The restart

From the WSJ:

[quoteRugby Moves to Aerial Combat - Game-Changing Plays Now Come From Those Old Kick-and-Hope Restarts

By JONATHAN CLEGG

[i]Sunday's Six Nations Championship game between France and Ireland in Paris is shaping up as one of the most tantalizing of the tournament so far.

The two teams appear evenly matched, setting the stage for an 80-minute arm-wrestle with huge championship implications as Ireland's dominant lineout comes up against the powerful French scrum.

It's the sort of marquee matchup that will have rugby fans glued to their TVs. But some of the most defining and critical plays will come at points of the game when most supporters are barely paying attention: The kickoff.

You won't read about many of these plays in your morning paper. But according to an exhaustive study of professional games by data analysts at London Irish, the English Premiership rugby club, what happens when a team kicks off is one of the leading predictors of who will win.

The club's data show that rugby teams are most likely to surrender points immediately after receiving a kickoff to start or restart the game. The key period, according to the research, is the three-minute spell after a kickoff. That's how long a team must hold out without allowing an opposition score. According to the analysis, teams that control the majority of kickoffs, or "restarts" as they're known in rugby parlance, are more likely to win the game.

"It's become a vitally important part of the game," said Declan Danaher, the London Irish forward and former England Saxons player. "Most international teams will have one analyst whose job is solely to work on restarts. There's so much analysis of that part of the game now."

For rugby fans of a certain vintage, this may be a difficult idea to swallow. The kickoff, which is also known as the restart in rugby parlance, was long regarded as simply a way to begin or resume the game: The kicker booted the ball downfield and theneveryone else got on with the serious business of flattening people.

But after years of being all but ignored by fans, players and coaches, this year's Six Nations has seen kickoffs and restarts evolve into a contest for possession every bit as significant as the scrum, lineout and breakdown.

"Restarts are crucial in any game—you have to secure them," said Andy Kellock, the Scotland second-row forward. "It's a game of inches and missing a restart means you give up territory and puts you under pressure."

Since the International Rugby Board changed some of the laws to encourage attacking play, there's been a cultural shift in the game. Rules changes that made it more difficult for defenders to force turnovers after a tackle have forced teams to look for new ways to regain possession.

The result: In a sport where possession is key, kickoffs have become the game's newest battleground. Restarts are viewed as prized opportunities to execute pre-rehearsed kickoff routines, turning the simple act of restarting the game into an unexpected platform from which to launch an attack.

Through the opening eight games of this year's Six Nations, this trend has been abundantly clear. Ten of the 28 total tries scored in the tournament have been scored within three minutes of a restart, while teams have also kicked six penalties within three minutes of taking a kickoff.

France has proved particularly adept at winning possession from the restart. In their opening 30-12 win over Italy, the French scored two tries directly from their own kickoffs. In Scotland last weekend, the French trailed 10-0 after Greig Laidlaw's penalty midway through the first half. Within two minutes, the lead had been cut to just three points as France forced a penalty at the ensuing restart, from which Wesley Fofana rumbled over.

With France leading 13-10 shortly after halftime, Scotland regained the lead when Lee Jones touched down and Duncan Weir added the conversion. The lead lasted less than three minutes, however, as Chris Cusiter made a mess of the kickoff and France capitalized through Maxime Medard's try.

"There's no such thing as a routine restart these days," said Ben Kay, the former England international and now a rugby analyst. "Elite teams are so effective at winning back possession and they will punish mistakes."

Today's attacking restarts are possible in part because of the growing number of athletic, big-bodied players who can compete for the ball in the air and push it back for onrushing teammates. The development of lighter, aerodynamic balls also allows kickers to kick off with pinpoint accuracy.

But the biggest reason is a fundamental change in how teams perform the kickoff. Instead of kicking deep into opposition territory, as was customary in the past, today's leading teams use a lower, flatter trajectory on kickoffs to increase the likelihood of the chasers regaining possession.

Like almost every innovation in rugby, the All Blacks were the first to adopt this aggressive kickoff strategy. In last year's Rugby World Cup in New Zealand, the All Blacks won almost 43% of their restarts, according to statistics from the IRB, compared with a tournament average of just 22%.

Rather than focusing on territory and how to defend from a restart, the idea is to turn the kickoff into a one-on-one aerial contest and attack once possession is secured. These probing restarts are designed to land just over the 10-meter line in time for the chasers to compete for the catch.

Besides giving a team possession and good field position, forcing a turnover from the kickoff also saps momentum and morale from your opponents. "There is nothing worse than when you put so much effort into scoring and then give those points straight back at the restart," said Kay.

For all the emphasis teams now place on the kickoff, one single factor can swiftly render the ploy ineffective: The kicker. If the restart kick is inaccurate, the receiving team has a prime opportunity to counter-attack.

"That's the most frustrating thing for a player," said Danaher. "You get the chase right, you're right where you should be, but the kick goes wrong. Before you know it, you're back on your halfway line and under pressure."[/quote]

Is it just me Asbo, or is that like saying "in over 50% of instances of 5 points being scored, 2 points are scored almost immediately afterwards"?

Teams getting points stuck on 'em tend to kick the ball back to the team putting the points on 'em... that is the point of a restart isn't it?

I'm no statistical genius like, but seriously?