Will the Wallabies wobble in Rosario?

So, New Zealand will win the Rugby Championship in Ellis Park next weekend. They've been their usual clinical, skillful, brilliant selves- they are like the Mona Lisa of rugby. If you saw it for the first time as an adult you might be struck by it's beauty, but because it is so ubiquitous you take it for granted. As much as I enjoy watching NZ as a fan of the game in the purest sense, I have no real interest in the inevitable conclusion of this years championship. For New Zealand, the greatest rugby nation of them all, winning is always expected and therefore dull to a neutral.

The game that really gets the blood going is a fascinatingly poised game out in Argentina. The hosts have had 11 tests and 10 defeats (1 draw) since they joined the rugby championship but they're a different proposition at home- admittedly they haven't been clinical or accurate enough to win any games but there certainly have been a few close calls. New Zealand last night had too much class for them in the end but endured a tough night in the scrum at times- certainly Los Pumas looked competitive, and previously they've pushed Australia close away and missed a golden opportunity to beat South Africa earlier in this campaign.

I'm backing them to do a job on the Wallabies up front and deliver a narrow victory with scrum dominance and their outstanding loose forwards to the fore- I'm just wondering how everyone else sees it.

We said the same last year Notch and probably the win in Perth came as a surprise as well. Argentina have to do more than smash them up front. They have to score points in other areas. Nothing is a given and they shouldn't feel that victory is warranted because their scrum looks awesome. If we're being honest as neutrals, Argentina have been in positions already where they should've closed out games. They should approach the game thinking they can win but they should also be mindful of the fact that they have faded in the last quarter and need to accumulate points throughout the game in order to win.

As for the NZ SA match, if you feel the coming match will be dull because the title is probably decided, might I suggest it's worth a look purely as a rugby spectacle. I remember watching the Pumas play in Perth after the Eden Park match and I gave up after 20. It underwhelmed me. The ref's decision played a part no doubt but the physical intensity just wasn't there to be seen in the opening exchanges.

Notch wrote:The hosts have had 11 tests and 11 defeats since they joined the rugby championship

They drew 16-16 with SA last year.

I fancy the Aussies to come through with a narrow win here to at least end with a bit of pride.

This year's Quad Nations has been split in two quite neatly, the fodder (Aus, Arg) and the world beaters (NZ, SA). In other words the Aussies' poor run shouldn't be overamplified against a side that has been equally if not more dire. The difference all along has been in terms of expectation given the respective history of both sides. Argentina are still sporting the brave underdogs tag being the new boys at the table and at this point are praised merely for putting up a fight or making the final score close but have been the whipping boys in objective terms, similar to Italy's situation when they first joined the 6N. The Aussies are in another boat, despite having done marginally better they have copped way more flak.

By the same token Arg are playing for much more even though it's a dead rubber. If Aus win it will hardly ease the pressure on McKenzie to restore any semblance of the old status while an Argie win would go down as something special in Rosario. Significantly Aus have frustrated the Pumas home and away the few times they've played each other, notably going into those games under a similar amount of pressure. That's not to say conclusively that that will happen this time but it's worth considering. Arg may just as easily claim a first win, it being their last chance this year they might just be fired up enough. I can't easily call it and wouldn't be overly surprised either way. Hopefully the game be of quality unlike both teams' track records thus far.

Aw Kia the NZ SA game is good on its own merits, it'll probably be a ripper. But there's no story for me at the heart of it, and there'll be no real emotion at its conclusion. Either way a team that always wins will continue to win. We saw that last year and I'll catch that story next year and the year after, but I can't see tears of joy.

But in Rosario, man. Thats a real underdog story and a real golden chance- if they pull it off Rosario will explode. No one there will get any sleep. There will be tears of joy in abundance and the celebrations are sure to eclipse those of the tournament winners. When you consider where Argentina have come from from being perennial outsiders on the world stage who still have none of their own professional teams getting their first win in the most elite tournament in world rugby... massive deal. And the passion in that team... unreal.

If you can only see one game, thats why I would definitely pick the Argentina-Australia match every time. And it looks like I might miss them both! Depends on how my brothers wedding fits in around it all. We'll have to wait and see  

Depends on the time of the wedding and if there's an open bar.

I can see why people want Argentina to do well. I've enjoyed seeing Italy claim their scalps in the 6N particularly against France where they played compelling rugby. Unfortunately we've seen Argentina wrestle with playing to their traditional strengths and playing an offload and continuity game and not finding the right balance. Like Italy that takes time and Italy have yet to learn how to play as well away as they do at home and Argentina are similar but seem to play better at home against SA and away to NZ.

The RC has been very much a mixed bag this year. Two teams dominating though was much like this year's 6N. You need one more fighting for top spot to make it compelling. We got a sense of that in the opening round and then it fell away badly. We haven't had an upset yet in the RC. Perhaps the Argentina game is the best chance of that as a SA win at Ellis Park is not what I'd call an upset.

Yeah it's all been on script, which leads to it seeming to be much less of a spectacle than the Six Nations- despite the rugby being much better!

Argentina winning would be great for the tournament. But it would be a leap ahead in their development. I'll tell you though, these past seasons will lead to them being an even more dangerous beast than ever at the next World Cup come the quarter-finals. They've already been a dangerous opponent at past World Cups the added depth and big-game experience they've gained from this competition makes them even more of a wildcard...

Argentina have been industrious and workmanlike, powerful upfront and steady in defence.

They still can't last 80 minutes, and they still are more likely to graft out a try through perseverance than inspiration. The raft of clever individual tries seems to have dried up now that the other three have had time to analyze the players a and team work better.

Graham Henry would love to get another one over the Aussies and Ewen McKenzie has looked well out of his depth. Dropping Genia was an utterly obtuse move. Cooper is hamstrung by the very ordinary LLF outside him and the rest of the Aussie backs have either been shuffled so relentlessly that they appear dizzy and lost, or look like they're playing rugby league and expect to get up and play the ball rather than set up a ruck. 

Argentina should graft out a dull victory unless they lose composure. But it's unlikely to be a match remembered for any other reason.

The 4Ns has been highly predictable so far. You only have to look at Superbru to see that with huge numbers of people having predicted all 10 results so far correctly.

Finally though we have an interesting weekend where the results are not a foregone conclusion. Based on performances this year - Argentina should beat Australia rather comfortably.

Suspect they just guessed and lucked out tiger.

Whilst I reckon most people would like to see an Argentinian win, either just for the underdog come true or maybe thinking it will wake the Wallabies up, I don't.

Have been thoroughly disappointed with them for the last year, has been even worse than the end days of EJ's reign, where at least then we still had some slick moves even when losing. We need to win this, and win this well, just to set ourselves up for the comeback. If we go into the 3rd bledisloe game and the autumn tour on the back of an Argentinian defeat, I cannot see us having the strength and backing to get any respect for the rest of the season from other sides. After every defeat I have consoled myself that we couldn't go any lower, only to be proven wrong next match. It sometimes feel I am the  only Wallaby supporter in the pubs here nowadays, and then usually only have a few occasions to cheer in the pubs during the game. So I know that it is easy to say it's only Argentina, but for goodness sake, and for the squad, let's win this one convincingly, sp we can start building something up.

No good saying we're missing some key players, happens to every country, but I think a win will enable the back up players to have beliefs in themselves. After all, the S15 results were not as bad as the national squad's.

so I will say no, they'll not wobble, but surprise people with a decent win!! I say that as i am looking out the windows at pink elephants flying in their ugg boots!!