Frankel...buying money or not?

Having proved yesterday that all is well with him does the board share the view of many that the 2000 Guineas is as good as won ? Does he warrant the 1/2 or even shorter odds offered on Classic glory or his he only that price because he is the best of a mediocre bunch? Ive just read Timeforms essay on Frankels two year old campaign and as you would expect they leave no stone unturned and no single piece of form ignored.His early wins are hard to evaluate because he won them by so far and so easily.His Royal Lodge win was "nothing out of the ordinary" but the sectionals recorded by him point to him having the potential to be extremely useful.His Dewhurst win over Roderic O Connor was, they claim, the best performance in the race since the turn of the century aside from New Approach.High praise indeed from an organisation that doesnt throw hyperbole around like confetti,as some do.Rating of 133p reads very well among some of the very best 2yos that weve seen,all sounds too good to be true doesnt it? All this leads to the question of would you want him at 1/2 or shorter or the fest of the field at 7/1 bar? My own view is that only mugs do odds on,if youve got the two you dont need the one.I reckon we might see a big field Guineas because people are thinking theyve got nothing to lose by having a go at him and we might end up with a crazy situation of the draw having a massive effect,like in last years 1000 and with that in mind he just doesnt interest me as a betting proposition.He might win by half the track,he might be the second coming,he might be the best horse weve seen in quite a long while but surely the safe play is to let him roll,isnt it?

certainly NO horse is worth betting odds on for the 2000 Guineas.

I already have a little bet on Frankel at 11/10 as I saw this coming a couple of months ago, but really I always think this race comes too early in the season to be much of a betting proposition.

I am more interested in whether Frankel will go for the Derby after the Guineas. I think he holds a Dante entry so they must be thinking about the Derby for him I would think. Is 3/1 a good price now? If he wins the Guineas will he go odds on for that too?

His breeding suggests a mile and half is within range,theres lots of stamina in the dams family but the dam herself,KIND, although bred to stay was in fact a sprinter type who barely got seven.He strikes me as to free going and headstrong to get 12 and i certainly wouldnt be backing him for the Blue Riband.If he wins the Guineas then most connections feel almost duty bound to go to Epsom,if he goes odds on then he will be the worst priced horse for the Derby since Entrepeneur.Over the longer trip he really would have it all to prove.

I suppose it all depends on what kind of competition emerges as well.

it may not become much clearer until the Dante at York

I'm sure, one H Cecil knows what he is doing with all the good horses, he's handled.
Greenham, Guineas, Dante, Derby .

Take Kris for instance, Greenham , then Guineas. Then Royal Ascot not a Derby horse.

Slip Anchor (Derby Horse) Lingfield Derby trial, Epsom.
Reference Point: Dante then Epsom.

In Henry; we trust...

If you look at all the factors that make Frankels price, you might think that it is quite an attractive proposition, even at 1/2 ... Has he done anything wrong on the racecourse ? As a 2 year old, No, and on Saturday, again No. I would't exactly say that all he's beaten is trees and his attitude looks spot on. I would definitely say that on the evidence of Saturday, for a first racecourse appearance at 3, he looks to have trained on in a fashion plenty of 'hype horses' haven't over the years.
Henry Cecil knows what time of the day it is, i'd rather it was in his capable hands than any other trainer, and you'd like to think that Frankel will improve leaps and bounds in time for the guineas.
On the breeding front, on the Sires side obviously there are no question marks, on the dams side you would lean to the conclusion that Frankel is more of a guineas horse than a derby horse as there are some doubts regarding stamina, although saying that, he gives me the impression that he will develop even more physically and that he could quite easily cruise for further and then press the button and fly.
So to the question, is backing Frankel for the guineas buying money ... No .... But i think it quite close !!!!!! .... and i think i'd be keen to be on his side for the Derby at this stage too.

There you go ... that's put the mockers on poor Frankels career !!!!

thing is if they aim Frankel for the Derby will they really put him in the Dante as well?
surely they will go straight to Epsom after the Guineas?

Yes, it will be straight to Epsom, after Frankel wins the Guineas.

SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:Yes, it will be straight to Epsom, after Frankel wins the Guineas.

I will be going then!

If I consider that there is nothing in the field to beat Frankel, I'm quite comfortable with a 50% return on investment in 1min 40secs.
What more did the naysayers expect from him on Saturday? He had lots of condition & Sir Henry admitted that he was only about 80%. To my mind, he looks a monster - reminded me of Zafonic.

I've just heard that Frankel won't be going to Epsom

Sporting Life

Solerina

Solerina wrote:I've just heard that Frankel won't be going to Epsom

Sporting Life

Solerina

I saw that last night, they are saying he's more suited to Ascot?

I said he was a monster and would win easily, but I never envisaged that.
Not going to Epsom as connections don't believe that he will stay 1m4f at the moment.

I think this is a shame for racing and probably highlights the problem with the flat season.

the thing is the St James Palace Stakes does not have anything like the profile of the Derby. If Frankel doesn't run in the Derby then he will never be a famous horse in my opinion. Obviously in racing circles he may well go down as one of the all time greats, but he will fade into obscurity amongst the wider general public

steveo77

You are absolutely correct in that the Derby is the No1 classic. However, over the years, a number of distinctly average horses have won it and some people may remember them for no other reason than the fact that they won the Derby. The Derby is quite unique being run over a severely undulating track unlike any other classic run here (obviously excluding the Oaks) or in France, Ireland or USA. Some may say that it is the supreme test as it requires perfect balance as well as speed and stamina

Frankel can build his own legacy. If he continues to win Gr1 mile or 7f races and maybe a 10f Gr1 (Eclipse/International/Champion Stakes) in the same breathtaking fashion he will become as famous as all the greats. Brigadier Gerard never won the Derby but is remembered as perhaps the top miler/10f of all time. Can Frankel emulate him? If he runs like this again, the Americans will love him and will be clamouring to see him in the Breeders Cup.