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Does the Draw Matter?

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lydian
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Post by Henman Bill Wed 20 Aug 2014 - 16:03

Tomorrow, the draw will be made for the US Open. It will probably be discussed at length on this forum and elsewhere e.g. who has the tricky Murray QF and who has a tricky R2 opponent etc. But does it really matter that much? Certainly to lesser players it matters a great deal but to top players? Maybe not so much. If you're Djokovic does it really affect your chances that much who you play in round 2? If you're in enough form to win the title you should breeze through any such R2 opponent anyway whether they be ranked 30 or 100. In any case, in recent years top players were just as likely to lose suprisingly to a 100-ranked player at a slam as a 30 ranked player who might have looked more dangerous in theory.

Anyway, I'm going to test the theory by posting the bookies odds to win the tournament now and then repeating this after the draw has been made. Let's see how much difference the draw is really going to make. So for example:

Djokovic is mostly at 5/4 or 6/5 with a few having him at 11/10 or 13/10. Average of that is 49/40.
Federer is mostly at 3/1. Those that have different odds have slightly longer mostly. Average is 3.15/1.
Murray is mostly at 4/1 or 9/2 with a few 7/2. Average is 4.2/1.

Here is how the players average odds stand first with traditional odds then decimal odds in brackets then implied % chance of winning the tournament. This is the average of over 20 bookies listed on the odds checker website.

Djokovic 49/40 (2.225) 45%
Federer 3.15/1 (4.15) 24%
Murray 4.2/1 (5.2) 19%
Dimitrov 16.0/1 (17) 6%
Tsonga 20.6/1 (21.6) 5%
Raonic 23.5/1 (24.5) 4%

The next lot I won't calculate properly to save time but a quick scan of very rough average odds:

Berdych - mostly 33/1, 40/1, 50/1, 66/1 or 70/1 or 80/1 so average may be around 50/1
Ferrer - mostly 50/1 or 66/1 average maybe about 60/1
Gulbis -mostly 80/1 with some 100/1 and 66/1 say average 80/1
Isner - mostly 100/1 with a few above and below say average 100/1
Cilic - as above, mostly 100/1 with a few others one way or the other average 100/1
Kyrgios - as above, 100/1 average
Nishikori- most commonly 50/1 with more of the others above, say average 60/1

Note: The % add to over 100% because of bookies profit margin which I've not accounted for. So for real winning % should be slightly lower than those stated.

The draw is at 12 noon, if I have time between 11am and 12 noon tomorrow (depending on work commitments) I'll check the odds again and maybe post any update.

If anyone claims a tough draw for their player making it more difficult for them to win, let's see if the bookies and punters agree.


Last edited by Henman Bill on Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 21:09; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Djokovic's decimal odds were originally stated as 1.225. This is not correct. It should be 2.225 which it now says.)

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Post by Jahu Wed 20 Aug 2014 - 16:19

warning Betting advert & promotion? On whose payroll are you now?
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Post by bogbrush Wed 20 Aug 2014 - 17:14

Good idea, I wait with interest.

If Murray and Tsonga are in Novak's half I like Federers odds.
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Post by lags72 Wed 20 Aug 2014 - 19:26

Good article HB  thumbsup

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 17:51

OK, so the odds I put up are still the same on odds checker, although some bookies have removed their odds as the draw is in progress now. No real changes yet.

Does anyone know how long it takes for odds checker to update.

For example a change by Ladbrokes made at 1pm, would typically show on Oddschecker within a minute, an hour, a day? Anyone know?

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Post by HM Murdock Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 19:23

Novak has copped another tough draw.

Hardest QF against Murray or Tsonga and the hardest SF against Wawrinka.

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Post by bogbrush Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 19:35

I can't get access to a full draw anywhere, something wrong with my internet.

Any chance anyone could post something up?
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Post by The Special Juan Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 19:44

bogbrush wrote:I can't get access to a full draw anywhere, something wrong with my internet.

Any chance anyone could post something up?

Fed route:

Mad dog Matosevic
Ramos
Karlovic/Nieminen
Fognini/Bautista-Agut
Dimitrov/Gasquet
Ferrer
Djokovic
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Post by bogbrush Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 19:46

Thanks!

Boy, he's got a really tough draw in the final there!
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Post by The Special Juan Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:03

It's a good 'un, that's for sure. I look at that final run and think "where does he drop sets?" let alone lose a match!

Nadal could have reached the final with that draw.
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Post by HM Murdock Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:10

A dream draw for Federer.

If Dimi brings his best, he could be a challenge in the QF but, apart from that, I can hardly see Federer dropping a set before the final.

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:22

I noticed that a lots of bookies odds disappeared on odds checker, and now they are nearly all returned again. That would presumably because some bookies suspended markets around the time of the draw, and re released new odds meaning they are up to date. So stand by for some after draw odds.

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Post by bogbrush Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:45

Federer will find a way of throwing me into despair some time before the final, and it does only take one guy to knock you out. Dimitrov is capable of that and suddenly he's dropping sets to Ferrer.

I'm not saying it's a tough draw. I'm now moving on to plotting a way for a severely depleted opponent in the final. Oh for stupid Saturday and Fed going first!


Last edited by bogbrush on Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:47; edited 1 time in total
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Post by The Special Juan Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:47

Final's on Monday this year, isn't it?
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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:57

Previous Average Odds (Now Out of Date)

Djokovic 49/40 (2.225) 45%
Federer 3.15/1 (4.15) 24%
Murray 4.2/1 (5.2) 19%
Dimitrov 16.0/1 (17) 6%
Tsonga 20.6/1 (21.6) 5%
Raonic 23.5/1 (24.5) 4%

New Average Odds (21.8.14 at ~3.30pm)
Djokovic 54/40 (2.35) 43%
Federer 2.43/1 (3.43) 29%
Murray 5.83/1 (6.83) 15%
Dimitrov 15.9/1 (16.9) 6%
Tsonga 22.6/1 (23.6) 4%
Raonic 23.3/1 (24.3) 4%

With apologies to Stan Warwinka, 7% chance of winning the tournament now, but as to before the draw oops I seem to have missed him off.

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Post by The Special Juan Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 20:59

Very interesting HB. Of course the draw matters. One only has to look at Raonic's year to see that...
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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 21:00

Djokovic must have a slightly difficult draw, as his odds to win dip from 45% to 43%.
Federer's draw sees his odds soar from 24% to 29%!
Murray crashes from 19% to 15%. I assume he has a tricky draw.
Dimitrov and Raonic must have an average draw, no change.
Tsonga's might have something tricky in it, as his odds have moved out.

I think we can conclude from this that draws make a difference, even to the top players.

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Post by Silver Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 21:03

This is fascinating to see. Cheers HB.

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 21:07

Berdych - average 50/1 before, after 40/1.
Ferrer - average 60/1 before, after 50/1.
Gulbis -average 80/1 before, after 70/1.
Isner - average 100/1 before, after 100/1.
Cilic - average 100/1 before, after 80/1.
Kyrgios - average 100/1 before, after 120/1.
Nishikori- average 60/1 before, after 80/1.

Unlike the previous ones which were calculated as the actual average of 20+ bookmakers, these are very quick glance at about where the average odds lie within the range, so pretty rough.

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Post by The Special Juan Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 21:31

Isner's will rocket HB. He's picked up an injury in Winston-Salem.
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Post by lags72 Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 22:06

William Hill are offering 14/1 on Stan. I'd say that's worth a go ......  chin 

Ok, it's been a season of peaks & troughs, but if he could play himself into some form, who knows .....

Last year he made a great run to the semis where Djokovic had to go the distance to stop him.

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Post by bogbrush Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 22:25

Gotta say I don't like Djokovic at barely better than evens, both on form and draw.
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Post by lydian Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 22:41

Federer won't get a better chance than this...Nadal AWOL, a dream draw, Djokovic out of sorts and Murray...well...nuff said.

BB...you must be feeling pretty good Smile
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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 22:46

Possible that Murray's position in the draw is the main thing that changed the odds.

Federer's odds up because Murray not in his half.

Djokovic's odds slightly down because Murray (and Tsonga) in his quarter.

Murray's odds down because Tsonga chance at R4 and Djokovic's quarter.

Tsonga's odds down because could have Murray at R4 and Djokovic in the quarter.

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 22:46

lydian wrote:Federer won't get a better chance than this...Nadal AWOL, a dream draw, Djokovic out of sorts and Murray...well...nuff said.

BB...you must be feeling pretty good Smile

Don't forget the psychology of a Federer fan. The despair of hope.

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Post by Henman Bill Thu 21 Aug 2014 - 22:51

Berdych better odds because Djokovic (he has a poor record I believe) and Murray and Tsonga all in the other half. Berdych at best form (yes I know it's been a while) could go the final. He is caoable of beating Federer, I think he has a decent record against him.

Ferrer and Gulbis and Cilic odds also improved - same section of the draw.

Kyrgios and Nishikori odds got worse - they are in the Murray/Djokovic half.

All makes sense really.

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Post by summerblues Fri 22 Aug 2014 - 3:30

Very cool HB, thanks for putting it together.  I had often wanted to do just this, but always found myself too lazy to actually go ahead.  It is nice to see how the changes in the odds reflect the perceived draw difficulty.  Pretty clear that Fed's draw looks good.

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Post by Snakeyman123 Mon 25 Aug 2014 - 12:45

First time poster on here chaps. Good summary Henman Bill. Can't help wanting to lay Djokovic at 2.5ish on Betfair. He looks vulnerable given recent form and draw
...

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Post by Josiah Maiestas Mon 25 Aug 2014 - 13:59

Djokovic had the hardest draw at Wimbledon, this time its relatively comfortable.. my value is Ferrer at 35/1 Erm Powering through to Semi's at the worst
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Post by DirectView2 Mon 25 Aug 2014 - 22:16

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Djokovic had the hardest draw at Wimbledon, this time its relatively comfortable.. my value is Ferrer at 35/1 Erm Powering through to Semi's at the worst

How about Ferrer winning the title here? both Djoko and Fed can take him out but they can easily go down in the earlier rounds, if there is one guys thats very consistent against non top -5 its David Ferrer.

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Post by The Special Juan Mon 25 Aug 2014 - 22:35

Story of Ferrer's career, especially over the last few years. I would guess that most of the time only the big 5 stop him.
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