A non-WUM analysis of England and Wales - this week and next

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Wales vs Scotland

Penalties was the order of the day.

Wales looked dominant for the first 20 minutes, but failed to capitalise. 3 out of character misses by Halfpenny, while Laidlaw nailed everything couldn't help but look like a repeat of the last game hosted at Murrayfield. Luckily, North's break and Hibbard's try settled Wales down.

It was very much a forward effort for Wales, and although the game was in the balance for 60 minutes, the Welsh forwards really stood up in the second half and gave 1/2p enough penalty chances to keep Scotland at bay. Warburton was central to the second half forwards effort, alongside the recalled AWJ.

It wasn't a classic, and people have slated Wales for the performance, but the fact is, a 10pt win away from home is a good achievement and winning a tight forwards orientated game is not what Wales have been good at until recently.

Stand out players : Sam Warburton, AWJ, Adam Jones, Mike Phillips, Greg Laidlaw, Duncan Weir
Need to improve : Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Matt Scott, Tim Visser


England vs Italy

People seemed to be getting carried away with GS talk and most pundits were overlooking Italy, this was a huge mistake and one that perhaps the players fell into.

England were lucky to escape Italy with a win last year, and Italy gave everyone a good reminder at the start of this 6Ns. The difference is, Italy were playing away from home - traditionally, they don't travel well, but it was the same 23 players on the pitch - and when they were given a sniff of an upset they raised their game.

England came out of the blocks looking like a Grand Slam side, making easy ground through the Italian midfield, Italy looked more like the team that played Scotland for the first 10 minutes. However, a combination of some abysmal English finishing and what was an excellent scramble defence denied England a try.

England changed how they were playing in the first half, they were clearly looking to score tries, but when that didn't work, they took the points on offer and credit too them.

Without a knockout blow in the first half, it was always going to be a close second. Italy's try swung momentum in their favour - and they were the side that beat France again, offloading and holding onto possession well. England did well to keep the Italian's out in the last 20, and that will serve them in good stead to face Wales.

In the end, Italy will be disappointed, and England glad to have escaped with a win - but next week will be a different game

Standouts : Chris Robshaw, Courtney Lawes, Sergio Parisse, Allesandro Zanni, Luke McLean, Venditt
Need to improve : Chris Ashton, Alex Goode, Mike Brown, Brad Barritt

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Wales vs England

I don't think anyone can really call this game either way very accurately, here's my breakdown on where the game will be won.

Scrum
Lions showdown time, between Adam and Cole for the starting THP shirt, but also between Youngs and Hibbard for a place in the 23.

The England scrum looked dominant in the first scrum against Italy, but didn't manage to keep it at that level, with penalties either way. Wales took apart Italy in Rome, but were equally guilty of conceding penalties in the scrum at times.

Wales had the hit over the Scottish this week, and seem to have focused on their scrum technique since the shambles on the terrible turf in France. Wales will be looking to use the scrum as a weapon, if it becomes a lottery or neither team are able to dominate it will probably suit England well as they are likely to have the stronger lineout.

Defence
Wales have now gone 3 and a half games without conceding a try, their defence has been very solid since the Ireland game and is probably the strongest in the competition.

There are areas for England to expose - chips in behind the defence may work well if they avoid Halfpenny, equally they may get something out of their driving game from lineouts, driving around the rucks may not prove effecting though with Mike Phillips sweeping back.

England's forward effort in defence was excellent in the closing 20 minutes in Twickernam, and England haven't looked like conceding tries in the tight.

However, the are big question marks in the backs defence - all of the tries England have conceded this tournament have gone from poor defending out wide away from their defensive midfield backs. Neither Ashton, Brown or Goode had poor games against Italy and will need to improve their defence a lot before they face the Welsh wingers and outside centre. Goode and Ashton in particular have some dire missed tackle stats, not what you want for your last line.

Wales have the better all-round defence, but if it becomes a forward game with the ball not reaching the wide spaces on the wings, the tight 5 of England could give them the edge defensively and frustrate the Welsh


Discipline
This is where the game will be won IMO. Wales conceded 12 penalties on Saturday - the first time they have gotten into double figures this campaign. Meanwhile, England showed some excellent discipline out in Ireland and had a low penalty count this weekend aswell.

The referee will be crucial, Walsh did a good job this weekend and hopefully won't ruin the game next week.

England have the better discipline, but a lot will depend on how the Welsh backrow perform - if the expected Tipuric/Warburton partnership perform well, then Wales may be able to force England into giving away penalties and precious points. Having an accurate kicker from halfway will also benefit Wales in this area.


Mental preparation

This could be a game changer.

If Wales go in with the mindset that there is everything to win, and England that they have the Grandslam to lose - then the game could swing in Wales' favour.

England will have the pressure on them, meanwhile most of the Welsh players have the experience of Grandslam winning games and WC knockout games.

Wales have the most to gain and the least to lose, if England don't come with the right attitude then we could see a repeat of the disheartened performance we saw in Dublin 2 years ago.

The partisan crowd in Cardiff will get on England's back if they fail to start well.



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My head can't call it either way, but my heart say's that Wales will save the best for last and steal the championship!

What will determine the outcome of the match; the players themselves. Some will stand up, some won't.

In a nutshell mate...

I don't think that 2011 will have any bearing - just quoting some interesting stats from an ESPN article

For example, teams playing away to win a GS have lost more often that they have won

wales606 wrote:I don't think that 2011 will have any bearing - just quoting some interesting stats from an ESPN article

For example, teams playing away to win a GS have lost more often that they have won

Well, that has to be the most unsurprising stat of the day

I think most of us have always said there's not a huge difference in quality across the 6Ns teams at the moment, with success or failure often coming down to who gets the momentum through the course of the tournament and who avoids being significantly depleted by injuries (look at the struggles Ireland have been having). Makes this match a tough call, as Wales probably feel the momentum is with them on the back of improving performances through the tournament, while England were the 'form' side early on but seem to be regressing (while still winning)

I think the form view has been overplayed. England go into the game having 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (vs top 3) since the last 6N - 5 wins on the trot (including all their 6N games to date, plus the ABs). We also have the advantage of having the complacency kicked out of us. In the same period Wales have lost 8 and won 3. Home advantage usually plays some part, but also carries pressure with it.

Our main weakness is at no 8, but we've had that in most of our games this 6N - and won. Plus most of our 1st choice players are available. This also allows for a pretty effective bench.

So I see all the pressure on Wales, and all the form with England; England by 5 - huzzah!

Barney

Agree with you about our issues at 8. I'd be happy to see Billy Vunipola start with Wood reverting to 6 and Haskell to the bench - should give us the big power carrier we've missed since Morgan's injury, and hopefully will add some power to the back of the scrum. While we've done OK with Wood at 8, it does make the back row appear a little lightweight and short of a big carrying player.

It is quite remarkable that other than Morgan, we've only been missing Corbs long term from the notional first XV - OK, Farrell missed last week, but should be back. Compare with Ireland, who are probably missing about 10 first choice players...

Barney - you keep working them stats if it makes you feel better