US Open Seeds announced

First topic message reminder :

At The USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center

New York

Aug. 27-Sept. 9

Men

1. Roger Federer, Switzerland

2. Novak Djokovic, Serbia

3. Andy Murray, Great Britain

4. David Ferrer, Spain

5. Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, France

6. Tomas Berdych, Czech Republic

7. Juan Martin del Potro, Argentina

8. Janko Tipsarevic, Serbia

9. John Isner, United States

10. Juan Monaco, Argentina

11. Nicolas Almagro, Spain

12. Marin Cilic, Croatia

13. Richard Gasquet, France

14. Alexandr Dolgopolov, Ukraine

15. Milos Raonic, Canada

16. Gilles Simon, France

17. Kei Nishikori, Japan

18. Stanislas Wawrinka, Switzerland

19. Philipp Kohlschreiber, Germany

20. Andy Roddick, United States

21. Tommy Haas, Germany

22. Florian Mayer, Germany

23. Mardy Fish, United States

24. Marcel Granollers, Spain

25. Fernando Verdasco, Spain

26. Andreas Seppi, Italy

27. Sam Querrey, United States

28. Mikhail Youzhny, Russia

29. Viktor Troicki, Serbia

30. Feliciano Lopez, Spain

31. Julien Benneteau, France

32. Jeremy Chardy, France

http://www.cbssports.com/tennis/story/19855998/us-open-seeds

The Special Juan wrote:And again!!

" Andy Murray has been seeded third for the US Open as he continues to chase his first Grand Slam title.

The Olympic champion will find out later on Thursday whether he is in the same half of the draw as Roger Federer or 2011 winner Novak Djokovic. "

somebody probably wrote in and got them to change it

Yeah, me.

Beeb's very poor at proof reading and accuracy.

10 minutes

It may or may not be being streamed live on the US Open website. http://www.usopen.org/index.html

Federer gets Murray.

It is live now.

laverfan wrote:Federer gets Murray.

unexpected does that blow the conspiracy theory out of the water?

Line 23 Fish
Line 24 Mayer.

Line 56 Nishikori
Line 73 Kohli.

It's pretty unimpressive I'd say. Choosing the 3&4 they put two little things that look like mini hockey pucks with the seed numbers onto them into the cup and the guy had to chose them one at a time for the teller to call them. So there was a 50/50 chance on the face of it, but I don't think it's pure enough to completely cosh conspiracy theorists.

The odd thing is I still can't work out which side of the draw Murray and Ferrer fall on for certain - I think Murray is on Fed's side.

Line 88 Haas
Line 105 Roddick.

Line 120 Wawrinka.
Line 8 Verdasco
Line 25 Querrey
Line 40 Lopez

Djoko must be pretty chuffed, unless.... where is JMDP?

Line 57 Chardy
Line 72 Troicki
Line 89 Youzhny

Line 104 Seppi.

Line 121 Benneteau.

Mens draw complete.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

laverfan wrote:Federer gets Murray.

unexpected does that blow the conspiracy theory out of the water?

Absolutely.

Federer-Berdych, Murray-Tsonga, Tipsarevic-Ferrer, del Potro-Djokovic

And poor old Dave has Kevin Anderson in the first round. There's a potential upset; so glad Murray avoided him.

The Special Juan wrote:Federer-Berdych, Murray-Tsonga, Tipsarevic-Ferrer, del Potro-Djokovic

Nice potential QF line-up except for the match that time forgot - I don't think Tipsarevic-Ferrer will get them out in their thousands if they make their seedings.

On the subject of cupcakes - Djoko gets one of his homer bunnies in the SF!

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

laverfan wrote:Federer gets Murray.

unexpected does that blow the conspiracy theory out of the water?

As far as I remember the conspiracy theory was that Nadal was almost every time given an easier road to the final by putting Djokovic and Federer into the same half.
Nadal is absent now, so not sure how this blows anything out of the water :-)

The Special Juan wrote:Federer-Berdych, Murray-Tsonga, Tipsarevic-Ferrer, del Potro-Djokovic

"Nadal's quarter" looks very empty now! Who has the opportunity to take advantage?

prostaff85 wrote:

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

laverfan wrote:Federer gets Murray.

unexpected does that blow the conspiracy theory out of the water?

As far as I remember the conspiracy theory was that Nadal was almost every time given an easier road to the final by putting Djokovic and Federer into the same half.
Nadal is absent now, so not sure how this blows anything out of the water :-)

No the theory was that Federer was always given the easier draw. When Fedal was seeded numbers 1 and 2 Federer could either get Murray (who he relatively struggled with early on) or Djokovic. He seemed to always get Djokovic.
Then when Djokovic and Nadal were 1 and 2, Federer could draw one of those two. As we know he prefers to face Djokovic rather than Nadal, and he nearly always got Djokovic.
This time Federer has got the harder semi though, so I don't think the conspiracy theory holds any water.

I've noticed poor Donald Young was paired against Federer in the 1st round. It's just not his..... year?

Where is that cupcake socal?

The conspiracy was that the draw is set to make a Fedal final more likely producing $$$$$$$$$$$$ for Nike.

Therefore:

1. You give Fed and Nadal the easiest opponents possible to maximise that possibility - i.e. there is more than one parameter.

2. When Fedal were Nos. 1&2 that meant you put Djoko in Fed's half because he is more likely to get beaten by Fed leaving Nadal to crush Murray.

3. When Djoko/Nadal were Nos. 1&2 that meant you put Fed in Djoko's half because you won't get a Fedal final otherwise.

4. That is how you got Fed vs. Djok in the USO SF every year from 2008-2011 regardless of their seeding.

1. The conspiracy becomes that it is necessary to give Fed a cupcake draw to help Nike.

2. Murray is therefore on Djoko's side of the draw

3. Er....

I read that in the last 19 majors, Nadal has had Murray in his half.

The Special Juan wrote:I read that in the last 19 majors, Nadal has had Murray in his half.

AO, this year?

anyway onto the actual draw, seems pretty even to me with regards to QF and SF. Djokovic has the easier semi but also the toughest quarter (by a distance) while Federer has the tougher semi but probably an easier quarter (considering Berdych's form). As a Murray fan, quite happy for him to draw Tsonga, whom he's got a very good against.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I read that in the last 19 majors, Nadal has had Murray in his half.

AO, this year?

anyway onto the actual draw, seems pretty even to me with regards to QF and SF. Djokovic has the easier semi but also the toughest quarter (by a distance) while Federer has the tougher semi but probably an easier quarter (considering Berdych's form). As a Murray fan, quite happy for him to draw Tsonga, whom he's got a very good against.

Sorry 16/19 last majors even.

Of course there is no draw fixing. But this time there is nothing to "fix" anyway. Although anyone interested in speculation should note that Djokovic has drawn Del Potro in his quarter. You know Del Potro who just a few weeks ago tired Federer out at the Olympics. And Del Potro the only player other than Nadal to beat Federer in a slam final... a US Open slam final at that. And Del Potro who has played two scary 5 set matches against Federer at RG (including this years)... Phew!

I did note that HE, I think it's a good thing as it sort of makes up for Djokovic's easier semi-final draw.

Murray's like route:

Bogomolov
Dodig
Lopez
Raonic
Tsonga
Federer
Djokovic

Federer's likely route:

Young
Phau
Verdasco
Fish/Karlovic/Simon
Querrey/Berdych
Murray
Djokovic

Djokovic's likely route:

Lorenzi
Dutra Silva
Benneteau
Dolgopolov/Wawrinka
Del Potro
Tipsarevic/Ferrer
?

Murray's first three rounds are fine, but he'll have to be on the ball against Raonic. Federer has a real cakewalk through to the semis (with the possible exception of Simon if he's playing well). Djokovic more up and down. Comfortable opening three matches, Benneteau can be difficult (very), Dolgopolov/Wawrinka ditto (though equally both those matches could be strolls in the park for Novak) and of course DelPo is the toughest QF there is out there.

Full draw is up now.

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/r1s2.html

I'm feeling optimistic. It could have been worse for Murray although Raonic is a bit touch-and-go. Tsonga..... Just hope he doesn't bring his A-Game for 3 sets. And then the big boys. Del Potro could be given a run by Nalbandian as it's the first round and Nalbandian won't have fallen apart.

That is a lovely draw for Novak!

Delpo in the QF is potentially tough but let's not forget he has had a wrist injury recently and was convincingly beaten by Nole in Cincy. Over BO5, I'd make Nole the definite favourite in this match up.

It's an easier read on Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_US_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_Singles

Pre-Injury I'd say it was 50-50, post-injury I make Djokovic favourite especially if DelPo is carrying an injury. Poor guy, it's just not going right for him this year aside from the Olympics.

Novak will be the happiest. Apart from Delpo he should have little trouble reaching the final.

Next I'd put Federer who has a decent draw apart from getting the Murray semi.

Murray though will probably have to beat Raonic, Tsonga, Novak and Federer in a row to win it. Big ask. But who knows, sometimes the tougher looking draws turn out to be the easier ones.

Don't know why people are banging on about Raonic (no one on here, just in general). There's a reason he's not in the Top 10 and I think Murray, if he's on top of his game, will dispose of him in 3. I remember last year at Wimbledon Gasquet scared me and he was beaten badly in the last 2 sets. Bet I get proven wrong now.

Raonic would still be the top 3's least favoured 4th round opponent though Juan. He's beaten Murray, twice pushed Federer to final set tie breaks...

I agree he has a bit to do to live up to the reputation he's already gained amongst some observers, but he's a threat. He seems to perform better against the better players, so I'm hoping he may fall before the 4th round.

Danny_1982 wrote:Raonic would still be the top 3's least favoured 4th round opponent though Juan. He's beaten Murray, twice pushed Federer to final set tie breaks...

I agree he has a bit to do to live up to the reputation he's already gained amongst some observers, but he's a threat. He seems to perform better against the better players, so I'm hoping he may fall before the 4th round.

I understand that, although he did beat a below average Murray on clay. As I've said I've not seen a lot of him but I've looked at the draws he's been in and he hasn't done too well in the majors and even the 1000's. I was looking forward to a possible Murray v Raonic match at Wimbledon but he was defeated by Querrey in 5. Still, he's young and should improve but I don't think the top players really fear him yet if they are near the top of their games.

Personally, it is a very mixed draw for Murray. Early rounds should hold no fears but from the fourth round onwards - very tough.

Berdych v Goffin! Ouch

It's just such a relief to see the end of the 'victimise Djokovic' draw bore posts.

Just think; in the last few months the draw fix and week era myths have both been blown apart.

Happy days!

Well I don't want to re-open a can of worms here so will only say that sorry to disagree but how can we have a weak era with a GOAT with seventeen slam wins, a clay court GOAT with eleven slam wins, plus a five times slam winner plying their trade. We'll agree to disagree on that one and leave it at that.

prostaff85 wrote:

As far as I remember the conspiracy theory was that Nadal was almost every time given an easier road to the final by putting Djokovic and Federer into the same half.
Nadal is absent now, so not sure how this blows anything out of the water :-)

The 12v12 and 14v17 was Djokovic v Federer and the original posting was related to that. The ESPN study was related to R1 draw-fixing and degree of difficulty for top seeds. As some one has pointed out, this had the added benefit of assisting an easier Nadal v Murray, so there could be Fedal finals. The University of Talinn study (by a lawyer) looked at only Djokovic v Federer and discarded FO because it did not fit the pattern. Quite a few posters have written on the subject. Masters draws were also analysed.

I did an analysis of draws when one of the Top 3 was missing.

You can pick an angle, and we can discuss it again, if you like.

PS: May I add this link for your perusal - https://www.606v2.com/t33610-names-numbers-and-nole#1468074

CaledonianCraig wrote:a clay court GOAT with ten slam wins... plying their trade. We'll agree to disagree on that one and leave it at that.

This post doesn't go down well with me.
Firstly remove the words 'clay-court.'
Secondly Nadal doesn't have 10 slams.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well I don't want to re-open a can of worms here so will only say that sorry to disagree but how can we have a weak era with a GOAT with eighteen slam wins, a clay court GOAT with ten slam wins, plus a five times slam winner plying their trade. We'll agree to disagree on that one and leave it at that.

18 slams?!

I think Cc's gifted French Open 2011 to Federer here

OK I know he was 5-2 up in the 1st set and all that but still...

CaledonianCraig wrote:Well I don't want to re-open a can of worms here so will only say that sorry to disagree but how can we have a weak era with a GOAT with eighteen slam wins, a clay court GOAT with ten slam wins, plus a five times slam winner plying their trade. We'll agree to disagree on that one and leave it at that.

I don't even think you bother reading posts any more, just react.

I was saying there is no weak era, and Federer has proven it by going to #1 at the age of 31.