Tour De France 2012 Discussion Thread

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Mon Jun 25, 2012 5:59 am

First topic message reminder :

I thought I would start the ball rolling on the TDF 2012. It is less than a week away now.

My predictions:
Yellow Jersey: Bradley Wiggins - Gotta go with the Brit
Green Jersey: Peter Sagan - Imperious form and I think Cav will go for stage wins not the Jersey
Polka dot jersey: Anyone's guess. Probably a Frenchman.
White Jersey: Again up in the air.
Best Team: Team Sky or BMC for me.

by spencerclarke Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:17 am

Hopefully Wiggo will finally get the credit he has deserved for years. as much as I like Hoy I've always been gutted that he has got more of the plaudits. I have been singing Wiggins' praises for years. Down to earth genuine man.

by Guest Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:18 am

100km of TT is quite ridiculous and Wiggins was always going to dominate. I don't agree that this is the biggest sporting achievement of an athlete from GB, not when you understand how this course is so suited to Bradley and the fact this rivals have been absent or the ones that are there were basically non-existent. I'm not having a go at Wiggins because you can only beat who's put in front of you but no way is this the biggest sporting achievement, he's hardly been tested at all. It'a media reaction to the news story at the minute ahead of an already action packed summer of sport and the impending Olympics.

Don't get me wrong its a fantastic achievement and I congratulate him.

by ChequeredJersey Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:18 am

Wiggins is untouchable as a TTer. Froome may be a better climber but Wiggins is so superior as a Timetrial man that anyone saying he isn't the best rider on his team is just daft IMO

by Imperial Ghosty Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:20 am

Wiggins winning the tour and 3 olympic golds, countless world titles smashes Holmes achievement to pieces, he'd be behind only Steve Redgrave as britains greatest ever sportsmen.

by alfie Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:30 am

John wrote:100km of TT is quite ridiculous and Wiggins was always going to dominate. I don't agree that this is the biggest sporting achievement of an athlete from GB, not when you understand how this course is so suited to Bradley and the fact this rivals have been absent or the ones that are there were basically non-existent. I'm not having a go at Wiggins because you can only beat who's put in front of you but no way is this the biggest sporting achievement, he's hardly been tested at all. It'a media reaction to the news story at the minute ahead of an already action packed summer of sport and the impending Olympics.

Don't get me wrong its a fantastic achievement and I congratulate him.

You seem to be contradicting yourself a bit there , John : if you consider he has had no rivals to speak of and a course perfect for him , how is it a fantastic achievement ? I think I understand what you are saying , but really think you are being a little unfair : Wiggins has so dominated the TT it is hard to see how anyone would have been able to "test" him.

Truth is it absolutely is a fantastic achievement , one that no British rider has come close to in a century : and surely that at least puts it on the short list as greatest individual achievement by a British sportsman ?

by spencerclarke Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:36 am

Imperial Ghosty wrote:Wiggins winning the tour and 3 olympic golds, countless world titles smashes Holmes achievement to pieces, he'd be behind only Steve Redgrave as britains greatest ever sportsmen.

well said ghosty! Wiggins has been doing it for years.

by spencerclarke Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:38 am

Well done Bradley Wiggins!!! Top performance.

by ChequeredJersey Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:41 am

He is probably going to have the greatest achievement in endurance cycling, the Yellow in the Tour, in which this year he has been the best TTer and 2nd best climber. He has gold medals in short distance pursuit, several. He may win, in the same year the tour and days afterwards, a TT gold too. He has successfully gone from track to road and led a GB team to an almost certain Tour win despite the laughter of the continental press who said it couldn't be done, only 4 years after the team was formed and he moved from track. What more do you want from the man? BMXing?

by alfie Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:42 am

Certainly won that TT in style !

And that fist punch as he crossed the line may have had a touch of "how do the critics like that !" about it.

Well done Wiggo

by Duty281 Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:42 am

Imperial Ghosty wrote:Wiggins winning the tour and 3 olympic golds, countless world titles smashes Holmes achievement to pieces, he'd be behind only Steve Redgrave as britains greatest ever sportsmen.

Quite right. Arise, Sir Bradley Wiggins clap

by Guest Sat Jul 21, 2012 8:56 am

It's a fantastic achievement to win the tour de france because it's the pinnacle of cycling but I have to question people who are jumping on the bandwagon and saying this is the best sporting achievement ever by a british sportsman. To win the tour by 6minutes 19 seconds over Nibali emphasises my point that this year really was a poor GC and the fact that there was over 100km of TT in the layout really just played into Wiggins hands.

Having no Contador, Schleck, Rodriguez, Sanchez or Hesjadal among the field was really evident this year and it was quite embarrasing watching Evans attempt to challenge this year. Van Den Broeck was non-existent and Rolland & Pinout are the future stars but who arent capable as of yet to win a tour. Having that amoung of quality absent from the field does in my opinion reduce the significance of this win in comparison to other sporting achievements.

It's still magnificent that he's won the tour but I would have preferred to see him beat the best.

by Guest Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:08 am

John wrote:...It's still magnificent that he's won the tour but I would have preferred to see him beat the best.

The "best" are serving drug bans Whistle

Bradley has won this years TdF (subject to acts of god) with plenty plenty to spare. Apparently Wiggins and Team Sky were as convinced last year that they were going to win it as this year but Wiggins suffered the injury. At the beginning of this years race Wiggins was not considered to be a favorite by most.

by Zander Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:08 am

Congratulations Bradley Wiggins. clap

Surely he has to win Sports Personality of the Year now?

by djlovesyou Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:13 am

John wrote:

Having no Contador, Schleck, Rodriguez, Sanchez or Hesjadal among the field was really evident this year and it was quite embarrasing watching Evans attempt to challenge this year. Van Den Broeck was non-existent and Rolland & Pinout are the future stars but who arent capable as of yet to win a tour. Having that amoung of quality absent from the field does in my opinion reduce the significance of this win in comparison to other sporting achievements.

It's still magnificent that he's won the tour but I would have preferred to see him beat the best.

VDB did what he does, he wasn't non-existent, he's just not better than that generally. J-Rod would have lost 10 minutes in the time trials and he's not that great on long, but not so steep climbs anyway. Andy wouldn't have gained enough on those climbs either.

Of course we were missing Contador, but that couldn't be helped. Samuel Sanchez was there, and even when he crashed out, he was never going to be a challenge this time.

by Guest Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:20 am

Schleck, Hesjadal, Sanchez, Rodriguez are not banned. Contador in my opinion was wrongly found guilty for what was actually found in his sample. He still claims his innocence to this day and many cycling experts agree he was harshly treated, and I for one, look forward to seeing him compete at the Vuelta.

I will look forward to seeing Wiggins test himself and defend his title with the determination and hunger he has shown this year. The course in 2013 will celebrate '100 years of the Alps' and there certainly won't be the amounts of TT next year. It will be a climbers tour unlike this year. As for SPOTY, I doubt he will win because Cavendish won last year and it's unlikely Cycling will grab the voters imagination again. If he wins the TT at the Olympics though he will certainly be in the mix but I would expect it to go to an Ennis or Farah.

by ChequeredJersey Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:28 am

Depends if Ennis or Farah win anything though

by Guest Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:31 am

Why has only one cyclist won The Laureus World Sports Award for Sportsman / woman of the Year. This happened to be in 2003 for Lance Armstrong. A tennis player has won it eleven times.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laureus_World_Sports_Awards

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Sat Jul 21, 2012 1:57 pm

Bravo Bradley Wiggins clap

People will say oh the GC was weak, but in my eyes the only person who could have beaten you this year with this route was Contador, and even then we don't know if he was on drugs or not.

It hasn't been a classic, far from it. But as a British Cycling Fan it has been a pleasure to watch, and hopefully Cav can make it 4 in a row on the Champs Elysees tomorrow

by ChequeredJersey Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:06 pm

Some of the comments on the BBC news story page make me really really angry

by Guest Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:26 pm

Look Wiggins has won the tour and from an outsiders view this is a truly magnificent achievement for a british athlete. However, people who have watched the tour and previous tours are always going to discuss and disect the tour in much more detail and therefore the inevitable talk of a weak GC or Froome not being able to challenge Wiggins or the amount of TT in favor of Wiggins and his track pursuit background is going to be discussed. That's sport, full of different views and opinion, you just have to accept it.

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:31 pm

John wrote:Look Wiggins has won the tour and from an outsiders view this is a truly magnificent achievement for a british athlete. However, people who have watched the tour and previous tours are always going to discuss and disect the tour in much more detail and therefore the inevitable talk of a weak GC or Froome not being able to challenge Wiggins or the amount of TT in favor of Wiggins and his track pursuit background is going to be discussed. That's sport, full of different views and opinion, you just have to accept it.

But for me genuinely the only guy who could challenge Wiggins on this route would have been Contador. Nibali was in good shape, hell look at his TT today, he was in good shape. But Wiggins was in the form of his life, and I reckon he would have put up a fight to any bike rider in the world in this Tour. The route was favourable to Wiggins, just like next year it will suit a Schleck (Andy not dopey Frank). He targetted this year, and got it. And the fact that Team Sky have produced a British TDF winner inside of the 5 year target set is incredible. I highly doubted it would happen when they said it 3 years ago, but how happy I am to be proved wrong

by ChequeredJersey Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:37 pm

Having the view that the tour wasn't that strong or Froome
Was as good as Wiggins, as much as I disagree, is fine. They are valid opinions. It's the vitriolic dismissiveness and needless bitterness and unpleasantness from some posters on the BBC website that gets me.

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:44 pm

Also tomorrow I reckon there will be a lot of Brits on the Champs Elysees. Well I hope there is. Will be great to hear the national anthem on the Champs Elysees for Brad

by Guest Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:50 pm

Gotta feeling Vinoukorov going to go for the stage as a last bow out! Cavendish will have other ideas though.

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Sat Jul 21, 2012 2:52 pm

John wrote:Gotta feeling Vinoukorov going to go for the stage as a last bow out! Cavendish will have other ideas though.

I really wanted Vino to win the other day, but his legs just aren't there no more. Can see Sagan putting up a challenge to Cav due to the uphill nature of the Champs Elysees.

Also shout out for Nicolas Roche. Another good performance from the Irishman, who is always there or thereabouts

by LastDamnation Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:47 am

Olly wrote:
But for me genuinely the only guy who could challenge Wiggins on this route would have been Contador. Nibali was in good shape, hell look at his TT today, he was in good shape. But Wiggins was in the form of his life, and I reckon he would have put up a fight to any bike rider in the world in this Tour. The route was favourable to Wiggins, just like next year it will suit a Schleck (Andy not dopey Frank). He targetted this year, and got it. And the fact that Team Sky have produced a British TDF winner inside of the 5 year target set is incredible. I highly doubted it would happen when they said it 3 years ago, but how happy I am to be proved wrong

Hard to say that - if Andy (or sammy sanchez) had been fit we'd have had a completely different dynamic in the mountains and it would have been a completely different race. I don't believe Andy could have won this race with so many ITT kms but his presence would have definitely changed things up a lot.

by alfie Sun Jul 22, 2012 8:27 am

Perfect finish for Sky !

Cavendish another final stage victory clap

...and the little matter of a 1-2 for Wiggins and Froome of course Smile

Congratulations to Wiggins and all his team mates Bubbly

by ChequeredJersey Sun Jul 22, 2012 8:34 am

Maybe. But he wasn't fit

by Imperial Ghosty Sun Jul 22, 2012 10:25 am

Not being funny but Andy couldn't break Evans in the mountains, he gained a couple of minutes and that was it, on the course as it was he wasn't ever going to build up a big enough gap if any gap at all. Having screwed up the Vuelta last time even if Schleck had made a successful break and Wiggins cracked, rest assured Froome would have been given licence to attack.

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:50 am

Wow what a sprint by Cav. Unbelievable day for British Sport. Just an unreal achievement. 1 in 3 stages were won by a British rider. And not just Cavendish, Wiggins, Froome and Millar. Just the perfect Tour for a Brit

by dummy_half Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:04 am

Well, Cav certainly carried his strength well out of the mountain stages - the sprint on Friday was a fantastic effort to close down the break aways, while yesterday he was simply too strong for anyonwe to come round. Actually, yesterday was very like last year's sprint in Paris - team get him through the last corner first and then he kicked early, gapping everyone and being strong enough on the up hill and cobbled surface to maintain speed and not have anyone come round him close to the line.

Great final time trial from Wiggins and Froome, although to be honest there weren't many great ITT riders left in the race to challenge (Millar potentially, but looks like he just cruised round) - that LL Sanchez was third fastest tells you plenty about the strength of the field.

Overall, a great Tour for Sky (although not a great Tour from a 'neutral' perspective), particularly Wiggins and Froome - made winning the race look quite simple, although I'm sure at times it was tougher than it looked. It will be interesting to see what happens next year, with a route expected to be much tougher (100th TdF) - Contador and Andy Schleck back (hopefully), and a course that will favour attacking climbing.

by Big Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:09 am

Millar was apparently ill for the final ITT, so did well to get round in an average time. I was disappointed that we didn't get to see Cancellara on that course, I thought it was much better suited to him than the 1st one.

by Guest Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:16 am

Froome, Van Den Broeck & Contador confirmed for Vuelta, any other GC conteders confirmed?

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:17 am

I will stick up a Vuelta discussion thread nearer the time.

My predictions I got Yellow and Green jerseys right. Polka Dot I said a Frenchman so I will take that as sort of half right. White and Team I was wrong

by dummy_half Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:46 am

Olly
The team classification is very difficult to predict, as it is based on the cumulative times of the best 4(?) riders on the team on each stage (i.e. can be different riders on different stages), so can be hugely influenced by a team getting a couple of riders in a break that stays away and wins by 10 minutes.

Vuelta is shaping up nicely - I wonder if Heysdjal will be put in, since he didn't use any of his reserves in the Tour (he's down on the provisional start list for the Olympics TT, so presumably is recovered from his injury). Not sure Andy Schleck is expecting to be fit or not. Of course you can always throw into the mix a number of other Spanish climbers who target the Vuelta particularly rather than the Tour.

by **Good Golly I'm Olly** Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:48 am

I believe the Team Classification is the Top 3 riders on the team Dummy

I should imagine Contador will be wanting to impress at the Vuelta. Although will he be the same as he was before? As Valverde has showed, it takes time to get back to your best

by LastDamnation Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:06 am

John wrote:Froome, Van Den Broeck & Contador confirmed for Vuelta, any other GC conteders confirmed?

I would guess Rodriguez and Kreuziger for sure. Not sure who'll lead Euskaltel - perhaps Anton?. Perhaps Gesink? Don't think Andy will be fit.

by Imperial Ghosty Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:16 am

Dummy is right Olly but it's the top 3 riders on each stage that are used instead of 4.

by Azabache Wed Jul 25, 2012 7:43 am

Here's a thought to make the 100th. edition "tough":

Replicate the 1987 route.

Though without the bare heads, skinny steel tubing and down tube shifters!

by LastDamnation Wed Jul 25, 2012 8:32 am

Azabache wrote:Here's a thought to make the 100th. edition "tough":

Replicate the 1987 route.

Though without the bare heads, skinny steel tubing and down tube shifters!

All that's confirmed so far is 3 stages in corsica (1 and 3 will be bunch sprints for sure, 2nd might easily cause someone to lose time), and a TTT in Nice. There's a rumour they'll use all the cities from the original incarnation (lyon, marseille, toulouse, bordeaux, nantes).

WRT mountains, who know what they'll use. I would guess there'll be Alpe D'Huez and Ventoux for sure, probably some of the regulars like Luz Ardiden, Tourmalet, Galibier etc., but they may well go for something special.

by Guest Wed Jul 25, 2012 1:11 pm

The 2013 route is going to be something truly special. It will be physically gruelling and not conscious of an impending Olympics a week later. I expect extremely tough mountain stages and without doubt the winner will be a climbing specialist. There will also be significantly less TT in 2013, that's guaranteed. I think it will be extremely difficult for Wiggins to retain his title next year, if he so wishes to defend it.

by Big Thu Jul 26, 2012 2:48 am

John wrote:The 2013 route is going to be something truly special. It will be physically gruelling and not conscious of an impending Olympics a week later. I expect extremely tough mountain stages and without doubt the winner will be a climbing specialist. There will also be significantly less TT in 2013, that's guaranteed. I think it will be extremely difficult for Wiggins to retain his title next year, if he so wishes to defend it.

I've been mulling over the TTs. There's been a lot of mention of how much there has been this year, and if I'm brutally honest it didn't sit comfortably with me. I've only been following since the 80s, but it hasn't struck me that there was a lot of TT this year, more that there was very little in the last few years. So, as I've had a quiet morning I thought I'd look it up - how much TTing there has been since they were first introduced in the 30s. I've ignored TTTs as teams tend to balance out and in my experience they have a bit less impact on overall standings. Results are summarised in the attached chart (hope this works!)

Tour De France 2012 Discussion Thread - Page 9 Tt_kms10

Tour De France 2012 Discussion Thread - Page 9 Tt_kms10

Looking at that backs up my view that 100km of time trial isn't really that much. Of course some of the years with a lot of TTing included mountain stages, I can remember a few decent climbs on TTs and there's no reason why they shouldn't do that. They may go for something a bit different possibly another mountain TT and/or finishing with a TT into Paris, however, I don't think it's guaranteed that there will be less TT by any stretch of the imagination.

by dummy_half Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:59 am

Big

Good work on that - 100km of ITT is a lot compared with the previous 4 editions of the Tour, but is not exceptional over the longer period since the Tour dropped to 21 days (iirc, late 80s). Certainly, during the Indurain era there were commonly two long ITTs, both in excess of 50km, plus the prologue (which has tended to increase in length over the last decade, from about 4 or 5km to 8 or 9km in the last couple of years).

My suspicion for next year's route is that it will include one long flat ITT and a mountain ITT (which typically are in the regions of 20-30km), perhaps up Ventoux (it's been done before, I think in one of Armstrong's TdF wins). I think the organisers will want to keep l'Alpe d'Huez as a summit finish in a tough massed-start stage.

by ChequeredJersey Thu Jul 26, 2012 4:08 am

I think people only complained there was do much Timetrialling because they have a bizarre aversion of a British cyclist winning and actually being acceptable as the "correct" result

by dummy_half Thu Jul 26, 2012 4:59 am

I just had a look at the Wikipedia entry for the 1987 Tour, as I was fairly sure that was more than three weeks -

26 days, 25 stages, although unlike some other TdFs of the period, without any 'split stages' where separate stages were run in the morning and afternoon.
Prologue of 6km
Team time trial of 41km (relatively short for the era - 60 and 70km TTTs were not uncommon).

First long ITT was 87km (unless Wiki has a typo) before the mountains
2 stages in the Pyrennees
Second ITT was 37km, running up Mont Ventoux
4 Alpine stages
Third ITT of 38km

So 168km of ITT riding + a team time trial.

Indurain's first Tour win in 91 included 5.4km prologue, then 2 long ITTs of 73 and 57km

Armstrong's first tour win in 99 included 6.8km prologue, plus two long flat ITTs of 56.5 and 57km. (and only 2 stages in each of the Alps and Pyrennees)

Oh, and my recollection of when the TdF settled on a strict 3 weeks format seems to have been a bit off - looks like it was the mid 90s, as the length varied by a few days before that.

The main point I was trying to make though was that this Tour did not have much ITT distance in it compared to even fairly recent editions, in terms either of length of the individual stages or cumulatively. There may be an argument to suggest that the mountains stages were too easy and that there were too few of them, but that's not the case that's being made.

by Big Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:13 am

dummy_half wrote:There may be an argument to suggest that the mountains stages were too easy and that there were too few of them, but that's not the case that's being made.

Agree very very much with that! Not so much that there were too few of them, but perhaps they didn't give as much scope as would be desired for the specialists to make gains. As you say though that is very different to saying there is too much time trialling.

by LastDamnation Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:25 am

dummy_half wrote:
My suspicion for next year's route is that it will include one long flat ITT and a mountain ITT (which typically are in the regions of 20-30km), perhaps up Ventoux (it's been done before, I think in one of Armstrong's TdF wins). I think the organisers will want to keep l'Alpe d'Huez as a summit finish in a tough massed-start stage.

2004 they did Alpe d'Huez MTT, about 15k. There was a mountain time trail was last year's giro which was pretty anticlimatic because it was already a foregone conclusion that Contador would win the overall - he won the stage comfortably but not much between the rest of the contenders. The good thing about these stages is that the GC men should be the ones duking it out for the stage. The issue is that because they want to have a set number of finishes in towns changing an ITT to a MTT probably means an extra boring stage.
I think if you have a long flat ITT (like 65k) and a mountain ITT it could be good for the race - you're less likely to get climbers out of the running than if you have two 50k ish ITTs like this year, but they will lose enough time in the flat ITT that they'll be forced on to the offensive.
Also, TTT are stupid and shouldn't be in the race imo.

by dummy_half Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:42 am

One of the things that seems to have been forgotten in a lot of these discussions is that the Tour de France is a race to find the best all-rounder, whether that is a climber that can hold his own in the TTs or a TT specialist who can defend well in the mountains - it, unlike the Giro and Vuelta, is not primarily to find the best climber.

LD
I vaguely recalled the l'Alpe d'Huez ITT, and think it was considered a bit of a failure in terms of diluting the atmosphere on the climb, which is why I think it will be used as the finish to a massed start stage (probably similar to the stage of 2 or 3 years ago that went over a couple of HC and couple of 1st cat climbs before it, rather than the alternative where it was a single climb after a long run through the valley). Mountain TTs certainly can bring a different dynamic to the race, particularly if they include a longish flat run into the climb - I remember riders doing 10-15km on their TT bikes and then switching to a conventional bike just before the climb.

As for finishing in towns, there are a few places where that is possible in the mountains or where you can have a tough punchy finishing climb, so wouldn't necessarily mean another sprint stage.

TTTs - well, they can be useful in spreading the field early, but in the absence of stage finish bonuses and with the current fashion for longer prologues, I think their value has been reduced. Better to try and create a selective stage in the first 3 or 4 mass start stages, like they did this year.

by Big Thu Jul 26, 2012 7:22 am

I think that one of the benefits of mountain ITTs is that they don't need to finish at the peak or immediately after the most challenging bit of descent for mountain specialists to get some benefit. Just sticking a decent cat 1 or HC climb somewhere on the route will sort the climbers from the non-climbers because there is no scope for the chasers to regroup and work together to catch the leader.

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