Whose luck could turn?

Well living in Madrid, it's impossible to escape the football fever sweeping the country here. I feel happy for them. Lord knows they need something to cheer about given the state of their economy. No European team has won the Euro Cup and the World Cup successively. In knockout football, Spain has not conceded a goal since 2006.

To me it's a remarkable achievement given they were perennial underachievers in football for so many years. The last time Spain beat Italy in a title match was 1920. This was your typical team that would be talked up before the tournaments, would play one or two good games and then get dumped out of the tournament in the quarters or first elimination round.

This made me think, is there an equivalent in world rugby waiting to enjoy a similar fate? Before their title in Euro 2008 they hadn't won anything really of note. Obviously they got an influx of good players with club experience at the top level. You could see how their confidence grew in 2008 after winning on penalties against Italy. That was previously the typical game that saw them eliminated but the belief grew exponentially thereafter and really they rode that wave of self belief to World Cup victory in 2010. They enjoyed luck along the way (Robben missing two clear chances in the final with only Casillas to beat, the semi victory against Portugal on penalties this year, a borderline goal against Croatia to make them top the group and a few others along the way) but they also showed moments of dominance like against Germany in 2010 or Italy last Sunday.

So to me there are a few contenders for those who have yet to taste World Cup success.

Ireland: You can say they know all about knockout footy. Munster before and Leinster recently with Ulster and other sides performing on the European stage, you have to say experience of those pressure moments could well count for a lot in a World Cup situation. Obviously test rugby is a step up but the pressure and knowledge of how to close out a tight match are important skills that have often eluded more illustrious teams like the ABs. Ireland are the type of team that can turn on the heat but annoyingly there doesn't seem to be much hot water in the cylinder and the follow up performance seems to be lukewarm at best. But what if there was the situation where Ireland found itself in a group of death and they strung two great performances together to top the pool. Could that be enough to raise their self belief and enable them to call upon that A performance when they really needed it later on?

Wales: They are always there or thereabouts in the European club scene but somehow fail to make that final hurdle in the second half of the competition after the 6N. They have been up and down in the 6N more so than Ireland but have also won more and, moreover, when they do win they tend to do so in emphatic style. What has eluded them so far is an ability to win against the big SH sides. They came close against SA and somehow didn't win a game in Australia this series but imagine a scenario that they beat say SA, NZ or Australia or a couple in successive years. What impact will that have on their confidence and performance? Losing can become a habit but as teams like Spain in football or NZ in rugby (at least out of RWC tournaments!) have shown so too can winning.

Scotland: Ok some might say this team is a long shot. But to me the biggest hurdle Scotland has faced is consistency. They seem quite adept at pulling a big scalp out of the rugby calendar each year but then lose games they should have fought harder for more. They won the very last 5N but haven't really done much of note since. A 6N win seems beyond them based on previous results but what would a win do for them in terms of belief? Edinburgh has shown great spirit on the European stage. Why can't a similar thing happen on a national level?

France: Really with their record, it's difficult to see how they haven't won a RWC after reaching 3 finals. They came so close last time but were poor in the following 6N. Often their biggest liability seems to be themselves. They can be gloriously good and atrociously poor. String together a few more of the former at the right times and things could be quite different. When France believe they can win they often do so. The trick is for them to make the opposition think that they will have a hard time winning.

Argentina: Their RWC record is impressive given their lack of exposure to a challenging regional tournament. They might have a tough time in the new 4N but what better way to improve by regularly playing the top ranked sides. If they can grow the game in their own country and organise a professional league rather than rely on Europe for their exposure to rugby outside the international calendar, then they might well surprise in the years to come.

So have I missed anyone out and what chances do you give those teams I mentioned of becoming the rugby equivalent of Spain and tasting World Cup success?

Re. France, I think the days of them deserving the stereotype of 'gloriously good' or 'atrociously poor' are gone. These days they're a good European side but don't tend to have the peaks and troughs they once had.

Of the sides you mention though, they are (along with Argentina due to the benefit of their upcoming 4Ns experience) probably the only ones likely to challenge the old order of NZ, SA, Australia and England for World Cup glory.

On the International seen Scotland should have a fairly decent level of confidence behind them after a good summer.

They need to find a No10 or a couple of them because that's where they have really been let down.

I beg to differ on France sugar. They lost to Tonga in the RWC and were sub-par against Japan and Canada. They gave it a go and tactically took their foot off the gas against NZ and then poured it on against the English in the first half and gave NZ one hell of a fright in the final.

Then cue the 6N. They looked dominant against Italy and Scotland with some glorious tries. Then fought back against Ireland but capitulated to England and Wales. Now no doubt those teams contributed to that situation but they were up and down like a yo-yo. A team with that much depth and talent should be a lot better than just a good European side.

Wales seem the most settled, consistent and confident. Having a decent coach seems to be key to their success. If France win anything, for me, I reckon it'd be fluke. And by that I don't mean undeserving, but just their inability to play 2 good games in a row, it's like they get bored of winning or something.

I think that Wales (please hear me out before giving me stick) are probably the least likely of the teams on the list to improve their lot. We are too much like the English football team, we have a more than two good games in a row and we are destined for greatness, but if we have two bad games on the trot the team is a disgrace and the whole set up needs to go. Whilst that is just the mindset of the fans, and the press (as a generalisation, most on here are not as bad as the international only fans I deal with at work), it can't be good for the players to get hyped up and up in the press only to be slammed a fortnight later.

I think that Italy and Argentina are going to be the two sides that really show progress. Within 10-15 years I reckon Italy will have won the 6Ns, or atleast been real contenders right to the end.

As for Argentina, I think the 4Ns is either going to make or break them. For years we have said that if they had regular rugby then they should come on leaps and bounds. However if they take a thumping in all the games, then how long will it be before players start taking the contracts with clubs in the NH, and deciding to retire from international early, or just never to pull on a Pumas jersey at all.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Then cue the 6N. They looked dominant against Italy and Scotland with some glorious tries. Then fought back against Ireland but capitulated to England and Wales. Now no doubt those teams contributed to that situation but they were up and down like a yo-yo. A team with that much depth and talent should be a lot better than just a good European side.

I think that also shows the relative strengths of the sides they played. No disrespect to Scotland and Italy but they were/are the poorest 6Ns sides. Ireland were pretty average. England were improving rapidly by the time they played France after a slow start and Wales finished strongly.

Even with their depth I think people sometimes overrate France and expect too much from them.

Sugar and Spikes

I agree with you re: France

True enough. Maybe they get bigger expectations from south of the equator because they are Europe's most successful side against the SH big 3. But I can see why a team like England who has a very favourable record against France might well think what all the fuss is about.

France have had all the flair driven out of their rugby in recent years at international level by Laporte, Mad Marc and now PSA. So they now seem to move between inept and competent.

This FRA side of the last world cup was probably the worst in memory in terms of playing quality.. yet they still got to the final. They showed a lot of heart, something many pundits/posters have accused them of lacking in the past with better outfits.

Given that it should be a matter of time. They have made the SF in 6/7 competitions so they are tournament performers. It will happen... perhaps not in the immediate future, but it will eventually happen.

Football is a far bigger sport, has far more competitive teams yet only 8 sides have ever won the world cup in 19 competitions.

France will join the 4 sides which have won the sport in rugby but in 50 years time I very much doubt that the no. of winners will exceed 5. There is just too much going against the lesser sides.

fa0019 wrote:France will join the 4 sides which have won the sport in rugby but in 50 years time I very much doubt that the no. of winners will exceed 5. There is just too much going against the lesser sides.

That is a seriously bold call.

So by 2067 the only new team to win the RWC will be France? I don't buy it.

I think we have only taken the baby steps into the professional game and the rugby landscape will be very different in 20 years never mind 50 years. I believe that some countries like Argentina and Italy are sleeping giants and that other countries down the line can expect to undergo serious change. The United States and Russia are decades off the top tier teams but 50 years is a long long time.

Think back to 1992 which was 20 years ago. The players were amatuers and the likes of Otley RFC (less than 5,000) were hosting Rugby World Cup matches. The Heineken Cup had not even existed and there had only even been 2 Rugby World Cups in all history.

We have seen 4 different winners of the RWC in the last 25 years. I have no doubt in my mind that we could see another 2 winners in the next 50.

Which ones Stag? Make the bold call yourself?

I think either Italy or Argentina will have managed a RWC with along with France and one of the "Celtic Nations" by 2067.

Its too long a time for things to remain constant.

I think what SugarNSpikes is saying re. France is that, where they used to go from the sublime to the ridiculous, now they can still do the ridiculous but not so much the sublime. The flair seems to have gone a bit, and that was what used to allow them to pull off the 'sublime'. As Sugar says, they just seem like a good European side, but not the best in Europe like they used to be. The World Cup final you point out as an example of giving the All Blacks a good fight - in the past that would have been a game they would have won. The troughs are there, but not so the peaks.

It would be great if it happened... but I just don't see it myself.

As a Scot I find the call to win the RWC as a joke. RWC aren't won by teams fielding their best XV on a given day... winning teams have great squads, and many disappointed guys left behind also.

At the moment with 2 pro sides we will be lucky to field an entire squad of first choice players let alone every single one of them world class.

In the end its all about demographics... we have less than 10% of the playing numbers as ENG and have far less financial support both on a per capita and overall figure.. so how can we compete?

Its not about getting the odd crazy result... its about stringing together 7 matches of consistent world class quality which will never happen unless a shed load more people start playing the game and we have money to invest.

Italy - will never happen... take out all the foreign imports out of their sides and they will be worse than most of the PI teams. They have always relied on foreign imports from Dominguez to Parisse to Castrogiovanni.

Argentina, perhaps but they would need a stronger domestic setup to enable their players and their test side to be available at all times.. this looks far far away.

Well like you say 50 years is a long time. A lot can happen during that time. Japan might be up with the best and the Russians or the ex-Russian satellite teams could be playing in the 6N by then.

I don't know, I've seen all too many peaks by the French for my liking. I do agree though their attacking flair seems to have gone from their big games. Now they rely too heavily on defence and winning the breakdown.

Well Kia, you missed South Africa, we have had bad luck, pot luck, poopy luck, tough luck, bad bounce luck, just plain all the negative lucks you could want over the past 4 years. (Except for 2009)

We need lots of luck, bounce of the ball luck, no injury luck, Rugby Championship luck, RWC luck, good coach luck, etc.etc.etc.

But you've already won two Biltong. Don't get greedy. I'm talking about teams never to have won a World Cup.

That said, your luck could well turn this year. Can't wait for the Springboks vs ABs. It's going to be brutal!

I think France could win the next world cup and do a Spain. In terms of the six nations, Scotland could end their wait for the title, although very unlikely, and Clermont could finally win the H cup

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:But you've already won two Biltong. Don't get greedy. I'm talking about teams never to have won a World Cup.

That said, your luck could well turn this year. Can't wait for the Springboks vs ABs. It's going to be brutal!

You can keep the RWC for as long as you want, if you give us a 75% win ratio during that time.

BB - you'd rather sacrifice the next 10 titles and be the rugby equiv. to SA cricket???? I'd be the other way around myself... rather be one who wins when it matters.

Sorry no can do. If you really want to talk about greed, AB supporters demand that win ratio and the RWC!

Fa, it always matters mate. That's the problem.

FA, we've got our name on the trophy, I am happy with that, the reality is a 75% win rate will bring you more trophies either way.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Sorry no can do. If you really want to talk about greed, AB supporters demand that win ratio and the RWC!

Fa, it always matters mate. That's the problem.

KIa, they can call us chokers as much as they want, but when we thump everyone in sight, I will laugh in my sleeve 50 times, and only cry once every four years.

Just look at last year, PDV sacraficed test wins, and then got dumped in the QF anyway, at least if we had the 75% win rate, I could hold onto that, now all I have is PDV and his 58% win rate over the last two years of his tenure and my new friend Bruce.

didn't help NZ from 91-07 mind!

What we demanded and what we got indeed proved not to be the same thing during that period. Still didn't stop us from making those demands then and certainly won't stop us from making them now. That's what happens when your team spoils you.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:What we demanded and what we got indeed proved not to be the same thing during that period. Still didn't stop us from making those demands then and certainly won't stop us from making them now. That's what happens when your team spoils you.

Oh you braggart.

I'm not condoning our greed. Just saying what fuels it.

Yeah, right, Millions may believe you, but I won't.

If I've told you once, I've told you 8 million times, don't exaggerate Biltong.

will you guys get a room... soon enough I'm sure all your players will turn Judas, move to Europe towards the green and deplete your resources enough so that Wales will take their rightful place at the kings table of world rugby... and do a Jimmy White no doubt.... 5 consecutive finals, zero wins

You didn't write that from a plane, did you fa0019? Seems like you're in an oxygen depleted environment. Alert the pilot. Ring a flight attendant. Do something man!

fa0019 wrote:will you guys get a room... soon enough I'm sure all your players will turn Judas, move to Europe towards the green (Ireland?) and deplete your resources enough so that Wales will take their rightful place at the kings table of world rugby... and do a Jimmy White no doubt.... 5 consecutive finals, zero wins

We've already started this process

France? Pah dont make me laugh.

France cant play at Twickenham. They get to Twickenham and merde their pants. hahahahaha

They don't have to meet England at Twickenham necessarily to win Triangulation.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:They don't have to meet England at Twickenham necessarily to win Triangulation.

They damned well will but i digress......it wont matter if they play portugal at Twickers...too many bad memories for them now. Bless.

We're not even necessarily talking about 2015. But you seem primed for an England final. Fair enough and good luck to you. Personally I hope we end up in the same pool.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:We're not even necessarily talking about 2015. But you seem primed for an England final. Fair enough and good luck to you. Personally I hope we end up in the same pool.

Are NZ going to fall out of the top four in the rankings prior to the draw then?

If France did win 2015, I could see them winning all the 6N up to 2019 and also RWC 2019 itself. In essence, do a Spain.

kia as you may know spain is a football only country as NZ are a rugby only country(within reason)

both are the best by a mile and they have a philosophy. there is no luck whatsoever. Its all about the philosphy and passion they both have and they dont just play there sports better, but they move the sports forward

only NZ can be like spain at the moment. wales i suppose has the passion but not realy that philosphy(playing the game there way).

spain stuck at there way of playing and it paid off. NZ are the same.

The only team that has the chance of winning a few on the spin in the near future is NZ.

England are the other nation that has the resources to get there, but england on the whole compete at so many sports so its kinda tough

I can't agree with that mystir

SA and Aus have won 2 world cups each and have been consistently near the top so there is no reason why they can't win a few more and may be even set up a dynasty. Esp with the increasing number of professional teams in both countries.

Also how many sports does England really compete at? that Aus does not compete at (with a far smaller population?)

Relatively recent Olympic medal hauls would suggest that Aus can compete with England (and Scotland and Wales) at many sports at the same time (note cricket, rugby, rugby league and netball are not included but generally Aus have been better so no reason why they can't win a few on the spin.

Gold Silver Bronze
GB Aus GB Aus GB Aus
2008 19 14 13 15 15 17
2004 9 17 9 16 12 16
2000 11 16 10 25 7 17
1996 1 9 8 9 6 23
1992 5 7 3 9 12 11

ngany england competes at almost every sport out there- no other nations plays so many at a competitive level - aus would be second - but your not disproving my point at all, and i think you have a misconception about what competitive means. yeah aus have historcally had alot of swimers and the oylimpics awards swimming big time- good luck to them mind

aus would find it more difficult to get to dominate rugby than england cause it doesnt have the same resource- however it doesnt mean it wont happen!!

btw you way you have glossed over my main point,and concentrated on the one that coud be applied to aus,sa or france- although england are the richest of those resource wise, so i put them top of the potential list.. but the main point is no nation is gonna short term get to nz or spains current level, because we dont live and breath the respective sports the way they do..

Mystir, is it fair to say that England has probably been the richest rugby nation for a very long time (100+ years), and is just a reflection of your country's overall wealth. You could say you've had a level of potential with respect to 'resources' for a very long time, what's going to change? Will that potential finally be realised?

Also, the players playing rugby in the UK may take exception to the way you say that they don't dominate, because it is not the number 1 sport, almost like they don't take the game seriously. I can see this as a sound argument, if you guys didn't have such a large player base.

when did i say any off it would change?

Is England really the richest rugby nation, what about France?

Anyhow I agree with EBOP, saying a sport is not lived and breathed by the 1 million plus that plays rugby in England is not even remotely fair or just to those players.

When an amateur club player who works during the day takes his "dietary supplements" to work, and it is based on his specific requirements to become a fitter, healthier, leaner and better rugby player, spending his time in gym to build muscle mass or fitness and then spends 3-4 times a week at his club and plays matches on the weekend. Are you going to tell him he doesn't live, eat and breathe rugby?

Brazil live and breathe football as well, as do Argentina and most other South American countries. In Europe there are plenty of countries where football is the most popular sport and the same amount of passion as in Spain. Spain is football mad but are European champs in basketball, lead all 3 categories in the MotoGP, Alonso leads Formula 1, Nadal is number 2 and I could list a lot more sports as well. Football dominates the press but I don't buy this football only country talk. Football is the national sport here just as rugby is the national sport in NZ but there are plenty of other sports that NZers compete in and do equally well as our rugby team.

Spain had the philosophy and passion not just recently. They didn't get any notable results though until recently. I'm not saying it's only luck. Of course talent is important and tactics. But look at a side like Holland who has the same passion and they haven't won anything of note.

To beat Spain, you have to find a way to beat them and one which isn't just replicating their own style. No team is unbeatable and it certainly has a lot more to do than the way that sport is perceived in the country.

The resources thing doesn't wash with me either. A country of 4 million has only limited resources. You pour all of its resources into one sport and neglect the rest and it's probably still a drop in the bucket for a sport in the UK that is not in the top funded sports.

Kia i am gonna be honest- i dont really know where to start with your post. Its either my bad english or you have completely missed the point.

spain and NZ are both the best example we have of nations that heavily concentrate on one sport and have a completely new philosphy and way of playing the game- there are the best and rightly so.

Luck is never gonna come into a team dominating football or rugby. The game needs to loved and they need to stick by this love through thick and thin. Spain did not give up there philosophy and it paid of- that is not through luck but skill and determination and sheer bloddy mindedness.

Spain is a football mad country- england has pockets all over the place that play and support different sports. bringing up a couple of motor drivers(especially in a sport that england trumps them 10 fold across the board- isnt gonna help)

kia i think you have highlighted the lack of understanding(of my point) by bringing up holland- holland never stuck by there total football philosphy, maybe they should have!!

spain stuck by there possesion dominance philosophy through thick and thin and eventually it paid off. holland are the perfect example to my point really