A non-WUM analysis of England and Wales - this week and next

Wales vs Scotland

Penalties was the order of the day.

Wales looked dominant for the first 20 minutes, but failed to capitalise. 3 out of character misses by Halfpenny, while Laidlaw nailed everything couldn't help but look like a repeat of the last game hosted at Murrayfield. Luckily, North's break and Hibbard's try settled Wales down.

It was very much a forward effort for Wales, and although the game was in the balance for 60 minutes, the Welsh forwards really stood up in the second half and gave 1/2p enough penalty chances to keep Scotland at bay. Warburton was central to the second half forwards effort, alongside the recalled AWJ.

It wasn't a classic, and people have slated Wales for the performance, but the fact is, a 10pt win away from home is a good achievement and winning a tight forwards orientated game is not what Wales have been good at until recently.

Stand out players : Sam Warburton, AWJ, Adam Jones, Mike Phillips, Greg Laidlaw, Duncan Weir
Need to improve : Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Matt Scott, Tim Visser


England vs Italy

People seemed to be getting carried away with GS talk and most pundits were overlooking Italy, this was a huge mistake and one that perhaps the players fell into.

England were lucky to escape Italy with a win last year, and Italy gave everyone a good reminder at the start of this 6Ns. The difference is, Italy were playing away from home - traditionally, they don't travel well, but it was the same 23 players on the pitch - and when they were given a sniff of an upset they raised their game.

England came out of the blocks looking like a Grand Slam side, making easy ground through the Italian midfield, Italy looked more like the team that played Scotland for the first 10 minutes. However, a combination of some abysmal English finishing and what was an excellent scramble defence denied England a try.

England changed how they were playing in the first half, they were clearly looking to score tries, but when that didn't work, they took the points on offer and credit too them.

Without a knockout blow in the first half, it was always going to be a close second. Italy's try swung momentum in their favour - and they were the side that beat France again, offloading and holding onto possession well. England did well to keep the Italian's out in the last 20, and that will serve them in good stead to face Wales.

In the end, Italy will be disappointed, and England glad to have escaped with a win - but next week will be a different game

Standouts : Chris Robshaw, Courtney Lawes, Sergio Parisse, Allesandro Zanni, Luke McLean, Venditt
Need to improve : Chris Ashton, Alex Goode, Mike Brown, Brad Barritt

...........................................

Wales vs England

I don't think anyone can really call this game either way very accurately, here's my breakdown on where the game will be won.

Scrum
Lions showdown time, between Adam and Cole for the starting THP shirt, but also between Youngs and Hibbard for a place in the 23.

The England scrum looked dominant in the first scrum against Italy, but didn't manage to keep it at that level, with penalties either way. Wales took apart Italy in Rome, but were equally guilty of conceding penalties in the scrum at times.

Wales had the hit over the Scottish this week, and seem to have focused on their scrum technique since the shambles on the terrible turf in France. Wales will be looking to use the scrum as a weapon, if it becomes a lottery or neither team are able to dominate it will probably suit England well as they are likely to have the stronger lineout.

Defence
Wales have now gone 3 and a half games without conceding a try, their defence has been very solid since the Ireland game and is probably the strongest in the competition.

There are areas for England to expose - chips in behind the defence may work well if they avoid Halfpenny, equally they may get something out of their driving game from lineouts, driving around the rucks may not prove effecting though with Mike Phillips sweeping back.

England's forward effort in defence was excellent in the closing 20 minutes in Twickernam, and England haven't looked like conceding tries in the tight.

However, the are big question marks in the backs defence - all of the tries England have conceded this tournament have gone from poor defending out wide away from their defensive midfield backs. Neither Ashton, Brown or Goode had poor games against Italy and will need to improve their defence a lot before they face the Welsh wingers and outside centre. Goode and Ashton in particular have some dire missed tackle stats, not what you want for your last line.

Wales have the better all-round defence, but if it becomes a forward game with the ball not reaching the wide spaces on the wings, the tight 5 of England could give them the edge defensively and frustrate the Welsh


Discipline
This is where the game will be won IMO. Wales conceded 12 penalties on Saturday - the first time they have gotten into double figures this campaign. Meanwhile, England showed some excellent discipline out in Ireland and had a low penalty count this weekend aswell.

The referee will be crucial, Walsh did a good job this weekend and hopefully won't ruin the game next week.

England have the better discipline, but a lot will depend on how the Welsh backrow perform - if the expected Tipuric/Warburton partnership perform well, then Wales may be able to force England into giving away penalties and precious points. Having an accurate kicker from halfway will also benefit Wales in this area.


Mental preparation

This could be a game changer.

If Wales go in with the mindset that there is everything to win, and England that they have the Grandslam to lose - then the game could swing in Wales' favour.

England will have the pressure on them, meanwhile most of the Welsh players have the experience of Grandslam winning games and WC knockout games.

Wales have the most to gain and the least to lose, if England don't come with the right attitude then we could see a repeat of the disheartened performance we saw in Dublin 2 years ago.

The partisan crowd in Cardiff will get on England's back if they fail to start well.



................

My head can't call it either way, but my heart say's that Wales will save the best for last and steal the championship!

Good article,enjoyed reading it.

I see a similar game to last years at Twickenham - there's nothing in it and it will be 1 lapse or 1 piece of brilliance that wins it. My monies on the lapse - from whom; I can't say

Well of ocurse if you criticise England at all at this point then you must be a WUM.

They massively effed up...I thought there were too many changes and they took Italy for granted and expected 5 tries etc.

Point is this will have shaken them up and we will see if their composure is real or not. Wales will be buoyed by their performance but I hope they will go out with their own gameplan. England may well benefit more from this than a big win, but there is now uncertainty in selection and holes are showing....Lawes, Ashton, Care etc were poor.

Good post Wales606! I know all signs point towards a Welsh victory in a way, but I just think England will crank it up a notch and today they got caught with their pants down a bit, as you say.

However, you make a good point on the fact that Wales have the experience of winning a grandslam last year and the home advantage could be key.

Tough one to call.

By the way, I'm a little confused by how Wales only need 8 points to win. Are the point difference not England 43, Wales 29? I make that as a 14 point diference, not 7. Am I being dumb here or am I just not reading stats properly?

sorry, I'm an idiot just figured it out. england obviously lose points if wales gain points over them, hence them only needing 8 points. Time for bed I think

Wales need to win by 7 - as long as England don't score more than 2 tries more than them on Saturday. Win by 7 and the plus points are equal, and then the decider is tries.

I hope this is right but it's as I understand it.

The major factor may be injuries. The English ones sound significant if they keep the guys out of the match next Sat as no time to bed in newcomers. Wales to my mind have had to find replacements as they have gone along over the last year, and are more experienced, so that may decide it.

I think it could come down to the packs because both scrums have been solid and both line outs ok plus the back lines are not firing can't wait really close call

I did`nt see the England game so cannot comment on it,only the Wales game
which was dire to watch.
The match really revolved around territory and pressure there,everytime they
got into the 22metre area or just outside PENALTY.
To say a 10 point away win is good is true,BUT with another 5 penalty kicks missed by both sides total.
The Scrum was a farce everytime it went down nearly Scotland were pinged for going early.
Wales line out was a mess,3 against the throw could cost you dear.
How much did Scotland miss when the big Blond player went off he was a big threat.
Scotland seemed afraid to try anything a kick to the corner may have been a better option on a couple of occassions.

Good analysis, wales606. The only thing I'd add is that you mention how poor the turf was at the Stade de France and how it affected the scrums - well I expect the pitch at the Millennium not to be much better, so even if one side gets the edge in the scrums, they won't necessarily gain a telling advantage from it.

Okay, I have one other thing to add: you mention England's back three as not the best defensively, without pointing out that Cuthbert and North can also be targeted in that area.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Good analysis, wales606. The only thing I'd add is that you mention how poor the turf was at the Stade de France and how it affected the scrums - well I expect the pitch at the Millennium not to be much better, so even if one side gets the edge in the scrums, they won't necessarily gain a telling advantage from it.

Okay, I have one other thing to add: you mention England's back three as not the best defensively, without pointing out that Cuthbert and North can also be targeted in that area.

Cuthbert's positioning can be poor, but North is not defensively weak at all. Cuthbert can tackle well, he just gets out of position occasionally - which is why Farrell's chip kicks could prove useful for England.

If I was sending out a side to play Wales, I'd have them chipping / putting grubbers in behind the Welsh defence. I'm genuinely surprised no one's really tried it. In two tournaments now I can only remember Owen Farrell in 2012 and Duncan Weir on Saturday doing it. Even if it doesn't lead to a score, it puts doubt in the minds of the midfield as they rush up and buys the opposition that extra split-second.

Cutherbert certainly had the better of Visser

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:If I was sending out a side to play Wales, I'd have them chipping / putting grubbers in behind the Welsh defence. I'm genuinely surprised no one's really tried it. In two tournaments now I can only remember Owen Farrell in 2012 and Duncan Weir on Saturday doing it. Even if it doesn't lead to a score, it puts doubt in the minds of the midfield as they rush up and buys the opposition that extra split-second.

I was worried about that too... luckily Biggar got to the ball

This is going to sound harsh to both sides, but if this weekends performance from both sides is anything to go by, this game will be awful and a nail in the coffin of a 6N that promised so much.

Wales gave away penalty after penalty, there's only so much you can blame Joubert, didn't look particularly great in attack, the rest has been covered. England slept walked through Italy with a dire performace and have back tracked from where we were 3-4 months ago. Hell, they've back tracked from where they were 6 weeks ago.

What i worry about more on the world stage though is that this fixture is truley epic, it really is. The favourites on the decline, the defenders after an awful year fight their way back to a winner-takes-all showdown. Honestly, hollywood couldn't make a better script. Yet, all i can realistically forsee is 2 sides playing the kind of negative rugby where they're afraid to lose, not playing to win. If that's the case, then regardless every fan loses and NH Rugby looks even further behind the SH.

Sorry for the pessimism, but this weekend was truley awful. The only side that went b4lls out to win, playing great rugby was Italy.

Very reasonable analysis wales606.

Fingers crossed Farrell Jr is available for the game.

Personally I think it will be a tough match for both sides. There wasn't really much in it last year and a lot of the games in the last few years have been pretty close affairs.

Advantage to Wales is that you have a more settled and experienced team. Particularly the back three.

I think England have looked disjointed in their last three games - no rhythm. Backrow balance just doesn't seem to be there.Set piece hasn't been functioning that well overall.

Though saying that would Warburton,Tipuric and Faletau with 2 7s be balanced?

I would be more worried about he loss of scrum power when replacing Ryan with Tipuric as opposed to the balance of the back row. We need that strong platform first and foremost

Really interesting looking at match stats.

England 1 line break vs Italy. Compare this to the 11 vs Scotland!

Wales made 1 line break vs Scotland. 5 vs Ireland.

Good analysis Wales606. Very fair. Definitely too tight to call, feeling very pessimistic today, hopefully i'll get more bullish as the week goes on!

It's another 50/50 but the ref is going to be key here at scrum time - Who is it and don't say Rollain or I'm off to buy a rope

It'll be Steve Walsh.

Good analysis. Thank you .

After the best first round of a 6Ns I can remember we have had the worst fourth, without a doubt. I have a suspicion that the Welsh scrum is very strong indeed and capable of taking us to pieces, but the turf and patchy form from all sides make the game as a whole very hard to call. It's all ifs and buts at the moment. But it seems to me that a lot of the 50/50s go Wales' way - I was massively impressed with the Warburton/Tipuric loose ball snaffling, for example - so I have Wales favourites with home advantage and a more experienced squad.

Oh and Walsh - much much better now he's off the sauce. I'm no longer bothered when he refs - quite the contrary in fact! (And there's something I didn't think I'd be saying a few years ago.

Steve Walsh - Mirror mirror on the wall who's the fairest of them all - Steve Welsh

Strange little point here, only 5/6 players from the England side that beat Italy have played at the MS before.

England arent a particularly experienced side, and if a few changes are made that are expected to be that could be less.

If Ashton & Goode defend like they did against Italy then i'd be looking to send the big guys out wide and away from the defensively sound english midfield.

Scrums will probably end up a non-entity due to the crap turf, which is a shame because wales actually have a decent scrum now. I suppose that's what happens when the stadium is whored out to the highest bidder, a pitch on pallets that is taken out and away for Rihanna, Speedway and 'Monster Trucks'.

Sam & Tips actually worked really well together and i think playing both on saturday is the way to go if RJ is out. Yes we'll miss his ball carrying but then with the backline we've got and AWJ & IE in the second row, the loss can be negated if they up their carries. In a close game, penalties will be key and having two 'turnover' flankers on the pitch could prove decisive.

You talk a lot of sense, gcBlues, especially about getting the ball wide early, but when was the last time we went wide without bashing up the middle a few times to 'earn the right'? It's dumb, rugby, especially as the opposition are expecting Roberts or North on the crash ball.

It's not rocket science, but you should attack the opposition's weakness, and as you say, that's out wide, not in midfield.

Thanks for a good post match analysis Wales606.
Wales favourites by a slight but distinct margin now. At home - confidence up - something to play for (the championship!) and have been improving.
England looking a little less good with each game.
The only upside is that after the Italian game they won't be complacent!

Scrum favours Wales - our lineout with Croft should be okay, but please can we have some wingers and put Brown to FB!

Nobbled, do you think Lancaster will change wingers now? Surely the time to try out someone new / different was at home against Italy rather than in Cardiff.

Good to see an article not written by an idiot, they seem to be out in force lately.

It should be real tense affair, I don't think the MS holds any real hold over the England team so it could be a couple points that decides it.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You talk a lot of sense, gcBlues, especially about getting the ball wide early, but when was the last time we went wide without bashing up the middle a few times to 'earn the right'? It's dumb, rugby, especially as the opposition are expecting Roberts or North on the crash ball.

It's not rocket science, but you should attack the opposition's weakness, and as you say, that's out wide, not in midfield.

+2

One review of the Italy/England match by the coaching staff should convince them that Cuthbert and North are almost certain to make metreage against what appears to be a distinctly tackle-shy English back three. Even if cover defence gets across (such is the modern game) we're guaranteed to get over the gainline, at the very least.

Howley unlikely to change tactics though - he'll bring them (and Roberts) down the middle, into traffic that's just as big and strong as they are. Four passes to the centres against Scotland? It won't be half that number against the English.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:You talk a lot of sense, gcBlues, especially about getting the ball wide early, but when was the last time we went wide without bashing up the middle a few times to 'earn the right'? It's dumb, rugby, especially as the opposition are expecting Roberts or North on the crash ball.

It's not rocket science, but you should attack the opposition's weakness, and as you say, that's out wide, not in midfield.

Indeed, too many 'systems' not enough heads up rugby

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Nobbled, do you think Lancaster will change wingers now? Surely the time to try out someone new / different was at home against Italy rather than in Cardiff.

Agreed, that would have been better, however as the rest of the team had a bad day at the office it would have given a false impression of their relative merits I suppose.

And no, I don't think Lancaster will, though I wish he would at least replace Ashton.

Indeed, too many 'systems' not enough heads up rugby

I would like to see JD2 and North etc attack the outside shoulder. Use the forwards to draw the defenders not Roberts. He's far more effective running a dummy line.

I can't actually believe it's going to come down to the last game, after the Irish game and with Gatland on his Lions jolly I really didn't think we would be in this position. I think the packs will cancel each other out. England in the AI and first 2 6N games were generation very quick ball and very dynamic at the breakdown. They were tested against France and didn't seem to be as effective against Italy.

oohhhhhhh.....it's going to be nail biting.

Luckless Pedestrian wrote:Good analysis, wales606. The only thing I'd add is that you mention how poor the turf was at the Stade de France and how it affected the scrums - well I expect the pitch at the Millennium not to be much better, so even if one side gets the edge in the scrums, they won't necessarily gain a telling advantage from it.

Okay, I have one other thing to add: you mention England's back three as not the best defensively, without pointing out that Cuthbert and North can also be targeted in that area.

I don't think its fair to put North and Cuthbert in the same boat as Goode and Ashton. Goode is just basically a house. His front on tackling makes Ashton look like Jonny. He should be dropped like a snob, and while Brown also experienced lapses I think that was down to positioning, which given he is not a wing may excuse somewhat. Brown should go to fullback Goode should be demoted to England ladies (the under 20's might be a bit rough for him). Ashton, well he tackles adequately from behind but seems to concerned with his looks (what!! buy the man a mirror) to bother with that nasty head on stuff. If we get the ball wide we will have an absolute field day, unfortunately that is unlikely to happen.

On the plus side Lancaster will announce an unchanged side and we will at least get the chance to run at these comedy tacklers even if it happens by accident rather than design.

I can't see Wales getting the ball out wide - or England tbh!

Both sides seem locked into a bash it up the middle kind of game, although England tried to go wide vs Italy without going forward first and look what that got them.

It really is close this one. My guess is the side that bosses the breakdown wins the match. That will be a really interesting competition, with Tipuric and Warburton, two great fetchers against the English tactic of driving right over the breakdown to secure quick ball which makes a 7's life very difficult.

I think English speed to the breakdown will be critical to shut out Wales' fetchers.

If R Jones is out for the England game (a big loss), Wales need to start with a physical 6 such as Coombes or better still J King with Tipuric on the bench. When Tipuric came on last Sat the Scottish pack were already beaten also their 6 was a waste of space, the England back row will be stronger and streetwise. Looking forward to the game. Reading the express they claim England want the roof closed, I say good on them trying to make a game of it.

Reading the express they claim England want the roof closed, I say good on them trying to make a game of it.

With the way Wales are playing at the moment we would be better off having it open!

I must be the only one who dont think Browns been bad.

Whilst his positioning might be slightly out (understandable and i would play him at FB) he has done well in the games. He's made most of his tackles...carried well, got stuck in at rucks etc....

Anyway regardless of that...the biggest influence on the whole game next week is if Toby Flood plays or not. If he does we will lose. If Farrell plays we will be far better...and i never thought i see the day i backed Farrell on the int stage...shows he is improving...

Flood gives me absolutely NO confidence whatsoever....

Farrell is fit, Morgan isnt. Parling, Lauchbury and Lawes are all question marks

I think we need a major carrier at 8...i think if morgan is not fit then it needs to be Vunipola.
Launchbury and Parling would be big loses and Lawes showed that he is starting to develope that lineout ability that could make him a real cquality second row.
But if we were to lose all 3 ...hhmm...Slater?, Kitchener? , Kruis? Excellent young players...but coming in to the white hot cauldren in Cardiff in a GS decider? Big ask. Probably be Deacon.

wales606 wrote:Farrell is fit, Morgan isnt. Parling, Lauchbury and Lawes are all question marks

Three Locks out is pretty difficult injury list to recover from. England's fans and pundits have all pointed out their lack of a number eight and i think many were seriously hoping to have a fit and on form Morgan available.

Farrell will make a difference to the goal kicking but Flood is the better player to get their backline moving. I think he needs to be with his club partner Youngs rather than Danny Care, who was no where near his best yesterday.

Brown must be on the pitch wherever. He is such a good all-round footballer. Farrell is nailed on. We missed his field kicks for position. Flood had no clue as to how to exit England from their own half against Italy.

Very sad Morgan is not fit. We need a really good ball carrying No8. If Billy V is ready he should start.

Looking forward to this one immensely.

Problem with England against Italy was the foundations of the game weren't good enough. I think we take for granted how well Farrell does the basics as well as Youngs also. This allows us to play an offloading game without it looking as loose at times on Sunday (esp. 2nd half) and sometimes so lateral. With Farrell and Youngs back I expect England to look far more composed.

Some great analysis Wales606

I think this is one of the most even (on paper) contests in many a long while, well done Wales on winning last three away games on the trot, whilst England have had their "off game" now, I think Lancaster will have given them the "toaster as well as the hairdryer" in the dressing room on Sunday.

Close Encounters

Davies v Tualagi - Ding Dong Round Two or is that Three

Biggar v Farrell - Pivotal role

Jones v Coles - Lions decider?

Warburton v Robshaw - Mouth watering, after Warbs MOM and Robshaws Lions place & captaincy credentials at stake

Faletau v Vunipola - Cousins in arms


Key Men (in my opinion)

Wales - Jon "Foxy" Davies
England - Owen "Jnr" Farrell

Who will win?........... Crikey too close to call

flyhalffactory wrote:Some great analysis Wales606

I think this is one of the most even (on paper) contests in many a long while, well done Wales on winning last three away games on the trot, whilst England have had their "off game" now, I think Lancaster will have given them the "toaster as well as the hairdryer" in the dressing room on Sunday.

Close Encounters

Davies v Tualagi - Ding Dong Round Two or is that Three

Biggar v Farrell - Pivotal role

Jones v Coles - Lions decider?

Warburton v Robshaw - Mouth watering, after Warbs MOM and Robshaws Lions place & captaincy credentions at stake

Faletau v Vunipola - Cousins in arms


Key Men (in my opinion)

Wales - Jon "Foxy" Davies
England - Owen "Jnr" Farrell

Who will win?........... Crikey too close to call

I agree FHF.

Mouth watering hardly does it justice.

A massive compliment to the Welsh Squad and Coaches to get the team back from pre-tournament despair to having a very good chance of holding on to the championship.

It has been 6 years since a team last won back to back tournements

England in '11 are the only team in those 6 years not to win a GS

Also, no England team has ever gone to Cardiff to win a Grandslam in the history of the 5/6Ns

Wales 606....

Historys there to be changed though is it not?

England might not be flash or flamboyant...but they are effective, efficient and ill agree at times boringly defensive...but we are still 4 & 0...so i wouldnt be so quick to underestimate us.

I cant see us playing as badly as we did v Italy...and i also think Italy havent been given enough credit for just getting stuck in, and really having a go.

One thing for sure it will be a cracker (hopefully) and i also hope this board doesnt get out of hand after it...or ill be taking a sabatical from it...

Come on guys, what's happening to the 606V2 rugby board? Good natured and level headed discussion seems to have broken out and between the Welsh and English.

I thought the expectations for England were that all three 2nd rowers are expected to recover in time - even if one of them doesn't we should be OK, but if we are short of 2 or 3 then it seriously weakens us (where next? Botha and Deacon? Wouldn't want to bring in guys with no experience to a GS match and championship decider).

Agree with most of the commenta about Brown - he's been very solid overall since moving to the wing but has on occasion been exploited positionally. He is though the one guy in our back 3 I don't worry about if it comes to a one on one tackle against North or Cuthbert.

Lets just hope that the game lives up to our hopes, and that the RFU haven't had another case of premature celebration...

What has happened before has little/no reflection on this forthcoming game.... in terms of 2011, its a different side, out of the 15 players who started the final match in Dublin and I expect at best only 4 to start on Saturday (Ashton, Youngs, Cole and Wood).

If you want better foresight into this weekends match then stating statistics such as above you might as well look at your stars in the newspapers.

What will determine the outcome of the match; the players themselves. Some will stand up, some won't. Luck has little to do with it.... bar the Scotland Ireland game in this years 6N I can't remember the last time a team won when they were completely outplayed and deserved to lose.

This is the last time the Welsh players can put their hands up for Lions selection given they have no teams in the HC left. To say all the pressure is on England is obtuse.