World Rugby Rankings

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:



Saturday, March 18

Scotland v Italy 12:30 PM -- BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If sco win by more than 15 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If result is a draw 1.000 81.18 72.17 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 80.18 73.17 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 79.18 74.17 No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v Wales 2:45 PM -- Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.795 82.00 81.36 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 1.193 82.40 80.97 Yes
If result is a draw 0.205 81.00 82.36 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.205 80.00 83.36 No
If wal win by more than 15 1.807 79.40 83.97 No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
 

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v England 5:00 PM -- Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points 1.484 84.66 89.54 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.226 85.41 88.79 No
If result is a draw 0.484 83.66 90.54 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.516 82.66 91.54 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.774 82.41 91.79 No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)



Original thread:
https://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

Thanks for that bit more detail, poisson.

In actual fact Ireland can get away with losing one of their games and still go ahead of England on last day with a >15pts win - provided they go into the game with a ranking difference of 5.5 pts or less

Where’s Portnoy with his official updates? This young pretender has dodgy maths! Check out the online calculator if you’re not sure poison.

Also, wow, didn’t realise England were so ahead of the other NH sides.

22 winning games on the trot, Cyril. You didn't realise?

Pity about the 23rd

Fiji above France. Shocking

lostinwales wrote:Fiji above France. Shocking

Nothing to see here. Great away win for Ireland

Current points (apologies for order but that was the starting order before last weekend matches
ENGLAND 90.87
IRELAND 86.86
SCOTLAND 82.76
WALES 83.43
FRANCE 77.62
ITALY 71.25

Round 2. Ireland beat Italy, England beat Wales – no change in eithers ranking points as >10 pts  difference. Lets presume Scotland win as that then gives them a better points score for next round.
Round 3 Ireland beat Wales, England beat Scotland (and lets say France beat Italy). Ireland pick up 0.36 pts, England pick up 0.51 pts (England away from home so do better out of differential)
Round 4 Ireland beat Scotland, England beat France –(and Wales beat Italy)  England – no change as France have too few points. Ireland get 0.22 pts.
SO here is table of points changes  over the first 4 rounds

	start	rd1	rd2	rd3	rd4
ENGLAND	90.87	90.87	90.87	91.38	91.38
IRELAND	86.39	86.86	86.86	87.22	87.44
SCOTLAND	84.11	82.76	82.94	82.43	82.21
WALES	82.08	83.43	83.43	83.08	83.08
FRANCE	78.09	77.62	77.43	77.52	77.52
ITALY	71.25	71.25	71.25	71.17	71.17

Now  if Ireland beat England by 15 pts or less – calculated ranking points are England 89.68 Ireland 89.13. However if Ireland beat England by more than 15 points – calculated ranking points are England 88.84, Ireland 89.98.
Have checked last figures with online calculator - but they are identical to the figures I get with my spreadsheet calculations

Using algebra (I think) I have calculated that Ireland go ahead of England if they are within 5.57 ranking points at the time of their game and they beat England by more than 15pts. They would need to get to within 3.25 pts to go ahead of them with a lesser win - which they can't achieve with maximum wins in all their other matches up to that point.
For anyone who wants to know the calculation is below

Algebra:

poissonrouge wrote:Using algebra (I think) I have calculated that Ireland go ahead of England if they are within 5.57 ranking points at the time of their game and they beat England by more than 15pts. They would need to get to within 3.25 pts to go ahead of them with a lesser win - which they can't achieve with maximum wins in all their other matches up to that point.
For anyone who wants to know the calculation is below

Nope - it doesn't work that way. The maximum you can lose or gain from a game is 3.0 points if the rating difference before the game is 10 and the lower ranked team wins by more than 15 (that can double to 6.0 points at the RWC finals - but not for the 6N). If two teams are equally ranked it's 1.5 outside of the RWC, and each 1 point difference in ranking (allowing for the home adjustment) is an additional 0.15 points at stake.

Ireland can overtake England with a straight win if they are 1.44 or fewer points behind, or with a 15 point win up to 2.29.

World Rugby Rankings Explained

The current gap is 4.01 points. England can't win points from Wales, only lose them (home advantage). Will be able to get something by winning in Edinburgh; and may or may not be able to get something by winning in Paris. If they lose all their matches, they would probably lose about 4 points in total; winning them all is probably worth a little over half a point.

Ireland can't get points off Italy, can get a bit of a point off Wales, and a bit less off Scotland.

If England have a total collapse, Ireland could already be ahead by the last weekend. If both sides go in unbeaten, then Ireland can close the gap but not overtake England.

poorfour wrote:Nope - it doesn't work that way. The maximum you can lose or gain from a game is 3.0 points

The maximum you can gain or lose is 3 points. That is if there is a maximum difference between ranking points. If there was a maximum difference between the two then if Ireland beat England by more than 15 points - Ireland gain 3 points and England lose 3 points. So there is a 6 point swing.

If two teams are equally ranked it's 1.5 outside of the RWC, and each 1 point difference in ranking (allowing for the home adjustment) is an additional 0.15 points at stake.

So if 2 teams are equally ranked its 1.5 points each and an additional 0.15 points each
So you suggest Ireland need to be within 2.29 points. If they are within 3 points - thats 6 points in the calculation (3 plus 3 for England home advantage) that comes to 1.5 plus 6 times 0.15  which is 2.4 points. So subtract 2.4 from England and add 2.4 to Ireland. Ireland are now 1.8 points ahead of England (started 3 points behind have gained a relative 4.8 points)
The actual calculation of the points difference required is given in the spoiler in my last post - it comes to 3.25 for a plain win and 5.57 for a big win.
If you still don't believe me - put the figures into this link On line calculator  as listed at the start of the thread. It has a column for "Will Away overtake Home" and it comes up with Yes in red

ah yes - had forgotten that it cuts both ways. There's a lot at stake in that game, then.

do scotland get good points for beating England?

The factoring is at the bottom of the article:

http://www.punditarena.com/rugby/gbrennan/latest-world-rankings-confirms-england-as-the-biggest-losers-following-six-nations-defeat/

Ta
I had a play with the calculator and Scotland will go back up to 5th I think with 84.4 pts

Absolutely correct. Ranking points as of now are

NEW ZEALAND	93.99
ENGLAND	89.38
IRELAND	87.22
AUSTRALIA	85.49
SCOTLAND	84.43
SOUTH AFRICA	83.81
WALES	83.08
ARGENTINA	78.22
FIJI	77.93
FRANCE	77.56

Italy drop a small amount (0.12) but no change in position

(apologies to fly - he has posted a link to an article saying this very thing - I just hadn't clicked on it so apologies for repetition)

And if the next time round Scotland repeat their success, they will jump to 3rd. And if Scotland could beat Ireland by more than 15 and England lose to France by more than 15 - Scotland would jump to 2nd!
There's a dream for the Scottish fans.
However if Ireland win and England lose - Ireland go to 2nd. And Scotland stay in 5th.

Yes indeed! Here's some of the hypothetical scenarios played out...






Sent from Topic'it App

If you want any more scenarios played out give us a shout!

Sent from Topic'it App

Here's some potential scenarios from this weekend and their ranking implications.













Sent from Topic'it App

Ireland move to 2nd place in world rankings
My estimation made above didn't reckon on Scotland losing by more than 15 points - hence they drop a place
Table as of Monday (unless Wales loses to Italy)

NEW ZEALAND	93.99
IRELAND	87.84
ENGLAND	87.50
AUSTRALIA	85.49
SOUTH AFRICA	83.81
SCOTLAND	83.80
WALES	83.08
FRANCE	79.44
ARGENTINA	78.22
FIJI	77.93

Yup! But whoever wins in Twickenham next weekend will be number 2.

No change in ranking for top 4- just points
Ireland now within 5 points of NZ
England nearly 3pts behind that and only 0.74 clear of Australia
Scotland move back past South Africa

NEW ZEALAND	93.99
IRELAND	89.11
ENGLAND	86.23
AUSTRALIA	85.49
SCOTLAND	83.83
SOUTH AFRICA	83.81
WALES	83.41
FRANCE	79.10
ARGENTINA	78.22
FIJI	77.93

you have scotland behind SA but on more points?

Sorry - put the points into last weeks table - scotland move up one position at SA's expense. Points are right order wrong - Scotland gained three hundredths, but were only one hundredth behind SA.
Have corrected above post

Thanks - it makes better reading for Scotland.

Cyril wrote:There's a heck of a lot more to come from England too. We're scoring plenty of tries and Jones hasn't really started on the backs yet

Both England and Ireland should have plenty to look forward to

Looking at the table I'd say it looks about right in terms of where the teams are.

NZ are going to walk to another world cup victory at this point as I can't see Ireland maintain their form away from home in humid conditions.

So what are the rankings after this weekend ?

Rankings changes as of last weekend

Team	04/06/2018	11/06/2018
NEW ZEALAND	93.99	93.99
IRELAND	89.11	88.05
AUSTRALIA	85.49	86.56
ENGLAND	86.23	85.19
WALES	84.45	85.13
SCOTLAND	83.83	83.83
SOUTH AFRICA	82.77	83.81
FRANCE	79.1	79.10
FIJI	77.93	77.93

England pipped for 3rd place by Australia, and narrowly missed dropping to 5th. Wales hard on heels of England and SA hard on heels of Scotland
If the results from the weekend are repeated for the next 2 weekends (ok Wales only have one more game v Argentina) then pecking order is NZ. AUS, IRE, WAL, SA,  SCO, ENG, FRA.

A lot to play for this weekend.
Can England get back up the rankings? Or how low can they go?
What about Ireland and Wales - or Australia and South Africa?
I calculated on 2 hypothetical scenarios at opposite ends of spectrum - either Australia, England and Argentina all won by more than 15pts or all lost by more than 15 pts.

England could creep back to 3rd if they win massively and Ireland lose massively - in which case Australia and England both pass Ireland. Wales would drop back below Scotland and Argentina could pass France with a big win.
However if England Australia and Argentina all lose heavily - Wales get to third, SA get 4th, Australia are 5th England 6th and scotland drop to 7th

Still waiting on Wales result - if they win they move to 3rd, (with Australia, South Africa, England and Scotland 4th 5th 6th and 7th) but if they lose they drop to 7th (with Australia, South Africa, England and Scotland above them in that order). NZ and Ireland unchanged at the top.

Indeed! Here is how they will look come Monday...

It's very close in the middle, just over 2 points separating 3-7, so there's plenty of scope for movement. Give me a shout if you want any scenarios run

Yeah we aren’t 3rd best in the world for sure. The rankings had us above Arg first hand and as we beat them fairly convincivly, twice, they’re a little accurate in that regard. At the time SA and Scotland were ranked above us I think, and I don’t feel that they were better than us at the time and right now.

rugby4cast wrote:It's very close in the middle, just over 2 points separating 3-7, so there's plenty of scope for movement. Give me a shout if you want any scenarios run

Fortunately for England who were staring a drop to 7th if they lost next week, there are now over 4 pts separating positions 3 and 7 - Scotland losing to US meant a maximum ranking point drop of 2 points for them. So England can't now drop to 7th regardless of next weeks results.

Okay..here's a Kweskin then.

Let's say the French get things right and get 15 men on the field like a real team for a change. Let's say the All Blacks have a big off day (they won't ) But to continue the dream for a little while, let's say the French marmalise New Zealand in the final test. Beat them by more than 15 points.

Let's say Ireland beat Australia by roughly the same margin. How far off would Ireland be from Number One then? And then we could wait for one more beating for the ABs by either Australia, South Africa or Argentina in the next few months and we be...................... *gasp* Number One side in the world leading into the Autumn series????

Is that possible?

*gulp*

NO!!!!! Where's our Underdog status gone?? Gone to the feckin' dogs! The IRFU are ruining our culture!

IN answer to your scenario SecretFly -
New Zealand lose to France by more than 15pts - they lose 3 full points and drop to 90.99 ranking points
Ireland beat Australia by more than 15 pts - they gain 1.38 pts and climb to a ranking score of 90.58.
So Ireland would be just over 0.4 ranking points behind NZ - any further loss by NZ would mean they drop below Ireland
So it is eminently possible that Ireland could get to number 1 if NZ slip up

And even if NZ remain above Ireland over the summer - then if Ireland can be within 3 points of them by the time they play them in the autumn, they can overtake them by beating them by more than 15 points - or within 1.75 points for a lesser win

All change after the weekend.
Home losses for Australia and NZ means a 2 point loss for both and a 2pt gain for Argentina and the Boks.
Current rankings will be as follows (according to my sums which are usually pretty correct)

NEW ZEALAND	92.52
IRELAND	90.12
WALES	85.94
ENGLAND	85.68
SOUTH AFRICA	83.35
SCOTLAND	83.02
AUSTRALIA	82.45
FRANCE	79.1
ARGENTINA	79.02
FIJI	76.54

Ouch!

Thanks Mrs P.

poissonrouge is Mrs P?

intriguing

Anyway, delighted to see we've now risen from 2nd to Almost 1st!!! What a jump!

We'll never make it to first of course, even for a week (says he trying not to jinx us )

Normal service will be resumed when SA and ABs clash again

Wales in 3rd. Hmmmmm. It doesn't feel like we should be, but as others constantly remind us - "the rankings don't lie"!

Only 5 points between Wales and Ireland. Merely an unconverted try

SecretFly wrote:poissonrouge is Mrs P?

intriguing

I'm pretty sure so.

We go way back to earlier in the decade or maybe even a touch earlier... when I was 'working' under my Linebreaker alias.

Yeah, I remember the Linebreaker name. A lot of us go back to earlier in the decade. Where the hell does time go? First it walks in the opposite direction to you and then it starts running!

The Oracle wrote:Wales in 3rd.  Hmmmmm.  It doesn't feel like we should be, but as others constantly remind us - "the rankings don't lie"!

Only 5 points between Wales and Ireland.  Merely an unconverted try

Now that you mentioned that and this is not the place for it I know, but why the hell not - the rankings page is so quiet, it needs controversy.

No, I was thinking about the worth of a try not too long ago and I really do (joking aside) think it's now demonstrably undervalued.  A player can pull off a sensational solo try (like Jordan Williams for the Dragons at the weekend) and it only takes two so-so penalties and some casual kicking to get the other team almost back on terms - just the one point behind.  It's like that classic tale Mohammed Ali told when he laughed at old horror movies, where the heroes have to run at high speed to escape the monster who no matter how slow it plods is always just right behind the sprinters in every shot.

I think a try should get an extra point.... 6   -   plus the conversion = 8 The campaign starts here!

SecretFly wrote:

The Oracle wrote:Wales in 3rd.  Hmmmmm.  It doesn't feel like we should be, but as others constantly remind us - "the rankings don't lie"!

Only 5 points between Wales and Ireland.  Merely an unconverted try

Now that you mentioned that and this is not the place for it I know, but why the hell not - the rankings page is so quiet, it needs controversy.

No, I was thinking about the worth of a try not too long ago and I really do (joking aside) think it's now demonstrably undervalued.  A player can pull off a sensational solo try (like Jordan Williams for the Dragons at the weekend) and it only takes two so-so penalties and some casual kicking to get the other team almost back on terms - just the one point behind.  It's like that classic tale Mohammed Ali told when he laughed at old horror movies, where the heroes have to run at high speed to escape the monster who no matter how slow it plods is always just right behind the sprinters in every shot.

I think a try should get an extra point.... 6   -   plus the conversion = 8  The campaign starts here!

I agree. Especially when there are such easy 3 pointers available. It seems so difficult sometimes to score a try. Teams camped out on the try line hammering away for ages and often getting nothing. Yet run into your own man or cross in front of him and gift the oppo 3 points! Madness. Not sure penalties should be downgraded though. Imagine the carry on if some offences only carried a 1 point penalty

Pal Joey wrote:

SecretFly wrote:poissonrouge is Mrs P?

intriguing

I'm pretty sure so.

We go way back to earlier in the decade or maybe even a touch earlier... when I was 'working' under my Linebreaker alias.

Actually poissonrouge is Mr P - Mrs P's worse half! Mrs P created her own account so my dubious comments couldn't be blamed on her

Joey got a lot of explaining to do! He goes back decades with a man he thought was a woman?

Let's all re-read ten years of inter-lingo to have a good laugh

SecretFly wrote:Anyway, delighted to see we've now risen from 2nd to Almost 1st!!! What a jump!

We'll never make it to first of course, even for a week (says he trying not to jinx us )

Normal service will be resumed when SA and ABs clash again

The All Blacks "problem" is they are so far ahead of South Africa that even if they beat them when they play them again - they can only reclaim less than half a ranking point.
Next round of matches -
If Argentina lose - then no change in ranking points (if Argentina win - ABs fall to within half a point of Ireland and Argentina rise above France)
Winner of Australia/Boks is 5th the other is 7th.

Following round combinations depend on where teams are starting from obviously
Worst scenario for ABs - lose both matches (Pigs can fly if you throw them hard enough) - they drop to 2nd a point behind Ireland
Argentina - 2 wins - they could get to 7th (if Australia lose both)
Boks and Australie - as stated above winner between them goes to 5th other goes to 7th.
If SA has beaten Australia - then they stay in 5th regardless of win or lose against ABs, and Australia stay in 7th regardless of outcome against Argentina
If Australia has beaten Boks - then a win for the Boks puts them back to 5th, regardless of Australia/Argentina result - but if Australia win that one they get 6th and Scotland drop to 7th. (Boks stay 7th if they lose to ABs)

So I trust you are all suitably confused by that posting!