Cincy Thread

[The Special Juan]

First topic message reminder :

I didn't even realise the draw had been made.  Murray's got a decent one until the QFs (can we hope Roger and Jo play a 4 hour epic today?), Isner plays Anderson in the first round.  Either a double bagel over a mentally crushed Anderson or 2/3 tiebreaks.  Djokovic could barely have given himself a better draw.  Dimitrov and Stan are draw magnets!!

Draw is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Western_%26_Southern_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_Singles

or

here: http://assets.usta.com/assets/663/15/Mens_Main_Draw.pdf

[Henman Bill]

After Djokovic's defeat to Robredo, the US Open looks really open now. I am surprised to find after a quick check online that he is still the bookies favourite by a big margin. Murray is the second favourite, and Federer/Nadal almost neck and neck (not sure about that, either).

Is Del Potro going to make US Open, or is this not known yet?

Big match for Federer-Murray. The winner of that could become tournament favourite.

[Henman Bill]

I suppose the logic for the bookies making Nadal and Federer the same odds is that Nadal might not play. I assume once he lines up on the start line for R1 he will be ahead of Federer in the favourites list.

[YvonneT]

Wasn't Nadal going to confirm today if he was playing the US Open or not? Don't see any announcement anywhere.

Djokovic as favourite seems right to me. Pretty sure Del Potro is not playing, but think he's on the entry list for some of the Asian tournaments.

[Jahu]

Raonic making pasta from Foggy, 6:1 first set.

[The Special Juan]

Fognini's a disgrace.

[Haddie-nuff]

Fognini's a disgrace.

  

[kingraf]

Those kids at the beginning of the matches really give exuberant high fives. Real passion in them.

[The Special Juan]

Robredo v Ferrer didn't have the punters flocking today, with Ferrer winning in 3. Apparently there were lots more spectators at the Wozzie - Aggie match. I'd watch the Spaniards on a fast court (certainly better than Wozzie anyway).

[The Special Juan]

Murray has never won a match where I've called him Dandy Andy in the build-up. Will he break my duck tonight?

[YvonneT]

Wasn't Nadal going to confirm today if he was playing the US Open or not? Don't see any announcement anywhere.

Found the answer to my own question, decision postponed to next week:
B1PR
‏@b1pr
Decision on US Open participation for @RafaelNadal postponed till early next week. No decision today or tomorrow.
Not sure of that is positive for Nadal (not so bad as to be definitely out) or negative (presumably not practising at 100%). My guess would be he doesn't play, but who knows.

[The Special Juan]

Ha, Andy has a top 20 victory to his name now - Isner was (is?) ranked 14.

[The Special Juan]

Desperate start with a failed challenge on the first point. This won't last long!!

[YvonneT]

Will he break my duck tonight?

Different factors favour each, but I'm thinking no. Federer's used to the evening conditions and Murray hasn't beaten a top 10 player for over a year. Not sure he'll break that duck against Federer.
Mind you, with Federer's break point conversion rate, just maybe ....

[Jahu]

Fed crap at start. Gives back 2 BP.

Wake up pappi and knock him bandy.

[YvonneT]

Ha, Andy has a top 20 victory to his name now - Isner was (is?) ranked 14.

He beat Tsonga in Miami too. But that's it on top 20 wins in a year I think.

[The Special Juan]

Mohamed Lahyani currently giving the impression he is the world's happiest man. Meanwhile, not even 3 games played but Murray has saved 4 BPs and wasted 2 challenges.

[The Special Juan]

Ha, Andy has a top 20 victory to his name now - Isner was (is?) ranked 14.

He beat Tsonga in Miami too. But that's it on top 20 wins in a year I think.

So he did. The first part of the season up until the clay flew by for me. I don't even remember who won IW and Miami.

[Jahu]

Another 4 BP for Fed wasted.

Disaster and he will pay for it.

[The Special Juan]

Halep's an early break up on Shazza in the women's tournament.

[The Special Juan]

This is a good match - both players have had to come up with a couple of gems.

[Jahu]

Fed breaks finally on 7th BP in 4 games.

Andy needs another female on his team.

[YvonneT]

Murray saves 6 BPs in the first 2 service games then broken from 30-0 up in his third. Needs to get his return game going cos he can't rely on his serve.

[The Special Juan]

Neither are working... Federer shows how to save a BP with 3 great serves (he's 33!! Wha's he serving at 128mph for?????)

[Henman Bill]

I am going to guess Rafa will play.

However, I think this is very close. Maybe it will come down to a decision about whether there is any risk of injury and perhaps whether he really believes he can compete. Being the defending champion, he may make extra effort to play.

[The Special Juan]

At least his volleys are dross!

[Henman Bill]

If Fed could take BPs he might have a set already, maybe even some baked goods.

[Jahu]

Fed at the Net worst then Djoko.

Unseen.

[The Special Juan]

How does the Kisscam know that these people are couples and aren't two randoms sitting beside each other?

[Henman Bill]

Maybe the kiss cam people scope it out, e.g. see them kissing earlier or holding hands or whispering romantically in each other's ears..or other more subtle signs.

[The Special Juan]

Jeez, again he faces a BP and then hits 3 worldies.

[Jahu]

They make them kiss at the entrance and then facial recongnition kicks in.

[The Special Juan]

Maybe the kiss cam people scope it out, e.g. see them kissing earlier or holding hands or whispering romantically in each other's ears..or other more subtle signs.

I love the idea of some pervy cameraman spying on crowd members to see if they are romantically involved.   *Kisscam cuts to Mirka and Stefan*

[Jahu]

Fed toying around now.

6:3 first set.

[Henman Bill]

double break and what 2-3 other games with break points? 6-3 but could have been 8-1 , if you see what I mean.

[The Special Juan]

Murray's not playing badly at all.  The serve's dire but I saw that coming because he kept working on it during the warm-up when Federer had already sat down.  Roger well worth his lead though.

[The Special Juan]

double break and what 2-3 other games with break points? 6-3 but could have been 8-1 , if you see what I mean.

But Murray's had BPs in 2 service games. It's not how many you have, it's how many you take. I always found BP conversion rate to be a useless stat, especially against an Isner or Karlovic.

[Jahu]

Sooo much space between the rows of seats on Canada/USA.

I guess they have calculated the beefed up people.

Compared to courts and seats in Europe ATP 1000/500, they feel Business class.

[The Special Juan]

Halep takes the first set 6-3 v Shazza. I'd put the Romanian 2nd favourite for the USO provided she's recovered from her Wimbledon injury.

[Henman Bill]

I think Murray's has played (fairly) badly so far. He is letting Federer into too many rallies with weak serving and not doing enough with the rest of his game.

[YvonneT]

Murray's first set stats:
First serve percentage 47%
First serve won 55%
Second serve won 50%
OK his second serve has always been weak, but it's the first serve and lack of that's causing a lot of problems for Murray - most exposed against Federer, of course, but giving opportunities to much lesser players too.

[The Special Juan]

Doesn't matter if you're Isner, Nadal or Federer, if you don't hit first serves then you won't win matches, even if the rest of your game is working. (That game there is exhibit A - Fed couldn't buy a first serve and is broken).

[YvonneT]

Halep takes the first set 6-3 v Shazza.  I'd put the Romanian 2nd favourite for the USO provided she's recovered from her Wimbledon injury.

Halep's won a tournament since then and rested last week instead of playing Montreal so I think she'll be fine. She's playing next week though which is not what I expect of a top contender (rather more Woz like).
Sharapova took a long bathroom break after losing the first set - how unlike her 

[The Special Juan]

How quickly things change...

[The Special Juan]

Halep takes the first set 6-3 v Shazza.  I'd put the Romanian 2nd favourite for the USO provided she's recovered from her Wimbledon injury.

Halep's won a tournament since then and rested last week instead of playing Montreal so I think she'll be fine. She's playing next week though which is not what I expect of a top contender (rather more Woz like).
Sharapova took a long bathroom break after losing the first set - how unlike her 

I didn't know she'd won something, cheers. If she won this week, surely she'd pull out? (Bonus points for the Wozzi comment too!!) Halep now a breka up in the second. MTO for Shazza?

[Jahu]

Andy kicking ass.

Or Fed melting.

Either way, much better set.

[Silver]

Murray's got to keep this going and keep the first serves rolling in. Letting Federer dictate from the back is a massive error in these conditions; as HB says, he needs to shut the rallies off early and take the initiative away.

And I know the form book suggests otherwise, but Murray should really be looking to win this and build momentum for the USO/get absolutely match fit. Federer must be slightly leggy from Toronto, and Andy can exploit a weak-ish draw that lies beyond this, no disrespect intended to Milos and Daveed!

[Henman Bill]

Totally Murray should be looking to win this. Fed's form is decent but hardly scintillating, he's a declining 33 year old playing Murray at peak age. Even young Murray tended to beat Fed in non slams.

[The Special Juan]

Murray's got to keep this going and keep the first serves rolling in. Letting Federer dictate from the back is a massive error in these conditions; as HB says, he needs to shut the rallies off early and take the initiative away.

And I know the form book suggests otherwise, but Murray should really be looking to win this and build momentum for the USO/get absolutely match fit. Federer must be slightly leggy from Toronto, and Andy can exploit a weak-ish draw that lies beyond this, no disrespect intended to Milos and Daveed!

Raonic will probably win anyway (I think he'll win regardless of who's playing him). One does not simply break Raonic. But yeah, the whole tournament's on a plate for these two but only one can prevail!

[The Special Juan]

Who'd have thought there would be this many breaks in a match between these two at Cinci?

[Jahu]

1 break back for Fed.

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