DERBY

Once again the Blue Riband is upon us and regardless of what racing pundits say it still takes a good horse to win this event,even in a so called average year.This years field is short on numbers and if truth be told,light on real Derby winning credentials but thats not to say that we wont see a special performance or a very good horse.Heres my take on this years protaganists.

CAMELOT brings Classic winning form to the table,despite being stoutly bred,despite running over a trip deemed to short and despite running on ground that was thought too soft he still had the class and basic speed to win the 2000 Guineas.That win showed untapped potential in the Ballydoyle encumbent and with the promise of better to come now he runs over what is thought to be a more suitable trip then its no wonder hes a red hot favourite.He is the most likely winner but 4/7 doesnt interest me,he might smash them all up and prove to something very special,at that price he can do as he chooses,he wont be carrying my cash.I reckon he either wins by a street or bombs out,i dont think theres any in between with him.

BONFIRE showed nice juvenile form,which closely links him with Camelot through French Fifteen.His Dante win had purists purring but i for one wasnt over keen on him,i thought he was at the limit as far as trip was concerned,i think it was more a case of the second weakening(after racing over keen and getting buzzed up at the start) rather than Bonfire going away.He himself showed that he can be "fizzy" in the prelims,not good when Epsom will no doubt be a cauldron of noise and distraction.Is he really second fav for the Derby because of what hes shown or by default because of the paucity of real contenders? Trip and temperament issues make him an easy swerve.

ASTROLOGY had only fair juvenile form and a Chester rout of three plugs in a bog told us little but he remains a colt of infinite promise,he WILL stay,he WILL handle the track and Ballydoyle second strings have a habit of running massive races around here.If the ones in behind play "silly buggers" then i can see Astrology getting away from these on the entrance to the straight and he may take some pegging back.Solid claims.

MAIN SEQUENCE is being asked to go from handicapper to Classic winner in six weeks and whilst he is certainly on the upgrade it takes a leap of faith to see him pulling it off.Winning the "Sand Shuffling" renewal of the Lingfield Derby Trial is a world away from here.Cant have him at any price.

THOUGHT WORTHY is a lovely,scopey son of Dynaformer.He showed plenty of character to fight of all comes to win the Fairways at Newmarket but he won despite being too free,despite not being in love with the ground,despite wanting at least two furlongs further and despite falling all over the place running into the Dip.Stamina is assured and hes a straightforward ride.The stable have formlines on all of these and the fact he runs shows the regard the Gosden camp hold him in.Can see him and Astrology getting first drop on these from a long way out.Hes my ew bet at 16s.

MICKDAAM'S win in the Chester mud was a brave effort but like a handful in here it takes huge faith to see him being a real challenger.He will have his day again but not today.No chance.

RUGGED CROSS has no chance.

CAVALIERO will attract attention for one reason,Hayley Turner takes the ride.On form,she might as well stop at Tattenham Corner and get an ice cream.

MINIMISE RISK has no chance,hope he doesnt get in the way.

In summary,Camelot is the obvious choice but the price is stupid.His form is there for all to see as is his untapped promise,he may prove a class above these,if he does then just enjoy him for what he is.Astrology just cant be out of the frame,he looks rock solid in every department.THOUGHT WORTHY,like the fav is a colt of infinite potential,he will stay and he looks an easy ride,at 16s hes worth a punt and even if he doesnt collect hes one to improve through the season.

It was quite something to behold the way Camelot sped up from being second to last and seven lengths behind. The turn of speed, the explosiveness in the back legs, the whole transformation from high speed to flying, looked quite special.

Nore Staat wrote:It was quite something to behold the way Camelot sped up from being second to last and seven lengths behind. The turn of speed, the explosiveness in the back legs, the whole transformation from high speed to flying, looked quite special.

Totally agree with this. As soon as he turned his afterburners on it was game over and it was awesome viewing. A true wonderhorse and a joy to watch. I think my each way bet is still running!

A very taking performance on the eye,almost identical to that produced by Authorized a few seasons back but if you put the visual aspect of his win to one side and then look a little deeper,is this really a "wonderhorse"? Heres the official ratings of the first six before the race
Camelot 121
Main Sequence 106 beaten 5l
Astrology 113 beaten 5l
Thought Worthy 106 beaten 11l
Mickdaam 108 beaten 13l
Bonfire 119 beaten 13.5l
Even to the racing novice these figures show that this field had absolutely no depth to it whatsoever aside of Camelot himself.All hes done in reality is run to his mark,in reality thats all he had to do,yes there was colts with promise of better to come in the field but you were asking them to find a stone or more to get really competitive and with this Classic coming as early in the season as it does then it wasnt going to happen.
Camelot still remains a colt of untapped promise,he can only improve with time but its only when and if he tackles the older division that a true reading of his ability will be revealed.Irish Derby looks his for the taking,after that then only connections truly know what route he will take but i do think they will want him retired as unbeaten.Main Sequence ran above himself in finishing second, he has improved rapidly over the last six weeks and further success looks there for the taking,if at a slightly lesser grade.Astrology gets a real pat on the back,hes run a lifetime best after forcing the pace from flagfall and when he slipped them in the straight i thought he might hang on.If ridden with a little less panache then i think he would have been clear second best and the winning margin would have been reduced somewhat as i reckon it was Astrology weakening rather than Camelot going away in the last 150 yds.He will be an admirable stable substitute to fill the void in Camelot free races.Thought Worthy,like Astrology probably ran better than his finishing place suggests,he kept tabs on the front runner from early on but his tendency to race keenly and his ability to handle all the twists and turns with ease just caught him out.He stayed on in the straight without threatening,he doesnt have a real gear change and a stiffer test on a more conventional track looks a better bet.Mickdaam ran a stormer,he looked like being out with the rags at Tattenham Corner,he didnt seem to handle the Hill at all but once levelled out he stayed on strongly.He will appreciate a flatter track and lesser grade.
Bonfire was very flat for whatever reason.He took the prelims okay and looked to travel nicely but at the business end he found little,trip?,ground?,track?,i really dont know although i did say that i thought the Dante form to be very suspect.Until he shows a bit more sparkle then he will be an easy passover in further engagements.

Camelot was head and shoulders above these coming into the race and leaves in exactly the same position.He isnt a wonderhorse,not by a long way,he hasnt produced a piece of form that would come close to being labelled as such.He is however a very good colt who will get better with time.The rest of the season awaits,big prizes a plenty,lets hope that we see Camelot lock horns with the older brigade at least once then we really would know.

I am wondering whether or not Camelot has the "best" jockey. After the Derby I went on to youtube to look at his 2000 Guineas win, and he was in an awful position towards the back again, but somehow managed to carve his way through the melee of horses in front of him to beat French 15 by a neck. French 15 also came from the back but had a straight path to the front.

The best horse I have seen is Sea the Stars, he always seemed to do enough, and then relaxed. I never felt he was really pushed in his Derby / Prix de l'Arc winning season.

The horse got the jockey out of a real sticky spot in the 2000,he was in the wrong place at every given moment apart from on the "jamstick" and it certainly wasnt by good judgement that he arrived so late.As for his Derby ride,well lets say that the small field was a bonus and the fact that only four of the nine held any real pretentions was a definite "bonus ball",yet i still think that he was too far back for comfort.Camelots change of gear from the three to the two got O Brien out of jail again,Astrology was away and gone.In bigger field races you can guarantee that O Brien will get absolutely no favours whatsoever,he has to wise up and get away from what some see as being a one dimensional rider in that he can only ride a hold up race.
Phil Smith has released his Derby ratings and he has Camelot on 124,why hes gone up 3lb for Satudays effort is beyond me,cant see that one for love nor money,to my eye hes just run to mark...121.He goes on to say that he finds Camelot and Sea the Stars as almost identical in the ratings they have achieved at this stage of their careers but Camelot MUST run against older horses to reveal his true metal....think hes been reading my previous post