Can the Springboks beat the ABs this weekend?

First topic message reminder :

Here is the team

Springboks – 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Duane Vermeulen/Schalk Burger, 7 Oupa Mohoje, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Subs: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Marcel van der Merwe, 19 Bakkies Botha, 20 Schalk Burger/Warren Whiteley, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 JP Pietersen.

I look at the side and think they probably did well to beat AUS the way they did. AUS simply ran out of steam.

The forward pack - solid front five but missing Louw, Alberts and maybe Vermeulen... Coetzee & Mohoje are not in the same league as Alberts and Louw and Burger is past his best (20 min cameos are fine but 80 mins is a different issue altogether). Matfield will provide decent ball at the lineout and with Bissie back it will improve IMO. Scrumtime is difficult, Jannie is a bit of a liability. I'd be inclined to bring on vd Merwe sooner rather than later.

Backline - Its slow in the midfield. When you see a youthful Serfontein being outgassed by Ashley-Cooper you know he's short of a few steps. Then add into the mix an ageing JDV and you have a little problem. Hendricks is youthful and Hougaard offers a lot of pace off the ruck but not with his pass.

Rucktime - I think SA may struggle here. Without Flip, Louw and Vermeulen I think they will struggle on the floor against NZ  and a reason why I think Bissie was brought back into the fold over Strauss. If Burger plays he needs to up his intensity and perhaps leave his ball carrying obligations to be the 1st man on the scene securing possession.

NZ - They are clearly a better side but can they keep the intensity up knowing the RC is already in the bag? The boks will be up for this big time, its a one off match, they don't need a record number of tries and they can secure their objective by winning by kicks only if necessary. NZ rarely drop the intensity but perhaps they may go to ellis park saying... how can we top last year???

For my 10 pence worth I think SA will look to strangle NZ and grind out a win..... but with Alberts, Louw, Flip, Du Preez, Vermeulen and no real centre solution at either 12 or 13 I think it may be a bridge too far. AUS were able to exploit their weakness in defence in both games and a more settled side (i.e. well rounded, strong upfront, backline and bench) like ENG in my opinion would turn over this current bok XV.... let alone NZ.

The boks with their best players all fit are a good match for NZ and at home would be expected to win... but with say 6-7 players out I think its unlikely.

It will be a devastating loss also. They have lost 5 matches in a row and if you take out the win in 2011 when NZ sent a 2nd XV to SA, they haven't beaten NZ since 2009. Crazy when you think they have near been the 2nd best team in the world for the duration.

This is such an important match for the boks, said it before... if they can't beat them at home now NZ might as well book their RWC final place as with no victories in this RWC cycle over NZ, how can they get the confidence and belief to win the most important one????

bizarre from the ABs to keep turning down the three points IMO: 11 pts isn't insurmountable, and the first (easy) kick they turned down was with about 25 minutes left or so. Plenty of time to build a score surely?

well that was soft! game on!

They just scored seven mate. ABs back themselves to the tilt, with good reason

Wasn't expecting to tune in and see that score. Waynes Barnes having a good game?

Always good to put a 34-year old man on the field as your fresh legs.

that's a lovely try.

What a game this has been.


Great start from the boks, unbelievable response from the All Blacks, what a 10 minutes left!

Our bench has capitulated. Completely copulated.

Ooft that looks horrible

Can't believe he is on his feet - that looked horrendous!

eugh! poor lad!

Car crash stuff. Think this has eclipsed last year's match.

I think last year's was better. Slightly less errors and more counter-attacking in that one. Today's game has been another classic though.

I think that should be a penalty.

Don't think it should be a yellow, he was falling from the first tackle

Similar to Liam Williams' offence on Hendricks in the summer. Nice to see a bit of consistency. I don't think either was a YC offence.

An all black failing the IQ test

The Du Plesssis bro's liked that one. Wonder if ABs can once again find another gear?

Very harsh penalty but can understand it. Was happening so fast in real speed that it's not easy to spot. ABs had yet another turnover and are now trailing by 2 points. Game on

Messam's a lucky boy to still be on the pitch there, but how about that for a pressure kick from Lambie!

NZ seemingly creating an overlap a lot.

Good game. I enjoyed that

Wow

Hmmm, was that awarded the wrong way?

Well done Boks

Good result for SA, now Biltong will see reason for living again...

We Win!!

Lambie could have played for Scotland.

He clearly made the wrong decision!

Well done Boks. Bet Meyer is happy Hansen's fetching the drinks this time. You got the feeling SA could draw a penalty in the last few mins and that's what transpired. Kudos to Lambie for having the stones to kick such a pressure penalty.

NZ's cleaning out and ball security was woeful. SA's presence over the ball was fantastic and they couldn't be moved. Vermeulen again outstanding and outplayed Read who was relativey anonymous. McCaw was a powerhouse over the ball though and got back some of SA's advantage. Hougaard's stutter step before passing gets SA behind the 8 ball though and it was only the brilliant physicality of their forwards that negated the advantage. Savea was close to the best player on the pitch-brilliant workrate and again the sheer power was something to behold.

Cue the English papers-NZ's fecked, streak's over, all over the hill, may not as well turn up next year...

Again well done SA. Great match. Barnes cocked up a few times but no one side benefited more than the other so that's the best you can hope for really.

Well done both sides congratulations to the Boks as well not unexpected at least by
me.The only difference a conversion of a try,losing bonus point for the AB`s the
end of there run.

Now the drums will beat aura gone,AB`s in decline,McCaw finished need to get back on the
wagon.Now for AB`s clean sweep the rest of there games.incredibly there first 4Ns loss .

Putting paid to the rumour that Wayne Barnes is a homer ref - now confirmed. A penalty milked by the crowd. Apalling.

That was nerve recking. Subs didn't have the same impact as last week. The Pollard and Mohoje gamble is also looking like it is working out for Meyer. Vermeulen is a monster, as is Savea, I can see why Hansen made that comments. Still haven't scored against the Springboks though, but those breaks is real class.

Savea was immense. Almost cartoonish.

One thing I was very worried about was Barrett's feet when he got the ball. Standing still. He's better than that-needed to run onto the ball and draw people to him. Can't remember him running. Retallick was missed by NZ. Thoughts on Fekitoa? Other than hold the ball in two f**king hands? Well done Savea for backing up Hansen's claims with a game like that. Never got the ball close enough to the line to do the damage he did elsewhere on the field. Hendricks will not be happy.

Richard wrote:Putting paid to the rumour that Wayne Barnes is a homer ref - now confirmed. A penalty milked by the crowd. Apalling.

Yes that was a bit milked. But it also happened previously in the other games against us.

on a side-note, I thought Meyer made some strange substitutions, particularly when he made several around the 50-55 minute mark, which gave NZ some much-needed momentum. I'm also still not convinced by NZ turning down three points on numerous occasions. Yes they got a try eventually, but it took them about 10 minutes I think (first kickable penalty they went for the scrum was on about 55 mins, they scored their second try on about 65 mins), and in that time they earned themselves three kickable penalties. Of course it doesn't work that way, but if they knock over those three they draw rather than lose.

Anyway, minor details, thought it was a cracking game of rugby. Totally agree with disney that NZ were poor at securing their own ball, and McCaw was too often on a one-man mission for them at the breakdown. Conrad Smith is sheer class, while Savea is a beast (though he lost the ball in contact a couple of times today and made some poor choices, so not his best game IMO). Not convinced by Fekitoa though, and the rest of the backrow was fairly anonymous.

For SA, Vermeulen was immense throughout, and in general their backrow was excellent. Pollard looks a really great prospect at FH (thank goodness they've finally ditched Steyn, good player though he was), while Le Roux is a really classy presence too.

I can see why one would be a little upset by that, but what would you have the ref do when he sees that replay? Pretend it didn't happen?

FerN wrote:

Richard wrote:Putting paid to the rumour that Wayne Barnes is a homer ref - now confirmed. A penalty milked by the crowd. Apalling.

Yes that was a bit milked.  But it also happened previously in the other games against us.

eh? I thought it was a very clear penalty, Messam goes in with no arms and catches him high (albeit that Burger is ducking into it somewhat). Lucky IMO not to be yellow-carded. You could argue SA had already benefited from the advantage though, they had made 30+ meters upfield before being turned over after the incident.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

FerN wrote:

Richard wrote:Putting paid to the rumour that Wayne Barnes is a homer ref - now confirmed. A penalty milked by the crowd. Apalling.

Yes that was a bit milked.  But it also happened previously in the other games against us.

eh? I thought it was a very clear penalty, Messam goes in with no arms and catches him high (albeit that Burger is ducking into it somewhat). Lucky IMO not to be yellow-carded. You could argue SA had already benefited from the advantage though, they had made 30+ meters upfield before being turned over after the incident.

The refs missed it, all of them. It was played on the screen which the ref saw after the stadium made a fuss. It is a clear penalty yes, but no ref saw it.

Hmm, JDV rushed the line twice that created the space for two All Black tries.  Habana also does that.  Something the Boks will need to look into.

Also the moment we started with our up and unders the pressure started to build on us.

I couldn't hear the commentary that much in the Woolshed but in hindsight it was a 50 50 tackle and a 50 50 way to get the penalty reviewed. But that's rugby-sometimes you get the 50 50s and sometimes you don't. I'm accepting we were second best without finding a reason to get angry. I've got enough to be p!ssed at Barnes anyway

The way Meyer is talking about the 9s that have played since Pienaar was absent sounds like we might actually have Ruan at Ulster during the November internationals once he's fit again! Happy days...

"I've been worried about 9s but suddenly Hougie came through and we was brilliant."

"Truly believe Cobus Reinach has a great future ahead"

Both quotes from Meyer at todays press conference.

disneychilly wrote:...Cue the English papers-NZ's fecked, streak's over, all over the hill, may not as well turn up next year..,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection (Sorry, couldn't resist it)

Amazing comeback by the All Blacks. Having seen it happen before - notably against Ireland - I was fully prepared to see them go on to win once reclaiming the lead.

It was a typical 3N/4N`s match Home advantage on the veldt being crucial for a long
range goal kick.Hansen to some point was right IF the tight 5 don`t set the platform
the loose forwards suffer.Retalick and a specialist back up for him was a big loss.

This was like the old matchups pre 2008 win at home,away versus the weakest team
pick up what you can on the road,a wonderful match well done again both sides.

Tbh, I'd all but given up, really. Bit like watching a Bolt race, no matter how sluggish the start, you sorta accept that once the legs reach full stride, theres no other possible result. I. didn't even think a win was a possibility once the ABs cut it down to four.

Ha hell I knew there'd be a twist in the tail at the end-that's why my head dropped when Barrett missed the last conversion.

I was thinking about Ireland too-having been at the game-but SA wanted it more and deserved the win.

Both sides benefited from Barnes not knowing what a forward pass is-you'd think he'd have learned something hey!

FerN wrote:

Mad for Chelsea wrote:

FerN wrote:

Richard wrote:Putting paid to the rumour that Wayne Barnes is a homer ref - now confirmed. A penalty milked by the crowd. Apalling.

Yes that was a bit milked.  But it also happened previously in the other games against us.

eh? I thought it was a very clear penalty, Messam goes in with no arms and catches him high (albeit that Burger is ducking into it somewhat). Lucky IMO not to be yellow-carded. You could argue SA had already benefited from the advantage though, they had made 30+ meters upfield before being turned over after the incident.

The refs missed it, all of them.  It was played on the screen which the ref saw after the stadium made a fuss.  It is a clear penalty yes, but no ref saw it.

It's awful if the crowd is going to be allowed to referee a match. New low point. No wonder Hansen gets into the refs each week. Unsurprising the the all blacks run was brought to an end by their ultimate nemesis : feckless English ref.

Not the first time a crowd influences a referee to take a look at the big screen, we finally got our crowd to get it done.

Fact is, the off the ball stuff is going on all the time. Splaying something on the big screen for the crowd to react to is just pure cynical orchestration.

Well done boks. Couldn't watch the game and still can't because there's been a flippin power cut in Auckland all night, grrrr!! Sounded like a close one worthy of the fixture. NZ teams have been done by late pens this year. ABs twice, Crusaders in the Super final, ah well.