Derby and Oaks

With two Classics been and gone all the attention turns towards Epsom and the Blue Riband for 3yo colts and fillies.At this point in most seasons past the picture for said Classics was fairly clear but this season offers a very murky one.The 2000 produced a winner that will go down racing folklore but hes a pure miler,the beaten horses didnt look like Derby contenders to me,the Lingfield Trial looked only a moderate affair and todays trial in Ireland didnt exactly set the world alight.That all being the case then are we to presume that whoever comes out on top in the Dante will bar a miracle be a hot favourite for Epsom glory? i think so.World Domination,Carlton House,Seville,Roderic O Connor all throw their hats in the ring but who will it be?The first two are only very lightly raced with victories in a maiden apiece,the second pair are more normal types in that theyve shown top flight form as 2yos with better to come as 3yos.Of the four i like Carlton House,his Newbury win was very impressive and although the form as it stands isnt earth shattering he looked and is bred to be the type to improve into his third year.If he handles the quicker ground that will be on offer at York then i expect him to go very close.It could very well be that even if he gets turned over in the Dante he will still go to Epsom with some sort of chance because to my eye at least credible challengers are thin on the ground.
The Oaks looks slightly clearer at this moment,to me it concerns two fillies in the shape of Blue Bunting and Wonder of Wonders.The former won the 1000 and in doing so she outran her pedigree as she MUST improve for the step up in trip.Very similar to Kazzia in her style im sure she'll take the beating but one who might trouble her is Wonder of Wonders.She won her maiden nicely then came over for the Cheshire Oaks where she showed that a tight,twisting track holds no fears and she stormed clear in the last 100 yds giving the impression that the further she goes the better she will go,with the Musidora the only credible trial left i think that at the current price of around 8 or 9/1 she warrants a deal of respect.

If i was striking a bet now then it would be Carlton House for the Derby and Wonder of Wonders for the Oaks.

very interesting racingnut.

I agree with you about Wonder of Wonders and snapped up the 16/1 on offer last week before it ran in the Cheshire Oaks (a rare ante post bet that for me) I do think that Blue Bunting is a worthy favourite though if she can stay the trip. If she can then her speed can see her come through to win at Epsom. I must say I was also impressed by Zain Al Boldan on Saturday. I am just not sure that she actually beat a great deal at Lingfield.

I havent really considered the Derby yet. Nothing has really impressed so far (apart from obviously Frankel who now won't run) and so it all appears to depend on the Dante. Can't split them at the moment, the O'Brien runners seem to be on form, but I imagine Henry Cecil will have World Domination ready and the same can be said for the Stoute horse.

The Dante will prove to be the marker for the Derby so wouldn't like to pick anything until that's been run. The Oaks I think Blue Bunting will stay - to be honest prior to it all I would have said she'd have more of a chance in that than the Guineas! Said on the other site though AOB is always the one to watch on the run up to the Derby with all his horses so I'd be looking for a good run from Seville this week!

I have now had a look at the runners for the Dante and agree that Seville looks to have the best chance. good pedigree for a Derby too

How can bookies possibly make a dodgepot like Recital 6/1 for the Derby! If that isnt a total insult to the intelligence of the average racing fan then i dont know what is.He wanted to do everything but race on Sunday,he looks a rogue,a jade and everything inbetween.Im suprised that there hasnt been quotes of 10/1 for the winner of the 9f maiden at Redcar today

Fallon actually talked up the chances of Recital in the Derby! I cant believe it,unless im seeing something different to everyone else,Recital just looks a total rogue whos mind is on anything but racing.Ive had shares in horses by Toulon and Un Desperado and they can have a temperament that borders on the ungenuiene but they where either geldings or mares,this fellas an entire and his mind is certainly on something else.

Sounds like 'Hot Irons & The Pickling Jar' are needed for Recital, eh Racingnut !!!!
One other thing that doesn't really get me too excited about Recital is that i'm not sure he's bred to get 1m 4f. Ok, no doubting the obvious on the sires side, but on the lines down the dams side (and granted the Dam was unraced) i'd suggest everything points to 10f being about the limit. I'm certainly not convinced anything Recital has done would indicate he's good enough to win the Derby either. Winning the Grand Criterium on bottomless ground at the very back end of last season against nothing of exception was not a shock, as, i'm sure you'll know Montjeu didn't mind cut in the ground, so the fact Recital relished it was to be expected. The win in the Derrinstown on Sunday again, was nothing more than you'd expect and in all honesty, what did he beat ? You wouldn't really have Memphis Tennessee or Regent Street down as being leading lights in the O'Brien stable and the rest, well, hardly quality.
I'd agree .... not one i'd be jumping to back on what we've seen to date. i'm pretty sure there will be more than a couple better than Recital in the field come the big day in June.

If Recital was trained by anyone other than AoB it wouldnt be double digit odds at least.People will fall for it,this time of the year makes my blood boil cos anything that shows the slightest hint of ability in any sort of race gets stupid quotes for the Classics.if you havent had your bet by now then sit tight cos chances are the odds will be bigger come the day

Wasnt impressed with todays Musidora as an Oaks pointer.Lines through Barefoot Lady give the 1000 form a boost and i dont think the OBrien horse will be the yards number one contender.Unless something flies out of nowhere in the next 10 days it looks like Wonder of Wonders for me.

[If i was striking a bet now then it would be Carlton House for the Derby and Wonder of Wonders for the Oaks.]

wish id listened to myself.

probably be a good time to have a bet for the Derby now because I reckon the 2/1 on offer for Carlton House will not be there come the day.

Gonna say that AOB trains the Derby winner!

With his brave display in the Irish 2000 did Roderic O Connor throw his Derby hat into the ring at the eleventh hour? He has stamina on both sides of his pedigree,he has the modern day criteria of group 1 winning form as a two year old and he looks a very uncomplicated ride,to look at him he reminds me of Rip Van Winkle.I also got the impression today that it wouldnt have mattered over what distance the race was,Dubawi Gold was never going to get past,the winner was always pulling out enough.With Carlton House a ridiculous 7/4 shot on the evidence of a non event of a trial then this fella at 25s might just be a decent little play.

racingnut wrote:If Recital was trained by anyone other than AoB it wouldnt be double digit odds at least.People will fall for it,this time of the year makes my blood boil cos anything that shows the slightest hint of ability in any sort of race gets stupid quotes for the Classics.if you havent had your bet by now then sit tight cos chances are the odds will be bigger come the day

I'm not going to back Recital but i must say that Workforce hung his head in the Dante last year and many Montjeu's have seemed to get the act together at some stage.

As regards the race i think that if Native Khan stays he'll have a huge chance. I know its a big question mark but his run in the guineas was extremely promising. He also moves and travels like a horse of real class so he should have no problem with the camber and he might be able to come late and steal the day.

At a big price Treasure Beach can run well also.O Brien has had some really big priced placed horses over the last few years (Dylan Thomas Masterofthehall and At First Sight) and O Brien himself does not seem to have a single outstanding candidate.

Welcome to the forum Captain Charisma : )

Solerina

Casamento looks a huge price at 40/1 considering he is the highest rated horse still in the race.

He may still swerve the race in favour of the French Derby but would be well worth backing if he does turn up at Epsom.

He was disappointing in the 2000 Guineas but was the only horse that tried to go with Frankel and that probably didn't help him at Newmarket. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we see the Casamento from last year come this weekend.

Great to see another new member on the racing pages!

Welcome to v2, sportsville......hope you like it here : )

Solerina

my 2 to take on Carlton House would be Native Khan and Ocean War.

this is shaping up into a very tricky race to predict however.
the news regarding Carlton House yesterday was not good. I see this morning he is currently about 7/4. If there are no further problems that may well be a good bet as he is certain to shorten up to about even money I think on the day.

One of the reasons for this I think is the unknown quality of Pour Moi. He may well take all the beating but I think the 7/2 currently on offer for him is actually probably even worse value. I am seriously impressed by the young jockey who will be on board on Saturday though.

I'm sold on Pour Moi Steveo, although the odds are ridiculous

Just read all the headline stories on the racing pages and the so called alarming drift of Carlton House because of his injury scare.....are these so called bookmakers taking the racing fraternity for mugs or what? Heres a horse who has shown one piece of form that warrants respect and hes 6/4,he has a scare,has three good legs and one iffy one and hes only 7/4! Its 7/4 him even turning up on Saturday never mind winning the thing.I said on another thread that Fame and Glory(for the Gold Cup) was the worst value bet id seen but now im not so sure.This years event has a real feel of Snow Knights year in 74 when no one horse had real outstanding claims and we got a 50/1 skinner.

well certainly the Derby will be diminished if Carlton House does not turn up.

However I have a feeling that he will line up, and that the scare has maybe been overhyped. If he does line up then I think he wins, there are too many negatives about the other contenders. If he steadies at 2/1 today expect to see the price plunge to around evens come Derby day.

racingut - you may well be right though. If Carlton House doesnt win it is entirely possible an outsider such as Casamento could win this.

ok he IS running. Get your bets on now

Well,the Oaks is almost upon us and compared to the murky waters of the Derby its been a pretty clear picture throughout in the run up to the third Classic.Blue Bunting has headed the markets since her 1000 win and with plenty of stamina in her female side of the pedigree and the likelyhood of improvement for the longer trip then you would say that shes a worthy fav.Ive liked Wonder of Wonders for a while,marvelously bred with Galileo and Sea the Stars in the family,shes improved steadily and last time out she bolted up in the Cheshire Oaks,giving the impression that the further she went the better she went.Can see her powering home and for me shes the one too beat.For an outsider i like Izzi Top,shaped with a deal of promise last time at Newbury,has a family full of stamina,Opera House and Kayf Tara on the dams side so that shouldnt be an issue and she showed a nice change of gear to pick up the leaders.Has no miles on the clock and can only improve,at 20s or thereabouts i think shes the ew value.
For me;
1.Wonder of Wonders
2.Blue Bunting
3.Izzi Top

I fancy Aiden to win it with Misty for me

Johnny Murtagh...Ride and a half.

Superb race and i think Wonder of Wonders proved herself to be a really really good prospect.

Yep, Murtagh & Haggas got that tactically spot on. Looking at her 2nd run showed that getting to the front and dictating early suits the horse (ironically when Fallon rode her) and similar tactics today proved the key.
Not Frankies finest moment on the back of a horse dropping his hands to lose third place on Blue Bunting, really annoying when that happens and reminds me of Pat Eddery back in the day when he often failed to ride out for a place when beaten. Back to the winner, not sure where she goes next and i would hesitate to suggest that she won't be allowed to dictate in the future, probably not the highest quality Oaks in recent years but nonetheless a clever performance.

I found it odd that O Brien had a pacemaker in the Derby in the form of Memphis Tennessee (who didn't run like a pacemaker) yet i would feel if they had a stronger pace in the oaks Wonder of Wonders would certainly have beaten Dancing Rain.