Aviva Premiership Round 18 Preview

So with the 6N's out the way England fans can get back to the their staple diet of Aviva rugby this weekend. In case anyone's forgotten there are now only 5 rounds left to go before the play offs and still a whole host of teams could mathematically sneak in to the precious top 4.

Here's how the table looks going in to round 18:

Harlequins 17 13 1 3 58
Saracens 17 12 1 4 54
Leicester Tigers 17 10 1 6 50
Northampton Saints 17 10 0 7 47
Exeter Chiefs 17 9 0 8 45
Gloucester Rugby 17 8 1 8 41
Sale Sharks 17 8 0 9 40
Bath Rugby 17 8 0 9 39
London Irish 17 6 1 10 36
Worcester Warriors 17 6 1 10 31
London Wasps 17 5 0 12 27
Newcastle Falcons 17 3 2 12 19

Friday 23rd March
Sale Sharks v Saracens, Edgeley Park, Stockport
Sale have slowly lost form over the last few premiership rounds and what was looking like a golden chance for knock out rugby now appears to have changed to a battle for top 6 and Heineken cup competition next season. Off the back of that they will be looking to lay down a marker this Friday night as they host current prem champions Saracens at Edgeley. Saracens have enjoyed mixed results while the internationals were away, suffering three defeats but looking like they may have got things back on track with a typically gritty win over other title hopefulls Northampton in round 17. This Friday Sale will need to use all of their young backlines speed and fearless counter attacking skills as Saracens will not be giving them an inch in the tight, where they should comfortably enjoy the upperhand. I have a feeling Saracens will make this needlessly difficult for themselves though by kicking too much ball away and giving Sale a lot of attacking chances. Saracens by 10.

Worcester Warriors v Newcastle Falcons, Sixways, Worcester
The other game of Friday night sees Falcons travel down to Sixways in a match that they have to win to keep in sight of Wasps. Unfortunately for them Worcester welcome Falcons after a run of games that's seen them beat the likes of Glos and Saracens at home. Expect an old fashioned bun fight in this one as Worcester will look to keep the home fans happy with a win using all of their packs power and grit, Falcons will be looking for a win any which way and will be happy to keep it to a kicking duel banking on flyhalf Gopperth to get the job done for them. Looking at Worcester games at home against teams that have tried to bludgeon them you have to bank on their pack seeing them right, Newcastle just don't have the men to create point scoring chances at the moment and Wuss no one more win should see them clear or the trap door. Worcester by 4.

Saturday 24th March
Harlequins v Bath Rugby, The Stoop, London
With the battle for top spot getting tighter and tighter Harlequins will be demanding a win over Bath who travel up to them on Saturday. Quins have lost their way since the new year, you have to wonder just how much that winning streak has left in the engines and with international call ups they've looked vulnerable for the first time this season. Bath have had some bypolar form over the last few weeks, with big wins in the Prem followed by a humbling from the Tigers youth side. If Harlequins can keep the steely grit we've seen in their pack show since Dec and mix that with the try scoring game they stunned teams with last year then they should be odds on for a win at home, but if bath can get the ball through the hands, and manage to finish, then expect a high try scoring affair. Quins by 7

Gloucester Rugby v Exeter Chiefs, Kingsholm, Gloucester
Gloucester still have hopes of making the top four, and a bp win over Exeter could see them leapfrog the Cheifs in to fifth place and relative safety from the chasing pack. Exeter will know that a win away at Kingsholm will see them almost safely home in the top six and they could even manage to sneak in to the top four. Kingsholm is a tough place to travel to though and with the winter receding the elements may well favour Gloucesters bp ambitions. The Cherry and Whites youngsters will want to make amends for their wet weather schooling against the Tigers and will be looking for a clinical lesson of their own in try scoring. Exeter on the other hand know that they can bully the home team up front and through that could grind out a win. Gloucester by 18 our first bp of the weekend.

Northampton Saints v London Wasps, Franklin's Gardens, Northampton
In our second bp match of the weekend an injury plagued Wasps team have to travel to Northampton. The Saints will be looking to get people back to talking about their rugby rather then their discipline and I think we can expect a very clean demonstration of power in the forwards. If Wasps can't manage to get any parity up front against Northampton then a demolition could be on the cards. For what it's worth Wasps have won a few games against the odds so far and a combination of dogged defence and fluent counter attacking could see them clear. Saints by 10 and a bp.

Sunday 25th March
London Irish v Leicester Tigers, Madejski Stadium, Reading
London Irish are another team that's lost it's mojo somewhere along the way. With a fair few players set to depart and a struggling game plan on the field Leicester will be fancying their chances. The Tigers will be further boyed by their youth team picking up the first silverware of the season last weekend and will be aiming to keep the wins coming. Having seen the Leicester forward displays over the last two weeks it will be impressive if the Exiles can compete and contain them, if they can then the strike runners in the backs should be able to make a lot of yardage in the flimsy Leicester defensive line. If Leicester get on top then this coud turn out to be the third bp match of the weekend, potentally seeing bp's going to both teams as well. Leicester by 6 try bp's all round.

Agree with the picks you made for the winners. Still unsure about the margins though.

I think Quins,Worcester,Northampton and Tigers will win by bigger margins.

Saracens win by 10? I would love that to happen but realistically they love to leave the nerves jangling. If Sarries win it will be tight as usual. Still very poor at finishing off resistance of opposition when in front. I am very wary of Sale.

Yea I was sort of thinking the same about saracens, but then the way you kept ticking over against Saints made me think that maybe those losses had taught the players they need to get a bit more of a margin on the board.

I'm also expecting the internationals back to help Saracens out and if/when your pack gets on top Sales pack has been known to capitulate under pressure.

Do you think Saracens will be requested or will choose to play Farrell at 10 more often now? Maybe alternating with Hodgson.

I thought Farrell generally went to 10 for the last 20 minutes in most Sarries games anyway?

Tigers defence isn't so flimsy recently as it has been previously, there are certainly signs of improvements (about time too).

I'm hoping for a team of:

1.Ayerza
2.Chuter
3.Cole
4.Skivington
5.Parling
6.Croft
7.Salvi
8.Waldrom
9.B Youngs
10.Flood
11.A Tuilagi
12.Twelvetrees
13.Manu
14.Agulla
15.Murphy

Subs: Mulipola, T Youngs, Castro, Mafi, Newby, Harrison, Ford, Smith.

Yappysnap I hope you are right but seeing is believing. Still need to develop that ruthless streak that Leicester in particular have. We win many games but with the bonus point system in place we need to up the ante.

Too many times I have seen Saracens not pulling away from the opposition when ahead. Mostly not costly but certainly was against the tenacious Leicester.

To be honest in regards to Farrell I think he'll be shuffled around the Saracens backline - I expect him to feature at 10,12 and 13 in subsequent matches.

Barritt will need a break at some point so can see Farrell stepping in at 12 too.

Hodgson and Barritt are the two biggest pluses back in the team. Hodgson controlled the tempo well in my opinion vs Saints and Barritt is the lynch pin of the Saracens backline.

It's no surprise Barritt has been thrown straight back in.

formerly known as Sam wrote:I thought Farrell generally went to 10 for the last 20 minutes in most Sarries games anyway?

Tigers defence isn't so flimsy recently as it has been previously, there are certainly signs of improvements (about time too).

I'm hoping for a team of:

1.Ayerza
2.Chuter
3.Cole
4.Skivington
5.Parling
6.Croft
7.Salvi
8.Waldrom
9.B Youngs
10.Flood
11.A Tuilagi
12.Twelvetrees
13.Manu
14.Agulla
15.Murphy

Subs: Mulipola, T Youngs, Castro, Mafi, Newby, Harrison, Ford, Smith.

Mulipola is really turning out as a good signing for you in my opinion. Looks like a dangerous Tigers side. Is A.Allen injured?

Tigers now have four props Castro, Cole, Ayerza and Mulipola all who would walk in to any other sides 23.

Sam I agree that your defence isn't as bad as it was but one of the biggest weaknesses in your backs defence is your lack of pace (especially out wide) and until next season I can't see that getting fixed.

Next season looks scary though, lets hope the new players don't gel.

Beshocked, Botha seemed to step up a gear over the 6N's, he was fairly quiet in the Sarries games that I watched so he could be coming in to form at just the right time for you guys.

Infact all the top teams seem to be hitting their straps except Quins who are having the customary messy patch.

Yappysnap, in my opinion Botha had an average 6 nations but with Kruis putting in some strong performances there's no guarantee Botha is getting his spot back.

Don't be disheartened by Quins, a strong win against Bath and a possible loss for Sarries would mean a very confident Quins side ahead of the clash at Wembley.

Quins still are top of the AP.

True, I just feel we've lost our way somewhere though. It looks like we're now struggling to get tries against tough temas and unless we refind that killer instinct I can see Wembley and then the play offs being depressing for a Quins fan.

We seem to be falling by the way side in the arms race that is the summer signings too. I still hope for some strength in the pack but its less and less likely.

yappysnap wrote:True, I just feel we've lost our way somewhere though. It looks like we're now struggling to get tries against tough temas and unless we refind that killer instinct I can see Wembley and then the play offs being depressing for a Quins fan.

We seem to be falling by the way side in the arms race that is the summer signings too. I still hope for some strength in the pack but its less and less likely.

Quite surprised you haven't made any more signings actually. You didn't make many last season either.How's it going in regards to contract retention?

I still believe that Strettle might re-sign for you. He hasn't signed a contract extension with us.

Where do you believe you need strengthening? Who are your realistic targets?

I think we have just about everyone resigned for a few more seasons so bar one or two can't see us losing anyone. Only players that might go are one of Urdipella or Smith as they're far down the pecking order.

Don't think we'd take Strettle back, he'd want oo much and we have too many wings anyway at the moment, i'd be annoyed if we did as we need more bodies in the front 5.

I'd like to see us sign a big nasty lock ( most of ours are very light weight) so someone in the mould of Attwood would be great. A very good technical scrummaging prop would be useful as Johnston is still hit and miss and after him it's all down hill likewise if Marler isn't playing we lose so much on his side.

We probably need another hooker now that brooker is out for the long haul and Gray is still learning the ropes.

Tigers now have four props Castro, Cole, Ayerza and Mulipola all who would walk in to any other sides 23.

I know, it's great isn't it. Funnily enough Mulipola's favourite position is 8 but he was forced into the front row whilst playing in Samoa because of a lack of front row options! He can play either side which should be a massive bonus as we've lacked a loosehead that could pressure Marcos for his spot as Ayerza offers so much at the scrum and in the loose. Mulipola, Youngs and Castro coming on after 50 mins is what I call an impact substitution!

Sam I agree that your defence isn't as bad as it was but one of the biggest weaknesses in your backs defence is your lack of pace (especially out wide) and until next season I can't see that getting fixed.

Agulla is quicker than he looks but yeah that is still an issue. I wonder if we might see a game or two more from Lewington as he looked excellent against Bath but was forced off near the end.

Is A.Allen injured?

He has been, not sure if he'll be fit for this week, would maintain Twelvetrees at 12 anyway as he's been playing well.

in my opinion Botha had an average 6 nations but with Kruis putting in some strong performances there's no guarantee Botha is getting his spot back

I thought Kruis was more a lineout technician and would be gunning for Borthwick's spot more than Botha's. If Kruis came in for Botha would that leave Sarries a little bit light on grunt in the engine room?

Sam maybe it would leave Saracens a little light on grunt but Kruis is more athletic. I see him as a slightly smaller version of Gray. Still dangerous. At 6,6 he's not a small lad.

Difficult to take Borthwick's spot as he's the captain.

You're right though - one of Botha's strengths is that he gives grunt in the scrum.

I wonder iif we could shove Easter to prop for the same effect? O'Shea did mention that he saw his role changing over the next three seasons...

Jeebus, hope to heck you're completely wrong about the vs Glaws game - Looking for Exe to continue where they left off against Sale ideally, a combination of forward dominance and enterprising back play. We should have Naqelevuki and Arscott back for this one too

I too would be suprised if Glaws can pull a win of that margin off.

I shall await team announcements before making any predictions, but I will say that whilst I am rarely confident going up against Tigers, we have won our last 3 Paddys Day Party games, scored over 30 points in each of them and there is a bit more of a feel good factor around at London Irish than there was 3 weeks ago, largely to do with the return of Brian Smith.

Ill think we'll smash worcester all over...

Ozzy I agree there seems to be a better vibe about LI recently, I think it helps that the suns shining and potentially it should be a good environment for your brand of rugby.

My doubts are over your pack compared to Tigers, I just can't see how you're going to get enought ball to stop Leicester from scoring so went down the rout of it being a Holly Wilaboobie for tat points game and in the end leicester just squeeking through on top.

ASBO, if Exeter were at home i'd be right behind you but with it being so tight between the two teams on the board Glos can't afford a loss and once they get their tails up it could get bad. Of course if they never get a chance to get on a roll then it's all to play for...

London Irish team to face Leicester Tigers:

15. Tom Homer; 14. Marland Yarde; 13. Jonathan Joseph; 12. Steven Shingler; 11. Sailosi Tagicakibau*; 10. Dan Bowden; 9. Darren Allinson; 1.Alex Corbisiero*; 2. David Paice*; 3. Faan Rautenbach*; 4. Nick Kennedy* (Captain); 5. Bryn Evans*; 6. Matt Garvey; 7. Declan Danaher; 8. Jamie Gibson

Replacements: 16. James Buckland; 17. Max Lahiff; 18. Paulica Ion*; 19. Bob Casey*; 20. Alex Gray; 21. Ofisa Treviranus*; 22. Delon Armitage*; 23. Paul Hodgson*

Leicester Tigers (v London Irish, Madejski Stadium, Sunday 3pm)
15 Geordan Murphy (c)
14 Horacio Agulla
13 Manu Tuilagi
12 Billy Twelvetrees
11 Alesana Tuilagi
10 Toby Flood
9 Ben Youngs
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 George Chuter
3 Dan Cole
4 George Skivington
5 Geoff Parling
6 Steve Mafi
7 Julian Salvi
8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 Tom Youngs
17 Martin Castrogiovanni
18 Logovi'i Mulipola
19 Tom Croft
20 Craig Newby
21 James Grindal
22 Anthony Allen
23 Scott Hamilton

Mafi starts ahead of Croft and sadly no place for Ford.

Strong bench for Tigers

Some slightly surprising selections there for us, but I am happy enough with that. Tigers clearly have more power, but we have a lot of mobility in that side and are clearly looking to play. 6 forwards on the bench also says we know that we are going to have to dig in up front and are prepared for it.

Fascinated to see Corbisiero up against Cole in the scrum. Sadly I think we could be let down on the other side, as big Faan, great servant that he has been, is clearly past his best now.

Cannot wait for this. Paddys Day Party games rule and if the sun is shining it should be a cracker.

Yappy

I agree that on paper Tigers have the stronger pack. I can see us looking to play in a similar vein to how the Reds did in the last Super XV season where their strength was their backs. I can see both Yarde and Losi coming off their wings looking for work and causing a few problems for Tigers defensively.

EXETER CHIEFS TEAM TO FACE GLOUCESTER

15 Phil Dollman
14 Gonzalo Camacho
13 Bryan Rennie
12 Jason Shoemark
11 Matt Jess
10 Ignacio Mieres
9 Haydn Thomas
1 Hoani Tui
2 Chris Whitehead
3 Craig Mitchell
4 Tom Hayes (capt)
5 James Hanks
6 Tom Johnson
7 James Scaysbrook
8 Richard Baxter

16 Neil Clark
17 Ben Moon
18 Chris Budgen
19 Aly Muldowney
20 Ben White
21 Kevin Barrett
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Sireli Naqelevuki

In the WR game we had your scrum on a plate until Faan replaced Ion. That one replacement changed the whole compexion of the match. thankfully (fo us) he always looks as if he can only manage 30 minutes or so.

Defensively we have really tightened up since the start of teh season. the thing to note though is that we were fragile early on through the middle - that is no longer the case as Sarries, Bath and Saints have found out in recent weeks. So solve this we do get quite narrow in defence - so not sure the wingers coming infield will reap as many benefits as maintain ing width and trying to outflank us.

15. Mike Brown
14. Tom Williams
13. George Lowe
12. Jordan Turner-Hall
11. Ugo Monye
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Joe Marler
2. Joe Gray
3. James Johnston
4. Olly Kohn
5. George Robson (C)
6. Tom Guest
7. Luke Wallace
8. Nick Easter

16. Rob Buchanan 17. Mark Lambert 18. Will Collier 19. Tomas Vallejos 20. Maurie Fa'asavalu 21. Karl Dickson 22. Rory Clegg 23. Ross Chisholm

LondonTiger wrote:In the WR game we had your scrum on a plate until Faan replaced Ion. That one replacement changed the whole compexion of the match. thankfully (fo us) he always looks as if he can only manage 30 minutes or so.

Defensively we have really tightened up since the start of teh season. the thing to note though is that we were fragile early on through the middle - that is no longer the case as Sarries, Bath and Saints have found out in recent weeks. So solve this we do get quite narrow in defence - so not sure the wingers coming infield will reap as many benefits as maintain ing width and trying to outflank us.

Losi comes inside a fair bit generally, but the up side of that is that it normally takes more than 1 player to put him down. If his direct opponent on the wing tracks in and gets involved in the tackling him this can create space outside and JJ is adept at picking the right line to hit the gap.

The bookies will rightly have the Tiggers as favourites to win, but I am really looking forward to this game. I am taking my team from work to the game as a bit of a team building outing, so hopefully will be a really entertaining game.

JJ will have to pick those lines carefully as Twelvetrees is nearly 16 stone and Manu considerably more than that (his older brother on the wing bigger still). If I was LI I'd by looking for a clever kicking game, the wingers are lacking in pace for Tigers and that could leave Murphy exposed if LI kick clever. Chips over the top, grubbers in behind and the occasional cross field attempt would be weapons of choice if I was selecting the strategy. I'd also be telling the backrow to fan into midfield as I don't fancy that LI midfield bringing down their opposite numbers on the gainline.

I think Tigers have made an error in omitting Ford, he could have been an excellent choice to come on and close out the game (something Staunton failed to do spectacularly last time). His kicking, passing and step would have offered some control in the last 20 mins which a tired Toby might not be able to offer. I'd also have had Smith on the bench over Hamilton, Smith is a much better tackler and is quicker even if he can't read the game or kick as well as Hamilton.

JJ is a very good tackler and punches well above his weight in defence. Shingler also tackles well but can be undone on his outside shoulder by players with decent gas.

I am not overly worried about them defensively and would prefer to see us keep the ball in hand and shift it quickly to vary the point of attack and move your big guys around.

We have big guys with considerable pace though, Manu, Twelvetrees and Mafi are all good shifters off the line. Ok, maybe not the fastest going but to go round them will be an effort. JJ and Shingler will need to punch above their weight, particularly JJ as Manu is a big boy.

I expect it to be a close game with plenty of enterprising play, I think Tigers may have the edge because of their bench. The forwards replacements are all good enough to be Tigers starters on any other week and that strength in depth is going to tell, well I hope anyway.

Gutted but proud of my team today.

Fair play to the Tiggers though, very powerful forward unit, best team won in the end.

You deserve to feel gutted. Not sure we were better and certainly LI deserved something from the game.

LondonTiger wrote:You deserve to feel gutted. Not sure we were better and certainly LI deserved something from the game.

They didn't deserve anything. LI played at 100mph in the first 30 minutues, Tigers just soaked it up. Ultimately, Tigers played harder, smarter for longer. The referee clearly hadn't got a clue what was happening at scrum time, LI definately got the rub of the green there, at least initially, until the Tigers pack took LI to school, then the ref had no choice but to officiate correctly.

Good atmosphere in the village pre-match, we really enjoyed it (for the second year running).

Sorry LI, but you just weren't good enough and havent been since December.

'Come on you Tigers'

Fair play LondonTiger.

Against the Tigers you have to be fully switched on for 80 plus and far beyond. Unfortunately London Irish couldn't manage that. Most teams struggle to keep the tenacious Tigers at bay, certainly if they are still in touching distance.

Interesting that Tigers rested none of their internationals.

Why would they rest fit and available first team players?

Reduce the chance of player burnout.

Equo

Thanks for your input but I have to say that you do talk out of your hole sometimes and appear as a thoroughly unpleasant individual.

It was a cracking game, and I suspect that you might be in minority of 1 if you truly believe that we deserved nothing from the game. Interestingly, sat in a mixed group of neutrals, Tigers and Irish fans, the Irish fans felt the ref favoured Tigers, the Tigers that he favoured Irish, and the neutrals that he was just generally pretty crap, but was crap for both teams.

The neutrals that I spoke to also said that Youngs should definitely have had yellow, and possibly red, so it anyone got a bit of the rub, perhaps it was the Tigers.

That said, the better team on the day won, and I wish the Tigers the best of luck for the run in (I personally think you will win it). I not disheartened after our performance though, as with a bit of tweaking and the long prayed for purchase of decent tighthead, we will be competitive under Brian Smith next season, and without the distraction of Heineken Cup rugby, could get back to challenging for the play offs again.

beshocked wrote:Reduce the chance of player burnout.

It's not like they have Europe to worry about, beshocked!

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

beshocked wrote:Reduce the chance of player burnout.

It's not like they have Europe to worry about, beshocked!

Indeed.

You have a first choice team available. You pick it. Simples. I didn't see many other internationals rested from any AP team either - not can most teams afford to.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Equo

Thanks for your input but I have to say that you do talk out of your hole sometimes and appear as a thoroughly unpleasant indivdual.
It was a cracking game, and I suspect that you might be in minority of 1 if you truly believe that we deserved nothing from the game. Interestingly, sat in a mixed group of neutrals, Tigers and Irish fans, the Irish fans felt the ref favoured Tigers, the Tigers that he favoured Irish, and the neutrals that he was just generally pretty crap, but was crap for both teams.

The neutrals that I spoke to also said that Youngs should definitely have had yellow, and possibly red, so it anyone got a bit of the rub, perhaps it was the Tigers.

That said, the better team on the day won, and I wish the Tigers the best of luck for the run in (I personally think you will win it). I not disheartened after our performance though, as with a bit of tweaking and the long prayed for purchase of decent tighthead, we will be competitive under Brian Smith next season, and without the distraction of Heineken Cup rugby, could get back to challenging for the play offs again.

Well, its nice to know our moderators aren't at all bitter and twisted when their team get humped. You know, a Not Nots fan was gloating to me before Christmas, telling me that the table doesn't lie - well, he wasn't wrong after all was he?

Youngs should have been sent off, I absolutely agree. I would be amazed if he wasn't cited actually.

Not bitter and twisted at all mate, had a thoroughly great day yesterday and am happy with my team going forward, just think you talk a whole heap of rubbish most of the time.

And for information, I am a poster first, moderator second. You'll know when I am talking as a moderator as it will be in red.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Not bitter and twisted at all mate, had a thoroughly great day yesterday and am happy with my team going forward, just think you talk a whole heap of rubbish most of the time.

And for information, I am a poster first, moderator second. You'll know when I am talking as a moderator as it will be in red.

You're team aren't going forward, they're going backward - and I value your opinion as a poster on the other matter. Rest assured, its mutual.

Interesting that Tigers rested none of their internationals.

Only Croft and Cole played every game for England over the 6N and there were rest weeks in between. Neither played a full match yesterday. Croft started from the bench but Cole would have been desperate to start knowing Corbisiero was starting for LI. They may be mates when they are with England but bragging rights needed to be sorted out and Cole truely sorted those out. They'll have more time off with the two Euro breaks and the squad will be rotated slightly. The only player not looking that fresh was Manu, which is annoying as he's the one hardest to rotate.

Good point aslongasbut100ofus. Does make it easier as they only have eyes on one thing - the AP.

Fair enough Sam that's a good answer.

Equo Troiano I wouldn't say London Irish got humped... Entitled your opinion though.

Actually no, LI weren't humped.