, so if we are to have a chance of getting anything we'll have to play out of our skins.

Can't wait and it should be a cracker!

Since 1976 (and Ive only removed two walkovers) scores in NZ are:

1976 11-3
1992 24-21
2002 15-6
2006 34-23
2006 27-17
2008 21-11

Diffs of 8, 3, 9, 11, 10 and 10- you would think Ireland in the match with 10 to go on every occasion going purely by the scores.

Can't tell me they havn't deserved at least one win of the 20+ matches between the two.

Getting over the line is obviously easier said than done but either a surprise early or a progression through the series will see them with a win, who knows what else. Regardless, they must persevere through the entire series until the final whistle, otherwise they'll find themselves on the wrong end of a you know what.

leinsterbaby wrote:

Feckless Rogue wrote:Fair point. We do put them on a pedestal in a way that the Aussie's don't. But there is a reason why Ireland have never beaten New Zealand. And it's not all because we don't "believe" we can. It's because every time Ireland have ever played New Zealand, they've put out 15 player who are better at rugby than our 15. The gap in quality between Ireland and New Zealand is real, not imagined.

That said, I think Australia are a better team than us too, but we brought the game plan and the execution to beat them and make them look worse than they are. We've beaten South Africa 3 times in the last 5 years I think. So we should be able to beat New Zealand.

Yes but the gap is not as big as some fans believe.

Plus we have a few advantages for that tour:

NZ will have a new manager, they will have played limited times under the new manager. This is often a good time to play a team.

They may have lost some key players to retirement. I don't think Ireland will have.

It will be played at the beginning of June. Ireland will have played together in the 6N just a few months before. The NZ squad will not have Been together since November the previous year. This is why we usually preform better v NZ in NZ.

NZ are world champions and that is often the best time to play a team. Ireland certainly like playing teams when they are at their best, beating last two world champs and this years tri and 6 nations champions suggests so anyway.

I agree you have the majority of advantages. You probably have the biggest disadvantage also, you are playing the All Blacks in New Zealand.

Ireland are lacking in a bit of muscle/firepower behind the scrum so you should have a few new faces by then aswell. How many of the AB world cup winning squad actually retired or left NZ?

Three,Afoa,Thorn and Muliaina

aucklandlaurie wrote: Three,Afoa,Thorn and Muliaina

Afoa's one of us now...he's giving the inside track on how to beat you guys......

Maybe he's a double agent?

Plus no Donald or McCalister able to be called up in an emergency. I'd say NZ are still pretty healthy, but perhaps still weak in the reserves to their two talisman.

It wouldn't be an emergency if we called up McCallister it would be a f..k..g disaster.

We said that about Donald too Laurie...

But I agree. Never liked McAlister- too much of a prima donna in the SBW mould but without the same (albeit limited) talent. Picked his races and never delivered.

Donald funnily enough seems a really good bloke and for someone who must have read ALL SORTS OF THINGS did extremely well to weather the storm and come back.

My pick for next year is still 3-0 because...it should be. Every player in an AB team simply does not want to be the first in over 100 years to lose to a team they never have. I think that is what has got them over the line in the endwhen scores are tight.

Imagine them coming off to a loss to either Ireland or Scotland. They just don't entertain the thought. Its arrogant but its also very real- a rare sporting achievement in any sport to never have lost to a major playing nation. I think we kiwis take it a bit for granted sometimes. We're just lucky the players on the day don't because the opposition CERTAINLY don't.

Ireland won't get within 15 points of New Zealand, France will be the team to watch .

View you are obsessed with Irish rugby sir! .....fair play you could be right but hey we can dream sure?