Cincy Thread

[The Special Juan]

First topic message reminder :

I didn't even realise the draw had been made.  Murray's got a decent one until the QFs (can we hope Roger and Jo play a 4 hour epic today?), Isner plays Anderson in the first round.  Either a double bagel over a mentally crushed Anderson or 2/3 tiebreaks.  Djokovic could barely have given himself a better draw.  Dimitrov and Stan are draw magnets!!

Draw is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Western_%26_Southern_Open_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_Singles

or

here: http://assets.usta.com/assets/663/15/Mens_Main_Draw.pdf

[DirectView2]

What's the chances of Murray being able to hold serve to stay in the match?

My favourite rivalry too TSJ, and normally I don't mind too much who wins, but just feel that Murray really needed this one.    

I would say Federer needed this one badly, he is losing so many finals of late, 2 Masters final lost and a Slam final lost this year and yet to win anything credible, so if he could somehow muster a Cincy title here it will give him a lot of confidence for USO.

Also he will be 2nd behind Djoko on Race and only 1000 points behind him, so it will make the year end no.1 a three horse race.

I think Federer would have been just fine without it. Murray really needed it confidence-wise and points-wise. But what he really needs is a reliable serve.

Anyway, Federer had better beat Raonic now. But I'm not sure he will.

I don't agree on Murray needed this more than Fed, Murray got ample time to correct the flaws that crept into his game since his return , its better he lost it and hence it could fire him more, had he won the flaws would have continued, so good for both players with what happened.

I agree with you on Roanic match, Fed will have work cut off against Raonic, Wimbledon was a different thing all together, these are ultra fast courts and Raonic serve will mostly go unbroken.

[Henman Bill]

Yes Silver was just thinking this earlier..Murray was 6-2 up at one stage I think!

In my opinion, their head to head was decided in the Wimbledon final of 2012. It gave Federer a likely unassailable lead of 3-0 in slam finals I believe, that's what really counts.

[Jahu]

If someone can tame big servers, its Fed.

Benneteau is biger danger!!

[YvonneT]

Well, DirectView, you are obviously taking a very Federer-centric view there, and I perhaps the opposite. I certainly agree why Federer would want to win this title, but don't think makes a realistic difference to his chances in New York.

I'm not sure where you see that Murray has "ample time" to correct the flaws that caused a 2nd set collapse tonight. Unless you're talking about for the Aus Open!

[Henman Bill]

Federer needs USO for year end no 1. As it should be.

[lags72]

It was undoubtedly Andy who needed this win, not Federer.

There is no way Fed "needs" anything at this stage of his career. And - as YvonneT says above - he would have been just fine without a win tonight ; indeed more R&R ahead of the USO might in some ways have even suited him better after recent exertions. He really has been playing some tremendous stuff recently, battling his way through tough encounters and everyone who walks out on to court against him is younger - sometimes even by a decade or so ...... 

He will finally tire tomorrow v Raonic, but that's to be expected.

Sure, he must be disappointed to have lost out in several MS Finals having come within touching distance - not to mention Wimbledon too of course (so best not mention it .....). BUT .....he has been losing only to the likes of Djokovic, to Wawrinka (who was in his best AO form during that Monte Carlo week) and then to JWT, who we know can steamroll anyone & everyone on his day.

The  simple fact is nobody even gets to so many top tier Finals at 33, let alone win them. Certainly nobody of this current generation does so (or is likely to) and the only guys that spring to mind from the past are perhaps Agassi and Jimbo. I seem to think (?) that Federer has actually won more matches this year than anyone else on tour ; pretty remarkable in itself, regardless of those Final losses.

So .....no concerns for Federer, but plenty for Murray to ponder. It's quite possible that everything could suddenly gel for him once the USO gets started, and then he will be a genuine favourite. We know how much the place motivates him. But it's also possible that he is in for a very difficult prolonged spell. The pressure is on, and regaining that top four ranking spot looks quite a challenge right now .......

[Josiah Maiestas]

Murray letting down the whole of Scotland once more.

Roger can beat anyone but Nadal even if he's not nearly like he was in 2006/2007. It'll make the USO odds very interesting...

[YvonneT]

There is no way Fed "needs" anything at this stage of his career.

Well, this time last year, he sure did need wins in terms of wanting to continue to challenge for big (or any titles). It all came together in the indoor season I think (and then he swapped the off season exo tour for some proper training). You can say he doesn't need the titles either, and that's true, but he clearly wants them. So not needing the wins is situational to his recent form and matchplay, not his career achievements.

[DirectView2]

I'm not sure where you see that Murray has "ample time" to correct the flaws that caused a 2nd set collapse tonight. Unless you're talking about for the Aus Open!

Murray is what 26? he still got like 4 more years at his top game, I can understand you are a die hard Muzza fan and wants him to win everything, and his h2h lead over Fed is lost as well, so its pretty understandable from a Muzza point of view why you want him to win, but otherwise its good for him to go back analyze the flaws crept into his game and work for a better version of him in the future, stop gap solution is no good.

Its good for Fed coz its give him confidence to keep the fight goind, as pointed earlier he lost so many this year and yet to win anything meaningful, secondly he winning the title here would put him in contention along with Rafa for year end no.1, which makes the remaining part of the calendar and USO interesting.

So Fed winning makes more meaningful for both players.

[DirectView2]

It was undoubtedly Andy who needed this win, not Federer.

In simple terms I disagree completely, reason see above.

[YvonneT]

Hard to know where Federer is for the US Open - he's getting through matches even where he's playing relatively poorly for spells, while his main rivals are injured, or messing up big time. Is it easier for them to stop messing up than for Federer to cut out the poor spells? Mainly talking about Djokovic here, I suppose, as I've already declared my negativity on Murray.
Maybe it is time for another winner from outside the "big 4", and it feels like someone might not have to work as hard as Wawrinka for it (more a last player standing like Bartoli/Li than someone cutting through the whole field).

[YvonneT]

DirectView, Murray's 27 I think, not 26, and for me, he's got to start turning round his form by early next season or he'll fall back pretty quickly. He's played some great matches this year, but seems to have no confidence in the biggest matches and I don't know that he's got the appetite to grind out wins in smaller tournaments to keep a decent ranking (a la Hewitt) only to lose the big matches.
(And of the top players, I like Murray to win but am not a die hard fan, thanks).

[DirectView2]

DirectView, Murray's 27 I think, not 26, and for me, he's got to start turning round his form by early next season or he'll fall back pretty quickly. He's played some great matches this year, but seems to have no confidence in the biggest matches and I don't know that he's got the appetite to grind out wins in smaller tournaments to keep a decent ranking (a la Hewitt) only to lose the big matches.
(And of the top players, I like Murray to win but am not a die hard fan, thanks).

Why I thought you are a Muzza fan coz you are not happy with his achievements already, the whole of Brit cried for a slam from him and he got 2 which included Wimbledon, he has won numerous Masters and Olympics, his place is guaranteed already in the history, even if he retires tomorrow he will be one of those players who will be remembered for some time.

He is not going to make anything different with a win here, in contrast as said before Roger could fight for the year end No.1 again, which makes the tennis calendar at the top 1 3 horse race and more interesting for we fans, Rafa is catching him pretty quick so Roger needs to put some more stats and Roger knows that very well, given his age he needs some kind of smooth draw to win a title these days and and he got that in Wimbledon and Toronto yet goofed it up, he could very well goof it up tomorrow here as well, so he certainly needs a lot of luck and deservedly got something today.

[Born Slippy]

Pretty obvious Murray needed a win more than Fed. I am sure Fed would have happily taken the rest! Good to see Murray finding new amusing ways to lose though - can't honestly remember him losing a set from a double break up before. Still no win over a top 10 player since Wimbledon last year.

Fed should take the title from here. Disagree with the view he will lose to Raonic - should be able to win that at 80% and Ferrer/Benne aren't beating him in a Masters final..

[Born Slippy]

DirectView, Murray's 27 I think, not 26, and for me, he's got to start turning round his form by early next season or he'll fall back pretty quickly. He's played some great matches this year, but seems to have no confidence in the biggest matches and I don't know that he's got the appetite to grind out wins in smaller tournaments to keep a decent ranking (a la Hewitt) only to lose the big matches.
(And of the top players, I like Murray to win but am not a die hard fan, thanks).

I genuinely don't think its far away. He is actually playing decent enough tennis - just not bringing it against the top guys. Aim for this season though has to be to end back in the top 8 (top 4 is probably gone now after that loss) and at least play the wtf. If he can win a title somewhere - even a 250 - that may free up the nerves in the big matches. A full winter training block and then hopefully he will be back to normal next year.

[invisiblecoolers]

Not sure what this all argument of who needed to win more, the both of them needed to win to proceed to the next round failing they exit the tournament, Murray failed and he exited.

The golden rule is the one who wins deserve to win, Murray didn't deserve to win today, certainly with not that kinda performance, come on double break up against a 33 year old and if you lose you deserve to lose.

Lets put the debate to rest and wish Murray all the best for USO, sometimes losing early could be a blessing in disguise for the next upcoming tournament, and USO is way bigger than Cincy.

[LuvSports!]

Murray serve has to be up there with the great shots of the game on this performance. Probably a notch below Sampras at his best if we're really asking, but not much in it.

Sarcasm surely?!?!?

[Born Slippy]

I really hope so! Closer to Volandri than Sampras on present form.

[The Special Juan]

Another Fed Ferrer match on Final   

That out to be the match of the year...

I wouldn't mind supporting Ferrer if that happens, after all Fed has lost to many junks in the past few years [specially late last year, 2011 and 2008] but Ferrer could never catch him on one of those off days.

Can't see it at Cinci. Maybe a slower HC or clay, but not here. I think this is Raonic's to lose.

[lags72]

Raonic is certainly the form man this week. Two very clinical wins, and a good comeback from behind in his other match.

In contrast it's been something of a struggle for the old man Fed to get this far. He has battled well, sure  ......but can the legs hold up ....?

[The Special Juan]

Raonic is certainly the form man this week. Two very clinical wins, and a good comeback from behind in his other match.

In contrast it's been something of a struggle for the old man Fed to get this far. He has battled well, sure  ......but can the legs hold up ....?

The way he was moving last night there's no problem there and a match with Raonic won't be too physically demanding, even if it goes to 3 TBs. With the court speed I doubt even Nadal could get many of these serves back into play.

[LuvSports!]

Yes but look at the opponents Raonic has faced.
He got lucky against Johnson, faced ginepri who has won just a couple of matches this year but then played very well against a poor Fognini.
I don't think he has been that impressive.
Feds has had to come through a tougher field.
All of which are in the top 30. Pospisil, monfils, murray.

[YvonneT]

Yeah, I was thinking that Raonic had been so consistent and hardly broken this year, but he's had some pretty good draws all year:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Milos-Raonic.aspx?t=pa
He's got to 5th in the race beating 1 top 10 player (Murray in March, not exactly on form) and 3 top 20 players. He's had amazing luck with draws actually - and then getting into the top 8 obviously helps with that.
That said, although Federer leads the H2H 5-0, the BO3 have been close and his woeful performance at Wimbledon was far off Raonic's best. Should be closer tonight. I certainly hope Federer wins - I don't find anything entertaining in Raonic's game.

[The Special Juan]

The sadist in me wants Raonic to win but for tennis' sake, please win Roger. I might forgive you for last night.

[The Special Juan]

Watching Wozzi v Serena.

1) Wozzi's playing a not bad match. She's not aggressive but she's not exactly pushing it back to Williams as she normally does.

2) Although he sounds like Tim Henman, Nigel Sears (I think it's him?) is a really good commentator.

3) Serena will not win the USO.

[Silver]

It really is a quirk for the statisticians to analyse - who is the best returner of serve on tour? Djokovic, and Federer is renowned for his poor return, certainly compared to his peers.

Conversely, who is the best returner against the huge servers? A real case can be made for Federer (actual answer: probably still Djokovic, maybe Murray).

I can only assume it's because his slice/block return is basically the best on tour, and if players can't take advantage of that sort of return like the top players do, then they're in trouble...particularly if they lack an all-court game. Fed has excellent anticipation and control on that backhand side when returning the bombs, so Raonic may get frustrated. That said, Wimbledon aside, all of their matches have been close. Annnnd I've just realised that Yvonne just said the same thing.

I'm more interested in seeing whether Benne can keep the run alive!

[lydian]

Serena is losing the fire in the belly...we all know she's head and shoulders above this generation of women players. Must be hard to motivate herself knowing that, yet for the others it makes them raise their game whenever they face her, it's the perfect double whammy. In the meantime, we wait for the next Serena/Steffi/Monica/Chrissie/Martina or Justine. Where art thou...?

[lags72]

Yeah, I was thinking that Raonic had been so consistent and hardly broken this year, but he's had some pretty good draws all year:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Milos-Raonic.aspx?t=pa
He's got to 5th in the race beating 1 top 10 player (Murray in March, not exactly on form) and 3 top 20 players. He's had amazing luck with draws actually - and then getting into the top 8 obviously helps with that.
That said, although Federer leads the H2H 5-0, the BO3 have been close and his woeful performance at Wimbledon was far off Raonic's best. Should be closer tonight. I certainly hope Federer wins - I don't find anything entertaining in Raonic's game.

You make a good point wrt the 'luck of the draw' (literally) in Raonic's case, and the fact that he didn't need to beat the very best to make his way right up there to 5th in the Race to London. But all said & done, and if we accept (as ever) that you can only play the guy in front of you, he is there on merit and has made more progress than many others.

And yes, I suspect that tonight will be close and fully expect him to put on a far better show than at Wimbledon (which I think was just one bridge too far for him, given his limited experience on the big stage to date). Wouldn't be especially surprised if he finally got his first win v the Fed ...... if only because once it goes to TB's, it really can be a lottery.

Agree 100% when it comes to the entertainment factor ; nothing magical or exciting to be experienced from watching Raonic on court, and the thought of him making Slam Finals in future years (wouldn't rule it out once the current top guys start to slide......) is hardly an enticing prospect.

[The Special Juan]

Serena is losing the fire in the belly...we all know she's head and shoulders above this generation of women players. Must be hard to motivate herself knowing that, yet for the others it makes them raise their game whenever they face her, it's the perfect double whammy. In the meantime, we wait for the next Serena/Steffi/Monica/Chrissie/Martina or Justine. Where art thou...?

We've got Bouchard, Halep (she's only 22 or something), Mug, Mladenovic, Garcia, Bencic and Vekic. Robbo might win a major if she stays fit but as I've said, I don't see her coming back.

[lags72]

Benneteau has had a very decent career from the sport, put a good bit of money in the bank .....and it sure beats working for a living.

He will be 33 in December. Safe to say if he hasn't made a big Final after all these years, then it's never gonna happen.

Minimum energy expended by Daveed for his comfortable win, lots of time to rest up ahead of tomorrow.

[HM Murdock]

Conversely, who is the best returner against the huge servers? A real case can be made for Federer (actual answer: probably still Djokovic, maybe Murray).

I'd say Federer. Definitely not Djokovic.

Djokovic cannot dismantle a huge serve in the way that Federer can because his blocked return is pretty ordinary. In fact, he rarely uses it. He tends to go after a big server in the same way he goes after a more normal serve. When it works, it's fantastic, but more often you see Novak getting really frustrated.

I do consider Djokovc to be the best returner on tour, but the very biggest servers are a chink in his armour.

[kingraf]

Always thought Ferru was a fantastic returner of big serves. I mean he has to be...

[The Special Juan]

Oh yeah, Ferrer's a great shout. I know Djokovic, Murray and Federer all have lots of respect for the wee man's return game. He very rarely loses to the big servers.

[Guest]

The scheduling for the semis is completely unfair for the guys in the second semi.

They play a whopping 6 hours after the first semi!!

I'm not sure what time the final starts tomorrow, but if it is around 3pm as I expect, then the later pair are at a significant disadvantage. Particularly now as the opponent will be the energizer bunny himself.

It likely cost Federer the title last week and may well do the same this week, if he were to get through tonight.

Really sucks  

[The Special Juan]

Nah, not against Ferrer. What's the H2H these days? 15-0 or something?

[Silver]

Nobody beats David Ferrer 16 times in a row, etc

[summerblues]

While I would love to see Fed win tonight and on Sunday, I mostly hope he is careful and does not overplay and tire himself for the USO.

I am worried that with the way the season has been playing out, Fed might sense an opportunity to reclaim #1 spot and that will make him go for too much here only to run out of gas at the USO.

[bogbrush]

This really must be one of the weirdest schedules ever.

With no weather impact there's one semi finished 6 hours ago and the other coming onto Court at 10.30, with the final at 4 tomorrow.

[lags72]

Yep, this second semi really should have got started a lot sooner, it's all very unbalanced.

Certainly Federer looks keen to get to bed asap. Rattling through the games in quickfire style ... just like in his heyday. Raonic has no time to settle into any kind of rhythm, and the first set was done & dusted before he knew it  

[kingraf]

Who is the guy with the shorts and blue shirts? Didn't he get the dress code memo?

[lags72]

Masterclass in how to dismantle the big-serving Raonic. Sorted in just over the hour mark.

(But don't try this at home ......)

[bogbrush]

At least he didn't get into a war.

Very efficient from Federer, no small thing breaking that serve three times out of eight on this fast surface. Probably helped him to play at night. Then again Federer has always beat up on the big servers.

[lags72]

Took time away from Raonic, just as he did with almost all opponents in the prime years.

If there's such a thing as a Cincy specialist, Federer is that man. Let's see if he can finish the job tomorrow......Daveed will fight hard.

[TRuffin]

Some continue to underestimate Goat Federer with these predictions Raonic will beat him. certainly Raonic himself with all of his "I learned my lessons and can't wait for another shot at him". well- he got it!

I don't see how Raonic can ever beat Fed short of a fluke one here and there ala Roddick. He has no return game to even ruffle Feds calm. Even in the second set when he had some chances, Fed shut the door by raising his level just a notch. Raoinic can't break Fed, and Fed has broken guys with an as good, even better serve countless times. So how does Raonic beat him with any consistency? Not going to happen IMO.

Even if Raonic continues to improve the return game- fed has several levels more beyond what he's using to beat Raonic now.

[invisiblecoolers]

Fed as always been magical on Cincy and today was no different, but tomorrow might be a different prospect, Daveed might have to get his rub of the stats, come on 15-0 is not fair to his level, when Simon Giles once had 2-0 over Fed.

[lags72]

TRuffin - I think Raonic could hope to win a match where all sets go to TB's simply because it can then become something of a lottery as we have seen over the years. IIRC, big Isner took the two opening sets v Rafa on TB's - and at RG of all places. Mind you, Rafa has been blasted off court more than once by big servers.

Meanwhile the Canadian can at least console himself with the thought that Fed will be gone from the Tour within another year or two (after Rio Olympics ....?), maybe less - and also the fact that his limited game is much more effective against most others he faces week to week.

[summerblues]

Just waking up and seeing the score. Looks amazingly easy looking at the numbers. Raonic only won 68% of his 1st serve points - surely it must be about as low as he ever gets? Meanwhile, Fed won a much cooler 88% of his 1st serve points.

Glad to see Fed did not have to spend much energy. I am still worried about potential fatigue for the USO - he will have played max number of matches both in Toronto and Cincy.

[Jahu]

What a match.

Well done pappi.

[Haddie-nuff]

Tell me somebody please ... how DID Raonic get to No.7.... did I fall asleep and miss something... 

[HM Murdock]

For all Federer's acclaimed attacking skills, I find his ability to dismantle with a huge server every bit as amazing. It's stunning and it seems like it hasn't declined with age.

He has a very real chance at USO.

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